UAE-INDIA-AFRICA Commodities Trade Triangle. May Rabobank Group

Transcription

1 UAE-INDIA-AFRICA Commodities Trade Triangle May 216 Rabobank Group

2 Table of contents Sections SOUTHERN AFRICA I 1 SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE II 8 EASTERN AFRICA III 13 IV V INDIA - UAE TRADE CONTACT DETAILS

3 Data Sourcing and Reliability This research exercise has utilized a number of sources in collection and verification of data pertaining commodities import and export flows between economies. Data has, by and large, been verified and found to be reliable with minimal variation between authoritative sources except for the case of Angola where data has been patchy and UN Comtrade used as the sole source. The main sources of data for this exercise are: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database ( UN Comtrade) - This has been the primary source of data given the interest in commodities trade involving the United Arab Emirates, India and Rabobank Africa economies. The research findings provide the top ten commodities traded between the economies as reported in 214 Ministry of Commerce and Industry India and Ministry of Economy United Arab Emirates - These have been used for verification of data reported by UN Comtrade Business Monitor International, World Integrated Trade Solution (World Bank) and OEC Data - These have been used as an additional sound board for the reliability of data reported by aforementioned sources Note: There are instances in which a commodity can be found both in the import and export of a country/region (for example, Mineral Fuels and Oils are both Southern Africa s top export to and top import from India). This is attributable to the practice of re-exports between economies in view of value addition. i

4 Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, Ministry of Commerce and Trade India, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa ii

5 I SOUTHERN AFRICA

6 Rabobank Southern Africa: Region at a Glance GDP Size: USD Bln GDP per Capita: USD 4,311.4 Average Regional GDP Growth 9 14: 5.2% Population: Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) 4 14: 2.1% Regional GDP by States 5.3% 3.2% Population 12,, 23.2% 115,, 11,, 15,, South Africa Angola Zambia Mozambique 68.3% 1,, 95,, Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, StratLink Africa 2

7 Rabobank Southern Africa Key Highlights South Africa - Attractive Outlook for Both India and UAE: South Africa dominates trade between the Southern African region and both UAE and India backed by years of strong bilateral ties and South Africa s standing as a major trade and commerce hub in Africa. We expect the ties with India to be strengthened further in the coming years following the two economies co-existence in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) which seeks to cement co-operation between emerging markets Zambia - Growing Ties with India Bolters Outlook: Zambia s trade with India is on the uptick especially from the imports standpoint whereas trade with the UAE is tending towards flat-lining in both imports and exports. India and Zambia have signed a number of bilateral agreements in the last decade and are bound to remain strategic partners going forward. Zambia s Ministry of Trade indicated in 212 that is seeks to increase total trade with India to exceed USD 1. Billion from an estimated USD 375. Million at the earliest possible. As of 214, total trade has grown by 17.5% to USD Million. Between 29 and 214, Zambia posted the fastest growth in imports from India (CAGR) at 25.4% compared to South Africa s 2.6% and Mozambique s 6.% Mozambique - Attractive Outlook on trade with UAE: Trade between Mozambique and UAE is growing strongly reflecting heightened efforts in the last decade to boost trade. Reports indicate that Mozambique has urged UAE to use it as the gateway to the Southern African market. Mozambique s imports from UAE grew by 44.6% between 29 and 214, compared to South Africa s 25.8% and Zambia s 19.8%. The country s exports to UAE grew by 69.6% in the same period, outpacing South Africa s 18.1% and Zambia s 1.4% Key Development: The India Africa Summit has grown in prominence as a major global forum that is linking one of the world s major emerging economies (India) with major frontier markets in the African region. We expect to see strengthened ties, trade and otherwise, in the next decade especially as India looks to countervail the dominance of China in Africa Sources: The Hindu Newspaper, UN Comtrade, gulfnews.com, StratLink Africa 3

8 Southern Africa Exports To India Angola s Crude Petroleum Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Copper Exports to India (USD) 9,,, 8,,, 7,,, 7,951,254,612 6,729,543,31 3,, 25,, 257,667,96 266,217,365 6,,, 5,,, 4,82,64,36 5,944,948,844 5,462,948,213 2,, 188,68,682 4,,, 15,, 3,,, 2,,, 1,,, ,, 5,, 1,29,67 84,82, Note: Angola is the only country in (Rabobank) Southern Africa exporting Crude Petroleum to India This refers to Copper (refined and unrefined), Copper Alloys and Copper Anodes Only Zambia and South Africa export copper to India 4

9 Southern Africa Exports To India (Cont d) Southern Africa Lead Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Aluminum Exports to India (USD) 5,, 4,5, 4,756,322 9,, 8,, 85,453,96 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 3,624,311 2,92,577 2,469,421 2,617,556 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 54,4,718 67,442,28 56,984,58 18,134,95 5, 1,, This refers Lead and Lead Alloys (Unwrought) 21 data includes South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and Angola; 211 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 212 and 214 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 213 data includes only Mozambique and South Africa This refers Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys (Unwrought) Only South Africa and Angola export the commodity to India 5

10 India Exports to Southern Africa India s Sugar Exports to Southern Africa (USD) India s Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD) 7,, 6,, 5,, 6,15,649 18,, 16,, 14,, 15,783,447 4,, 12,, 3,, 1,, 8,, Surge a ributed to massive imports by Mozambique that stood at $ 14,687,477 2,, 2,43,849 6,, 1,, 627,96 87,223 69, ,, 2,, 1,337,246 71, ,954 26, , 211, 213 and 214 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 212 data includes Angola, South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer 21 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 211 and 212 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 213 data has only Mozambique and South Africa whilst 214 data has only Angola and South Africa 6

11 Southern Africa Top Exports to India 213 (USD) Wood Pulp & Fibrous Cellulosic Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Copper Aluminium Precious Metals Pearls & Precious Stones Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic) Ores, Slag & Ash Iron & Steel Mineral Fuels & Oils ,27 2, 4, 6, 8, Millions India Top Exports to Southern Africa 213 (USD) Pearls & Precious Metals Meat & Edible Meat Offal Iron & Steel Chemicals & Chemical Products Cereals Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Electricals & Electronic Equipment Pharmaceuticals Vehicles (other then rail & tramway) Mineral Fuels & Oils Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa , 1,5 2, Millions 1,29 1,8 7

12 II SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE

13 Southern Africa Exports to UAE Zambia Copper Exports to UAE (USD) Southern Africa Aluminium Exports to UAE (USD) 25,, 3,, 2,, 186,74,3 225,498,345 25,, 25,669, 15,, 1,, 16,373, ,673,449 2,, 15,, 1,, 18,62,772 16,75,592 13,19,616 11,156,871 5,, 53,135,27 5,, Only Zambia exports Copper to the UAE This refers to Aluminum and Aluminum alloys South Africa is the main exporter 9

14 UAE Exports to Southern Africa UAE Crude Petroleum Exports to Southern Africa (USD) UAE Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD) 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 556,52,68 473,945,65 452,573, ,925,933 1,, 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 93,16,28 63,547,95 63,658,423 4,, 5,, 5,431,563 3,, 2,, 1,, 256,31,463 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 14,274, South Africa and Zambia import crude petroleum from the UAE South Africa accounts for over 9.% of the crude petroleum imports This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer 21 and 211 data has only South Africa and Zambia; 212, 213 and 214 include Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia 1

15 Southern Africa Top Exports to UAE 213 (USD) Ores, Slag & Ash Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Vehicles (Except Rail & Tramway) Iron & Steel Electricals & Electronic Equipment Beverages, Spirits & Vinegar Edible Fruits, Vegetables, Roots & Nuts Copper Mineral Fuels & Oils Precious Metals & Stones , 1,2 1,79 Millions UAE Top Exports to Southern Africa 213 (USD) Textile Articles Precious Metals & Stones Inorganic Chemicals Cereals Plastics & Articles thereof Fertilizer Electricals & Electronic Equipment Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Mineral Fuels & Oils Vehicles (Other than Rail & Tramways) Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa ,57 1, , 1,2 Millions 11

16 Rabobank Southern Africa: Regional Perspective Trade with UAE (214) Trade with India 214 (USD) 1.% 1.% 9.% 9.% 8.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 92.1% Imports from UAE 86.2% Exports to UAE 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 91.% 88.9% Imports from India Exports to India Rabobank Southern Africa Other Southern Africa Rabobank Southern Africa Other Southern Africa Other Southern Africa: Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Malawi Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 12

17 III EASTERN AFRICA

18 Rabobank Eastern Africa: Region at a Glance GDP Size: USD Bln GDP per Capita: USD 737. Average Regional GDP Growth 9 14: 6.6% Population: Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) 4 14: 2.9% Regional GDP by States 4.4% 14.6% 21.2% 31.3% Population 25,,. 24,,. 23,,. 22,,. 21,,. 2,,. 19,,. 28.4% Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Rwanda 18,, Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, StratLink Africa 14

19 Rabobank Eastern Africa Key Highlights Kenya - Positive outlook for both India and UAE: Kenya, often referred to as the gateway to Eastern Africa remains an important trade partner for UAE in the Eastern African region owing to its status as the distribution and business hub of Eastern Africa. We anticipate stronger ties between Kenya and UAE after the latter announced plans to upgrade its Nairobi mission to be the largest in Africa. Similarly, India and Kenya have growing commercial and trade ties and India remains the largest exporter to Kenya. In 214, Kenya signed a trade agreement with the UAE, The Promotion and Protection of Investments, which we expect should bolster trade between the two countries Tanzania - Growing ties with both UAE and India: Tanzania has emerged as a noteworthy trading partner for both India and UAE, making it the highest Eastern Africa importer to both countries. India and Tanzania have signed a number of bilateral agreements in the last decade that have served to bolster trade between the two countries. Notably, the changing dynamics of Tanzania s trade relations, from developed markets to emerging markets in the past five years, have underscored the growing importance of nontraditional trade partners, such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Uganda - Plateaud Trade with Positive Outlook for UAE: Trade between Uganda and both India and UAE has been on a general flat lining trend in the past decade particularly from the exports perspective. Uganda and UAE signed a double taxation memorandum of understanding in 214 that is expected to boost bilateral relations between the partners going forward. Similarly, in August 215, UAE announced plans to set up free trade zones in Uganda enhancing trade outlook between the two partners Rwanda - Enhanced Outlook from Growing ties with India: Trade between Rwanda, which has consistently ranked as the most competitive economy in the region, and both UAE and India is highly skewed towards imports into Rwanda, while exports from Rwanda to the two nations are small. UAE exports to Rwanda declined by 87.4% to USD 2.1 Million in between 211 and 214, a matter that could have prompted the visit by the UAE minister of State for Foreign Affairs to Rwanda in February 215 to strengthen bilateral and trade ties. On the other hand, India exports to Rwanda increased three-fold to USD Million over the same period, reflecting a probable shift in trading partners Ethiopia - Positive Outlook on Trade with UAE: Imports from UAE have been on the uptick, while exports to UAE tend to be flat-lining. Imports from UAE increased four-fold to USD between 211 and 214 signaling growing ties. The strengthening ties are attributed to opening up of UAE embassy in Ethiopia in 21 as well as the Dubai s Annual Africa Global Business Forum, which has played a significant role in improving the bilateral trade relations between the two countries. We expect that the newly established Ethio-UAE Joint Ministerial Commission will strengthen the bilateral relations going forward Sources: The Hindu Newspaper, Gulf News, All Africa.com, The Monitor, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 15

20 Eastern Africa Exports to India Eastern Africa Coffee Exports to India (USD) 2,, Eastern Africa Cocoa Exports to India (USD) 12,, 18,, 18,92,5 16,87,8 1,, 1,339,428 16,, 8,, 14,, 6,, 5,717,627 12,, 1,581,2 12,212,9 4,, 3,237,329 4,86,673 1,, 2,, 1,896,968 8,644,1 8,, This refers to unroasted coffee exclusively 21 includes data for Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda; 211, 212 and 213 include data for Kenya and Uganda only; whilst 214 includes data for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania This refers to raw Cocoa beans only Data between 21 and 212 covers Uganda only whilst that of 213, 214 and 215 suggests Tanzania began exporting Cocoa beans to India Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 16

21 India Exports to Eastern Africa India Rice Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) India Edible Oil Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 55,, 5, 5,, 45,, 4,, 5,782,938 44,323,998 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, Surge a ributed to massive imports by Mozambique that stood at $ 14,687, ,61 291,279 35,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 34,69,897 33,161, , 15, 1, 5, 52,46 65,889 28, data includes only Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. 212, 213, and 214 include the four countries plus Rwanda This refers to oil from Soya Beans 21 data has only Ethiopia; 211 data has only Ethiopia and Kenya; 212 data has only Kenya; 213 and 214 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 17

22 India Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont d) India Sugar Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 12,, India Fertilizer Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 2,5, 1,, 13,649,676 2,, 1,924,538 1,772,846 1,966,85 8,, 6,, 66,429,94 1,5, 1,336,569 4,, 4,57,657 41,118,24 1,, 783,823 2,, 5, This refers to Sugar (Beet or Cane in solid form) 211 data reflects Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda whilst that for 212, 213 and 214 includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Ethiopia This refers Nitrogenous Fertilizer 21 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania; 211, 213 and 214 includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania; 212 Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 18

23 India Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont d) India Wheat Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 9,, 8,, 85,22,574 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 25,485,962 1,, This refers to Wheat (including Spelt and Meslin), unmilled Data includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania 19

24 Eastern Africa Top Exports to India 213 (USD) Fish, crustaceans, molluscs Raw hides, skins and leather Wood and articles of wood Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotope Coffee, tea, mate and spices Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat glute Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, Millions India Top Exports to Eastern Africa 213 (USD) Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa Sugars and sugar confectionery Plastics and articles thereof Articles of iron or steel Cereals Electrical, electronic equipment Vehicles other than railway, tramway Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery Iron and steel Pharmaceutical products Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, Millions 4,38 5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 2

25 Eastern Africa Exports to UAE Eastern Africa Coffee Exports to UAE (USD) Eastern Africa Cocoa Exports to UAE (USD) 1,, 9,, 8,, 8,676,56 35, 3, 299,587 7,, 6,, 5,, 5,27,678 25, 2, 195,985 4,, 15, 3,, 2,, 1,, 547, ,68 2,92,89 1, 5, data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda; 211, 212 and 214 data include only Ethiopia and Uganda; 213 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania Only Uganda exports Cocoa to the United Arab Emirates There was no data available between 21 and 212. This could also suggest there were no Cocoa exports to UAE in those years Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 21

26 Eastern Africa Exports to UAE (Cont d) Eastern Africa s Zinc Exports to UAE (USD) UAE Rice Export to Eastern Africa (USD) 4, 1,8, 35, 34,22 1,6, 1,599,383 3, 1,4, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 4,32 17,354 25,8 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 885, , ,239 54, This refers to Zinc Ores and Concentrates Only Uganda exports Zinc to the UAE There was no data reported for 213 Note: Data for 21 and 213 includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda; 211 and 212 include Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania; 214 includes Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 22

27 UAE Exports to Eastern Africa UAE Fertilizer Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) UAE Sugar Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 9,, 8,, 7,, 7,733,29 25,, 2,, 22,976,865 6,, 5,, 15,, Surge a ributed to steep rise in demand from Ethiopia that stood at $ 19,41,246 4,, 3,, 2,, 3,382,46 2,146,762 1,, 5,, 3,545,283 2,996,67 9,895,367 1,, 1,4, This refers to nitrogenous fertilizer 21 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia; 211 and 212 include only Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania; 213 data includes only Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania This refers to Sugar (beet or cane in solid form) 21 data includes Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania; 211 and 212 include only Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania; 213 data includes only Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 23

28 UAE Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont d) UAE Edible Oil Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) UAE Maize Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) 2,5, 2,, 2,115,71 18, 16, 14, 163,391 1,5, 1,, 5, 437,973 1,283,15 728,16 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 84,91 51,933 46,872 99,735 2, This refers to oil from Soya Beans 21, 211 and 212 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Ethiopia; 213 data includes only Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania This refers to unmilled maize 21 and 213 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia; 211 and 214 data includes Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania; 212 data includes Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 24

29 Eastern Africa Top Exports to UAE 213 (USD) Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates ne Live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers etc Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Electrical, electronic equipment Meat and edible meat offal Coffee, tea, mate and spices Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins Millions UAE Top Exports to Eastern Africa 213 (USD) Miscellaneous chemical products Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Sugars and sugar confectionery Vehicles other than railway, tramway Electrical, electronic equipment Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Plastics and articles thereof Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, Millions 2,8 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 25

30 IV INDIA - UAE TRADE

31 UAE and INDIA: Economies at a Glance United Arab Emirates GDP Size: USD 39. Bln GDP per Capita: USD 43,333.3 Average GDP Growth 9 14: 4.1% Population (214): 9.1 Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) 9 14: 4.6% India GDP Size: USD 2,54.8 Bln GDP per Capita: USD 1, Average GDP Growth 9 14: 7.3% Population (214): 1,295.3 Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) 9 14: 1.3% UAE Real GDP Growth vs Population India Real GDP Growth vs Population 9,3, 9,1, 8,9, 8,7, 8,5, 8,3, 8,1, 7,9, 7,7, 7,5, % 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% -3.% 1,32. 1,3. 1,28. 1,26. 1,24. 1,22. 1, % 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Population GDP (RHS) Population (Mln) GDP (RHS) Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, UAE Ministry of Economy, StratLink Africa 27

32 India s Exports to and Imports from UAE(USD Billions) UAE - Declining Trade: The UAE and India have enjoyed close political and economic ties which have translated into a rapidly expanding economic partnership. This has made India UAE s second largest trading partner. However, trade between India and UAE is trending towards a decline Both India s exports to and imports from UAE declined by 4.3% and 27.8% to 32.9 Billion and 27.3 Billion, respectively, in 214. The decline in trade could be attributed to the soured relations between the partners after UAE s open criticism of India during the 213 Indo-Pakistan border clashes Exports Imports We expect increasing trade ties going forward, nonetheless, in view of the August 215 visit by India s Prime minister after a 34-year hiatus. Moreover, India and the UAE have several trade pacts including the critical Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement signed in 213 with a view to the UAE investing USD 2. Billion in Indian infrastructure projects Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 28

33 India Exports to UAE India Maize Exports to UAE (USD) India Wheat Exports to UAE (USD) 45,, 4,, 4,867,797 18,, 16,, 17,16, ,289,496 35,, 14,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 22,743,375 21,952,929 12,, 1,, 8,, 11,294,22 15,, 1,, 1,26,382 12,439,421 6,, 4,, 5,, ,, 56 11,734, Note: This refers to Maize (not including sweet corn), unmilled Note: This refers to Wheat (including spelt) and meslin, unmilled 29

34 India Exports to UAE (Cont d) India Zinc Exports to UAE (USD) India Lead Exports to UAE (USD) 45,, 4,, 35,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 32,123,46 41,741,749 31,345,41 41,81,73 2,, 18,, 16,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 9,274,52 18,479,827 6,29,249 4,838,942 5,, 4,69, ,, 238, Note: This refers to Zinc and alloys, unwrought Note: This refers to Lead and Lead alloys, unwrought 3

35 India Exports to UAE (Cont d) India Soya Beans Exports to UAE(USD) 8, India Rice Exports to UAE (USD) 9,, 7, 683,931 8,, 794,19,262 6, 611,417 7,, 643,8,92 5, 4, 3, 242, ,84 245,74 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 463,366, ,669,36 413,337,164 2, 2,, 1, 1,, Note: This refers to Soya Beans Note: This refers to whole rice and rice components 31

36 India Exports to UAE (Cont d) India Sugar Exports to UAE(USD) India Fertiliser Exports to UAE (USD) 18,, 16,, 166,776,999 8, 7, 682,938 14,, 6, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 56,272,36 28,299,22 11,24,761 19,77, , 4, 3, 2, 1, 397,643 27, ,524 31, Note: This refers to Sugars ( beet or cane, raw in solid form) not containing added flavouring or colouring matter Note: This refers to Nitrogenous Fertiliser 32

37 India Exports to UAE (Cont d) India Copper Exports to UAE (USD) 6,, 563,51,34 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 124,625,695 88,425,385 7,517,63 9,28, Note: This refers to Copper, refined and unrefined; copper anodes for electrolytic refining; copper alloys, unwrought 33

38 UAE Exports to India UAE Fertiliser Exports to India(USD) UAE Coffee Exports to India (USD) 25,, 21,247,266 1,, 9,, 9,52,468 2,, 15,, 12,65,886 13,93,647 15,411,75 13,11,98 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 6,334,39 7,446,638 5,83,61 6,62,276 1,, 4,, 3,, 5,, 2,, 1,, Note: This refers to Nitrogenous Fertiliser Note: This refers to Coffee (not roasted) whether or not decaffeinated 34

39 UAE Exports to India (Cont d) UAE Copper Exports to India (USD) UAE Zinc Exports to India (USD) 14,, 12,, 12,991,31 11,853,31 12,75,726 6,, 5,, 51,61,537 1,, 4,, 35,982,861 38,276,525 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 4,534,37 5,614,843 3,, 2,, 1,, 1,296,911 24,795, Note: This refers to Copper, refined and unrefined; copper anodes for electrolytic refining; copper alloys, unwrought Note: This refers to Copper, refined and unrefined; copper anodes for electrolytic refining; copper alloys, unwrought 35

40 UAE Exports to India (Cont d) UAE Lead Exports to India (USD) UAE Crude Petroleum Exports to India (USD) 8,, 7,, 6,, 7,299,691 72,781,525 59,492,78 54,342,95 57,76,41 14,,, 12,,, 1,,, 1,815,659,747 12,968,658,534 12,53,4,224 11,679,8,968 5,, 4,, 3,, 8,,, 6,,, 7,276,576,88 2,, 4,,, 1,, 2,,, Note: This refers to Lead and Lead alloys, unwrought Note: This refers to Crude Petroleum 36

41 India top Exports to UAE (USD) Ships & Boats Aircraft & Space Craft Apparel 979,1, 1,2,, 1,4,, Mineral Fuels & Oils 7,2,, Pearls & Precious Stones 11,7,, 4,,, 8,,, 12,,, UAE top Exports to India (USD) Iron & Steel Ships & Boats Copper & Copper Articles 588,5, 66,6, 66,4, Pearls & Precious Stones 8,6,, Mineral Fuels & Oils 14,4,, 5,,, 1,,, 15,,, 2,,, 37

42 Rabobank Intra-Africa Trade Key Highlights South Africa is the main source of exports from Rabobank Southern Africa to Rabobank Eastern Africa commanding 91.3% of total volumes in 214 followed by Mozambique at 4.4%. Key exports from Rabobank Southern Africa to Rabobank Eastern Africa are Iron and Steel and Mineral Fuels and Oils which are reported to have accounted for about 18.% and 12.% of total exports in 214. Tanzania and Kenya are the largest destinations of exports from Southern Africa accounting for 39.% and 4.% of total exports, respectively, in 214. Tanzania being a member to both the Eastern African Community and Southern African Development Community would be a strategic area of focus in harnessing the commodities trade potential between the two blocks Kenya is the main source of exports from Rabobank Eastern Africa to Rabobank Southern Africa having accounted for 78.3% of total volume in 214. Key exports are agriculture based including Coffee, Tea, Spices and horticultural products such as cut flowers. Zambia is the largest destination of exports from Eastern Africa accounting for 82.% of total volumes in 214. Rabobank East Africa Exports to Rabobank Southern Africa 214: USD 959,119,7. Rabobank Southern Africa Rabobank East Africa Rabobank Southern Africa Exports to Rabobank East Africa 214: USD 2,176,596,1. Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, Ministry of Commerce and Trade India, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa 38

43 Foreign Exchange: Subdued Commodity Prices to keep Currencies Weak It has been a challenging year for Sub-Saharan African currencies given the slump in commodity prices and the pricing in of an anticipated rate hike by the USA Federal Reserve that has led to an outflow of the greenback from the region. Governments such as that of Nigeria have been aggressive in placing import controls in a bid to prop beleaguered currencies while majority have adopted monetary tightening. Commodity prices are projected to remain depressed through 217 and we anticipate currencies will, by and large, exhibit weakness in the same period. Copper & Gold Price Forecast Crude Oil & Coffee Arabica Price Forecast 1,45. 7,3. 1, ,8. 6,3. 1,35. 1, ,8. 5,3. 1,25. 1,2. 1, , (f) 217 (f) 1, (f) 217 (f) 3 Copper ($/Mt) Gold - RHS ($/toz) Crude Oil ($/bbl) Coffee Arabica - RHS ($/kg Sources: World Bank 215, StratLink Africa 39

44 Currency Performance against USD Currency Change (Year-to-Date) Change (Year-on-Year) Ethiopia Birr -.8% -5.1% Rwanda Franc -.2% -8.2% Kenya Shilling -.5% -11.2% Uganda Shilling -1.3% -19.4% Tanzania Shilling -.3% -24.5% South Africa Rand -2.3% -35.2% Angola Kwanza -3.8% -53.2% Mozambique Metica -2.5% -57.6% Zambia Kwacha -3.3% -7.3% Note: Depreciation reported as at February 11th, 216 Sources: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 4

45 V Contact details Rabobank Trade & Commodity Finance Office Address Delta Corner Tower 17th Floor Waiyaki Way P. O. Box , Nairobi, Kenya Rabobank International Kenya Representative Office Jan de Laat Manager Director TCF Rabobank Africa Middle East India Telephone: Mobile: Jan.de.laat@rabobank.com Web: 41