Gordon Food Service Market Updates for August 31, 2018

Transcription

1 Gordon Food Service Market Updates for August 31, 2018 Dairy Cheese The CME Block Market has continued to stay with in the range we have been seeing for some time now. The Barrel market has continued with these sharp declines followed by retractions back towards the block market. Last week: Block-Down Barrel-Down This Week: Block-Up Barrel-Up Dairy Eggs Retail demand fair to fairly good. Supplies of extra large thru mediums available.

2 Market soft and adjusting. Last week: Large - Down Medium - Down Small - No Change This Week: Large - Down Medium - Down Small - No Change Dairy Butter There is tightening in production as warm weather reduces production and cream is going to ice cream manufacturers.inventories are still more than adequate when announced at the end of June but it will still take a significant increase to move prices lower. Last week: Butter - Down This Week: Butter - Up Grocery & Bakery Wheat

3 Spring wheat harvest is 80% complete and quality is excellent. The premiums for high protein wheat used in pizza and pasta flour have relaxed leaving pizza flour prices lower than last year. A similar situation with durum wheat has left pasta flour prices below last year. Grocery & Bakery Soybean Oil Soybean oil prices are trading at the bottomof the USDA's $0.28-$0.32/lb projected trading range. As long as the soybean crop looks large prices will stay low. Grocery & Bakery Sugar Sugar beet processors have contracted more than 50% next years production. As their booking position gets bigger, they often try to inch their prices higher. Meat Beef Beef prices seem to have topped out as the window for Labor Day buying closes. The latest USDA survey shows record numbers of cattle in feedlots which should mean large beef output into the fall. Ground Beef: Ground beef prices moved lower after Labor Day in each of the last 10 years. Packers forward sales were at a 8% discount last week. Ribs: Prices for ribs often adjust lower after Labor Day, especially after a price jump like we had this year. Again prices for delivery after Labor Day are 7% lower. Briskets:

4 Brisket prices are dropping as larger production catches up with demand. Rounds: Round prices are mostly steady and could trend sideways for the near term. Strips: Prices jumped in front of Labor Day. Forward prices for after the holiday are 10% lower. Tenders: Tenderprices increased as we got closer to Labor Day. Packers are also getting higher prices for future delivery. Thin Meats: Ball tip prices continue to advance and are currently at the second highest level ever for this time of the year. Flank meat prices have leveled out; outside skirt prices are still trending lower. Meat Pork Pork prices are at 5-year lows and hog prices dropped below $0.40/lb for the first time since News of Mexico's trade agreement and African Swine Fever in China may provide support down the road, but right now the market is choking on big supplies. Butts: Butt prices have inched higher and have likely reached Labor Day highs. Domestic buying should slow but export buying is stronger than expected. Hams:

5 Ham prices went low enough to trigger another round of Mexican buying. The latest cold storage survey shows fewer hams in the freezer reinforcing ideas that prices are low enough to keep fresh product moving. Bacon/Bellies: Belly prices are at 5-year lows for this time of the year and are starting to attract retail interest. Excess supply is cleaning up. Ribs: Sparerib firmed as buyers completed fill-in buying for Labor Day features. Holidayshortened production schedules could support prices into next week. Loins: Bone-in and boneless loin prices may drift lower as retail interest winds down. Exports will pick up as prices slip but it is hard to predict how low they will go this fall. Poultry Chicken Whole bird/cut-up chicken prices are lower than last year. Retail feature activity is well below last year. Breast and Tenders: Breast meat features are also down from last year. Prices are now at an all-time low, a noteworthy achievement in front of a big grilling holiday. Tender prices also moved to all-time lows. Medium breast meat is moving a little better than jumbo. Wings: Jumbo wing prices ratcheted higher reaching levels similar to the last few years.small and medium wing prices have steadied out. Dark Meat: Leg and thigh meat are getting harder to place now that they are priced at a

6 premium to jumbo breast meat. Poultry Turkey Frozen whole turkey inventories are below last year at this time. Prices are still 15% lower than 2013, the last time inventories were at this level. Seafood Finfish Cod, Alaskan 1x: Supply remains tight and costs are firm, this is partly due to decreased quota in other regions of the world. Expect this toremain this way through the end of the year. Cod, Atlantic 1x: The 1x frozen Atl. cod loins are firmon costs withthe announcement of a 25% reduction on quota compared to2017 out of the Newfoundland and Labradorregions in Canada. Inventoryhas been ramped up to cover increased demand on all sizes. Expect cost to remain elevated through at least the end of the year. Cod, Atlantic 2x: Fishing in Northern Europe has concluded.total catch this season ispoor and raw material is in short supply for2018 until early 2019 when fishing resumes. Cod, Pacific 2x: Heavy restrictions on total allowable catch in certain Alaskan fishing grounds. Raw material is now more expensive than Atlantic Cod and expected to firm continuously for all of Pollock, Atlantic 1x: Costs have softened slightly on some sizesof the 1x fzpollock but mostremain steady for the balanceof the summer and through the B Pollockseason. Many anticipated with the rising cost of Cod that Pollock would be the next lower cost

7 option.for the most part that "switch" has not materialized to the degree first thought. Pollock, Pacific 2x: Slight firming of pricing. Starting to see substitution demand from cod users. Haddock: Raw material prices firming due to the cheapest ground fish compared to Pacific and Atlantic Cod. Continued substitutions from cod consumers driving up demand and cost.available raw material is in short supply. Domestic Lake Fish: Costs have softened andleveled off formost of the summer on perch, walleye and whitefish. Supply had been readily availableon perch and smaller sizes of walleye. Larger walleye and 8/10 whitefish have been hard to find at this time due to the class of fish on the lake As we enter the fall fishingseasonwe expect all supply issues to be alleviated. Euro Lake Fish & Zander: Supply is good and costs have been stable with only minoradjustments to market.this is a more cost effective substitute for the higher priced domestic lake fish items where applicable. Mahi Mahi: Mahi Mahi costs and supply are currently steady for an activedemand. Typically the springseasonbrings added containersfromtaiwan and Viet Nam to supplement, butinventorydid not materialize this seasonout of Asia. New S America product should begin to arrive in Nov / Dec., price will be determinedat that time. Frozen Tuna, Swordfish : Frozen tuna harvests out of Vietnamare considered stable for this year with supply listed as normal. Productout of Indonesia has been slow to materialize and therefore has put added pressure on the product out of Vietnam.The Thailandseason has ended.expect prices to continueto be stable for the summer grilling season with only a uptick expected on the smaller 4 oz sizeof tuna with supply being tighter on

8 thissize.swordfish has also started to firm on the 6 and 8 oz portions, supply has been tight. Swai: Cost fingerlings increased after Chinese New Year instead when market expected a drop. US trade commission assesses preliminary higher duty rates in Swai. Prices firm with short supply until end of 2018/early Tilapia: Low production during this time of the year. Prices recently firmed. Seafood Shrimp Imported Black Tiger: Black Tiger shrimp prices are stable and supply is good on small and middle sizes. There are shortages of large sizes due to limited production (2-4 through 13-15) and heavy demand. Imported White: White shrimp supply is somewhat sporadic with shipments being late due to heavy demand overseas. Market values are good and offer great opportunities to menu shrimp this summer. Expect supply to be better as we roll into the late summer months as production catches up. Latin White: Latin White shrimp are firm with replacement prices firming. Supply is good for the time being. Domestic White & Brown: Domestic Brown shrimp are steady in price as we roll into the new season for Texas. Larger sizes of white and brown headless shrimp should begin to land over the next few months. Domestic PUD:

9 Domestic PUD production has slowed on smaller shrimp. While boats begin to target larger whites and browns where available, we should see better production in larger and middle size peeled shrimp. Domestic Rock & Pink: Rock & Pink shrimp are both in good supply. Seafood Lobster North Atlantic: Lobster tail costhave been steady to date. Summer tourism helps to keep demand and cost elevated. As the Canadianseason has ended Maine has been ramping up with reported good landings and adequatesupply to producetails. Meat supply is steady with some softening on cost. Warm Water: The season has been delayed out of Brazil and to date supply has been limited. Smaller sizesare harder to come by at the moment. The Bahamian season product should be arriving soon to help alleviate the current pressure on supply of the WW species. For now costs have increasedquickly with no immediaterelief in sight. Seafood Crab Snow Crab: The global shortage of snow crab will continue through Prices have leveled off and remain firm on the larger 8 and 10 up products withlimited offerings. 5/8 have softened slightlyas there is more inventoryof this size on the market as it was the predominate sizeharvested this season. King Crab: Smallerking crab sizes remain very tight, especially on 14/17 ct, 16/20 ct and 20/+ ct. Thesethree sizes haveseen the biggest issue with availability and as a result costs are firming.they are still fishing for Russian crab but most is movingto

10 theasian market.we do not expect any relief on supply or cost at least for the next 5-6weeks. Red Swimming Crab: A new 10% tariff on all seafood items should go into effect in August. The market is still uncertain however, between high market prices, and limited supply, cost might go up. This coupled with the void in the market on red swimming crab only strengthens this possibility. We are still expected to start receiving shipments on red crab in October. The main crab harvest is October December. Blue Swimming Crab: Prices are still high with great inventory. There has been a slight decrease in pricing from Indonesia while Philippines and India move up to be more in line with Indo. For the next days prices will stay level to a possible dip however, Q4 is expected to pick back up. With the red swimming still high with limited supply, this too drives the price up. Overall prices will come down a bit. Seafood Scallops With increasedquotathis season and more open areas to fish...costs have decreased for the first time in several years. Supplyhas been more readily availablein the larger sizes. As we enter the fall and the season starts to wrap up, expect costs to start to firm for the winter months.