THE METEORIC RISE OF ENERGY DRINKS

Transcription

1

2 THE METEORIC RISE OF ENERGY DRINKS $7.1B $174M (e) Source: Red Bull Internal Data, IRI, Mintel Article: FT.COM March

3 ENERGY DRINKS Mintel revised its 5 year forecast of Energy drinks from 64% to 86% growth $14,000 TTL US ENERGY DRINKS $ SALES AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS $11.9 B 40% $12,000 34% 35% 30% $ SALES, MILLIONS $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 10% 8% $7.1 B 14% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 25% 20% 15% 10% $ GROWTH % 5% $2,000-1% 0% $ (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) $ Volume % Growth vs YA -5% SOURCE: MINTEL ENERGY DRINKS AND SHOTS REPORT JUNE 2012

4 BEVERAGE GROWTH PROJECTIONS Energy Drinks are well to outpace all other categories through 2016! CATEGORY GROWTH NEXT 5 YEARS TOTAL US 86% 49% 32% 18% 17% 14% 6% ENERGY DRINKS RTD COFFEE ISOTONICS* WATER TEA JUICE CSD Source: Mintel Beverage Category Growth Projec@ons are for TTL US (*Isotonics forecasts only available for FDMx and through 2015)

5 ENERGY DRINKS GROWTH WILL ACCOUNT FOR 50% OF ALL NON-ALC PACKAGED BEVERAGE GROWTH IN NEXT 5 YEARS $ Shr Pt Chg Energy Drinks $7,080 b 2 Isotonics $3,477 b Coffee $8,504 b Tea $4,375 b 0-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Bottled Water $6,752 b -2 Juice $15,933 b % Chg (f) -4 CSD $43,118 b -6 Source: Category size: 2011 Mintel CSD, Juice, Coffee All Outlet; Energy Drinks, Tea, Isotonics, Water FDMxC. Forecasts based on latest mintel projections at highest

6 US BEVERAGE CATEGORY FORECASTS Energy is the only beverage categories forecasted to hit double digit growth each year through 2016, while CSD remains flat MINTEL $ FORECAST, TOTAL US % 14% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 1% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% -2% (f) 2013 (f) 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f) CSD JUICE BOTTLED WATER COFFEE RTD TEA ISOTONICS* ENERGY DRINKS ONLY SOURCE: Mintel Beverage Category Growth Projections are for TTL US *Isotonics forecasted for FDMx through 2015

7 BEVERAGE GROWTH RATES ENERGY HAS LED TOTAL BEVERAGE GROWTH OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS TOTAL US CATEGORY $ GROWTH RATES CSD JUICE BOTTLED WATER COFFEE RTD TEA ISOTONICS* ENERGY DRINKS ONLY 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 34% 14% 14% 8% 10% -1% (f) SOURCE: Mintel Beverage Category Growth Projections are for TTL US *Isotonics forecasted for FDMx

8 BEVERAGE GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND IS FORECAST TO GROW DOUBLE DIGIT FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS TOTAL US CATEGORY $ GROWTH FORECASTS CSD JUICE BOTTLED WATER COFFEE RTD TEA ISOTONICS* ENERGY DRINKS ONLY 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2012 (f) 2013 (f) 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f) SOURCE: Mintel Beverage Category Growth Projections are for TTL US *Isotonics forecasted for FDMx and are through 2015

9 INDUSTRY EXPERTS AGREE ON ENERGY GROWTH FORECASTS ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS Euromonitor Mintel Canadean 12% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 10% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% All major forecast Think Tanks predict consistent high growth for Energy Drinks % 2% % AVERAGE 5 YEAR GROWTH FORECAST 41% 27% 24% 18% 11% and all are consistent in predicting Energy as the fastest growing beverage segment over this time period. 0% Energy CSD Water Isotonics RTD Tea RTD Coffee RTD Juice SOURCE: MINTEL, CANADEAN, EUROMONITOR FORECAST REPORTS

10 THE 5 THINGS THAT WILL DRIVE THIS GROWTH OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS 1 BASELINE GROWTH FROM CORE BRANDS THROUGH IMAGE BASED MARKETING Top three are 87% of category 2 CONSUMER INSATIABLE NEED FOR AN ENERGY BOOST Energy as a state of mind 3 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IMPROVEMENT Increase in disposable income $ 4 GROWTH OF CORE DEMOGRAPHIC TARGET, ESPECIALLY HISPANIC SHOPPERS 16% Hispanic population growth 5 CATEGORY INNOVATION 108 new products (2011) SOURCE: MINTEL ENERGY DRINKS AND SHOTS REPORT JUNE 2012

11 DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO GROWTH UNEMPLOYMENT POPULATION GROWTH Key Energy Drink Consumers- teens, Hispanics, and African Americans- exhibit higher than average unemployment. Asians and Hispanics offer growth potential for energy drinks manufacturers. The Hispanic population is projected to grow by nearly 16% during TEENS The teen consumer base shrunk from 27% of energy drink consumer base in 2007 to 16% or energy drink consumer base in ADULTS AGE Energy drinks usage incidence among adults in this age group remained unchanged during ADULTS AGE Contributed the largest share to consumer growth in the category SOURCE: MINTEL ENERGY DRINKS AND SHOTS REPORT JUNE 2012

12 TOP 5 REASONS FOR DRINKING ENERGY DRINKS For an energy boost To stay awake For mental alertness For taste For refreshment 68% 53% 44% 40% 34% SOURCE: MINTEL ENERGY DRINKS AND SHOTS REPORT JUNE AS A PERCENTAGE OF USERS

13 PURCHASE MOTIVATIONS FOR OTHER CATEGORIES ARE DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ENERGY DRINKS COFFEE 66% 80% 56% 48% 55% 48% GIVE ME AN ENERGY BOOST RESTORE MY ENERGY WAKE ME UP CSD WAKE ME UP I LIKE THE TASTE EASILY AVAILABLE TO ME 86% 72% 70% 70% I LIKE THE TASTE TO HAVE SOMETHING COLD QUENCH MY THIRST GOES WITH MY FOOD Source: Cheskin A&U, total Pick Me Ups, 2010

14 Consumer: Decision Influencers Variety of beverages is important to two thirds of restaurant- goers, despite the tendency to order the same beverage. Clearly consumers want the of choice. Decision influencers It is important to me that restaurants offer free refills It is important to me that restaurants include a beverage in combo meals It is important to me that restaurants offer a wide variety of beverages It is important to me that a restaurant offers specific beverage brands Level of agreement Source: MINTEL

15 ENERGY DRINK USAGE AND FREQUENCY % 4.52 Men are more likely than women to drink Energy Drinks % 4.46 Adults age are twice as likely as average to drink Energy Drinks % 4.62 Adults with children are more likely to drink Energy Drinks % 3.81 % of Adults who drink Energy Drinks SOURCE: MINTEL ENERGY DRINKS AND SHOTS REPORT JUNE 2012 How many glasses of energy drinks did you have in the past 30 days?

16 THE FACE OF IMMEDIATE CONSUMPTION BEVERAGE HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW YEARS AT RETAIL SINGLE SERVE BEVERAGE RANKING IN $ FDMC 1 RED BULL $1,983,635,262 2 GATORADE $1,943,517,518 3 COCA COLA $1,899,405,493 4 MOUNTAIN DEW $1,747,610,722 5 MONSTER $1,694,984,263 6 PEPSI $1,299,158,429 7 DR PEPPER $918,916,663 8 POWERADE $781,120,352 9 ARIZONA $748,896, STARBUCKS COFFEE $650,948,611 Source: Nielsen L52W FDMxC. Single serve = >1L

17 UNIQUE FEATURES OF THE ENERGY CATEGORY The Category is BRAND driven, not Flavor Driven. 77% 16% 4% 4% ORIGINAL/SF FLAVORS ZERO ADDL FUNCTION Purchased throughout the day After Lunch In the Morning In the Evening With Lunch At Night When Socializing 20% 24% 31% 31% 47% 60% Nielsen G&C Data, through 1 st Oct 2011, Mintel Aug 2011

18 THE ENERGY DRINK CONSUMER IS THE QSR CONSUMER % OF CONSUMERS WHO SHOP IN QSR % OF CONSUMERS WHO BUY ENERGY DRINKS GEN POPULATION 85% 17% ENERGY DRINKERS 92% -- QSR SHOPPERS -- 30% INDEX Source: 2012 Simmons Market Survey, 2010 Census.gov BUT FEW QSRS STOCK

19 NO ENERGY DRINKS MEANS THAT 1 IN 3 QSR SHOPPERS HAS TO GO TO A COMPETING ENVIRONMENT TO PURCHASE THEM

20 ENERGY DRINKS ARE INCREMENTAL PURCHASES PURCHASE INTENT INCREMENTALITY REWARD 81% RISK 70% Source: 2012 CINT Panel Study

21 ENERGY DRINKS REPRESENT A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR QSR! 52,960,000 Energy Drinkers in the US Drinking 91 Cans per year each 92% already go to QSR with 81% purchase intent for Energy Drinks Visit/PP/Mo Source: 2011 Mintel QSR Report, 2012 CINT Panel Study If just 10% of their visits contain an energy 70% incrementality $1B OPPORTUNITY

22 ?