Outlook for the World Coffee Market
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- Derrick Taylor
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1 Outlook for the World Coffee Market International Coffee Council 26-3 September 211 London, England José Sette Executive Director a.i. ICO composite indicator price Daily: 1 October 29 to 26 September US cents per pound
2 US cents/lb ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: March 1965 to August 211 in current terms ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: March 1965 to August 211 deflated by UN index for manufactured goods exports (2 = 1) US cents/lb
3 35 ICO group indicator prices Monthly: January 199 to August 211 in current terms 3 25 US cents per lb Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 2 Arbitrage: New York London Monthly averages 2 nd and 3 rd positions January 199 to August US cents per pound
4 New York ICE futures settlement prices 1 st to 14 th positions on 27 September US cents per pound World Production Crop years 2/1 to 211/12* /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* 4
5 Production: 1 leading producers (Volume in bags - % of world production) 29/1 21/11 % change Brazil % Vietnam % Colombia % Indonesia % Ethiopia % India % Honduras % Mexico % Peru % Guatemala % 35 Production: Washed Arabicas Crop years 2/1 to 211/ /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* Colombia All other washed Arabicas 5
6 Production: Natural Arabicas and Robustas Crop years 2/1 to 211/ /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11* 211/12* Brazilian Naturals Robustas Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 1964 to *Preliminary 6
7 Inventories in importing countries Calendar years 1964 to *Preliminary World stocks/consumption relation 1964 to
8 Inventories in importing countries December 21 and June 211* Dec 1 Jun 11* Change ( bags) All importing countries European Union Belgium Italy Germany France Others *Preliminary Japan Norway Switzerland USA Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2 to 211* * 8
9 Exports by group and by type of coffee October to July ( bags) 21/11 29/1 Change Total % 1% Colombian Milds % Other Milds % Brazilian Naturals % Robustas % Arabicas % Robustas % Exports by the top 1 exporting countries October to July ( bags) 21/11 29/1 Change Brazil % Vietnam % Colombia % India % Indonesia % Honduras % Guatemala % Peru % Ethiopia % Uganda % 9
10 Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Washed Arabicas months commencing Colombia All other Washed Arabicas Exports to all destinations cumulative 12 months Brazilian Naturals and Robustas months commencing Brazilian Naturals Robustas 1
11 Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2 to billion US dollars * 211* World consumption Calendar years 2 to 21* * 11
12 World coffee consumption Evolution 2 21 (in thousand bags) Change (21) (2) 2 21* Volume % Period growth rate (%) Traditional markets Producing countries Emerging markets World total Estimated consumption: 1 leading markets by volume 29 21* % change World ldtotalt USA Brazil Germany Japan France Italy Russian Federation Canada Spain United Kingdom
13 Total consumption Growth rates in traditional markets 2 21 Annual growth rate TOTAL % USA % Germany % Japan % France % Italy % Spain % United Kingdom % Netherlands % Sweden % Finland % Retail price of roasted coffee (in national currency/unit of weight) Country Dec 9 Dec 1 Jun 11 Change from Dec 9 to Jun 11 Belgium (EUR/kg) % Denmark (DKK/kg) % Finland (EUR/5g) % France (EUR/25g) % Germany (EUR/kg) % Italy (EUR/kg) % Spain (EUR/25g) % Sweden (SEK/5g) % United Kingdom 1/ (GBP/1g) % Japan (JPY/1g) % Norway (NOK/kg) % USA (USD/lb) % 1/ Soluble coffee 13
14 Total consumption Growth rates in producing countries 2 21 Annual growth rate Total Brazil Indonesia Ethiopia Mexico India Others Total consumption Growth rates in emerging markets 2 21 Annual growth rate Ttl Total % 3.8% Russian Federation % Poland % Algeria % Korea, Rep. of % Ukraine % Australia % Romania % Turkey % Israel % South Africa, Rep.of % Serbia % 14
15 Thank you 15
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