MARKET TRENDS

Transcription

1 FARMER S REPORT MARKET TRENDS This notice is subject to change. Information printed is based on last received market data. Subject to change without notification US Foods, Inc All rights reserved.

2 BEEF Cash cattle traded last week mostly between $117 to $118/cwt, moving $3 lower from the previous week s range of sales. This week feeders are asking $ , but packers are only bidding at $114/cwt. Consequently, no transactions have been made as of the Wednesday close. Last week s harvest came in at 636K head, and of that, 512K were of the steer/heifer variety. GRINDS 81/19 FINE GRIND: Ground Beef was up just slightly last week, and is expected to continue this pattern. GROUND CHUCK: Ground Chuck fell just modestly, but is also expected to gain strength going forward, as the packers have a lot of product pre-sold out front, and the chuck market traditionally finds strength going into the winter months. ROUNDS PEELED KNUCKLES: Knuckles declined modestly last week. We still believe that we will see an unstable market during December. INSIDE ROUNDS: Inside rounds came in flat last week. The market continues to be unstable, and is expected to ease lower through mid-december, but is expected to possibly find some support, as we move beyond the holidays and into the winter months. BOTTOM ROUND FLATS: Bottom Round Flats reported moderate decreases across all grades. The market continues to be unstable, and is expected to ease lower through mid-december as well. EYES OF ROUND: All grades reported modest declines, with demand slipping. The market remains vulnerable to possible declines into mid-december. LOINS STRIPS: With packers done for the most part with their holiday needs of tenderloin production, strips have started to come back up in value, as the packers worked diligently to move them out in lieu of them being produced at a ratio of almost 2.5:1. Look for them to hold steady to firm for the next few weeks. TOP BUTTS: Top butts saw modest gains across all grades last week as well, and they too are showing signs of strength so far this week, but only on very light trading. Downward trends could be on the horizon, as the chain cutters could be close to completing their business for the year. TENDERLOINS: Choice tenderloins have started the seasonal downward decline, while Select product was able to hold steady. We anticipate this downward trend to continue going forward. RIBS RIBEYES: No doubt the rib market for the most part is done, as the last of the retail orders are shipping this weekend. Choice and upper 2/3rd product for the most part was steady money last week, as was the Select light product. However, the Ungraded product and Select heavy ribs have started to decline, and the rest of the complex will be sure to follow in the coming weeks. CHUCKS CHUCK ROLLS: Chuck rolls reported slight to modest increases across all grades last week. These very well could be near the bottom, as the packers have a lot of ground chuck forward-sold, with deliveries soon, which should lend support to this cut. TERES MAJORS: Teres Majors came in showing modest increases last week across all grades. These could continue to see instability as we move into the winter months. BRISKETS: All grades of briskets saw slight to modest gains last week, and so far this week they are reflecting a similar pattern. We do expect more demand across all grades, as forward sales begin to ship in front of St. Patrick s Day to the processors. Brisket is expected to hold steady to modestly increasing prices through December and into January. THIN MEATS BALL TIPS: Choice ball tips reported down modestly last week, while Select saw a slight increase in value. In December we expect to see steady to slightly firming prices here. FLAP MEAT: Choice flap meat fell modestly last week, while the Select grade took a moderate increase. We look for this to hold steady to slightly softening going forward. FLANK: Choice flanks reported a modest increase last week, while Select reported a slight decline. The current week has them showing strength through 3 days of trading. SKIRT STEAK: Outside skirt reported slightly higher from the previous week, with average demand. The market will remain unstable as we move into the winter months. 2

3 PORK The USDA estimated slaughter level for last week was 2.53 MM hogs, up over 3% higher than last year at this time and on par with the previous week. The surplus of live hog supplies continues to impact the market, with hog weights still up over 5 lbs. on average over last year at this time. Packers are not willing to take on the extra hogs and push their production levels to maximum capacity until hog prices move lower. Official pork export information was released last week for the month of October. Exports for the month of October were over 9% higher than last year, with Mexico continuing to be the largest destination, and considerable growth also noted for Korea. As a reminder, slaughter levels will be reduced in observation of the upcoming holidays, which will tighten pork supply and likely provide support for elevated pork prices. LOINS Pricing on the loin complex remained relatively soft last week, with the bone-in loins trading flat and the boneless loins making their seasonal move higher. Both loins are bouncing around very near to what many would consider their lowest pricing point of the year, due to seasonally weak demand, as the November-December timeframe tends to prioritize other cuts and proteins for the holidays. Current pricing is considered to be a great value on the loin complex, so demand is forecasted to kick in rapidly especially at the retail level which should begin driving prices higher. TENDERS Tenderloin prices continued to remain unsettled, as they dipped lower last week and remain very near to their annual lows. As tenderloin prices flirt with seasonally low pricing, it s only a matter of time before the retail channel steps in and begins to promote tenderloins, especially for New Year s and Valentine s Day ads. BUTTS Pork butt prices eased slightly last week due to increasing supply. Retailers have shifted focus to other COP categories for the holidays, so pork butt prices are currently being supported by export and foodservice channels. At this point, however, price is unsettled because butt prices are still 15% higher than last year, and another wave of export demand is scheduled to kick in, so pricing could head in either direction. RIBS Pricing on the rib complex moved lower across the board last week on both backribs and spareribs. While packers continue to allocate a large percentage of their rib production to frozen packages for next year, some of those commitments are being met and forcing fresh supply back out to the market, especially on the spareribs. Backrib prices are expected to continue teetering within a couple pennies range for the next 2-3 weeks before making their seasonal move higher. Typically the New Year marks the timeframe for sparerib prices to begin their annual climb higher, but with prices currently above normal, there may be a few more weeks of uncertainty on the spareribs. BELLIES/BACON Belly prices continue to push counter-seasonally higher, as fearful buyers stock their freezers with bellies to avoid the volatility that became the headline in the bacon world last year. This shift in demand has driven current belly prices 40% higher than last year at this time, and has accomplished a 30% increase to freezer inventories. Despite the fact that belly prices begin to move seasonally higher over the next 60 days, it is very possible that the current demand frenzy may ease and take some short-term pressure off bacon prices. Nonetheless, bellies still remain an extremely volatile commodity. HAMS Ham prices shot up significantly last week due to last-minute holiday demand from processors. This is the last week that processors can buy raw hams and get them processed in time for the holidays, so it is very possible that ham prices could crumble on any given day. Once ham prices start moving lower, it will likely happen rapidly over a few weeks. TRIMMINGS Prices on pork trimmings were mixed last week, with fat 42% trimmings trading flat and lean 72% trimmings trading slightly higher. Retail ads for breakfast sausage continue to support trimming prices, especially over the holidays. As well, processors continue to buy product for the freezers as they focus on out-front needs. As mentioned above, heavier hogs are coming to market, which is generating additional trimmings and should pressure prices slightly lower. PICNICS Picnics prices have been trading generally flat for the past 3 weeks in a row, due to steady demand, but last week prices were accelerated higher as last-minute demand for the holidays increased. Bone-in picnics can be processed and smoked as an alternative to ham, so several regional retailers are featuring picnics for the holidays. In addition, bone-in picnic demand should stay relatively supported during the winter months, as retailers feature them for the roast season. 3

4 TURKEY BONELESS, SKINLESS TURKEY BREASTS The turkey breast market was flat this week. We should expect this market to trend upward to flat for the near term. WHOLE FROZEN TURKEYS Whole turkeys were slightly down this week, as there seems to be ample supply. We expect this market to trend downward to flat in the near term. CHICKEN BROILER-TYPE EGGS SET IN THE UNITED STATES UP 1% Hatcheries in the United States weekly program set 221 million eggs in incubators during the week ending December 9, 2017, up 1% from this time a year ago. Hatcheries in the 19-State weekly program set 212 million eggs in incubators during the week ending December 9, 2017, up less than 1% from a year earlier. Average hatchability for chicks hatched during the week in the United States was 83%. Average hatchability is calculated by dividing chicks hatched during the week by eggs set three weeks earlier. BROILER-TYPE CHICKS PLACED IN THE UNITED STATES UP 2% Broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 184 million chicks for meat production during the week ending December 9, 2017, up less than 2% from this time a year ago. Broiler growers in the 19-State weekly program placed 176 million chicks for meat production during the week ending December 9, 2017, up 2% from the year earlier. Cumulative placements from the weeks ending January 7, 2017, through December 9, 2017, for the United States were 8.83 billion. Cumulative placements were up 2% from the same period a year earlier. BONELESS, SKINLESS BREASTS & CHICKEN TENDERLOINS The jumbo and medium breast markets, and sized fresh and frozen markets were all flat this week, and we expect these markets to trend down to flat in the near term. The tenderloin market was slightly up this week, as retailers are replenishing their frozen inventories. We expect this market to trend upward to flat in the near term. WINGS The small and medium wing markets were flat this week, and receiving various degrees of interest. We expect these markets to trend flat to down in the near term. The jumbo wing market was slightly down this week, as oversupply continues to be an issue. BONELESS, SKINLESS THIGHS The market was flat this week, as both domestic and export demand has slowed. We expect this market to trend down to flat in the near term. WHOLE CHICKEN & CUT-UP PARTS Small bird demand is still very strong, and supply continues to be tight. This trend will continue for the near term, and possibly the remainder of

5 COMMODITY OIL SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL The soybean complex closed mixed last week, with Argentine weather forecasts continuing to dominate the market s direction. Soybean and soybean meal prices were sharply higher early in the week, but gave up all of those gains as the 11-to-15-day Argentine weather forecast turned a bit wetter. Soybean oil prices continued to lag the market movement under the weight of the oil/meal spread unwinding. SOY: On Tuesday, the International Trade Commission announced their final ruling that biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia harm U.S. producers, ensuring that anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties will remain in effect for at least five years. Expect both countries to appeal this ruling to the World Trade Organization moving forward. After a meeting on Thursday, nine U.S. lawmakers stated that President Trump is open to reforming the country s biofuels policy, if it can be done in a way that protects jobs in both the refining and agricultural industries. The group is scheduled to meet again next week. Expect a more sideways trade into year s end, before prices should start working higher in January. CANOLA Statistics Canada raised their 2017 canola crop production estimate to million metric tons, up from the MMT projected in September. PALM OIL Palm oil prices dropped to 5-month lows this week on weaker soybean oil prices, a stronger ringgit (the local Malaysian currency), and ideas that global supplies continue to grow. Palm oil inventories in Malaysia are forecast to rise to the highest level in nearly two years when their official data is released next week. Palm oil exports have slowed since India raised their import taxes a few weeks back. Indonesia s palm oil production is expected to grow 7% this year, according to the USDA. US EXPORTS Total soybean oil commitments are currently running 53% below last year s levels. SEASONALS There is a strong seasonal tendency for soybean oil prices to rally from November through March. DAIRY BUTTER Cream for butter production is becoming limited due to the demand for Class II products. Demand remains steady, but inventory is balanced. Pricing should remain flat to down over the next 30 days. CHEESE CME spot cheese price moves were mixed last week, with blocks dipping below the $1.50 mark for the first time since May, while barrels shot higher. Cheese processors are taking in milk with hesitancy, as inventories continue to grow while markets are declining. Demand continues to be fair. SHELL EGGS US shell egg prices rallied to the highest levels seen since the 2015 holiday season. As expected, the market is softening this week, as retail demand has slowed and inventories are able to catch up following the heavy seasonal demand. Expect a steady to down market as we approach January. MILK & CREAM Milk output is steady to lower across most of the country. Cream supplies are steady in the Midwest, while they vary from tight to plentiful in the West, depending on location. For December, FMO markets were all down except for Class I skim. California markets experienced decreases in all markets. Overall pricing should be flat to down across product lines. 5

6 SEAFOOD SHRIMP, DOMESTIC (WHITES AND BROWNS): Shell-on white and brown domestic shrimp pricing has turned stable because of the holiday season. Most productions are beginning to shut down until after the first of the year. The prediction for the first quarter is for inventory to be tight and prices to increase. DOMESTIC PUDS: Inventory positions are now reported tighter than initially thought from last week. Prices are rising, and they will continue to do so. SHRIMP, IMPORTED (BLACK TIGER AND WHITES): Production on tigers continues to be very low. Farmed Asian White shrimp are showing some signs of weakening, but the feeling here is that inventory levels in the US are causing vendors to lower prices. Overseas pricing has not gone lower. Latin American Whites remain steady. (MEXICAN BROWNS AND WHITES): The new-season production is underway. Prices inched up with recent bad weather. We are a little more than halfway through the harvest. While the catch is better than last year, we are hoping for a strong finish. CATFISH DOMESTIC: Production of farmed domestic catfish has started to pick up, and we are starting to see more inventory and some weakening in prices. This trend should last until the end of the year. IMPORTED: We are seeing stable pricing on imported catfish. New-season fish are starting to hit the US. The long-term outlook is still uncertain. SALMON ATLANTIC FARMED SALMON: There is a lot of pressure on the fresh market with weather issues and holiday demand. We are seeing shipping issues coming out of Norway and Scotland. Overall demand is high for the season. Frozen portions are in good supply and pricing is steady. MAHI MAHI Fishing has begun slowly in Peru, but Ecuador is really off to a great start. Most of the fish at this time are smaller fish, and not large enough yet to cut into frozen portions. Outlook is good, with the expectation of a better season than in 2016 and We will have a better idea once large offshore boats start to report their catch and land fish. SCALLOPS SEA: Pricing is firming on domestic product. Days fishing at sea per government regulations will be the next issue in regard to rising prices. We are seeing fresh product fluctuate with the catch. BAY: Pricing has turned upward on low production and tight inventory. This could last for a while. TILAPIA Inventory in the US seems to be good, with pricing starting to stabilize. We should see some consistency through Q1 of PANGASIUS Pricing overseas continues to move up, and we are starting to see higher prices in the US now. The new USDA guidelines are adding to overseas cost. Inventory overseas is now starting to tighten up, as China has become a bigger buyer. Out of stocks will be the norm, depending on item and vendor. 7-9-oz fillets will be the biggest challenge. WHITEFISH COMPLEX COD: The market for Atlantic and Pacific cod continues to see stronger pricing. It is expected that cod pricing will increase throughout Q4. We also anticipate there will be shortages on Pacific cod, due to poor fishing and quota cuts. POLLOCK: The fishery for Pacific pollock has produced only smaller fish, just 2-4 oz. fillets. This could cause an inventory issue for frozen loins if they don t start catching larger fish. Larger fillets of 4-6 and 6-8 oz. are very tight. HADDOCK: Pricing on skin-on fillets and skinless loins is starting to see increases. Even with the increases, we are seeing haddock as a great value. As cod goes, so will the haddock market. Things definitely look like they will heat up in the coming weeks. FLOUNDER: Product from China will remain tight, as the catch has been very slow. The Argentine season is underway now, with inventories slowly making their way into the states. TUNA, YELLOWFIN (FROZEN STEAKS & LOINS): Tuna is fairly stable in pricing and inventories are good. SWORDFISH The catch in Central and South America has been slow, with mostly smaller fish being caught. We could see higher pricing as this fish hits the market. 6-oz. portions are in good supply. Ask your sales rep about this size fish, as the yield is better than industry standard. KING CRAB (RED & GOLDEN): Test pots on red king crab have been very low. The biomass is not at a level where we will see a large amount of product. We feel the quota will be low this year and create higher pricing. We are seeing an increase on 16/20 Russian product now as well. CRABMEAT (BLUE & RED, PASTEURIZED): Blue swimming crab pricing will be taking further declines for next week. We do expect to see further declines as we go forward. Red swimming crab pricing is stable for the next week. Mexico blue crab season is in full production with stable pricing. Inventory positions are very good at this time. SNOW CRAB ALASKAN: The quota for 2017/2018 was announced recently, and we will see about a 3-million-pound reduction in this year s quota. We are not near a time to start quoting price yet. CANADIAN: Fishing is now over in Canada. There seems to be good inventory on 5-8s and 8-up clusters. Larger 10-ups and 12-ups are very tight. We are hearing that many of the Gulf State casinos are only serving all-you-can-eat snow crab on weekends, and some are charging a premium. This could put additional crab in the market, but right now it is a wait-and-see game. LOBSTER TAILS NORTH AMERICAN LOBSTER: The Maine season has wrapped up. Tails are in very bad shape. The category as a whole was very short, and with not much being produced, they will be an issue from now until May/June of We do expect to see pricing surge and inventory firm as we go forward. LOBSTER TAILS WARM WATER: Supply on warm water tails is in a good place; however, pricing is heating up as the shortages in the cold water market continue to put pressure on larger-sized warm water tails. LOBSTER MEAT: The Maine season has wrapped up. As inventory depletes, we will see prices rise accordingly. 6

7 PRODUCE Both the asparagus and green bean markets are on the rise as we get closer to the holidays. The tomato gap is in full motion right now, with Mexico being the main supplier for the country. Florida s harvest is starting off slow and isn t expected to be ramped up to 100% until the new year. Also, both Mexico and Florida have been hit with a cold front, causing freeze warnings to hit the growing fields. This directly impacts several commodities: Tomatoes, Peppers, Cucumbers and Squash. The wildfires in California are also causing some problems for Avocados, Lemons, Tomatoes and Oranges. Vendors are reporting the fires have not reached their fields yet, but the main struggle is getting trucks in to pick up product. The heavy smoke and road closures are causing several disruptions. The smoke and ash from the fires have reached down to the Salinas area, which could impact some of their crop. KEY Anticipating an up market Anticipating a steady market Anticipating a down market VEGETABLES POTATOES Russet: The market on russets is mixed this week. Product out of Washington/Oregon is up, while product out of Idaho is down. Demand is expected to pick back up with the holidays around the corner. Supply and quality are good. Reds: The red potato market is steady this week out of all growing regions. Good supply and quality are being reported. Yellows: The markets out of both Florida and California are steady. Quality is good, with moderate supply and demand. CABBAGE Round Green: The cabbage market is mixed this week, with moderate supply and demand. Cabbage out of Western/Central New York, and San Antonio/Wintergarden, Texas, is flat. Oxnard District in California is down. South Georgia is up. LEAF LETTUCE Green Leaf: The green leaf market is flat this week, with normal supply and moderate demand. Romaine: The romaine lettuce market is flat this week, with normal supply and moderate demand. Increase in demand is expected due to the holiday season. ICEBERG LETTUCE The iceberg lettuce market is up this week, with normal supply and moderate demand. An increase in demand is expected due to the holiday season. GARLIC Chinese peeled garlic pricing continues to come down as the market is heavy with supply. There is more product available for sale than there is demand. Part of the issue is a shrinking customer base, as many chefs and foodservice distributors will not accept it. There are fewer places to move it when the market becomes flooded, as everyone is chasing the same distributors. Demand is steady for California peeled garlic. Supply is good and there have been no quality issues to report. 7 ONIONS The jumbo yellow onion market is mixed this week. Product out of Washington/Oregon is steady, while product out of Idaho is down. Supply and quality are good. CHILE PEPPERS The chile pepper market is steady this week. Supplies continue to be on the lighter side for jalapeños and poblanos. Quality is being reported as good. CILANTRO The cilantro market is mixed this week. Product out of Imperial, Coachella, Arizona and Mexico is down, while product out of Oxnard is up. Supplies are steady with good demand and quality. CUCUMBERS Cucumbers have rebounded due to supply tightening up. Both Mexico and the East Coast have been hit with a cold front, delaying the harvest. Warmer weather is expected next week, which will help the harvests. Quality could be impacted by the cold weather. SQUASH Yellow Squash: Squash has jumped up due to supplies tightening up. A cold front hit the farms in Mexico and Florida, causing a delay in harvest. The weather is expected to remain cold through the end of the week, which could pressure the supply issue. Quality remains fair due to the cold weather. Zucchini: Zucchinis are flat for the week. The cold front has also impacted the zucchini market, causing a delay in harvesting. Quality is still a concern, with heavy scarring being seen across the country. GREEN BEANS The green bean market is up this week out of all growing regions, including machine-picked product out of Florida, imported haricot verts and hand-picked green beans out of Mexico. This is to be expected with the holidays right around the corner, with demand expected to increase. There is a wide range of quality and prices. EGGPLANT Eggplant supply remains light, causing the price to be flat. Coachella supply remains light, while Mexico is ramping up more. Volume is expected to increase over the next couple of weeks. Quality remains fair. BELL PEPPERS Green: Green bell peppers are flat this week. Green bell supplies are tightening up due to the cold front. This is due to last until the weekend, and could delay harvest until warmer weather hits. Red: Red bell peppers are up this week, as supplies tighten. A cold front has hit the fields in Mexico, causing a harvest delay. The cold weather is expected to last until the end of the week. Quality could become an issue, depending on how the product reacts to the cold weather.

8 PRODUCE TOMATOES Rounds: Round tomato prices continue to go up this week. A cold front has hit some of the farms in Mexico and Florida, causing harvesting issues. The alreadytight supply has just gotten tighter. Smaller-size tomatoes like 5x5 or 5x6 saw a larger price jump than 6x6 or 6x7. Supplies are expected to remain tight through the end of the year until Florida gets ramped up to 100%. Quality remains a concern more so now that it is all coming from one region. Cherry: Cherry tomato prices have dropped again. Demand, which previously came from grape tomatoes, has moved back now that the prices are close. Quality remains fair to good in both regions. Grape: Grape tomato prices have gone back up. Demand that moved to cherry tomatoes has now gone back to grapes, causing supply to tighten up. New fields in Florida are due to start harvesting in the upcoming week, which should relieve some supply issues. Florida prices are currently higher than product out of Mexico. Quality remains good even though supply struggles. Romas: Romas are up this week, as the supply gap continues. The cold front, which has affected rounds and dry veg, has impacted romas as well. Supplies are expected to be tight until the end of the year, while Florida ramps up slowly. Quality continues to be a concern even more so with the cold weather hitting. Product crossing through Nogales has seen a higher price jump to match pricing in other regions. CARROTS The carrot market is mixed this week. Product out of California and Mexico is down. There is better supply with the new crop, especially on jumbo and rainbow. Good quality is being reported. Demand is also good. CELERY The celery market is up out of both Oxnard and Santa Maria regions. Supply is light to moderate, and demand is also moderate. GREEN ONIONS The green onion market is mixed this week. Domestic product out of South Carolina is steady, while Mexican product is down. Supplies are good, with increased volumes coming from Mexico. Demand is moderate, but should ramp up as we get closer to the holidays. CAULIFLOWER The cauliflower market is up. Holiday demand and harvesting ahead of schedule have led to lighter supplies. Supplies are expected to remain on the lighter side, with some vendors holding to averages. ASPARAGUS The asparagus market is up this week, which is to be expected with the holidays getting closer. Supplies are good, but there is a wide range of quality and price. Imported product out of Peru is up. BROCCOLI The broccoli market is up this week, with good supply and very good demand due to the holiday season. Quality is very good. TROPICAL PINEAPPLES Pineapple supplies will remain good through the end of the year. Fruit continues to trend large. Volumes on 5/6 cts. are high, while there are lesser volumes available on 7/8 cts. Overall quality in the marketplace is good through the end of the year. BANANAS Supplies on conventional bananas are expected to decline for the last two weeks of the year, and then will continue to be light through mid-january. This is typically the time of the year where temperatures start dropping in the tropics, and this change in temperatures delays the physiological processes in the plant. Expect similar conditions for organics and plantains. AVOCADOS Avocado prices continue to go up due to tight supply. Mexico continues to shut down fields each week to keep supplies tight. The Mexican government has stepped in and started to gain control of one of the big growing regions to help with the relief. Demand remains strong, even with higher market prices. #2 product is still less than 10% of the current harvest. MELONS CANTALOUPE The cantaloupe market is up this week, with moderate supply and good demand. Cantaloupe sizes are trending towards the bigger sizes. 12s and 15s are in very limited supply. HONEYDEW The honeydew market is up. 6s are up with moderate supply and good demand. There is very limited availability of 5s, which are up this week as well. 8

9 PRODUCE BERRIES RASPBERRIES Raspberries transitioned from excellent size to moderate size. STRAWBERRIES The strawberry market is mixed this week. Strawberries out of Oxnard (med) are flat. Central Florida berries (med) are down. Berries out of Santa Maria (med) are up. Oxnard is off to a good start, despite the fierce Santa Ana winds and their contribution to the devastating Southern California wildfires. GRAPES The grape market is slightly up this week. Product out of California is up, with good supplies and quality, and moderate demand. BLUEBERRIES Blueberries are looking good as usual, with no defects or quality issues. BLACKBERRIES Blackberries look good with few quality issues. CITRUS LEMONS Lemons are up again this week. Lemon demand remains very strong right now. Small lemons are the tightest, due to the sizing coming from the fields. The sizing issue will continue until the new harvest starts. The fires in California have affected some of the growing fields, but overall damage has yet to be determined. The main stress point for lemons is, even if the fields are not damaged, it s still a struggle to get trucks into the area due to the fire and smoke. ORANGES Oranges are continuing to see a shift to a larger-sized fruit. As the shift occurs, smaller-sized oranges will increase in price. Choice oranges remain less than 15% of the current harvest. Cara Caras and Blood Oranges will start harvesting in the next week or two. Quality remains fair to good. LIMES Limes are flat for the week. The current supply is meeting demand. Quality looks to be fair to good on most product. The tough part will be during the holiday weeks, when Mexico shuts down its harvest. HANGING FRUIT APPLES & PEARS Apples: The apple market has stabilized, as the harvest is complete. Pricing is expected to stay constant through the New Year. Demand is moderate. Pears: The pear market is stable, and should remain stable throughout the New Year. California and imported bartlett, red bosc, butter pears and Korean Asian pears are available. 9