Southeast Asian Wheat Foods Industry

Transcription

1 Southeast Asian Wheat Foods Industry 9 th Annual Southeast Asian Meeting International Association of Operative Millers October 1, 2018 Manila, Philippines Joe Sowers Regional Vice President Philippines and South Korea

2 ASEAN GDP PPP (trillion int. dollars) Real growth rate forecast GDP Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Singapore Myanmar Source: CIA World Factbook/World Bank

3 ASEAN Population Growth Population 2018 (millions) Growth Rate Median age Indonesia 260, % 30.2 Philippines 104, % 23.5 Vietnam 96, % 30.5 Thailand 68, % 37.7 Myanmar 55, % 28.2 Malaysia Japan 126,451 31,382 (0.2%) 1.4% Cambodia/Laos South Korea 51,181 23, % 1.5% Singapore Taiwan 23,508 5, % 1.9% Source: CIA World Factbook

4 Philippines/Japan Age Pyramids 60% 89%

5 Growing Prosperity and Urbanization Shifts Appetites Per Capita Wheat Consumption for Food Use kg/capita Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Up 121% from Up 139% 15 Up 228% 10 5 Source: USDA/Euromonitor

6 30 28 Per Capita Wheat Consumption for Food Use and GDP Growth Philippines kg/capita % growth Source: USDA/Euromonitor

7 Philippines: New Capital of Call Centers $70 billion - 8% of GDP 1.5 million employees Companies shift facilities from India to the Philippines Proficient English, preferred accent and customer service aptitude Fast paced, 24/7, commuting lifestyle

8 US futures prices HRS HRW SRW

9 U.S. AVERAGE FARM PRICES Hard Red Spring Wheat Per Ton $350 Per Bushel $9.52 $300 $8.16 $250 $6.80 $200 $5.44 $150 $4.08 $100 $2.72 Source: USDA, Annual Price Summary

10 HRW/Russian FOB prices , , ,000 12,000 10,000 $US/MT ,000 rubles/mt 210 6, , , HRW $US Russian $US Russian ruble

11 Ruble/$ and WTI

12 90 80 Russian wheat production Million metric tons

13 Southeast Asia Flour Milling Industry - Capacity Change from 2000 through 2018 Myanmar 109% Thailand 5% +39% Vietnam 50% +34% Philippines 8% +40% Malaysia 15% +0% Indonesia 40% +39% Annual Regional Milling Capacity Increases by 3 MMT from and an additional 7 MMT from Regional milling use up 10.4 MMT from

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16 Top 13 Wheat Importers in the World million metric tons /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Indonesia Egypt Brazil Algeria Source: USDA: Production, Supply and Distribution

17 Indonesian Mills Single mill with ~ 50% market share Pundi Kencana, 6% Sriboga, 5% Bungasari, 5% Bogasari also has interest in Eastern Pearl Market making price power CY 17 actuals Eastern Pearl, 7% Cerestar, 10% 50% of flour sold at negative margin Several balance sheets are weak Feed wheat is saving the weakest 8.8 MMT milling wheat in MY17/18 Bogasari, 50% 79% utilization Panganmas, 3% WINA, 3% Nutridon, 2% Source: Aptindo Others, 10%

18 share TMT Australia 47% 3,854 Canada 20% 1,640 Black Sea 15% 1,230 US 13% 1,066 others 5% MMT wheat market SME Ind. HH 1,000 metric tons 5,330 2, Noodles 1,812 2,140-48% Biscuit/conf % Baked goods 2, % others %

19 SMALL MEDIUM ENTERPRISE (SME) BAKERY Mixers 19

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21 7 US wheat sales to North and SE Asia 6 5 million metric tons Japan South Korea Taiwan ASEAN

22 US Sales to Indonesia all classes 1,200 1, TMT thousand metric tons TMT Source: FGIS

23 US Sales to Indonesia by class 1,200 1, thousand metric tons SRW HRW SW HRS / / / / / /18 Source: USDA Export Sales

24 share TMT US 55% 650 Australia 37% 430 Consistent, sophisticated market Two new mills Canada 8% 100 others 0% US wheat sales to Thailand 600 thousand metric tons SRW HRW SW HRS / / / / / /18

25 Energy price (US /kwh) Vietnam 7 Indonesia 8 Malaysia 9 Thailand 12 Philippines 14 Strong economic growth New import infrastructure and mills Low energy/wage costs Fumigation issue US wheat blocked from Dec. 16 Aug. 17 Weed seed issues ongoing Australian tariff advantage/canada via TPP US wheat sales to Vietnam share TMT Australia 65% 1,300 US 10% 200 thousand metric tons SRW HRW SW HRS Canada 8% 150 others 17% / / / / / /18

26 share TMT Australia 65% 1,000 US 15% 200 Canada 10% 150 others 10% Home to regional milling companies 10 Subsidized GP flour 40% of market 1 kg bags only, phasing out in 2019 Prices remain depressed Strong market for improvers US wheat sales to Malaysia 300 thousand metric tons SRW HRW SW HRS / / / / / /18

27 US wheat sales to the Philippines: 2010/11 through 17/18: 91% average market share Market Share of Philippine Milling Wheat Imports 91% 1% 8% US Canada Australia Source: Philippine Census

28 Philippine Wheat Foods Use % of total use 1,000 MT (wheat equivalent) Bakery products* 50% 1,450 Noodles 20% 580 Cookies & Crackers 20% 580 Pasta 4% 120 Others 6% 175 *bakery products detail % of bakery segment Pan de Sal and derivatives 35% 500 Loaf bread 30% 450 Buns and rolls 20% 300 Cakes and Pastries 10% 150 Chinese products (sio pao) 5% 70 Source: Industry sources

29 3,000 US wheat sales to the Philippines: 2,500 2,000 thousand metric tons 1,500 1,000 SRW HRW SW HRS / / / / / /18 Source: USDA Export Sales

30 3.5 Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average MMT Source: USDA FAS Export sales data

31 Inflation! Php/$USD Peso/USD exchange rate

32 800 World Production and Use MMT Production Use

33 US futures prices HRS HRW SRW

34 6,000 US wheat sales to South Asia 5,000 4,000 thousand metric tons 3,000 2,000 SRW HRW SW HRS 1, / / / / / /18