North America Grains Outlook

Transcription

1 banchero costa North America Grains Outlook (covering wheat and coarse grains) September 2018 bancosta blue studies volume DRY 2018/#12 banchero costa research ; research@bancosta.com Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 1

2 Index 1. Wheat page 3 2. Coarse Grains page Final Words page 37 Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 2

3 Wheat (consumption, production and trade) Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 3

4 North America is expected to account for 7 percent of global wheat consumption in 2018/19, the largest consuming region being South Asia with 19 percent. North America s wheat consumption is forecast to increase 4.6 percent yearon-year to 48.5 million tonnes in 2018/19, driven mainly by increased demand in the U.S.. The U.S. and Canada are expected to account for 65 percent and 19 percent of the region s consumption respectively. North America is expected to be the fifth largest wheat producing region, accounting for 12 percent of global production in 2018/19. Wheat production in North America is forecast to increase 6.8 percent in 2018/19 to 86.4 million tonnes, mainly due to a 7.8 percent increase in U.S. production to 51.1 million tonnes, and 8.3 percent increase in Canadian production to 32.5 million tonnes. The U.S. and Canada are expected to be the second and third largest wheat exporter globally in 2018/19, accounting for 16 percent and 13 percent of exports respectively. U.S. wheat exports are expected to rise 25.7 percent year-on-year to 29 million tonnes, while Canadian wheat exports are forecast to grow 11.4 percent to 24.5 million tonnes. In the first 33 weeks of 2018, the Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines were the top U.S. wheat export destinations, accounting for 14 percent, 13 percent, and 13 percent respectively of U.S. wheat exports. U.S. wheat exports in the first 33 weeks of 2018 have generally fallen year-on-year across the top export destinations, with only Iraq seeing a sharp pick up of close to 0.6 million tonnes as drought conditions reduce their domestic supply. China saw the largest volume decrease of 1.0 million tonnes, likely due to the U.S.-China trade conflict which has resulted in a 25 percent tariff imposed on U.S. wheat. Mexico, the top importer of U.S. wheat, also saw U.S. wheat imports decline by around 0.8 million tonnes, as they turned to cheaper supplies from Russia during their trade spat with the U.S.. In the first half of 2018, the U.S. and Japan were the top Canadian wheat export destinations, accounting for 15 percent and 9 percent respectively of the country s wheat exports. The U.S. and China saw the largest volume gain in Canadian wheat imports for the first half of 2018, while Vietnam saw the largest volume decrease of around 0.65 million tonnes, possibly due to a pick up in Black Sea wheat exports to the country. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 4

5 Global Wheat Consumption /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Sub-Saharan Africa 5% N. Africa 6% S. America 4% SE Asia 4% Oceania 1% Others 1% S. Asia 19% N. America 7% E. Asia 18% Middle East 8% F.S.U. 10% E.U % In 2018/19, world wheat consumption is forecast to reach million tonnes, remaining almost flat from 2017/18. South Asia, East Asia, and the E.U. are the largest global consumers, forecast to account for 19 percent, 18 percent, and 17 percent respectively. North America is forecast to account for 7 percent of global wheat consumption. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 5

6 N. America Wheat Consumption by Country /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Others 16% U.S. 65% Canada 19% In 2018/19, the U.S. is forecast to account for 65 percent of total wheat consumption in North America, followed by Canada which is expected to account for an additional 19 percent. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 6

7 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Wheat Consumption - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Canada Others In 2018/19, North America s wheat consumption is expected to increase 4.6 percent year-on-year to 48.5 million tonnes, driven mainly by increased demand in the U.S.. U.S. consumption is forecast to increase 6.9 percent to 31.4 million tonnes, while Canadian consumption is expected to increase 1.1 percent to 9.4 million tonnes. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 7

8 Global Wheat Production /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Middle East 5% S. America 4% Oceania 3% N. Africa 3% Others 2% E.U % N. America 12% S. Asia 18% F.S.U. 17% E. Asia 17% In 2018/19, world wheat production is forecast at million tonnes, down 3.7 percent year-on-year, mainly due to lower production in the Former Soviet Union and E.U.. North America is expected to remain the fifth largest wheat producing region accounting for 12 percent of global production. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 8

9 N. America Wheat Production by Country /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Others 3% Canada 38% U.S. 59% In 2018/19, the U.S. is forecast to account for 59 percent of total wheat production in North America, followed by Canada which is expected to account for an additional 38 percent. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 9

10 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Wheat Production - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Canada Others Wheat production in North America is forecast to increase 6.8 percent in 2018/19 to 86.4 million tonnes, mainly due to a 7.8 percent increase in U.S. production to 51.1 million tonnes, and 8.3 percent increase in Canadian production to 32.5 million tonnes. In 2017/18, drought conditions had affected yields in the U.S. and Canada, resulting in U.S. output falling to its lowest in a decade. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 10

11 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Wheat Trade - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / /19 (f) Exports * Imports * Includes only available data on U.S., Canada and Mexico North America is a net wheat exporter. Wheat exports from North America are forecast to increase by 18.3 percent to 54.5 million tonnes in 2018/19, while imports are forecast to fall by 3.5 percent to 9.8 million tonnes. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 11

12 Global Wheat Exporting Countries /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Argentina 7% Kazakhstan 5% Turkey 3% Others 7% Russia 19% Australia 9% U.S. 16% Ukraine 9% E.U. 12% Canada 13% The U.S. and Canada are expected to be the second and third largest wheat exporter globally in 2018/19, accounting for 16 percent and 13 percent of exports respectively. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 12

13 million tonnes banchero costa Wheat Exporting Countries in N. America - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Canada Mexico * Includes only available data on U.S., Canada and Mexico In 2018/19, U.S. wheat exports are expected to rise 25.7 percent year-on-year to 29 million tonnes, while Canadian wheat exports are forecast to grow 11.4 percent to 24.5 million tonnes. North American supplies are expected to become more popular in 2018/19 as wheat production in Russia and the E.U. decline, and extreme drought in Australia threaten its exportable supplies. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 13

14 U.S. Wheat Exports by Destinations in 2018 (week 1-33) (Source: USDA ; 2018 data from week 1-33 ; in percentage of total volume) Others 25% Japan 14% Mexico 13% Guatemala 3% Colombia 3% China 3% Thailand 3% Indonesia 4% Nigeria 4% Iraq 4% Taiwan 4% S. Korea 7% Philippines 13% In the first 33 weeks of 2018, the Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines were the top U.S. wheat export destinations, accounting for 14 percent, 13 percent, and 13 percent respectively of U.S. wheat exports. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 14

15 million tonnes banchero costa U.S. Wheat Exports for Top Export Destinations (Source: USDA ; data for week 1-33 for each year ; in million tonnes) Japan Mexico Philippines S. Korea Taiwan Iraq Nigeria 2016 (week 1-33) 2017 (week 1-33) 2018 (week 1-33) In spite of an expected 25.7 percent increase in U.S. wheat exports in 2018/19, U.S. wheat exports in the first 33 weeks of 2018 have generally fallen year-on-year across the top export destinations. Only Iraq has seen a sharp pick up in U.S. wheat imports as drought conditions reduce their domestic supply. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 15

16 YoY change (in million tonnes) banchero costa US Wheat - Top 5 Growth and Loss Export Destinations (Source: USDA ; data for week 1-33 for 2017 & 2018 ; in terms of year-on-year volume change) Iraq Spain Vietnam UAE Honduras Peru Algeria Nigeria Mexico China Iraq saw the largest volume gain in US wheat imports for the first 33 weeks of 2018, compared with the same period in China saw the largest volume decrease of 1.0 million tonnes, likely due to the U.S.-China trade conflict which has resulted in a 25 percent tariff imposed on U.S. wheat. Mexico, the top importer of U.S. wheat, also saw imports decline by around 0.8 million tonnes, as they turned to cheaper supplies from Russia during their trade spat with the U.S.. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 16

17 Canada Wheat Exports by Destinations in Jan-Jun 2018 (Source: Statistics Canada ; in percentage of total volume) Others 24% U.S. 15% Japan 9% Nigeria Sri Lanka 4% 3% Morocco 4% Bangladesh 4% Mexico 5% China 6% Algeria 6% Peru 6% Colombia 6% Indonesia 8% In the first half of 2018, the U.S. and Japan were the top Canadian wheat export destinations, accounting for 15 percent and 9 percent respectively of wheat exports. Indonesia came in third place, accounting for another 8 percent. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 17

18 million tonnes banchero costa Canada Wheat Exports for Top Export Destinations (Source: Statistics Canada ; in million tonnes) U.S. Japan Indonesia Colombia Peru Algeria China (month 1-6) 2017 (month 1-6) 2018 (month 1-6) In the first half of 2018, Canada s intra-regional wheat exports to top destination U.S. picked up compared to the same period in Shipments to China also increased sharply, likely as Chinese buyers sourced for alternative supplies amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S.. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 18

19 YoY change (in million tonnes) banchero costa Canada Wheat - Top 5 Growth and Loss Export Destinations (Source: Statistics Canada ; data for Jan-Jun 2017 & 2018 ; in terms of year-on-year volume change) The U.S. and China saw the largest volume gain in Canadian wheat imports for the first half of 2018, compared with the same period in Vietnam saw the largest volume decrease of around 0.65 million tonnes, due to a pick up in Black Sea wheat exports to the country. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 19

20 Coarse Grains (consumption, production and trade) Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 20

21 North America is expected to account for a majority 30 percent of global coarse grain consumption in 2018/19. North America s coarse grain consumption is expected to increase 1.8 percent year-on-year to million tonnes, mainly due to growing U.S. and Mexican consumption. U.S. consumption is forecast to increase 1.5 percent to million tonnes, while Mexican consumption is expected to increase 5.2 percent to 50.8 million tonnes. The U.S. is forecast to account for 82 percent of total coarse grain consumption in North America, followed by Mexico and Canada which are expected to account for another 12 percent and 6 percent respectively. Coarse grain consumption in North America is dominated by corn, which is expected to account for approximately 93 percent in 2018/19. In 2018/19, North America is expected to account for a majority 33 percent of global coarse grain production. Coarse grain production in North America is forecast to increase a slight 0.3 percent in 2018/19 to million tonnes, mainly as a 5.0 percent increase in Canadian production to 27.5 million tonnes is offset by a 1.9 percent decrease in Mexican production to 31.9 million tonnes. Production in the U.S., which accounts for 87 percent of North American coarse grain production, is expected to remain relatively flat. Corn is expected to account for a vast 93 percent of North American coarse grain production. In 2018/19, the U.S. is expected to be the largest global coarse grain exporter, accounting for 33 percent of exports. Canada is expected to account for 3 percent of global coarse grain exports. U.S. coarse grain exports are expected to decrease 5.5 percent to 63.6 million tonnes, largely as corn exports suffer from retaliatory tariffs in the E.U. and China while facing strong competition from suppliers in the Black Sea and South America. Corn accounts for approximately 88 percent of North American coarse grain exports. In the first 33 weeks of 2018, Mexico and Japan were the top U.S. coarse grain export destinations, accounting for 21 percent and 19 percent respectively of U.S. exports. U.S. coarse grain exports to the E.U. have been seeing a marked increase in the first 33 weeks of this year, due to tight supplies from bad weather and as E.U. buyers rushed to import U.S. corn before retaliatory tariffs were imposed. Vietnam also saw a large import volume gain of 1.8 million tonnes over this period, as they face both a smaller domestic crop and continued growth in feed demand. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 21

22 Global Coarse Grain Consumption /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) South Asia 5% FSU 4% Middle East 4% SE Asia N. Africa 3% 2% Others 2% N. America 30% S. America 8% Sub-Saharan Africa 8% EU 12% East Asia 22% In 2018/19, world coarse grain consumption is forecast at 1.4 billion tonnes, up 1.6 percent year-on-year, mainly due to increased consumption from East Asia, North America, and South America. North America is expected to account for a majority 30 percent of global consumption. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 22

23 N. America Coarse Grain Consumption by Country /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Mexico 12% Canada 6% U.S. 82% In 2018/19, the U.S. is forecast to account for 82 percent of total coarse grain consumption in North America, followed by Mexico and Canada which are expected to account for another 12 percent and 6 percent respectively. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 23

24 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Coarse Grain Consumption - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Mexico Canada In 2018/19, North America s coarse grain consumption is expected to increase 1.8 percent year-on-year to million tonnes, mainly due to growing U.S. and Mexican consumption. U.S. consumption is forecast to increase 1.5 percent to million tonnes, while Mexican consumption is expected to increase 5.2 percent to 50.8 million tonnes. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 24

25 N. America Coarse Grain Consumption by Grain /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Barley 3% Sorghum 3% Oats 1% Rye 0% Corn 93% Coarse grain consumption in North America is dominated by corn, which is expected to account for approximately 93 percent in 2018/19. Barley and sorghum account for an additional 3 percent each. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 25

26 Global Coarse Grain Production /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) FSU 7% South Asia 4% SE Asia Middle East N. Africa Others 3% 1% 1% 2% N. America 33% Sub Sah Africa 8% EU 11% S. America 12% East Asia 18% In 2018/19, world coarse grain production is forecast at 1.34 billion tonnes, up 2.1 percent year-on-year, mainly due to higher production in South America and East Asia. North America is expected to account for 33 percent of global coarse grain production. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 26

27 N. America Coarse Grain Production by Country /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Mexico 7% Canada 6% U.S. 87% In 2018/19, the U.S. is forecast to account for 87 percent of total coarse grain production in North America, followed by Mexico and Canada which are expected to account for an additional 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 27

28 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Coarse Grain Production - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Mexico Canada Coarse grain production in North America is forecast to increase a slight 0.3 percent in 2018/19 to million tonnes, mainly as a 5.0 percent increase in Canadian production to 27.5 million tonnes is offset by a 1.9 percent decrease in Mexican production to 31.9 million tonnes. Production in the U.S. is expected to remain relatively flat. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 28

29 N. America Coarse Grain Production by Grain /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Barley 3% Sorghum 3% Oats 1% Rye 0% Corn 93% In 2018/19, corn is expected to account for a vast 93 percent of North American coarse grain consumption. Barley, sorghum and oats are expected to account for a further 3 percent, 3 percent and 1 percent respectively. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 29

30 million tonnes banchero costa N. America Coarse Grain Trade - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) Exports * Imports * Includes only available data on U.S. and Canada North America is a net coarse grain exporter. Coarse grain exports from North America are forecast to decrease by 5.3 percent to 69.1 million tonnes in 2018/19, while imports are forecast to rise by 6.1 percent to 22.4 million tonnes. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 30

31 Global Coarse Grain Exporting Countries /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Australia 4% EU 4% Canada 3% Others 8% U.S. 33% Russia 4% Brazil 14% Ukraine 15% Argentina 15% In 2018/19, the U.S. is expected to be the largest global coarse grain exporter, accounting for 33 percent of exports, followed by Argentina and Ukraine with 15 percent each. Canada is expected to account for 3 percent of global coarse grain exports. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 31

32 million tonnes banchero costa Coarse Grain Exporting Countries in N. America - Annual (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in million tonnes) / / / / / / / / / /19 (f) U.S. Canada In 2018/19, U.S. coarse grain exports are expected to decrease 5.5 percent to 63.6 million tonnes, largely as corn exports face strong competition from suppliers in the Black Sea and South America. Canadian coarse grain exports are also expected to fall 2.9 percent to 5.4 million tonnes. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 32

33 N. America Coarse Grain Exports by Grain /19 (f) (Source: USDA Grain Report Aug 2018 ; in percentage of total volume) Sorghum 7% Barley 3% Oats 2% Corn 88% Corn is expected to account for approximately 88 percent of North American coarse grain exports. Sorghum, oats and barley are forecast to account for another 7 percent, 3 percent and 2 percent respectively. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 33

34 U.S. Coarse Grain Exports By Destinations in 2018 (week 1-33) (Source: USDA ; 2018 data from week 1-33; in percentage of total volume) Spain Saudi Arabia 3% 3% Vietnam 4% Egypt 3% Others 11% Mexico 21% Taiwan 4% Peru 4% E.U. 4% China 6% Colombia 7% S. Korea 11% Japan 19% In the first 33 weeks of 2018, Mexico and Japan were the top U.S. coarse grain export destinations, accounting for 21 percent and 19 percent respectively of U.S. exports. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 34

35 million tonnes banchero costa U.S. Coarse Grain Exports for Top Export Destinations (Source: USDA ; data for week 1-33 for each year ; in million tonnes) Mexico Japan S. Korea Colombia China E.U. Peru 2016 (week 1-33) 2017 (week 1-33) 2018 (week 1-33) U.S. coarse grain exports to S. Korea and the E.U. have been seeing a marked increase in the first 33 weeks of this year. Tight supplies in the E.U. due to bad weather have resulted in increasing reliance on corn imports as feedstock. E.U. buyers had also rushed to import U.S. corn before retaliatory tariffs were imposed in June. With the E.U. tariffs now in place, E.U. buyers have been reported to be increasing corn imports from Canada. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 35

36 YoY change (in million tonnes) banchero costa US Coarse Grain - Top 5 Growth and Loss Export Destinations (Source: USDA ; data for week 1-33 for 2017 & 2018 ; in terms of year-on-year volume change) Vietnam S. Korea E.U. Spain Egypt Nigeria China S. Africa Chile Malaysia Vietnam and S. Korea saw the largest import volume gain in US coarse grain imports of 1.8 million tonnes and 1.4 million tonnes respectively for the first 33 weeks of 2018, compared with the same period in Vietnam has been facing both a smaller domestic crop and continued growth in feed demand for their swine and poultry industries, resulting in strong coarse grain imports. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 36

37 Final Words (summary & conclusions) Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 37

38 The U.S. and Canada are expected to be the second and third largest wheat exporter globally in 2018/19, accounting for 16 percent and 13 percent of exports respectively. For coarse grains, the U.S. is expected to be the largest global coarse grain exporter accounting for 33 percent of global exports, while Canada accounts for 3 percent. U.S. wheat exports to China & Mexico fall due to trade disputes; Canada & Russia among alternative suppliers While the USDA has forecasted U.S. wheat exports to rise 25.7 percent year-on-year to 29 million tonnes, shipments in the first 33 weeks of 2018 have generally fallen year-on-year across the top export destinations, with only Iraq seeing a sharp pick up of close to 0.6 million tonnes as drought conditions reduce their domestic supply. China saw the largest volume decrease of 1.0 million tonnes, likely due to the U.S.-China trade conflict which has resulted in a 25 percent tariff imposed on U.S. wheat. Mexico, the top importer of U.S. wheat, also saw U.S. wheat imports decline by around 0.8 million tonnes, as they turned to cheaper supplies from Russia during their trade spat with the U.S.. In the first half of 2018, the U.S. and Japan were the top Canadian wheat export destinations, accounting for 15 percent and 9 percent respectively of the country s wheat exports. Shipments to China increased sharply in the first half of 2018 as Chinese buyers sourced for alternative supplies amid the trade war with the U.S., while Vietnam saw the largest volume decrease of around 0.65 million tonnes, due to a pick up in Black Sea wheat exports to the country. U.S. coarse grain exports to E.U. distorted by retaliatory tariffs, Canada now moving in to close gap U.S. coarse grain exports are expected to decrease 5.5 percent to 63.6 million tonnes, largely as corn exports suffer from retaliatory tariffs in the E.U. and China, while at the same time facing strong competition from suppliers in the Black Sea and South America. U.S. coarse grain exports to the E.U. have been seeing a marked increase in the first 33 weeks of this year, due to tight supplies from bad weather and as E.U. buyers rushed to import U.S. corn before retaliatory tariffs were imposed in June. With the E.U. tariffs now in place, E.U. buyers have been reported to be increasing corn imports from Canada. Sep 2018 North America Grains Outlook 38

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