Mauricio Mendes Gilberto Tozatti. International Citrus Economics Conference Oct 2010, Florida - USA
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1 Mauricio Mendes Gilberto Tozatti International Citrus Economics Conference Oct 2010, Florida - USA
2 AgraFNP and GCONCI An information and consulting agribusiness company Citrus Consultants Group A nonprofit organization which join 17 independent agronomists
3 Long Term Outlook The study consisted in the discussion of upside and downside qualitative factors (sensitive) and probabilities that influence a long term Brazilian citrus crop projection The main aspects considered in this study was: PRODUCTION ECONOMIC DISEASES Acreage Cost of production Sudden Death Growers Profitability Citrus Canker Trees and production Gross margin C V C Level of technology Cost opportunities Blossom Blight Other crops HLB (greening)
4 PRODUCTION ECONOMIC DISEASES
5 Brazilian States Participation São Paulo State represents 78% of the total production and 70% of the total area. Source: IBGE, 2008
6 Number of Citrus Growers
7 Citrus Growers Participation in the Supply Source: AgraFNP
8 Citrus Growers Range by Number of Trees (from ) Total 2001 : : : Thousand trees Source: Markestrat
9 % Citrus Growers by Number of Trees (from ) Thousand trees Source: Markestrat
10 Citrus Growers Ranged by Yield 2009/2010 Season Range productivity (boxes/ha) % ha % Boxes Volume of Boxes by Range Productivity (million) Productivity boxes/ha > % 5% and % 13% and % 29% and % 30% and % 21% < 200 8% 2% TOTAL 100% 100% 317,4 607 TOTAL OVER % 77% 244,4 909 TOTAL DOWN % 23% Based on the data from associated processing plants companies Source: Markestrat
11 Citrus Growers Range by Yield 2009/2010 Season 56% of the area represents 77% of the total production 44% of the area represents 23% of the total production only boxes/ha Source: Markestrat
12 Citrus Trees and Production in São Paulo State 164,2 317,4 16,4 Source: IEA
13 Nurseries in São Paulo State Source: Fundecitrus
14 Acreage, Yield, Production Yield +41% Area -18% Prod +15% Source: AgraFNP - IEA
15 PRODUCTION ECONOMIC DISEASES
16 Brazilian Citrus Industry Chain Citrus Chain Revinew = US$ 6.5 Billions ( US$ 2,15 Bi External Mkt and US$ 4,39 Bi Domestic Mkt) Exports US$1,9 Bilhões (US$ 1,28 Bi in FCOJ+NFC ; US$ 0,7 Bi in by products) 1,0 % of all Brazilian Exports (US$ 197 Bi) 2.9 % of Brazilian AG Exports (US$ 60 Bi) 95% Shipping troughtout Santos Port 230 K employees US$ 819 millions on inputs ( US$ 288 M in pesticides only) Source: Markestrat
17 Harvesting Cost (R$/Bx) São Paulo Citrus Industry Source: Markestrat based on AgraFNP
18 Freight Cost (R$/Bx) São Paulo Citrus Industry Source: Markestrat based on AgraFNP
19 Diesel Oil Price (R$/Bx) São Paulo Citrus Industry Source: Markestrat based on AgraFNP
20 Amount of pesticides used in the Citrus Industry Source: Markestrat SINDAG
21 Oranges Production Cost in BRL and USD / box Orange - Cost of Production 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00-10,02 9,87 9,58 8,24 5,01 7,73 3,93 5,64 1,73 3,28 5,21 2,23 1,49 4,36 1,58 1, R$/cx US$/cx Fonte: AgraFNP 2 Source: AgraFNP
22 Comparative Orange Production Cost SP and FL States (US$/bx) 2002/ /2009 FL Cost 3,3 times more than SP Harv & Transp FL Cost 1,9 times more than SP on tree Source: CitrusBR, CREC UF/IFAS
23 US$/box Grower Profitability Gross Margin (US$) US$/bx 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3, Gross Margin Total cost Orange Price Fonte: AgraFNP, Cepea Source: AgraFNP, CEPEA
24 BRL/box - Deflat Grower Profitability Gross Margin (BRL) 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0-5, ,0 Margem Bruta Custo Preço Laranja Indústria Fonte: ifnp, Cepea 2 Source: AgraFNP, CEPEA
25 US Dollar vs. Brazilian Real Exchange rate BRL/USD 3,40 3,20 3,00 2,80 2,60 2,40 2,20 2,00 1,80 3,08 Exchange Rate (R$/US$) Considering US$4.00/bx date US$/ R$ R$/bx July ,08 12,34 Sept ,65 6,59 Jan ,38 9,52 Jun ,26 9,04 Out ,67 6,68 1,65 1,60 Oct/10 1,40 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06 jul/06 jan/07 jul/07 jan/08 jul/08 jan/09 jul/09 jan/10 jul/10 Source: Banco Central do Brasil 25
26 Land Value (US$/Ha) São Paulo Citrus Belt and Florida Land Value (US$/HA) in Municipalities of the São Paulo Citrus Belt and Florida Municipalities Variation in the period Araraquara % Bauru % Campinas % Itapetininga % Piracicaba % Pirassununga % Ribeirão Preto % São J. do Rio Preto % Florida -South % Source: Markestrat based on AgraFNP and IFAS survey
27 Land Value (US$/Ha) São Paulo Citrus Belt Source: Markestrat based on AgraFNP
28 PRODUCTION ECONOMIC DISEASES
29 HLB Management Costs Inspection, Eradication and Psilid Control US$0,30 US$0,40/box HLB Management Source: GCONCI
30 Tree losses in SP due to the 4 major deseases Number of erradicated trees in the Citrus Belt due to the four major diseases (x.1000) TOTA L CItrusCanker CVC Greening SuddenDeath Total Citrus Canker CVC Sudden Death Greening Source: Markestrat CitrusBR, Fundecitrus
31 Citrus Canker % of Infected Blocks Source: Fundecitrus
32 HLB: % Contaminated Blocks In São Paulo State Source: Fundecitrus
33 HLB: Number of Contaminated Trees in São Paulo State Source: Fundecitrus
34 2008 Levantamento Amostral de Greening Índices de Contaminação (Plantas) Sem contaminação >0% a 0.01% >0.01% a 0.1% >0.1% a 1% >1% a 2% >2%
35 2009 Levantamento Amostral de Greening Índices de Contaminação (Plantas) Sem contaminação >0% a 0,01% >0,01% a 0,1% >0,1% a 1% >1% a 2% >2%
36 2010 Levantamento Amostral de Greening Processing Plants Índices de Contaminação (Plantas) Sem contaminação >0% a 0,01% >0,01% a 0,1% >0,1 % a 1% >1% a 2% >2%
37 HLB Sample Survey 38% of the blocks are contaminated Source: Fundecitrus
38 HLB incidence vs. Grove Size Source: Fundecitrus
39 São Paulo Citrus Belt Source: CATI
40 Citrus Production by SP Region
41 Citrus Belt Movement Trends Average Temperature Source: GCONCI
42 Ratio of Mid-Season Varieties in Sao Paulo State Source: AgraFNP
43 Potential Regions: free of HLB Good condition for Irrigated Citrus projects. Lack of infra-structure for Orange Juice Bahia, Tocantins, Goias: Greening Free States SP, Minas, Paraná States Greening found already Source: GCONCI
44 PRODUCTION ECONOMIC DISEASES OUTLOOK
45 São Paulo Citrus Industry Long Term Outlook Source: GCONCI
46 Gilberto Tozatti International Citrus Economics Conference Oct 2010, Florida - USA
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