Svein Sundby, Geir Odd Johansen and Jan Erik Stiansen. ESSAS Annual Science Meeting 30 August 1 September, 2010 Grand Hotel, Reykjavik, Iceland

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1 Svein Sundby, Geir Odd Johansen and Jan Erik Stiansen ESSAS Annual Science Meeting 30 August 1 September, 2010 Grand Hotel, Reykjavik, Iceland

2 Temperature of the Barents Sea m depth Meeting place between arctic and boreal species 200 m depth

3 More than 200 species from 70 families have be en registered Boreal vs. arctic species Pelagic vs. benthic species Several of them have parts of their life cycle out side the Barents Sea 3 species have a more dominating role in the ecosystem

4 Cod Capelin (young) Herring Arcto-boreal Arctic Arcto-boreal

5 The diet of capelin

6 Themisto libellula Arctic Amphipodes - important prey species for capelin Themisto abyssorum Arctoboreal Dalpadado et al. (2001) IJMS

7 Gjøsæter et al. (2002) IJMS

8 The diet of young herring

9 Herring Capelin 1984 Overlap between capelin larvae and herring 1-year-old and older. Herring 1993 Capelin Gjøsæter and Bogstad (1998) Fisheries Research

10 Gjøsæter and Bogstad (1998) Fisheries Research

11 The diet of cod

12 Modeled Arcto-Norwegian 0-group cod (September 2008) Vikebø (2009)

13 Ambient water masses, temperature and main prey species of first-year Arcto-Norwegian cod C. finmarchicus T. inermis PELAGIC JUVENILES

14 PFI Partial stomach Fullness Index (PFI) for cod in the Barents Sea (January-April) Length of cod (cm) Bogstad and Gjøsæter (2001) Fisheries Research

15 Dalpadado et al. (2001) IJMS

16 Barents Sea capelin Ushakov and Prozorkevich (2002) IJMS

17 Nakken (2008)

18 The diet of cod Larval and pelagic juvenile stages before settlement (< 9 cm): From C. finmarchicus to krill (boreal species). From 2-group fish (> 20 cm): Large diversity of prey: Capelin dominates in capelin-rich years Substituted by shrimp, krill and amphipodes in capelin-poor years From > 90 cm, the king : Larger fish.

19 Trophic level Cod Energy flow Top-down controls Herring Capelin Larval and pelagic juvenile Cod Larval and juvenile Herring Larval and juvenile Capelin Krill Amphipodes Boreal zooplankton Arctic zooplankton Boreal Ecosystem Characters Arctic

20 Climate change and changes in species distributions

21 Year-to -year variation Decadal variation Multidecadal variation Antropogenic? 5 o Temperature [ C]

22 Cod and herring Capelin

23 Multidecadal climate oscillations and impacts on spawning areas of Arcto-Norwegian cod Warm periods - Displacement towards northeast - Increasing spawning biomass Cold periods: - Displacement towards southwest - Decreasing spawning biomass 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2, Sundby and Nakken (2008) IJMS

24 Longitude (Cartesian x, unit: 25 km) Impacts of the recent warming on 0-group fish spatial distribution Centre of distribution (east) of 0-group cod, haddock, herring, and capelin Easterly shift in centre of distribution during the period Magnitude of shift: Cod: 120 km Herring: 160 km Haddock: 90 km Capelin: 220 km Johansen and Stiansen (2009) Unpubl.

25 70 N 70 N Centre of gravity >45 cm Centre of gravity, cod > 45 cm, N Ice cover - southern limit, N Southern limit of ice cover 75 N 75 N 10 E 30 E 50 E February E 50 E Year February Johansen and Stiansen (2009) Unpubl.

26 Some conclusions Spatial distribution and productivity of the boreal cod and herring are impacted by multidecadal climate variations. Too short time series for the arctic capelin to conclude, but indications of similar response with respect to spatial distribution and opposite response with respect to productivity. Adult cod benefit from high capelin events by increased growth (and egg production) - but cod have alternatives. Some examples of top-down controls: 1.High capelin events reduce the abundance of zooplankton prey. 2. High abundance of young herring reduces abundance of larval capelin and capelin recruitment. 3. From the Norwegian Sea: Emerging evidence of high abundance of herring graze down C. finmarchicus.

27 Future climate change in the Barents Sea Temperature climatology Temperature increase in 50 years C. finmarchicus to overwinter into the Arctic? Capelin spawning from Finmark to Novaja Semlya? 20C3M A1B - 20C3M

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