Seasonal trends in hectares planted, sales volumes on markets and market prices. Pieter van Zyl, Potatoes South Africa

Transcription

1 Seasonal trends in hectares planted, sales volumes on markets and market prices Pieter van Zyl, Potatoes South Africa Producers plant between 5 and 54 hectares of potatoes each year. According to Figure 1 most hectares are planted between September and October. A number of regions are then planting, such as the Eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, North West, South Western Free State, Sandveld and Gauteng. According to Figure 2 it would appear as if no major changes took place in the months of planting over time. The seasonal trend within a calendar year is indicated and expressed as an index with 1 representing the average monthly plantings for the year. For the four year period, 213 to 216, the September plantings are nearly 6% more than the average monthly plantings over time. The March plantings, again, are 4% lower than the monthly average plantings, according to Figure 2. It would appear as if from January to March slightly less potatoes are planted (213 to 216), whereas more are planted in September and October. April was always the month with the least plantings, but it has now shifted to March. Page 48 CHIPS Julie/Augustus 217

2 Figure 1: RSA: Hectares planted per month 16 Seasonal trend: RSA hectares planted per month 14 Persentasie till till 216 Figure 2: Seasonal trend: RSA hectares planted per month Figure 3 indicates the seasonal trend for sales on markets in a calendar year and is expressed as an index with 1 representing the average monthly sales for the year. For the four year period, 213 to 216, November had the highest sales on markets whereas January, February and March reflected the lowest sales figures. It differs slightly from the period 2 to 23 when the highest sales were recorded in March and July. Note the drop in volume for September during the two periods. Prices normally then also start reacting positively (see Figure 4 which reflects price trends within a calendar year). For the periods 2 to 23 and 211 to 214 the CHIPS July/August 217 Page 49

3 11 Seasonal trend: Monthly sales volumes on markets 15 Persentasie Figure 3: Seasonal trend: Monthly sales volumes on markets 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2 till till till 216 Figure 4: Seasonal trend: Average market price per month seasonal trend in price movements during a calendar year are nearly the same, according to Figure 4. It indicates that prices are normally lowest during March and highest during October. During October prices are nearly 3% higher compared to the average monthly price for the year. The seasonal trend for the period 213 to 216 deviates from the trend in the other two periods. The reason being that 215 (by far the biggest crop to date) and 216 (significant drought and heat damage) were abnormal years. The inclining lower prices from January to March every year (first two mentioned periods) are primarily ascribable to weather conditions. It is during summer when temperatures are higher, especially together with higher rainfall in the production regions, that prices get under pressure because of the poorer Page 5 CHIPS Julie/Augustus 217

4 Hectares Eastern FS Western FS Limpopo Sandveld Size of harvest (million bags) Hectares average (2-23) Hectares average ( ) Size of harvest average (2-23) Size of harvest average ( ) Figure 5: Average hectares planted and size of harvest over a 4 year period for different regions Figure 6: Eastern Free State: 4 year average sales volumes per week on markets quality / keeping ability of potatoes. Towards end of March / beginning of April, when the first autumn chill is normally experienced, the quality/keeping ability of potatoes improves (see Figure 4 that indicates that prices then normally start to experience upward pressure). Figure 5 indicates certain trends for the four largest production regions. In respect of hectares planted, it is clear that the Western Free State, and especially Limpopo, have been planting significantly more hectares during the past number of years (see the corresponding blue and green columns for the two periods as indicated). The red squares and the black dots in Figure 5 indicates the regions different average crop sizes for the two periods. The Western CHIPS July/August 217 Page 51

5 Figure 7: Western Free State: 4 year average sales volumes per week on markets Figure 8: Limpopo: 4 year average sales volumes per week on markets Free State and Limpopo average crop sizes increased by about 2 million bags each in between the two periods. Even the Sandveld average crop size increased by about 1 million bags, irrespective of the fact that the same hectares were more or less planted. In Figures 6 to 8 the weekly trends over time in respect of the market sales of three production regions are indicated. Naturally more bags are now sold than in the past (see the red lines). It is clear that the Eastern Free State producers are now entering the market slightly earlier and are also longer in the market than in the past (Figure 6). However, the Western Free State producers are now entering the market much earlier than in the past. If the hectares planted per month over time are studied, there is no clear indication that producers are necessarily planting earlier. The same applies for Limpopo. Producers simply planted more hectares per month. See also Limpopo s sales trends over time in Figure 8. Producers are entering the market earlier, but only because more hectares are planted and not necessarily earlier. C Page 52 CHIPS Julie/Augustus 217