Mintec Market Report February 2017

Transcription

1 EU dairy and egg prices are generally falling, due to a slowdown in domestic demand. High EU pork exports to China has reduced the EU breeding herd size, pushing prices higher. Concerns over a potential El Niño returning and damaging sugar crops in Brazil are adding upward pressure to prices. Mintec Market Report February 2017

2 Mintec Market Report February UP DOWN Basmati Rice (IN) +26% Cucumber (UK) -16% Banana (ES) +23% Eggs (FR) -11% Iron ore (CN) +12% Natural Gas London ICE -10% Pork (NL) +5% SMP (EU) -8% Sugar London ICE +4% Chicken (UK) -7% Beef (FR) +3% Butter (EU) -5% All percentage changes in this report refer to month-on-month price changes. Softs... Arabica coffee prices fell on ICE US (-3%) over the past month. Robusta prices fell on London ICE (-4%), as Brazil s government withdrew on plans to allow imports for the first time. Sugar prices rose on London ICE (+4%) and ICE US (+1%), supported by the strengthening Brazilian Real combined with concerns that El Niño could return in the second half of this year and damage crops in key growing areas. Tea prices fell in Kenya (-6%), due to a decline in demand. Tea prices also fell in India (-5%), but rose in Sri Lanka (+4%), driven by strong demand at the auction in Colombo, where only 4% of total tea offered at the auction in week 8 was left unsold. Cocoa bean prices fell on ICE US (-9%) and London ICE (-9%). Prices for cocoa butter (-10%) and cocoa powder (-4%) also fell in the UK. Oils and fats... Soyabean oil prices fell on CBOT US (-6%), in Argentina (-6%) and in Rotterdam (-5%), due to uncertainty surrounding US biodiesel demand and easing concerns over South American soyabean production. Rapeseed oil prices fell in Canada (-9%) and Rotterdam (-6%), due to an increase in stocks available for near term delivery. Palm oil prices fell in Malaysia (-10%), Indonesia (-9%) and Rotterdam (-8%), due to an expected recovery in production. Palm kernel oil prices also fell in Rotterdam (-25%), Indonesia (-24%) and Malaysia (-15%). Coconut oil prices fell in Rotterdam (-14%), in line with falling palm kernel oil prices; however, prices rose in the Philippines (+7%). Sunflower oil prices fell in Russia (- 4%), NW Europe (-4%), Argentina (-2%) and Ukraine (-1%). Extra virgin olive oil prices rose in Italy (+5%) and Spain (+5%), due to lower production in 2016/17. Lampante oil prices rose in Spain (+7%). Linseed oil prices fell in Argentina (-7%).

3 Mintec Market Report February Grains Maize prices fell in Brazil (-8%) and Argentina (-1%), but rose on CBOT US (+1%) and Euronext Paris (+2%). Milling wheat prices rose on CBOT US (+4%), in the UK (+4%), on Euronext Paris (+2%) and in Germany (+1%), due to concerns that severe cold weather damaged crops across Europe. However, milling wheat prices fell on ASX Australia (-2%). Feed wheat prices rose in the UK (+4%), remained stable in Hungary (0%), but fell on ICE Europe (-1%). Durum wheat prices fell on ICE Canada (-8%), in France (- 7%) and Italy (-4%), but remained stable in the US (0%). Barley feed prices fell on ICE Canada (-3%), but rose in France (+1%), on ASX Australia (+2%) and in Germany (+2%). Basmati rice prices rose in Pakistan (+31%) and India (+26%), due to expectations that Iran, the largest importer of Indian rice, would lift its import ban. White paddy prices fell on CBOT US (-4%), but remained stable in Vietnam (0%). Oat prices rose on CBOT US (+1%), but fell in Finland (-1%). Rye prices rose in Finland (+3%). Ingredients Hazelnut prices continued to fall in Turkey (-3%). Almond prices were down in Spain (-3%), and also fell in the US (-2%). Peanut prices fell in Argentina (-1%), but remained stable in Brazil (0%) and the US (0%). Cashew prices rose in Vietnam (+4%). Pine nut prices declined in China (-7%). For dried fruit, raisins fell in the US (-4%) and Turkey (-1%), while sultana prices rose in Turkey (+1%). Turkish dried apricot prices declined (-2%). Desiccated coconut prices rose in the Philippines (+17%). For spices, black pepper prices fell in India (-10%), Malaysia (-7%), Vietnam (-3%) and Indonesia (-2%). White pepper prices fell in Indonesia (-6%), remained unchanged in Vietnam (0%), but rose in Malaysia (+3%). In India, coriander declined (-9%), but turmeric prices were marginally up (+1%) on NCDEX. Indian chilli prices remained steady (0%). Prices in Germany rose for Indian sesame seed (+13%), but remained stable for Czech poppy seed (0%). Tapioca starch prices remained unchanged in Thailand (0%). Fruit Apple prices on average remained unchanged in the EU (0%), with slight declines seen in the UK (-1%); however, prices were unchanged in Germany (0%) and Poland (0%). Pear prices fell on average in the EU (-1%), with prices rising in Italy (+7%), remaining stable in Spain and Poland (0%), but falling in France (-3%) and the UK (-3%). Banana prices rose in Spain (+23%) and Poland (+3%), but fell in the UK (-1%) and Germany (-1%). Prices for grapes rose in the UK (+7%), but remained unchanged in Spain (0%). Lemon prices remained stable in the UK (0%) and Spain (0%). Lime prices fell in Germany (-6%), but remained stable in the UK (0%) and Spain (0%). Grapefruit prices fell in Spain (-15%). Galia melons were down in the UK (-8%) and Spain (-4%). Apple concentrate prices were down in China (-1%), due to apple juice production in China expected up 10% y-o-y in 2016/17. Orange juice concentrate was up on ICE US (+2%).

4 Mintec Market Report February Vegetables Potato prices rose on average in the EU (+2%), with prices up in Germany (+6%), Poland (+5%), Spain (+5%) and the UK (+3%), however, prices fell in Belgium (-3%) and France (-12%). Onion prices fell on average in the EU (-8%), with declines seen in France (-35%) and the Netherlands (-17%). Onion prices rose in Germany (+2%) and Poland (+6%), but remained stable in Spain (0%) and the UK (0%). Tomato prices fell in the UK (-30%) as supplies from southern Europe improved; however, prices rose slightly in Spain (+2%). Cherry tomato prices were up in Germany (+25%). Cucumber prices fell in the UK (-16%) and France (-16%), but rose in the Netherlands (+2%). Runner bean prices rose in Germany (+7%). Carrot prices were up in Poland (+10%) and Germany (+4%), remained steady in France (0%), but fell in the UK (-5%). Cabbage prices increased in the UK (+16%) and Germany (+7%). Broccoli prices were down on average across the EU (-50%), with declines seen in the UK (-57%), France (-51%) and Spain (-34%). Meat and poultry Deadweight beef prices rose in the EU (+1%), mostly driven by rising prices in France (+3%). Beef prices remained stable in the UK (0%), Germany (0%) and Ireland (0%), due to a balance between low domestic demand and rising exports. Globally, beef prices fell in Brazil (-3%), Uruguay (-2%) and Australia (-2%). Lamb prices rose in New Zealand (+4%), but remained stable in the EU (0%). In the EU, lamb prices fell in Spain (-12%), Portugal (-9%), France (-6%), Italy (-5%), Greece (-3%) and Austria (- 1%), but rose in the UK (+1%), Germany (+2%), the Netherlands (+2%) and Poland (+3%). Pork prices rose in the EU (+1%), due to a reduction in the pig breeding herd size. Prices rose in the Netherlands (+5%), Portugal (+4%), France (+4%), Ireland (+3%), Spain (+3%) and the UK (+1%); however, remained stable in Denmark (0%), Poland (0%) and Belgium (0%). In the US, pork prices continued to rise (+10%). Chicken deadweight prices remained stable in the EU (0%). Chicken prices rose in Italy (+6%), Belgium (+2%), Poland (+2%), Denmark (+1%), Spain (+1%) and Portugal (+1%). In the UK, chicken prices fell (- 7%), due to rising chick placements. Chicken prices rose in Brazil (+2%). Milk and dairy Butter prices fell in the EU (-5%), due to a slowdown in domestic demand. In the EU, butter prices fell in the UK (-10%), Poland (-8%), France (-5%), Belgium (-4%) and Germany (-1%). Butter prices rose in New Zealand (+4%), due to low supplies of milk fat; however, prices fell in the US (-2%). Prices for cheese in the EU fell for Gouda (-10%), Edam (-6%) and UK Cheddar (-2%), but rose for Emmental (+2%). Elsewhere, cheese prices fell for New Zealand cheddar (-5%), US Mozzarella (-4%) and US Cheddar (-1%). EU SMP prices fell in Germany (-8%), France (-6%) and the Netherlands (-6%). Elsewhere, SMP prices fell in the US (-13%), but rose in New Zealand (+1%). EU WMP prices fell in the Netherlands (-5%), Germany (-4%) and France (-2%). WMP prices remained stable in New Zealand (0%). Shell egg prices fell in the EU (-2%), due to low seasonal demand. EU shell egg prices fell in France (-11%), Spain (-5%), Poland (-4%), Portugal (-3%) and Germany (-2%), but rose in Italy (+1%), Hungary (+2%), Bulgaria (+2%) and the UK (+3%). Free range birds which have been kept indoors over the past 12 weeks over Avian flu concerns must now classify themselves as cage-free or barn eggs.

5 Mintec Market Report February Chemicals and plastics Prices for petrochemicals rose in the EU for styrene (+26%), orthoxylene (+15%), propylene (+12%), ethylene (+8%), benzene (+6%) and toluene (+6%), while remaining stable for butadiene (0%) and paraxylene (0%). Ethylene glycol prices remained stable in the EU (0%) and the US (0%). Plastic prices in the EU rose for PS (+18%), PET (+8%), PP (+4%), PVC (+3%) and LDPE (+1%), while remaining stable for HDPE (0%) and LLDPE (0%). Plastic prices in China rose for PET (+8%), LLDPE (+4%), PVC (+3%), HDPE (+2%) and LDPE (+1%), remained stable for butadiene (0%), but fell for ethylene Asia (-1%). Acid prices remained stable for hydrochloric acid in Italy (0%) and sulphuric acid in the EU (0%). Fertiliser prices in the US fell for urea (-5%), but rose for phosphoric acid (+4%) and DAP (+4%). Pulp and paper Global pulp shipments fell 12% m-o-m, but rose 11% y-o-y in January to 4.0m tonnes. Global inventories fell by one day m-o-m but remained stable y-o-y at 35 days of supply. European softwood pulp inventories fell 6% m-o-m but rose 2% y-o-y to 2.0m tonnes. In days, softwood pulp inventories stood at 17 days of supply, down by one day m-o-m, but remaining stable y-o-y. Reduced supply in Europe caused EU pulp prices to rise, with BHK (+4%) and NBSK (+1%) prices up. European prices for testliner (+5%) and fluting (+5%) rose; however, kraftliner (0%) remained stable. EU prices for newsprint (0%) and coated paper (0%) remained stable. Pulp prices rose in the US for NBSK (+2%). In China, BHK (+5%) and NBSK (+4%) pulp prices rose. Energy Brent crude oil prices on ICE London (+1%) and light sweet crude oil prices on NYMEX US (+1%) rose, due to OPEC and non-opec countries continuing to comply with the agreed production cuts. However, prices were weighed down by the strength of the US dollar and high US stocks. Diesel prices rose in the US (+1%) and the EU (+1%), due to high demand for heating oil as a result of the cold weather. Petrol prices rose in the EU (+2%), due to high demand from Asia and the Middle East, and limited production while several European refineries started maintenance. Petrol fell in the US (-1%), due to high stocks. Gas oil prices remained stable on ICE EU (0%). Natural gas prices fell on NYMEX US (-17%), Bacton terminal NBP (-14%) and ICE London (-10%), due to high stocks. Coal prices rose in the EU (+8%) and the US (+3%), due to a shortfall in supply led by production cuts in China.

6 Mintec Market Report February Metals Base metal prices rose on the LME for nickel (+11%), zinc (+3%), aluminium (+2%) and copper (+2%), due to high demand and falling stocks; however, prices fell for lead (-3%) and tin (-4%). Prices in the EU fell for hot rolled steel (HR) (-4%) and cold rolled steel (CR) (-2%). Prices in China rose for both HR (+3%) and CR (+2%), due to rising demand and raw material costs for coking coal and iron ore. Prices in the US fell for CR (-4%) and for HR (-3%). Chinese iron prices rose for ore (+12%) and pellets (+6%), due to increased demand from the construction industry. For precious metals in London, prices rose for silver (+6%), rhodium (+5%), gold (+3%), palladium (+2%) and platinum (+1%). Others Nylon CN (+24%), Acrylic fibre CN (+13%), Lumber US (+11%), Viscose CN (+5%), Polyester CN (+4%), Rubber MY (+4%), Cotton US (+1%), Wool NZ (-1%), Rubber TH (-8%).

7 Mintec Market Report February Company profile Mintec Limited Mintec has a long and successful history of working in partnership with sales, purchasing and supply chain professionals, primarily in the retail, manufacturing and food service sectors. We deliver unique understanding and valuable insight into a vast range of worldwide commodity and raw materials markets. Using innovative technology and a highly experienced and knowledgeable team of specialists, we have the proven ability to provide independent insight and trusted, authoritative data, and to translate this into expert analysis. This expertise helps the world s most prestigious brands to make the intelligent, informed decisions needed to reduce costs, manage risks and realise commercial opportunities in order to reach their business objectives. Mintec Ltd Gloucester House Unit Q Bourne End Business Park Cores End Road Bourne End SL8 5AS United Kingdom t: +44 (0) e: support@mintecglobal.com w: All Rights Reserved Mintec Ltd has endeavoured to ensure that Mintec Ltd has the rights to use all images, company names and information contained within these documents. All materials contained in these documents are protected by copyright laws, and may not be reproduced, republished, distributed or otherwise exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of Mintec Ltd. You may utilise this information for your own personal and commercial use only, without altering or removing any trademark, copyright or other notice from such material.