CAUSTIC SODA (Page 1-13) SODA ASH (Page 14) HYDROCHLORIC ACID (Page 18) CHLORINE (Page 18)

Transcription

1 Allen Zhang (CCAON- China) Lily wang (CCAON-China) Tianjin Nancy Hao (CCAON- China) Olivia Wang (CCAON- China) Beijing Beijing ISSUE NUMBER: October, 20 CAUSTIC SODA (Page 1-13) Raw Material Domestic market Export market Downstream market Forecast Production news SODA ASH (Page 14) Domestic market Soda ash price monitoring Export Date HYDROCHLORIC ACID (Page 18) CHLORINE (Page 18) Published by: NOTE: Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however no responsibility or liability will be accepted by CCAON and Page 1 commercial decision claimed to have been based on the content of the newsletter. Reproduction of any part of this work by any process whatever without written permission of CCAON is strictly forbidden.

2 CAUSTIC SODA Raw Material: Industry salt market Price of industry salt was almost consolidating in September. Price of solar salt was at high level although there were some resistances from downstream producers. Lake salt producers tried their best to overcome transportation difficulties on offtakes. Most well salt producers took plant maintenance at the end of month due to the insipid downstream market. Prevailing prices Region Price Property RMB/mt Market movement Shandong ex-work Solar salt Tianjin ex-work Jiangsu ex-work Hebei ex-work 390 Price of solar salt was almost consolidating in September. Demand for salt became insipid due to the down-ward downstream soda market. However, due to the little tight supply of salt cargoes, its price was almost consolidating with decline in some districts, Liaoning ex-work 450 Lake salt Inner Mongolia ex-work Qinghai spot Price of lake salt presented a stable level in September. Producers tried their best to overcome transportation difficulties to sell cargoes to other districts. Well salt Sichuan FD Hunan & Hubei ex-work Yunnan ex-work Jiangsu spot Price of well salt was almost stable in September, and there was some price rise in the middle ten days due to the increased coal cost. Most producers took plant maintenance in the end of month due to the insipid downstream market. Domestic market DOMESTIC PRICES OF LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA Region Prevailing prices (RMB/ mt) D-30% Four weeks ago M-32% Four weeks ago Market movement Page 2

3 E.China S.China N.China NW.China NE.China SW.China C.China D-30%: Diaphragm grade 30% liquid caustic soda M-32%: Membrane grade 32% liquid caustic soda Price showed the upward trend in September due to the high production cost and low operating rate of local chlor-alkali producers. Price was almost stable with slight decline last month in S.China. Caustic price was almost consolidating in a limited range although there were some declines for RMB 20-30/mt in Shandong and Tianjin. Price of caustic soda continued to stay at high level in the first ten days of September due to the declined output. However, There was a drop in price in the last ten days due to the increased sale pressure from flake caustic soda process producers. Price experienced from stable to downward trend due to the gloomy downstream demand. Price of caustic soda was with the upward trend due to the low operating rate and declined output, although faced with stagnant demand from downstream producers. Price of caustic soda was at a high level due to the declined operating rate, which was caused by the insipid PVC market Domestic prices of 30% caustic soda 900 Price(RMB/mt) Date 1-Jan 11-Jan 21-Jan 31-Jan 10-Feb 20-Feb 1-Mar 11-Mar 21-Mar 31-Mar 10-Apr 20-Apr 30-Apr 10-May 20-May 30-May 9-Jun 19-Jun 29-Jun 9-Jul 19-Jul 29-Jul 8-Aug 18-Aug 28-Aug 7-Sep 17-Sep 27-Sep East Average South Average (Average prices from 1st Jan to 28th September) Page 3

4 Domestic prices of 32% caustic soda 1000 Price(RMB/mt) Date 3-Jan 17-Jan 31-Jan 14-Feb 28-Feb 13-Mar 27-Mar 10-Apr 24-Apr 8-May 22-May 5-Jun 19-Jun 3-Jul 17-Jul 31-Jul 14-Aug 28-Aug 11-Sep 25-Sep E.China S.China (Average prices from 1st Jan to 28th September) DOMESTIC PRICES OF FLAKE CAUSTIC SODA Region Prevailing prices (RMB/ mt) 96% 99% The first week E.China The second week The third week The last week The first week S.China The second week The third week The last week N.China The month NW.China The month SW.China The month Market movement Price declined in September due to the weak demand from downstream producers. Price declined evidently in Guangdong market but it was almost stable at a high level in Guangxi due to the healthy demand from downstream alumina market. Price declined slightly due to the insipid demand from downstream producers. Caustic soda producers faced the sale pressure, and price had declined last month. Price kept stable due to the declined output in SW.China. However, there was also a price decline in the last ten days due to the price decline influence from other districts. Export market Domestic producers restored the normal export in September after the Olympic Games. There were some new nominations for October came out in succession. Offer price was at USD 550/mt FOB from Shanghai producer, and conclusion price was at about USD 500/mt FOB. Jiangsu producer offered at USD 530/mt FOB, and Shandong producer offered lately at USD 500/mt FOB. Oct. conclusion price was between USD /mt FOB, which showed a large range. Marketers said that there were some uncertain elements increased between buyers and sellers for liquid caustic soda export market after Olympic Games, and export price followed to fluctuate too. Page 4

5 Export market of solid caustic soda presented the downward trend in September. Olympic Games has finished at the end of August, and export market restored in the first week of September. Export price of 99% flake caustic soda was between USD /mtFOB in the ports of Tianjin and Shanghai in the first week of September with stable conclusions. However, export price began to decline from the second week due to price decline in domestic market, and most foreign buyers maintained the wait and see attitude. Till the end of month, export price of 99% flake caustic soda slid to USD /mtFOB in Tianjin port with insipid conclusion. Indications were that the export nomination was almost stable at USD /mt DAF in southwestern frontier, and conclusion volume was limited. Export offer was declined from the original USD /mt DAF to USD 480/mt DAF with limited conclusions. EXPORT CAUSTIC SODA Main Harbor Class Low Top range range Sources from 98% FOB Xinjiang Tianjin, Xinjiang, 99% FOB Tianjin Ningxia 96% FOB Inner Mongolia, Tianjin 48%-50% FOB Tianjin 98% FOB Anhui Shanghai 99% FOB Anhui, Shanghai 96% FOB - - Shanghai 48%-50% FOB Shanghai Northwest 99% DAF Sinkiang 96% DAF Guizhou, Sichuan Frontier Southwest 98% DAF Guizhou, Sichuan Trade 99% DAF Guizhou, Sichuan South 72% DAF East 48%-50% FOB Jiangsu Small South 48%-50% FOB ports RMB RMB Guangdong Northeast 48%-50% FOB - - Liaoning North 98.5% FOB Shandong CHINA LIQUID CAUSTIC SODA EXPORTS IN AUGUST 20 Volume Average prices To Source from Customs Tons USD/MT Macao Guangdong Gongbei Liaoning Shenyang 8, Brazil Shandong Qingdao 12, Philippine Tianjin Tianjin 2, Page 5

6 Shanghai Shanghai 5, Jiangsu Nanjing 2, Zhejiang Ningbo 3, Shandong Qingdao 5, S. Korea Tianjin Tianjin 4, Shanghai Shanghai 2, Shanghai Shanghai 12, Canada Jiangsu Nanjing 7,1 380 Shandong Qingdao 25, United States Jiangsu Nanjing 10,136 4 Shandong Qingdao 21, Taiwan Tianjin Tianjin 1, Shanghai Shanghai 1, Hongkong Guangdong Jiulong Singapore Tianjin Tianjin 3, Shanghai Shanghai 2, India Jiangsu Nanjing 5, Zhejiang Ningbo 6, Total 146,285 Note: * Marked information seems to be deviant All data sourced from CIQ Volume 250, , , ,000 Liquid soda export to key regions year 20 Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 50,000 0 Australia United States Canada India Taiwan Page 6

7 The volume and average prices of China's Export Liquid Caustic soda 20 Volume USD/MT 240, , , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Volume Average prices Note: Average prices of Export Liquid caustic soda are calculated from General Trade. CHINA SOLID CAUSTIC SODA EXPORTS Aug Jan-Dec 20 Region Country Volume Tons Average prices USD/MT Volume Tons Average prices USD/MT America Argentina Brazil - - 9, Panama Puerto Rico The Commonwealth of Dominica Dominica Ecuador Canada - - 2, United States , Mexico Colombia , Costarica Cuba - - 1, Honduras Peru , Nicaragua El Salvador Page 7

8 Africa Guatemala Trinidad and Tobago Venezuela Jamaica Chile , Total 2,053 40,149 Algeria Egypt , Ethiopia - - 2, Angola - - 1, Benin Burkina Faso Togo - - 1,6 365 Congo Eritrea Gambia Djibouti - - 1, Guinea Ghana - - 4, Zimbabwe Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Kenya , Gabon Libyan Liberia Madagascar - - 1, Malawi Mali Mauritius , Mauritania Democratic Republic of Congo Morocco Mozambique , South Africa , Niger Nigeria , Namibia 2, , Senegal - - 4, Suriname Page 8

9 Europe Oceania Asia Somalia Tanzania , Tunisia Zambia Chad Total 4, ,433 Danmark Deutschland Russia 2, , France Czech Republic Norway Portugal Ukraine Spain Sweden Greece Italy Total 2,377 15,883 Australia 61 1,690 1, Papua New Guinea New Zealand Tonga New Caledonia Total 61 2,354 UAE Oman Macao Pakistan - - 2, N. Korea , Philippine , Kazakhstan , S. Korea , Kyrgyzstan , Cambodia Kuwait Malaysia , Mongolia , Bangladesh 7, ,901 3 Myanmar 2, , Nepal Page 9

10 Japan Sri Lanka , Sudan , Tajikistan Taiwan Thailand , Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan , Hongkong , Singapore - - 1, Syria - - 1, Yemen - - 4,4 345 Iran , Israel India , Indonesia , Vietnam 3, , Total 18, ,5 Others Total 28, ,324 Note: * Marked information seems to be deviant All data sourced from CIQ The volume and average prices of China's Export Solid Caustic soda 20 Volume USD/MT 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Volume Average prices Note: Average prices of Export Solid caustic soda are calculated from General Trade. Page 10

11 Downstream market Industry Production yield in August (10K DMT) Growth yr-on-yr(%) Alumina Paper pulp Novamat Soap Synthetic detergent Forecast There might be another round of price fluctuation after the National holidays. Price might decline in N.China, and it might continue to stay at the high level in S.China. However, marketers said that there might be limited bull elements in the future market. Production news CHINESE CAUSTIC SODA PLANTS OPERATION (Unit: KDMT/Yr) Region Producer Status of Caustic Soda Plant Northeast China Jinhua Chemical Sep, run at about 70% Shenyang Chemical Sep, maintain low operating rate Tianjin Chemical Plant Sep, run at about 80% Tianjin Dagu Chemical Sep, run at about 70% N.China LG Bohai Chemical Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Shandong Hengtong Chemical Sep, run at stable rate Sep, maintain low operating rate Tangshan Sanyou Chlor-Alkali Sep, run at about 80% Shanxi YuShe Chemical Inner Mongolia Haiji Chlor-alkali Weifang Yaxing Henan Shenma Chlor-alkali Sep, stop production C.China Haohua Yuhang Chemical Kaifeng Dongda Chemical Sep, run at about 70-80% Zhuzhou Chemical Sep, run at about 50% NW.China Ningxia Yinglite Chemicals Xinjiang Tianye Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical Shaanxi Jintai Chlor-alkali Sep, operating rate was not full Sep, operating rate was not full E.China Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Sep, run at 50% Page 11

12 Taixing SP Chemicals Jiangdong Chemical Jiangsu Anpon Electrochemical Hangzhou Electrochemical Sep, operating rate was almost full July, run normally basically for the 110 kt/yr unit; Expansion by 60 kt/yr new unit in the middle ten days of July; Sep, run at about 90% Sep 23-28, stop for the 150 kt/yr membrane unit Zhejiang Juhua Group Sep, run at 60-70% Zhejiang Shangao Chemical S.China Nanning Chemical Southeast Electrochemical Sep, run at 70-80% SW.China Yibin Tianyuan Group Zigong Honghe Chemical Sichuan Jinlu Group Sep, run at about 50% for the unit in the new plant district Page 12

13 No Producer CAUSTIC SODA EXPANSION (unit: kt/yr) Caustic Soda Capacity Caustic Soda Expansion D G* M G* D G M G Update 1 Yibin Tianyuan Group Sep, run at about 50% for the unit in the new plant district 2 Tangshan Sanyou Chlor-Alkali Sep, run at about 80% 3 Two Lions (ZhangJiaGang)Fine Chemical Co.,Ltd Jiangdong Chemical July, run normally basically for the 110 kt/yr unit; Expansion by 60 kt/yr new unit in the middle ten days of July; Sep, run at about 90% 5 Shandong Xinfa Chemical Shandong Haihua Chemical Sep, run at about 80% 7 Ningxia Yinglite Chemicals Inner Mongolia Elion Chemical 360 Expansion by 360 kt/yr;/oct 28 in 20, start-up for 100 kt/yr unit,/late Dec in 20, start-up for another 100 kt/yr unit/ Others continue to be delayed Sep in 20, run at low operating rate 9 Haohua Yuhang Chemical Shanxi Yushe Chemical Henan Shenma Chlor-alkali Nanning Chemical Jiangsu Suhua Sep, run at 70-80% 14 Sinopec Nanjing Petrochemical Hubei Yihua Chemical Jilantai Group Taixing SP Chemicals Sep, operating rate was almost full 18 Xinjiang Tianye M3 Nov in 20, commissioning for 160 kt/yr membrane unit; / operating rate was not full 19 Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical M3 Nov, commissioning for 100 kt/yr membrane unit;/ Sep, operating rate was not full D G*: Previous capacity of diaphragm grade soda M G*: Previous capacity of membrane grade soda D G: Diaphragm grade M G: Membrane grade Page 13

14 SODA ASH Domestic market Domestic soda ash market sentiment was subdued and prices went down at large this month. Some soda ash producers increased capacity or built new capacity, so soda ash output increased sharply in September. However, soda ash downstream producers cut operating rates due to the Olympic Games. In order to reduce the high inventory, domestic soda ash suppliers conceded lower price, this was the director factor of falling prices. Affected by the global great depression, soda ash offtakes were bad. Downstream producers cut operating rates, for example papermaking, glass and washing-up. Analysts thought that soda ash prevailing prices would decrease in October. Average price Forecast L-Soda RMB/mt D-Soda RMB/mt Region market movement four weeks four weeks July July L D ago ago E.China Supply exceeded demand, price decreased. S.China Price was stable in early September and then fell down. Tonnages with low price from N.China C.China and NW.China flew into N.China. The price remained flat, but NE.China downstream producers were subdued. SW.China Price reduced slightly in September C.China Tonnages from China flew into N.China. NW.China Prices was at the lowest level, transportation condition was difficult. Note: 1 L-Soda: Light soda D-Soda: Dense soda 2 : stable, :slight increase, : slight drop, : sharp increase, : sharp drop Page 14

15 Soda ash price monitoring LIGHT SODA ASH E.China S.China N.China NE.China SW.China C.China NW.China Sep 4 RMB/mt Sep 11 RMB/mt Sep 22 RMB/mt Sep 28 RMB/mt DENSE SODA ASH E.China S.China N.China NE.China SW.China C.China NW.China Sep 4 RMB/mt Sep 11 RMB/mt Sep 22 RMB/mt Sep 28 RMB/mt Jan-Aug domestic soda ash average ex-work price trend diagram Jan 8-Jan 14-J an 20-J an 26-J an 1-Feb 7-Feb 13-Feb 19-Feb 25-Feb 2-M ar 8-M ar 14-M ar 20-M ar 26-M ar 1 -A pr 7-A pr 13-A pr 19-A pr 25-A pr 1-M ay 7-M ay 13-M ay 19-M ay 25-M ay 31-M ay 6-Ju n 12-Jun 18-Jun 24-Jun 30-Jun 6-Jul 12-Jul 18-Jul 24-Jul 30-Jul 5-A u g 11-A ug 17-A ug 23-A ug 29-A ug 4-S ep 10-S ep 16-S ep 22-S ep 28-S ep Light Soda Ash Dense Soda Ash (Average price of soda ash from 1st Jan to 28th September) Export Date CHINESE SODA ASH EXPORTS To Aug Jul Jan-Jul Tons Tons Tons Indonesia 54,566 54, ,395 S. Korea 49,096 41, ,557 Vietnam 29,991 16, ,593 Thailand 17,337 13, ,135 Page 15

16 Japan 14,800 16,196 93,7 Bangladesh 11,165 9,380 97,940 Nigeria 9,857 10,937 42,766 Taiwan 5,953 3,697 33,656 India 5,742 3,011 25,176 Algeria 5, ,386 Philippines 3,751 11,953 99,474 Malaysia 2,738 3,218 43,037 Pakistan 1, ,923 Honduras 1,848 1,128 10,046 N. Korea 1,763 1,292 15,206 S. Africa 1,132 3,690 13,178 Salvador 1,098 1,348 3,090 Others 9, ,364 Total 227, ,262 1,469,998 CHINA SODA ASH* EXPORTS IN August 20 Trade mode Volume Sum Average prices Tons USD USD/MT Frontier Small Trade 33 11, Processing Trade External Contractors Project , General Trade 227,103 66,386, Others Total 227,269 66,450,130 All data sourced from CIQ CHINESE SODA ASH EXPORTS TO KEY REGIONS August, Volume, MT Average price, USD/MT Indonesia 54, S. Korea 49, Vietnam 29, Thailand 17, Japan 14, Bangladesh 11, Nigeria 9, Taiwan 5, India 5, Algeria 5, others 23,379 total 227,269 Page 16

17 The volume and average prices of China's Export Soda Ash 20 Volume USD/MT 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 0 Volume Average prices Page 17

18 Hydrochloric acid CHINESE DOMESTIC PRICES E.China S.China N.China NE.China SW.China C.China NW.China Sep 4 RMB/mt Sep 11 RMB/mt Sep 22 RMB/mt Sep 28 RMB/mt HYDROCHLORIC ACID PRODUCTION OUTPUT, MT Hydrochloric acid Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug E.China 164, , , , , , , ,339 S.China 58,1 47,499 64,315 59,361 64,867 70,068 64,961 61,569 N.China 149, , , ,5 136, , , ,866 SW.China 47,176 41,557 49,846 46,673 55,501 61,9 57,019 55,871 NW.China 63,428 72,877 82,1 78,913 62,469 86,184 92,067 90,114 NE.China 31,747 26,247 24,932 24,435 22,802 29,493 26,974 24,613 C.China 106,178 85,722 98,986 85,920 93,226 98,726 91, ,851 Total 620, , , , , , , ,223 CHLORINE Highlights Chlorine prevailing prices continued to drop sharply in September. The Olympic Games was over at the end of August, but downstream demand was insipid, especially PVC production. Most Chlor-alkali suppliers had to shut down to decreased chlorine output. All the chlorine downstream sectors had to face the difficult offtakes, chlorine sellers conceded lower price in response to the deteriorating market conditions. Analysts said that chlorine price would continue to reduce in October. Average price RMB/mt Region Four weeks July ago E.China Market movement Downstream demand declined obviously, and price fell sharply. Forecast Page 18

19 S.China N.China NE.China Excessive inventory and sluggish downstream demand impacted the price. Prevailing price rose slightly due to chloroactic acid factory warmed up Chlorine transport was still restricted in NE.China, price was stable. SW.China Prevailing prices fell by RMB /mt. C.China The price fell at RMB /mt in Henan province. NW.China The chlorine price was at the lowest level across the domestic market. Note: 1 L-Soda: Light soda D-Soda: Dense soda 2 : stable, :slight increase, : slight drop, : sharp increase, : sharp drop CHLORINE DOMESTIC PRICES E.China S.China N.China NE.China SW.China C.China NW.China Sep 4 RMB/mt Sep 11 RMB/mt Sep 22 RMB/mt Sep 28 RMB/mt Downstream Sectors Products PVC Chlorinated paraffin ECH Chlorinated Methanes CPE Condition The sluggish market sentiment continued, most chlor-alkali producers still cut operating rates or entered into maintenance season. Many producers shut down due to insipid downstream demand. Most Epoxy chloropropane producers cut operating rates thanks to regional sluggish downstream market situation. Most producers were back up sold the inventory. The CPE producers had to cut operating rates because of subdued downstream demand. Page 19

20 Glossary E.China N.China S.China NE.China SW.China C.China NW.China Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shanghai Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shangdong Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian Heilongjian Jilin, Liaoning Sichuan,Chongqing, Yunnan,Guizhou Henan, Hubei, Hunan Shanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, Sinkiang, Ningxia Subscription: Ms. Lily wang & Ms. Olivia wang Tel: Fax: Address: Room 5D Ambassador Mansion Jiuxianqiao Road Chaoyang district Beijing China Post Code: Page 20