Minutes of Freshfel-SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 14 October Freshfel-SHAFFE Secretariat

Transcription

1 Minutes of Freshfel-SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 14 October 2013 Freshfel-SHAFFE Secretariat 14 October 2013

2 Introduction: The discussion will by no means involve matters or topics which could influence market prices or volumes and that the exchange of data and information is strictly limited to matters which do not interfere with competition or anti-trust legislation. The minutes and data from the meeting will be made publicly available to ensure the transparency of the discussion also for non-members. This discussion is in line with the European Commission (DG AGRI) policy on market transparency and information of its expert group. The teleconference reviewed first the forecasts for production in Northern Hemisphere countries, followed by a review of the current situation on key markets based on the Southern Hemisphere season outlook in the main markets. Participants included representatives from Spain, Italy, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, USA and South Africa. Input was also received from Turkey, Morocco, Argentina and Uruguay.

3 A summary of the Northern Hemisphere season 2013/2014 ORANGES Production Production Production Production Prod. Forecast Prod. Forecast Prod. Forecast Variation 2007/ / / / / / /2014 (12/13)/(13/14) SPAIN % CYPRUS % ITALY % GREECE % TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES % MOROCCO % TURKEY % EGYPT % ISRAEL % TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES % % FLORIDA % CALIFORNIA % TEXAS % ARIZONA #DIV/0! TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) TOTAL % % EASY PEELERS 2007/ / / / / / /2014 Variation SPAIN % CYPRUS % ITALY % GREECE % TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES % MOROCCO % TURKEY % EGYPT % ISRAEL % TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES % % FLORIDA % CALIFORNIA % ARIZONA % TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) % TOTAL % LEMONS 2007/ / / / / / /2014 Variation SPAIN % CYPRUS % ITALY % GREECE % TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES % MOROCCO (Other citrus) % TURKEY % EGYPT % ISRAEL % TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES % % CALIFORNIA % ARIZONA % TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) % TOTAL % GRAPEFUITS 2007/ / / / / / /2014 Variation SPAIN % CYPRUS % ITALY % GREECE % TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES % MOROCCO #DIV/0! TURKEY % EGYPT % ISRAEL % TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES % % FLORIDA % CALIFORNIA % TEXAS % TOTAL CITRUS 2007/ / / / / / /2014 Variation SPAIN % CYPRUS % ITALY % GREECE % TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES % MOROCCO % TURKEY % EGYPT % ISRAEL % TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES TOTAL USA (USDA citrus forecast) TOTAL % % % %

4 Spain: Northern Hemisphere forecast The total production (provisional figures) during the season will increase by 3% at ca 6.5 Mio T compared with the season 2012/2013. Sizes especially of early mandarines are tending to be smaller than usual. All fruit seems to be early skin coloration. Weather evolution will make the final difference with last year s amounts. Mandarines: the season for early satsumas and clementines started earlier. Central season tending to be similar as last year, not peaking in amount as two years ago. It is estimated that there will be less late hybrids, expect clemenvillas. It is very difficult to establish the influence of new hybrids plantations, but the expectation is to decrease global volumes in spite of that. Oranges: estimated that the production of early navels will be higher and very similar amounts of late varieties. The production decrease of the central season navels should not be realise din the market. Predicted a slight increase in classic juicing varieties. This season it is estimated that the volume of pigmented oranges will decrease, as fruit will be picked from new plantations. Lemons: higher production, both in Fino and Vernas. Date of picking on average, normal sizing, low impact of diseases. In general no big impact by climatic conditions, however hail in June affected production in some areas ( tonnes), that fruit will go for processing. 2012/2013 for lemons was an extraordinary season. It seems to be difficult to achieve the same balance. No stocks from SH but increasing competition from Turkey (prices and quantities and 20% devaluation for TK). Lemon processing is expected to return to normal levels ( tonnes). A goof normal crop for Verna is expected. Grapefruits: date of picking on average, smaller sizes, normal colouring, low impact of diseases. Normal climatic conditions. Heavy commercial competition with Turkey. Production (in tonnes) Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/ / Var 2012/ / % +1.6% +11% -7.5% +3% Italy: Oranges: Italy will come back to the situation of 2 years ago, with a regular production in terms of quantity. A shortage of big size (size ¾) is foreseen, as there will more small size oranges. Some damages due to the strong wind in last spring hit part of the total production. The consequences of CTV (citrus tristeza virus), that is destroying not less of 20% on citrus orchards just now. The total amount is tonnes, including tonnes of blood oranges. Lemons: excellent season, both for quantity (20% more compared last year) and quality (good size, especially for "Primofiore" variety). Some damages on fruits due the strong wind. It's expected probably a shortage of late varieties. Mandarins: good season also for mandarins with 10% more fruit in the orchards compared with the last campaign. Very good quality both varieties: "Avana" and "Ciaculli". Clementines: Same situation as with lemon, predicted an increase of 20%. A very good season in terms of quality. Production (in tonnes) Season Oranges Soft citrus Lemon Sum 2012/ / Var 2012/ / % +15% +10% +16%

5 Cyprus: Production figures stabilised the market of last three years. Picking of lemons and grapefruits started a week earlier comparing with previous season. Other fruit as usually. This week grapefruits started to be picked up, and it is planned to start the harvest of lemons next week. The good returns of last season are under threat as most countries are reporting higher expected production. Already this is evident by the poor start of the lemon and grapefruit campaigns. The bigger expected size of our main variety the Mandora will make marketing more difficult. The unfavourable weather conditions were during the blossoming of Mandora with warm winds affecting blossoming and thus production levels particularly in the Paphos area. The other varieties were not really affected. 2013/2014 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production Exports inta EU Export (third countries) Total exports Greece: The picking date of citrus fruit will be earlier compared with previous season. Fruits are expected to be of normal size and good colour with a very low impact of diseases. Climatic conditions were favourable for citrus fruit and did not have any major impact on the quality of fruit. Market outlook: it is expected for higher price trends for all citrus fruit during November, February and March. Stable prices during December and January. A good demand is expected for processing. Stable trade outlook and increasing consumption. 2012/2013 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production Domestic fresh Processing Export (third countries) /2014 (data in tones) Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total Production Other Mediterranean countries Turkey: Turkey has provided provisional forecast for the season 2013/2014, however did not update figures of the season 2012/2013. Turkey will update the figures end October/beg November. Production (in tonnes) Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/ / Var 2012/ / % +2% -17% -3% 0%

6 Egypt: Despite being a key player in citrus in the Mediterranean region and several contacts with the sector, statistics and forecast for Egypt are not available at the current time! The group will continue its efforts to develop contact with reliable information. Israel: Season 2013/14 has started in good condition, in terms of fruit volumes, quality and sizes. Picking date comparing with last season started on average, expect for grapefruits - earlier. Sizes of soft citrus, oranges and grapefruits are good, mainly due to low crops and early maturation. Colouring of soft citrus and lemons is good, while that of oranges and grapefruits very good. Low impact of diseases. Alternate cold and hot weather during flowering time (spring 2013) was unfavourable for citrus fruit. The market situation for grapefruits continues to be bad, for 3 rd consecutive year. Some growers started pulling out their grapefruit orchards. The market for soft citrus is good, however only if the quality of fruit is good. Price trends expectation for soft citrus is expected to be stable, while that of grapefruits lower than last year. Soft citrus and grapefruits have weak demand for processing. Consumption of soft citrus is increasing, while the same of grapefruits decreasing. 2012/2013 (data in Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total tones) Production Domestic fresh Processing Export (third countries) /2014 (data in Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Total tones) Production Domestic fresh Processing Export (third countries) Comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum 2012/ / Var 2012/ / % +54% +10% 0% +14% Morocco: Production this season is expected to recover after the low level of production registered last year. Depending on crop the increase will be 10-15% higher compared to the average crop. In future meetings EACCE will take the lead of coordinating the data and will represent Morocco during the teleconferences.

7 Comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Sum 2012/ / Var 2012/ / % +26% +10% +25% Other NH countries USA: General Comment: Due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. Government, the USDA did not publish the citrus forecast for the 2013/2014 season. The USDA has not given any indication of when we can expect a forecast to be released, but we assume some time after the government returns to full capacity. Based on the received comments the production cart above provides estimations for some citrus fruit. Florida: Oranges: Private estimates average 130 million field boxes down 3% from last year. Sizing is small with normal maturity. Main concern is unpredictable fruit drop and overall impact of Citrus Greening. Grapefruit: 18 million field boxes about the same as Slightly lower than last year. Tangerines: 3 million field boxes, down 1%. Overall, shipments to date out of Florida are 750,000 cartons. More packing houses are expected to open over the next two weeks. Texas: Grapefruit: Private estimates put the crop at 5 million field boxes, similar to last year. Growing conditions have been good and the sales focus will be on the domestic market. California: Navel Oranges: The projection by the California Department of Agriculture is 88 million cartons down 2%. This crop shows good sizing and early maturity by 10 days. Harvest should begin by October 21st, and we expect heavy shipments prior to the U.S. Thanksgiving, November 28th. Valencia Oranges: Private forecasts project 25 million cartons about the same as Tangerines: Private estimates place the crop up by 12% or 26.5 million cartons. Grapefruit: 8 million cartons, same as past season. Lemons: No consensus, average puts the crop at 45 million cartons. Focus on Southern Hemisphere: A few factors worth monitoring as the season progresses. California Navels: This is a very manageable crop and with an early start the industry should not be under pressure. This type of Navel Orange crop can lead to a good transition to the Southern Hemisphere. California Tangerines: Clementine/Mandarins have become so popular that increases in per capita consumption should absorb increases in production. A critical factor would be any cannibalization of the navel crop by these soft citrus varieties. Florida Fruit Drop: Last year all citrus production in Florida was down 9% and value was down 32%. Citrus Greening was certainly a factor and it needs to be carefully monitored. Main concerns Northern Hemisphere countries identified that the competition with other kind of fruit and quality issues are the main concerns which will be faced during the season 2013/2014.

8 Point of concerns Ranking Financial /economic crisis 10 Price return 6 Competition from other food product 9 Competition from other fruit 1 Declining consumption 3 Food safety 7 Quality 2 Market access barriers 4 Plant health 5 Access to plant protection product 8 (1 = the main concern up to 10 less concern) Southern Hemisphere season South Africa: The season for the variety Valencia is positive in spite of withdrawing exports to the EU. Production comparison Season Soft Citrus Orange Lemon Grapefruit Sum Var 2012/ / % +2% +16% +12% +9% Exports Citrus Valencia Navels Grapefruits Lemons Soft citrus Total Argentina: The season 2013 ended early. Last season lemons were affected by drought and frost. Internal costs are rising. Unfavourable exchange rate and public policies for exports.

9 2013 Oranges Soft citrus Grapefruit Lemons Sum Production Domestic market Processing External trade Uruguay: Fruit are recovering from last year s frosts. Good size and good quality for most of varieties. According to the Ministry of Agriculture Census (July 2013) planting estimations for are around plants, out of which: 45 % mandarines (Murcot, Avana, WMurcot, Clementines) 24 % oranges ( Navels and Fukumoto, Navelate, Lanelate and Midknights) 31 % lemons Mandarines tariffs going up next year to 16 % after GSP (Generalised System of Preferences, EU trade scheme) ends up. WorkPlan for the US market signed in September, 24 th. At this point companies are trying a pilot export to the East Cost with oranges. Proving logistics, cold treatment and packing facilities requirements. 4 or 5 containers at the most