U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2018

Transcription

1 U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2018 Suzanne Thornsbury and Jennifer Bond U.S. Dry Bean Convention U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2013 Dr. Suzanne Bonita Thornsbury Springs, FL and Hodan Farah Wells July 24, 2018 U.S. Dry Bean Convention The Findings and Conclusions in Chicago, This Preliminary IL Presentation Have Not Been Formally Disseminated by July the 30, U.S Department of Agriculture and Should Not Be Construed to Represent Any Agency Determination or Policy.

2 Projected 2018 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance Production million cwt Area planted 1.83 million acres Area harvested 1.78 million acres Yield cwt/acre Smaller crop than the 2017 record: Area planted and harvested both down 2018 ERS-projected yields slightly higher due to return to trend and improvement in drought conditions Forecast production down 15 percent; just above average since

3 U.S. All Dry Bean Planted Area Source: USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service 3

4 U.S. Dry Beans: Acres Harvested Million acres Dry Bean Wheat Corn Million acres f: Dry Bean acres decrease ~12% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 4

5 Bags (cwt)/acre U.S. Dry Bean Average Yield f 2018f: increase less than 1% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 5

6 Crop Condition* State Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent CO ID MI MN MT ND OR WA WY *Share of Crop, mid-july, reported by USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. 6

7 U.S. Dry Bean Acres and Dry Bean/Corn Price Ratio Million acres Price Ratio Dry bean acres planted Dry bean/corn price ratio (t-1) p 19f Data Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted). 7

8 U.S. Dry Bean Production Million cwt f Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 8

9 S&U: Dry Beans (supply) Year Production Imports Beginning Stocks Total Supply --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs s s s f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 9

10 S&U: Dry Beans (utilization) Year Exports Seed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs-- --Million lbs s s s f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 10

11 World Dry Bean: Production, Avg Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Mexico China, mainland United Republic of Tanzania United States of America Brazil India Myanmar Million lbs Excludes chickpeas, cowpeas, and broad beans. Data Source: United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAOSTAT. 11

12 Dry Bean Trade 12

13 U.S. All Dry Bean Trade Share Share of use imported Share of supply exported s 1980s 1990s 2000s f 1/ Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 13

14 U.S. Dry Beans Trade 1/ Million pounds Exports Imports / Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 14

15 U.S. Dry Bean Top 10 Export Destinations, 2016/17 These 10 countries account for about 70% of all US dry bean exports in 2016/17. Canada Mexico Italy United Kingdom Spain Dominican Republic Pakistan Brazil Costa Rica Turkey Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 15

16 U.S. Exports to World Regions, / Calendar year basis. Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 16

17 Share of U.S. Dry Bean Imports Share Canada Mexico China Nicaragua Other Source: Prepared by ERS using data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 17

18 Dry Beans by Class 18

19 Dry Bean Production, by Class Pinto Navy (pea) Great Northern Black All Kidney Garbanzo Other Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990s 2000s f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service values are forecast. 19

20 Projected Dry Bean Production, by Class 2018f 2% 5% 11% 3% Navy Great Northern 30% 14% 6% Black Red kidney Garbanzo Pinto Small Red Others 29% Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service values are forecast. 20

21 U.S. Pinto Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ Million cwt $/cwt 16 Production Dealer price f production decrease over 30%; Dealer price up 11% f / Dealer Price is from Northeast Colorado. Data Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production); USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (prices) values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 21

22 U.S. Pinto Beans: Trade 1/ 17/18 MY exports are running about 6% ahead of the 2016/17 pace through May. Million lbs Exports Imports 1/ 2017/18 Data are projected based on total sales through May of Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 22

23 U.S. Pinto Bean Export Shares Share Dominican Republic Mexico Haiti Mozambique Other Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 23

24 U.S. Navy Beans: Production and Dealer Price 1/ 2018: production decrease 20%; dealer price projected up ~4% Million cwt. 9 Production Dealer price $/cwt f 0 1/ Dealer Price from Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices) values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 24

25 Million lbs U.S. Navy Beans: Trade 1/ Exports Imports 2017/18 exports are projected down ~7% from 16/17; slight rebound expected in 18/19 1/ 2017/18 Data are projected based on total sales through May of Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 25

26 Share Navy Bean Export Shares Other Mexico South Africa Canada United Kingdom Italy Sales to the EU ~70% of U.S. exports sales in MY 17/18 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 26

27 U.S. Black Beans: Domestic Utilization and Per Capita Availability Million lbs p 0.91 lbs/ capita Lbs. per person lbs/ capita lbs/ capita lbs/ capita f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 27

28 U.S. Black Beans: Value of Production $ million Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 28

29 Black Bean Export Shares Share 1.0 Mexico Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica Brazil Other / / / / / /18* Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 2017/18 is based on partial year (Sept-May). 29

30 U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Production and Yield Million cwt Production Yield Poly. (Production) cwt/acre p 18f 0.00 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 30

31 U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Utilization and Per Capita Availability Million lbs. Exports Other Use Per capita Lbs/person p 18f Source: USDA, Economic Research Service values are forecast and noted with an f ; 2017 values are preliminary. 31

32 U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Key Export Destinations Share 1.00 Spain Pakistan Turkey India Italy Algeria UAE Other / / / / / /18* Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. * 2017/18 Trade data available through May

33 Grower Prices 33

34 Average Grower Price, All Beans and Garbanzo $/cwt All beans Garbanzo p 2018f Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 34

35 U.S. Dry Beans, All: Monthly Grower Prices $/cwt $ /11 Monthly Grower All Bean Price ($/CWT) $ /12 $ /13 $ /14 $ /15 $ /16 $ / /18 All Dry Bean price projected at $27.8/cwt; 2018/19f price is at $28.60/cwt Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2018/19 forecast by ERS. 35

36 Grower Prices: Producer Bid Level Variety (Location) p 2018 forecast Navy (MI) Pinto (ND/MN) Black (MI) Light red kidney (MN/WI) Dark red kidney (MN/WI) Garbanzo Great Northern (NE/WY) Small Red (WA/ID) Pink (WA/ID) Bid Level: Producer Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service. 36

37 Summary 2017 crop: All dry bean production in 2017 up 25% over 2016 Significant gains for pintos, blacks, garbanzos Total supplies up 613 million pounds, offsets gains in use Ending stocks up 7% year-to-year 2018 crop: Area planted to dry beans reported sharply down from 2017 Production down 560 million pounds; total supplies down ~7% Ending stocks reduced nearly 200 million lbs Increasing tightness in the balance sheet and rising commodity (wheat, corn) prices support higher prices 2017/18f and 2018/19f prices: 2017/18f all dry bean price ($27.25/cwt) down from 2016/17 ($29.20/cwt) on higher production 2018/19f all dry bean price ($28.60/cwt) 37

38 Thank you Please contact Jennifer Bond for more information