Spatial shifts in global egg trade between 1993 and 2013

Transcription

1 International Egg Commission Spatial shifts in global egg trade between 1993 and 213 Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst IEC Statistical Analyst

2 Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst The author is the IEC Statistical Analyst in addition he is Prof. emeritus and Scientific Director of the Science and Information Centre Sustainable Poultry Production (WING), University of Vechta, Germany. Previously Professor Windhorst was Director of the Institute for Spatial Analysis and Planning in Areas of Intensive Agriculture at the University of Vechta, Germany until April 29, an institute that he founded in 199. Much of his work involves investigating regional and sectoral patterns in the egg industry. He studied at the University of Muenster and gained a PHD in 1969 and then gained a postdoctoral qualification in Professor Windhorst has had a longstanding involvement with the IEC, and together with Peter van Horne is developing the Economic and Statistical service that the IEC provides to members. Introduction A large number of scientific papers on the development, dynamics and patterns of egg and meat production in the old industrialised countries have been published so far; however, there are hardly any studies which deal with the role of the less developed and newly industrialised countries in global egg trade. In this paper, the spatial shifts which occurred in the trade of eggs between 1993 and 213 will be analysed in detail. In addition, the analyses will also document which countries gained and lost shares in the global export and import volumes during the analysed time period. It will be distinguished between four country development groups (CDG): 1 - LLDC = Least Developed Countries - LDC = Less Developed Countries - NIC = Newly Industrialised Countries or threshold countries - OIC = Old Industrialised Countries. 1 The Development Groups are as follows: The CDG LLDC (least developed countries) is identical with the FAO classification; the CDG NIC (newly industrialised or threshold countries) are: Brazil, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russian Federation, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey; the CDG OIC (old industrialised countries) are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Rep. of Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USA; all other countries belong to the CDG LDC. INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 1

3 Table 1 shows the shares of the four country development groups in world population, egg exports and egg imports in 213. The data reveals that 32.8% of the world s population lived in the least and less developed countries. They contributed 9.6 % to global egg exports but 29.4 % to global egg imports. The imbalance in global egg trade becomes obvious when one considers that only % of the global population lived in the old industrialised countries and that they contributed 62.8 % to the global export and 69.3 % to the global import volume. It is also worth mentioning that the ten newly industrialised countries only shared 1.3 % of world egg imports despite their contribution of 52. % to the global population. Table 1: The contribution of the Development Groups to global population, egg exports and egg imports in 213; data in % (Source: FAO database; own calculations) CDG Countries Population Egg exports Egg imports LLDC LDC NIC OIC Total Dynamics in egg trade between 1993 and 213 After the general overview on the situation of egg trade in 213, the following part of the analysis will deal with the development of egg exports and imports on the basis of the four Development Groups between 1993 and 213. It is necessary to consider that in 213 only 2.9 of the globally produced eggs were traded. In contrast, 13.3 % of the produced chicken meat reached the market. This remarkable difference is, amongst other things, due to the inability to freeze eggs and to transport them by vessel over long distances. The result is that table eggs are mainly traded over short distances and to adjacent countries. Table 2 documents that the global export volume of shell eggs increased from only 782, t in 1993 to almost 2 mill. t in 213 or by %. A closer look at the dynamics reveals that the old and newly industrialised countries contributed almost 9 % to the absolute growth with the old industrialised countries in a dominant position. As expected, the export volume of the least developed countries was negligible. The less developed countries were able to almost triple their exports in the analysed time period. Figure 1 shows that the newly industrialised countries gained 17.6 % of the global export volume while the old industrialised countries lost 19.2 % in the analysed time period. The less developed countries were not able to maintain the increase of 3. % between 1993 and 23. Because of the considerable growth of the export volumes of some threshold countries they lost 1.5 % again until 213. Despite the considerable spatial shifts, the old industrialised countries are still in a dominant position in egg exports. In this context it has to be considered that shell eggs for consumption, especially table eggs, are mainly traded only over short distances because of the inability to freeze them. INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 2

4 Figure 1: The changing contribution of the Development Groups to global egg exports between 1993 and 213 (Source: Own calculations) Table 2: The development of egg exports by the Development Groups between 1993 and 213; data in 1, t (Source: FAO database; own calculation) Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World , ,9 1,976 Increase (%) Increase (1, t) *1,194 Share (%) of absolute increase, *1. Table 3: The development of egg imports by the Development Groups between 1993 and 213; data in 1, t (Source: FAO database; own calculation) Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June , ,927 Increase (%) , Increase (1, t) ,159 Share (%) of absolute increase *1.

5 A closer look at the data in Table 3, which documents the changes in egg imports between 1993 and 213, reveals that the volumes of exports and imports do not match completely. This is a result of the fact that some eggs had already been exported but not yet reached their destination. Figure 2: The changing contribution of the Development Groups to global egg imports between 1993 and 213 (Source: Own calculations) In contrast to exports, the least and less developed countries played a much larger role in egg imports. In 213, they together shared 35.1 % of the global import volume. In the newly industrialised countries, imports also grew considerably but their import volume only reached one fifth of that of the developing countries. This imbalance also highlights the growing importance of eggs as a protein source in the developing countries as the growing production in the newly industrialised countries (see also Windhorst 216). The fact that the old industrialised countries also imported large amounts of eggs is due to the intensive trade within this Development Group; this is true for both table eggs as for egg for further processing. In Figure 2, the spatial shift between the Development Groups in egg imports is documented. With the exception of the old industrialised countries, which lost 11.7 % of their share in 1993, all other groups were able to increase their contribution to the global import volume. Dynamics in egg trade between 1993 and 213 at a country level The next part of the analysis will deal with the spatial shift in egg exports and imports within the Development Groups. This will make it possible to identify the countries which were able to increase their exports and gain market shares and also countries which had to import large amounts of eggs because of a rising domestic demand or a reduction of their production volumes. The Development Groups will be analysed according to their export volumes. The old industrialised countries lost 19.2 % of their contribution to global egg exports between 1993 and 213 despite an increase in the export volume of 6, t. A more detailed analysis of the composition and ranking of the ten leading countries reveals that with the exception of Poland, Germany and Spain all other countries were confronted with losses (Table 4). They were particularly high in the Netherlands which lost about half of its share in 1993, France with a loss of 4.2 % and INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 4

6 Belgium with 2. %. On the other hand, Poland was the big winner with an increase of the export volume of 214, t in the analysed time period, only surpassed by Turkey as will be shown later. Germany and Spain were also able to expand their contribution to global egg exports by 1. % and 2.4 % respectively. Germany has been the leading egg importing country for many years. Its share of global imports decreased, however, between 1993 and 213 by 5. % despite an absolute growth of 184, t (Table 5). This is due to the fact that imports in several other countries also increased considerably. The fact that in 213 nine of the leading egg exporting countries in the group of the old industrialised countries and eight of the leading egg importing countries of this group were located in Europe documents the intensity of the egg trade within this continent. Table 4: The ten leading countries in the group of the old industrialised countries in egg exports in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global export volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Netherlands USA France Belgium/Lux. Germany Finland Israel Czech Rep. Un. Kingdom Hungary Exports (1, t) Share %) in global exports Netherlands Poland USA Germany Belgium Spain France UK Czech Rep. Latvia Exports (1. t) Share (%) In global exports countries 614 * countries 1,161 *58.8 OIC total OIC total 1, Table 5: The ten leading countries in the group of the old industrialised countries in egg imports in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global import volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Germany Poland Netherlands Singapore Belgium/Lux. France Spain Switzerland Canada Italy Imports (1, t) Share %) in global imports Germany Netherlands Italy Singapore Belgium UK France Canada Switzerland Greece Imports (1. t) Share (%) In global imports countries 485 * countries 981 *5.9 OIC total OIC total INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 5

7 In contrast to egg production, the newly industrialised countries are not dominant in egg trade. Their share in the global export volume increased from only 1. % in 1993 to 27.6 % in 213. With the exception of Mexico and the Philippines, all other countries expanded their export volume. Turkey in particular was able to continuously increase its export volume (Table 6). In 213, it already ranked in second place among the leading egg exporting countries behind the Netherlands. This dynamic is a result of the rapid growth of the Turkish poultry industry over the past decade. Malaysia was the main supplier for Singapore s egg imports. Between these two countries trade relations have developed similar to those between Germany and the Netherlands. Table 6: Egg exports of the ten newly industrialised countries in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global export volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Malaysia China Russian Fed. India South Africa Brazil Thailand Turkey Mexico Philippines Exports (1, t) Share %) in global exports ,1,1 <.1 <.1 Turkey Malaysia China India Brazil Thailand Russian Fed. South Africa Mexico Philippines Exports (1. t) Share (%) In global exports <.1 <.1 1 countries * countries NIC total NIC total Due to the high domestic egg production, the newly industrialised countries have been playing only a minor role in egg imports (Table 7). Only Mexico and the Russian Federation are importing considerable amounts of eggs. In Mexico the Avian Influenza outbreaks have caused a reduction in the self-sufficiency rate. In the Russian Federation, the impacts of the political and economic transformation processes since the collapse of the former USSR and of COMECON are still showing their effects. In addition, the Russian poultry industry strongly favours broiler meat production. Table 7: Egg imports of the ten newly industrialised countries in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global import volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Mexico Russian Fed. China Brazil Turkey South Africa Philippines India Malaysia Thailand Imports (1, t) Share %) in global imports <.1 <.1 Mexico Russian Fed. Turkey India Thailand China Brazil South Africa Malaysia India Imports (1. t) Share (%) in global imports <.1 <.1 <.1 <.1 <.1 <.1 1 countries countries NIC total NIC total INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 6

8 Table 8: The five leading countries in the group of the less developed countries in egg exports in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global export volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Saudi Arabia Ukraine Belarus Vietnam Syria Exports (1, t) Share %) in global exports Belarus Saudi Arabia Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Exports (1. t) Share (%) in global exports 5 countries countries 148 *7.5 LDC total LDC total As expected, less developed countries only play a minor role in egg exports because of the high domestic demand, especially in the countries with a fast growing population. The contribution to the global export volume did not change very much between 1993 and 213. Besides Saudi Arabia, only four Eastern European countries exported considerable amounts of eggs (Table 8). In egg imports, the less developed countries rank in second place behind the old industrialised countries. Their import volume grew by 373, t or % (Table 9). In 213 they shared 3.6 % in the global export volume. Hong Kong and Singapore which ranked as number one and two were surpassed by Iraq. Because of the almost complete destruction of the egg industry after the beginning of the Iraq war, the country has become one of the major egg importing countries. With the exception of Angola and Mozambique, all leading countries are located in Asia. This again documents the growing importance of eggs as a protein source for the fast growing population in many Asian countries. Table 9: The ten leading countries in the group of the less developed countries in egg imports in 1993 and 213 and their contribution to the global import volume (Source: FAO Datenbasis) Hong Kong Kuwait UAE Oman Albania Namibia Saudi Arabia Yemen Iraq Libya Production (1, t) Share %) in global imports Iraq Afghanistan Angola Oman Romania Mozambique Israel Syria Mongolia Bahrain Production (1. t) Share (%) In global imports countries 146 *19. 1 countries 4 *2.8 LDC total LDC total INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 7

9 Export and Import dynamics at country level The final chapter of this analysis will document the countries with the highest absolute increase in egg exports and imports. Five of the ten countries with the highest absolute increase in egg exports between 1993 and 213 are located in Europe, four in Asia and one in North America (Table 1). Almost 5 % of the growth in the export volume was concentrated in the three leading countries. The remarkable increase in Turkey and Poland reflects the extraordinary dynamics of the poultry industry in these countries. Table 1: The ten countries with the highest increase in egg exports between 1993 and 213 and their share in the global export growth; data in 1, t (Source: FAO database, own calculations) Exports Share (%) in global exports Turkey Poland Netherlands Germany USA Malaysia China Spain Belarus Saudi Arabia countries 1,4 *84.1 World 1, Table 11: The ten countries with the highest increase in egg imports between 1993 and 213 and their share in global import growth; data in 1, t (Source: FAO database, own calculations) Imports Share (%) in global exports Iraq Germany Netherlands Italy Mexico Russian Federation Singapore United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Afghanistan , countries 979 *81.8 World 1, At first glance it may be surprising that Germany and the Netherlands are found among the countries with the highest increase in egg exports and egg imports (Table 11). The explanation is that several large Dutch egg producers bought or built egg farms in eastern Germany after the reunification of the former two German states. They export the produced eggs as table eggs or eggs for further processing back to the Netherlands from where they are either marketed as table eggs or are further processed. This trade is counted as export by FAO. This explains also the high growth in egg imports by the Netherlands despite a self-sufficiency rate of more than 3 % and the German export of eggs despite a self-sufficiency rate of only 67 % in 213. The steering factors behind the export and import dynamics in some of the other countries were already explained in the preceding chapters. INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 8

10 Summary and perspectives The main results of the preceding analysis can be summarised as follows: Only 2.9 % of the global egg production was traded in 213. In egg exports as well as in imports, the old industrialised countries were in a dominant position. Despite an absolute growth in the export volume, the old industrialised countries lost 19.2 % of their 1993 share while the newly industrialised countries gained 17.6 %. In egg imports, the old industrialised countries lost 11.3 % of their share in 1993; the less developed and newly industrialised countries gained 2.5 % and 5.7 % respectively. The highest absolute increase in egg exports between 1993 and 213 was shown by Turkey and Poland, a result of the extraordinary dynamics of the poultry industry in both countries in the last decade. The highest absolute increase in egg imports was to be found in Iraq, a result of the almost complete destruction of the poultry industry since the beginning of the Iraq war. Stable patterns in egg trade exist between the Netherlands and Germany, the leading countries in exports and imports. The preceding analysis shows that the old industrialised countries lost considerable market shares in global egg trade. With exports, this is due to the growing importance of several newcomers in egg export, such as Turkey and Poland; regarding imports it is a consequence of the high level of per capita egg consumption and only small growth rates, but also of the increase in production which has led to high self-sufficiency rates. In the newly industrialised countries, exports grew considerably over the analysed time period, a result of the dynamics in egg production. Egg imports of the less developed countries showed a remarkable increase. This documents the growing importance of egg as a valuable and affordable protein source for the fast growing population in this Development Group. It also reveals, however, that domestic production in these countries is not able to meet the increasing demand. INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 9

11 Data source and additional literature FAO database: Windhorst, H.-W.: The role of BRICS countries in global egg production and trade. In: Zootecnica international 37 (215), Nr. 6, S Windhorst, H.-W.: Patterns and Dynmaics of the EGG Industry in Eastern Europe and Middle Asia. London: International Egg Commission S. Windhorst, H.-W.: The Netherlands the leading country in European egg and poultry meat exports. In: Zootechnica international 38 (216), Nr. 1., S Windhorst, H.-W.: The extraordinary dynamics of the Turkish poultry industry. In: Zootecnica international 37 (215), Nr. 9, S Windhorst, H.-W.: The role of developing and newly industrialised countries in global egg industry. In: Annual Review 215,London: International Egg Commission 215, S Windhorst, H.-W.: Germany remarkable recovery from the earlier banning of conventional cages. In: Zootecnica international 38 (216), Nr. 3., S Acknowledgement The author wants to thank Mrs. Ursula Welting for the design of the graphs in this paper. INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June 216 1

12 IEC Statement on Corporate and Social Responsibility The International Egg Commission, on behalf of the global egg community, defines social responsibility as balancing the needs of people, animals and the planet. When evaluating our social responsibility, we are passionate about: 1 Producing safely, the highest quality protein. 2 Feeding the growing population, and ensuring food affordability. 3 Providing choice. 4 Caring for the environment. 5 Ensuring the health and wellbeing of our hens. International Egg Commission INTERNATIONAL EGG COMMISSION Special Economic Report Egg Trade June