Premium beer in North America forecasts to 2016

Transcription

1 Premium beer in North America forecasts to edition Author: Writing Solutions September 2012 Published by Aroq Limited Seneca House Buntsford Park Road Bromsgrove Worcestershire B60 3DX United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Web: Registered in England no: i

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4 Table of contents Categorisation notes What is premium beer? Chapter 1 Introduction Global beer market Premium beer in the United States The rise of craft brewing Premium beer in Canada Chapter 2 United States Market overview Leading companies Anheuser-Busch InBev MillerCoors Other US brewers Chapter 3 Canada Market overview Leading companies Labatt Brewing Company Molson Coors Sleeman Breweries Other Canadian brewers Chapter 4 Craft brewing The Boston Beer Company Sierra Nevada Brewing Company New Belgium Brewing Company The Craft Brew Alliance The Gambrinus Company Craft brewing in Canada iv

5 Chapter 5 Future outlook Premium beer in North America to 2016 Future prospects for the major brands Future prospects for the craft sector Appendix List of tables Table 1: Premium beer market sales by region and world total, (m kl) Table 2: Leading beer companies in the world, 2011 revenues and production volumes Table 3: US total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) Table 4: Top ten beer brands in United States, 2010 (% market share) Table 5: Canada total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) Table 6: Leading premium beer brands in Canada 2011 (% market share) Table 7: Leading craft beer companies and brands in the US, 2011 sales ( 000 kl) Table 8: US and Canadian total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) Table 9: Total beer production in developing markets (m kl) v

6 Notes about the data The methodology utilises a mixture of primary research, secondary research and econometric modelling undertaken by Writing Solutions. Secondary sources included individual national organisations, global bodies such as the OECD and the World Bank, as well as institutions such as the Kirin Institute for Food and Lifestyle. Unless otherwise stated all sales data refers to on- and off-trade combined sales. m kl: million kilolitres est.: estimate CAGR: Compound annual growth rate F: Forecast PPP: Purchasing Power Parity vi

7 Categorisation notes What is premium beer? Premium beer is broadly understood to refer to any beer that contains high alcohol by volume (abv) content, with a marked emphasis on the quality of its ingredients and flavour. The British Beer and Pub Association defines premium beer as having abv levels of between xxx% and xxx%, with anything stronger regarded as super strength. Premium beers are consequently more expensive than their mainstream counterparts, often priced between xx% and xx% more to account for the increased cost of production and packaging and the expense of image-appropriate advertising and marketing. Despite the increased outlay demanded by premium beers, they offer manufacturers more lucrative rewards than mainstream lagers and ales. However, at present there is no legal standard in place for brewers to abide by and, as such, the word premium is often misappropriated by marketers seeking to capitalise on a prestige term in order to promote their product despite its lacking the necessary alcohol content. Alternatively the term is misused to refer to beer which has high abv content but not the expected quality. The branding of such reduced-alcohol beers as Beck s Vier and Amstel as premium x% by Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B InBev) and Heineken respectively is an example of the complications that can be encountered when referring to brands as premium. vii

8 Chapter 1 Introduction Global beer market Premium beer currently comprises around xx% of the total global beer market, with mainstream brands accounting for xx% and low-cost or economy labels making up the remaining xx%, according to estimates by Dutch brewer Heineken. Total global premium beer sales stood at xxxx million kilolitres (m kl) at the end of 2011 and are forecast to reach xxxxxm kl in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of xxxx%. Interest in the sector has never been higher as consumers in more economically developed countries seek luxury alternatives to the familiar mainstream brands. At the same time, many emerging markets such as those of the BRIC and Next Eleven nations are experiencing population booms, increasing affluence and rapid rates of urbanisation, resulting in a generation of consumers thirsty for superior products and those considered status symbols. Table 1: Premium beer market sales by region and world total, (m kl) F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Total Europe Asia North America South America MENA Source: just-drinks, industry interviews Europe remains the biggest consumer of beer by continent thanks to its centuries old tradition of brewing. However, the market is also highly mature even in top-end segments. Its premium segment is expected to rise from xxxxxm kl sold in 2011 to xxxxxm kl in 2016, a sluggish x% CAGR. The continent s slow recovery from the global economic crisis and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has added to the problems facing the sector. Eastern Europe may offer a way out of the mire, with Canada s Molson Coors making a major 1

9 Chapter 2 United States Market overview Table 2: US total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) US beer production (m kl) Premium beer (m kl) F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F US population (m) Source: just-drinks, Kirin Institute of Food & Drink, US Census, industry interviews We estimate that xxxxm kl of beer was produced in total in the US in 2011, a slight rise on the xxxm kl drunk in In a population of xxxxxm, around xx litres of beer were consumed per person in 2011, against xxxx litres in As for the premium sector, the US consumed xxxm kl in 2011, up from xxxm kl in The premium sector appears to be in better health than its mainstream neighbour and has good growth prospects for the future as more consumers become aware of its superior product range and the wider economy recovers, encouraging consumer spending. In terms of drinking habits, xx% of beer was sold off-premises in liquor, grocery and convenience stores with just xx% bought in bars and restaurants, according to Molson Coors. Interestingly, the economic slump the US has experienced since 2008 appears to have changed the way in which Americans consume beer and brought about a revival in the sale of beer in aluminium cans, according to Bloomberg. From a high of xx% in 1991, sales of canned beer accounted for just xx% of the total US market by 2003 due to a huge boom in the popularity of imported premium beers in glass bottles. However, since the onset of the financial crisis, canned beer sales have rebounded to hit xx%, as consumers increasingly turn to the more affordable types of sub-premium brands that are typically sold in crates and six-packs. Very few people can walk into a store and buy the best bottle of wine. For beer lovers, that isn t the case. The best beers in the world are affordable to all. Boston Beer Marketing Executive 2

10 Chapter 3 Canada Market overview Table 3: Canada total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) Canada beer production (m kl) Canada premium beer (m kl) F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Canada population (m) Source: just-drinks, Kirin Institute of Food & Drink, Statistics Canada, industry interviews With a history of beer drinking dating back to the seventeenth century, Canada has a population comprised of sophisticated consumers of premium lagers and ales. They are also deeply loyal to local breweries, with xxxx% of all beer consumed in the country in 2011 domestic rather than imported. Canada exports xx% of the beer it brews, primarily to the US, and the industry contributes CADxxbn (US$xxxxxbn) to the country s economy per annum. Although total beer sales did slide x% during 2011, with production remaining flat this can be attributed to the broader North American economic slump and increasingly frugal consumer spending habits. Further evidence of this can be seen in the rise in demand for canned beers over bottles, a phenomenon we have also noted occurring in the US. According to the Brewers Association of Canada, beer in cans accounted for just xxxx% of the market in 2008 and now claims a xxxx% share, rising xxxx% between 2010 and 2011 alone, a symptom of straitened financial conditions. Premium beer sales continue to grow, with xxxm kl consumed in 2011 and the top five brands currently accounting for xx% of the total Canadian market. Leading companies Table 4: Leading premium beer brands in Canada 2011 (% market share) Company Market share (%) Molson Canadian Labatt Blue Carling Lucky Larger 3

11 Chapter 4 Craft brewing Craft brewing has been one of the most exciting and innovative offshoots of the North American beer industry since its emergence in the mid- to late-1980s, with the US hosting nearly xxxxx breweries by the end of The success of the sector appears to reflect a definite desire among US and Canadian consumers for greater choice. Tired of a retail landscape populated by ubiquitous, mass produced, medium quality lagers manufactured from the most cost-effective ingredients by a small number of dominant corporations, North American drinkers have welcomed the alternative output of regional microbreweries with open arms. Craft beers differentiate themselves by offering strongly defined identities and local provenance, their brewers standing for individuality and a sincere commitment to the production of exceptional lagers and ales. The output of these breweries is therefore defiantly niche, with even the largest brewers claiming only a small percentage of the overall beer market, and currently only of interest to a specialist minority, typically older drinkers, whose loyalty is all the more fanatical because of the cult status their favoured brand enjoys. Table 5: Leading craft beer companies and brands in the US, 2011 sales ( 000 kl) Company 2011 Sales ('000 kl) Leading brand Boston Beer Company Sierra Nevada New Belgium Brewing Craft Brew Alliance Spoetzl Brewery Magic Hat Brewing Company Deschutes Brewery Matt Brewing Company Bell's Brewery Harpoon Brewery Sam Adams Sierra Nevada Pale Ale Fat Tire Red Hook Shiner Bock Single Chair Red Chair NWPA Saranac Bell's Larger Harpoon IPA Source: Company reports 4

12 Chapter 5 Future outlook Premium beer in North America to 2016 Table 6: US and Canadian total beer and premium beer production, (m kl) US Beer Production (m kl) Canada Beer Production (m kl) US Premium Beer Production (m kl) F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Canada Premium Beer Production (m kl) Source: just-drinks, Kirin Institute of Food & Drink, industry interviews Despite the flat state of the North American beer sector in recent years and the slow rate of economic recovery, we are still expecting to see growth in the continent s premium beer sales over the next four years, albeit modest..premium beer production in the US is expected to rise from xxxm kl in 2011 to xxxm kl in 2016, while Canadian premium beer production is set to hold steady at xxxm kl throughout the forecast period as the industry caters to a much smaller and more settled market. The craft sector, which increased xx% by volume in the US in 2011, should continue to eat into mainstream sales and expand upon its near x% market share as the leading brands of its more prominent brewers become better known and microbrewery produce becomes increasingly fashionable following a wave of highly positive recent media coverage. Much will depend on macroeconomic factors, however. Although it is true that beer remains a more affordable luxury than either fine wines or spirits, it is nevertheless a non-essential grocery item and as such will have to wait for a revival in consumer confidence and spending in the US and Canada before it sees a return to its pre-crisis state. While premium beers are more expensive than mainstream mainstays, this factor should be negated by their superior quality, which is more likely to inspire enthusiastic repeat purchases when less distinctive beers leave drinkers nonplussed and prove themselves dispensable. Any initial doubts about this emerging sector appear to have been laid to rest, with all of the top five global brewers pressing ahead with the promotion of premium beer around the world. 5