LIBERALIZATION OF AGRI-FOOD TRADE WITHIN CEFTA BETWEEN

Transcription

1 FOUNDATION OF ASSISTANCE PROGRAMMES FOR AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL POLICY ANALYSIS UNIT ul. Wspólna 3 Room Warszawa tel. (+48 22) fax. (+48 22) saepr@fapa.com.pl LIBERALIZATION OF AGRI-FOOD TRADE WITHIN CEFTA BETWEEN SUMMARY REPORT BY:Wanda Chmielewska-Gill Błażej Korona Adam Poślednik Marta Zielińska WARSAW, SEPTEMBER 24.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. The assumptions behind CEFTA establishment Agricultural specification: lists Agri-food trade of selected CEFTA countries in 23 and throughout the whole period of CEFTA existence...4 Poland...4 Trends in total Polish agri-food trade in the year Trade with CEFTA between Trade with CEFTA in the first quarter of Geographical structure of Polish trade with CEFTA in Geographical structure of Polish trade with CEFTA between Poland s trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries with the focus on the degree of trade liberalization... 8 Slovakia...11 Trade with CEFTA in Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA in the year Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA between Slovak trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries considering a degree of trade liberalization Romania...17 Trade with CEFTA in the year Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA in Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA between Polish trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries between Verification of assumptions...23 The Authors: The SAEPR Team want to express special acknowledgments to:ms. Dagmar Motoskova, Svetlana Andrisova and Mr.Gabriel Dome (Slovakia) and to Mr. Aurel Marascu (Embassy of Romania) for providing the access to the required data concerning trade. 2

3 1. The assumptions behind CEFTA establishment The Free Trade Zone CEFTA 1 was established pursuant to an agreement signed on December 21, 1992 in Kraków with a view to come into force in The founding countries included the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, followed by Slovenia in 1996, Romania in 1997 and Bulgaria in CEFTA membership is open to countries which fulfill three basic conditions that they are the signatories of the Association Agreement with the EU, they are WTO members and they have signed free trade agreements with all the CEFTA member countries. CEFTA was established in order to: exercise a broadly understood multilateral cooperation before joining the EU structures; integrate the Visehrad Group economies; reinforce trade relationship among those countries through trade liberalization and tariff reduction; open domestic markets to the products of other CEFTA member countries. Initial plans included establishing a Free Trade Zone for industrial goods (from the very outset of CEFTA operations and for agri-food products (from 1998). Original suggestions were to lower tariffs for agri-food products by 5% from January 1, 1996 and to phase them out entirely by January 1, However, in the course of the very first meetings it became broadly acknowledged that the liberalization of agri-food trade, in such a way, was impossible due to three main reasons. Firstly, that CEFTA countries suffered from growing surplus of food supplies (often of the same products) whilst demand was not growing at the same time. Secondly, that there was an urgent need to transform the agricultural sectors so that they could operate within a market economy. Thirdly, CEFTA countries lacked the will to unify their agricultural policies. Each member country applied different levels of support to agriculture, which eventually resulted in different prices of the same products on different markets. As a consequence the representatives of CEFTA member countries failed to agree to reduce the tariffs by 5% or to start the full liberalization process brought about only the establishment of A, B and C concession lists, which grouped products by a degree of sensitivity to competition, to which various tariff reductions were applied. Another consequence of the difficulties in striking a joint agreement between all the CEFTA states were bilateral agreements, based on which, two CEFTA states could trade their products on preferencial conditions. The bilateral, as well as the multilateral agreements entered into by Poland, including the agreements with the CEFTA states, became invalid on May 1, 24. Due to Poland s accession the the European Union all responsibility concerning a common trade policy has been taken over by European Commission. 2. Agricultural specification: lists The rules of agri-food trade within CEFTA divide products into groups listed on concession lists. These lists group the products depending on their sensitivity to competition and feature different tariff rates. A list (approx: 5% of tariff items) includes agri-food products with a low degree of sensitivity to competition. A % tariff rate applies to this group of products in trade within CEFTA. These products include: breeding animals, sea fish, citrus fruit, wheat, cakes, dried vegetables, cocoa. B list (approx: 12% of tariff items) includes products showing a medium degree of sensitivity to competition. This group of products was burdened with identical tariff rates for all CEFTA members (between 4-37%). The products include: beef, pigmeat, milk, cream, rye, confectionery not containing cocoa, certain canned vegetables and fruit and sugar-free mineral water. 1 Central European Free Trade Agreement 3

4 C/D list (approx: 38% of tariff items): The content of this list was agreed as a result of bilateral talks. This list contains agri-food products which are very sensitive to competition, for which lower tariffs were agreed in comparison to the generally applicable level of tariffs. The items on the list include: poultry, cheeses, eggs, peas, onions, apples, cucumbers, malt, bakery products, chocolate (the C list relates to products exported from e.g. Poland, D list includes products imported to Poland). Apart from the above mentioned lists there is a group of highly sensitive commodities, with regard to which no preferences apply. 3. Agri-food trade of selected CEFTA countries in 23 and throughout the whole period of CEFTA existence Poland! The 23 export surge resulted in a positive agri-food trade balance with CEFTA, reaching ca: USD million.! The main trading partners of Poland with regard to both 23 exports and imports included the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.! The 23 exports as well as imports were dominated by commodities subject to liberalization, the C/D lists accounting for the greatest share in both cases. Trends in total Polish agri-food trade in the year 23 In 23 the total Polish agri-food trade exceeded 22 result by 25% reaching over USD 4.5 bl. Since the rate of exports surge was in general faster than in the case of imports, which in the period under consideration reached the value of USD 4 billion., for the first time for 12 years Poland had a positive agri-food trade balance exceeding USD 55 million. The main reason for increased exports was the increase by over 53% - of the revenue from the sale of processed animal products, processed fruit and confectionery. In total the increase in the sales of processed plant products was, in 23, 3% greater than in 22, the share of this group of products in Polish exports slightly decreasing, nevertheless, still accounts for a third of the total value of Polish agri-food exports. 2 With regard to 23 agri-food imports, Poland recorded an increase (by 14%) in imports of products of plant orgin, which accounted for nearly 25% of the value of the total agri-food imports. The share of plant products in the overal import structure decreased to a level of 24% compared to 27% in 22. The value of imports increased in the following product groups: fish and fish products (15% increase), processed products of animal origin (1% increase); slight increase was recorded in the import of beverages (3% increase). As a result, the import value of agri-food products was 12% higher than in Based on data from the report Polish International Trade in Agri-Food Products in the Year 23 r. FAMMU/FAPA, June, 24. 4

5 Trade with CEFTA between % 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % The share of argi-food trade with CEFTA in total agri-food trade (%) export import The value of Poland s agri-food trade with CEFTA countries systematically grew throughout the whole period of Poland s membership in the Free Trade Zone. In comparison to 1996, by 23 an increase of 196% was recorded (up to a level of USD 943.5). Between as well as in 23 the growth rate was maintained at a high (ca: 3%) level. In the remaining years it was slightly lower but never negative. By 1995 the value of imports to Poland greatly exceeded that of exports, which resulted in a growing loss in the balance of trade. However, in the following years the rate of the growth of exports greatly exceeded that of imports. Between Polish exports to CEFTA countries increased in total by 58%, with imports increasing only slightly, by 72%. This direction of trade development proved to be very beneficial to Poland allowing it to narrow the gap between the values of exports and imports. In 21, two years earlier than in respect of agrifood trade with all the countries, Poland reached and maintained a positive agri-food trade balance with CEFTA countries. Growing trade was a consequence of gradual broadening of the CEFTA territory as well as improving conditions of international trade and increasing access to CEFTA members markets. Also recorded in the period of Poland s membership in CEFTA was a growing share of Polish agri-food trade with CEFTA in total agri-food trade. In 1996 this share amounted to nearly 4.7% and in 23 it had increased to 11.1%. Despite the fact that CEFTA has played a greater and greater role in Polish trade the block has never become its main trading partner. With regard to agri-food trade with CEFTA in 23 Poland recorded a positive balance of trade amounting to USD million. The increased trade surplus with CEFTA resulted from a faster rate of exports growth (increase by 36%) rather than that of imports (increase by over 15%). An increase of Polish agricultural exports was recorded in the case of each CEFTA member country. In the period under consideration the following products accounted for the greatest share in the imports of agri-food products from CEFTA: malt, starch, wheat and triticale, butter and confectionery as well as processed vegetable products. Exports included mainly chocolate confectionery and other confectionery, cheeses and soft cheeses, extracts, essences and concentrates of coffee and tea, as well as processed and canned fish. Trade with CEFTA in the first quarter of 24 In the first quarter of 24 Poland recorded a positive balance in agri-food trade with CEFTA countries, amounting to USD 46.1 million. In the period under consideration Poland recorded a negative trade balance with Bulgaria. In the case of the remaining countries Poland was a net exporter of agri-food products. In comparison to the same period of the previous year a significant increase of export of Polish agri-food products was recorded with regard to Slovakia (increase by 36%) and the Czech Republic (increase by 19%) the main trading partners as far as exports are concerned. Alternatively, significant growth of import in comparison to the first quarter of 23 was recorded in the case of Romania (over twice) and Bulgaria (an increase by 24%). However, these countries are not the main Polish trading partners as far as imports are concerned. 5

6 Polish agri-food trade (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year= I-III TOTAL Exports ,42 137,53 Imports ,99 112,22 Balance ,33 CEFTA Exports 315,9 353,1 399,3 544,1 152,1 113,1 136,3 Imports 352,4 324,8 345,1 399,6 16, 16,3 115,8 Balance -36,5 28,3 54,2 144,5 46,1 191,6 266,8 Source: own calculations based on CIHZ 1 data Geographical structure of Polish trade with CEFTA in 23 The main Polish trading partners within CEFTA as far as the 23 exports are concerned, included: the Czech Republic (42% share), Hungary (22% share) and Romania (17% share). The Czech Republic and Hungary were, together with Slovakia, also the main importers to Poland: the Czech Republic (37% share), Hungary (31%) and Slovakia (18% share). 23 saw increased Polish agri-food exports to all the CEFTA countries. The greatest increase concerned exports to Bulgaria (by 63% up to USD 2 million) and Romania (by 6% up to USD 99 million). Significant increase of Polish exports was also noted with respect to the main trading partners: the Czech Republic and Hungary (by 27% and 36%, respectively). In the case of imports, Poland increased its imports to all the countries. The most spectacular import growth in 23 related to trade with Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia (by 66%, 32% and 22%, respectively). In the period under consideration imports with Slovenia increased over twice due to a low level of trade in 22 but Slovenia is not considered as the main Polish trading partner with respect to imports. Hungary 31% Poland: agri-food imports with CEFTA 23 Bulgaria 8% Poland: agri-food exports with CEFTA 23 Hungary 22% Bulgaria 4% Slovenia 3% Slovenia,6% Slovakia 18% Czech Republic 37% Slovakia 12% Czech Republic 42% SAEPR/FAPA Romania 5% SAEPR/FAPA Romania 17% Geographical structure of Polish trade with CEFTA between In the period concerned, the main Polish trading partners within CEFTA included the Czech Republic and Hungary as well as Slovakia. Since 1998 significant exports were also noted with respect to 1 FTDC Foreign Trade Data Centre 6

7 Romania. The remaining countries joining CEFTA played a rather marginal role in the trade with Poland saw a significant but short lasted increase of exports to the Czech Republic. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Geographical structure of Polish exports with CEFTA (%) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Geographical structure of Polish imports with CEFTA ( %) % % Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Between the main trading partners for exports included the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. From 1997 onwards the share of the Czech Republic started to decrease to the benefit of Hungary and Romania whose share in the Polish exports increased by 14% on average between Polish imports from CEFTA were dominated by products from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia; however, the share of Hungary was decreasing to the benefit of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Between the share of Hungary in Polish imports accounted on average for 54%, and then, between , it decreased to 37%. Trade, geographical structure and dynamic of Polish agri-food trade with CEFTA countries Value (in USD) Share % Change (22=1) I-IV 24 th. EUR I-IV EXPORTS Bulgaria , 3,1 3,7 4,6 163,3 Czech Rep ,8 44,7 41,9 41, 127,7 Hungary ,7 21,9 21,8 21,5 136, Romania ,4 14,9 17,4 15,4 16 Slovakia ,8 11,8 11,6 14,5 133,8 Slovenia ,3 3,7 3,5 3, 13 Total ,2 IMPORTS Bulgaria ,8 6,9 7,9 9,1 131,9 Czech Rep ,8 37,1 36,8 34,4 115, Hungary ,9 34,7 31,1 3,3 14, Romania ,2 3,6 5,2 11,2 166,5 Slovakia ,5 17,5 18,4 14,2 122,2 Slovenia ,8,3,6,8 24,7 Total ,8 BALANCE Bulgaria Czech Rep Hungary Romania Slovakia Slovenia Source: Own calculations based on CIHZ data 7

8 Poland s trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries with the focus on the degree of trade liberalization Polish agri-food trade with CEFTA was, over the past few years, been dominated by goods covered under the trade liberalization policy (C/D and A and B lists). In 23 the share of these products in the total share of agri-food imports with CEFTA amounted to 93%, and in exports- 8%. Goods from A and B lists dominated trade with CEFTA countries and accounted for 47.3% of imports, and C/D lists dominated exports and accounted for a 41% share. In 23, 39,9% of the value of Polish exports to the CEFTA states came from goods contained on the A and B lists. The greatest share of these products was recorded in Polish exports to Romania (6% share), Bulgaria (58% share) and Hungary (45% share). From 2 onwards, the share of goods contained on the A and B lists started to decrease and reached 47.3% in 23 (compared to 47% in 22). The greatest share of goods from A and B lists was recorded in the case of Polish imports from Hungary (68% share) and the Czech Republic (45% share). Goods included in A and B concession lists had a greater share in Polish trade with CEFTA than those from the C/D lists. From 2 to 22 the share of goods from C/D concession lists gradually increased, however, in 23 it decreased to a level of 45% (5% in 22). The greatest share of goods covered with concessions in the framework of C/D lists was noted in the case of Polish imports from Slovakia (64%) and Bulgaria (51%). This group accounted for a smaller share of Polish exports; in 23 the share was on average 41%, the greatest share was recorded in the case of exports to Slovenia (54%) and Czech Republic (47% share) as well as Slovakia (44% share). Concession lists with the greatest share in Polish agri-food trade in 23. Trading partner Imports Exports Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Slovakia Slovenia CEFTA C/D lists 51% No concession 34,4% C/D lists 49,3% A list 31,5% B list 36,1% A list 32,2% C/D lists 48,9% A list 29,4% C/D lists 63,9% A list 23,2% No concession 4,9% C/D lists 36,7% C/D lists 45,4% A list 28,3% Source: Own calculations based on CIHZ data. B list 35,6% C/D lists 28,4% C/D lists 47,1% No concession 22,1% C/D lists 37,8% A list 3,7% B list 4% C/D lists 6,4% C/D lists 44,% No concession 22,5% C/D lists 53,6% No concession 25,2% C/D lists 4,7% A list 21,2 % 8

9 Polish export in the frames of concession lists between The value of Poland's exports with CEFTA (in mln USD) lista A lista B lista C/D The value of Poland's imports with CEFTA (in mln USD) lista A lista B lista C/D The period saw an increase of the value of Polish exports to CEFTA states in the framework of all concession lists. The biggest growth was noted in the case of goods covered with C/D concession lists. In 1996 the goods covered within the C/D lists accounted for 32% of Polish exports to CEFTA states, and by 23 it was already 41%. Comparing to 1996, exports of the goods concerned in the framework of this list increased over 8 times. Converselly, the value of exports of products listed on A and B lists rose, in relation to 1996, by 419% and 562%, respectively. In 1996 the share of goods from A and B lists in Polish exports amounted to 52.8% and in 23 decreased to 39.9%. From 1996 onward there has been a significant increase in Polish export of goods not covered by concessions. Their exports in 23 rose over 11 times in relation to the year Polish imports in the frames of concession lists between The value of Polish imports from CEFTA accepted in the framework of concession lists gradually increased from 1996, to reach, in the year 23, the value of USD 37 million (in 1996 it was USD 22 million). In 1996 Poland imported mainly goods from B and C/D lists from other CEFTA states. They accounted for, respectively 37% and 36% of the total Polish imports from CEFTA states. Within the following 8 years the import structure changed significantly. In 23, 45% of Polish imports from CEFTA zone included goods from the concession lists C/D, 28% from A list and 19% from B list. In the period under consideration, the biggest increase was recorded with regard to the value of imports of goods covered by the A list almost fourfold. The value of Polish imports within the C/D concession lists rose over twice in relation to 1996, and the value of import of B list goods decreased by 13%. Poland: exports to Bulgaria 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 35, 3 25, 2 15, Poland: imports from Bulgaria 6, 1 3, 5,

10 Poland: exports to Czech Republic (mln USD) Poland: imports from Czech Republic Poland: exports to Hungary 12 15, 9 75, 6 45, 3 15, Poland: imports from Hungary Poland: exports to Romania , 2 16, 12, 8, 4, Poland: imports from Romania

11 Poland: exports to Slovakia Poland: imports from Slovakia Poland: exports to Slovenia 3 25, 2 15, 1 5, 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5 Poland: imports from Slovenia Slovakia 3! As far as trade with CEFTA, Slovakia was a net importer. The negative balance of 23 trade amounted to USD - 55 million USD and decreased by ca: 4% as compared with 22r.! The most important trade partners for Sloavkia within CEFTA include, in terms of exports as well as imports., the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary.! In the trade with CEFTA during the year 22 the goods listed on A, B lists accounted for 49% of imports, and in the case of exports, the greatest share i.e. 53.6%, was that of goods from C/D lists. Trade with CEFTA in 23 Slovakia recorded a continual deficit in trade with CEFTA countries since In 23 this negative balance decreased by ca: 41% and amounted to USD - 55 million, compared with USD 94 million in the previous year ( the 1996 deficit reached USD 117 million). Since 1996 Slovakia has had a positive trade balance with Poland (USD 6.1 million in 23, USD 9.5 million in 22). In 23 a positive balance was also recorded by Slovakia in trade with other CEFTA countries as did Bulgaria, Romania, 3 Prepared based on the data of Slovakia Ministry of Agriculture, Slovakia Institute of Agriculture and Food Economics and CIHZ. The data may differ from those originating from other sources. 11

12 Slovenia and Hungary. This amounted respectively to USD 1.1 million, USD 14.9 million, USD 2.7 million and USD 8.1 million. The only negative balance in trade with CEFTA countries in 23 was that of the Czech Republic (USD-88.9 million) and due to the dominant role of the Czech Republic in the trade with CEFTA, this situation has resulted in a negative balance in trade with the whole block. Slovakia recorded a negative trade balance with the Czech Republic from 1996 onwards. In 23 the value of trade with CEFTA countries increased to the amount of USD 966 million versus USD 863 million in 22, of which the share of the Czech Republic the main trading partner, amounted to USD 663 million (almost 67%). Agri-food trade of Slovakia within CEFTA (in USD million) Value (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year= Exports 259,3 252,71 295,99 384,77 455, ,3 Imports 358,8 33,72 49,37 478,77 51,95 117, 16,7 Balance -99,5-78,1-113,38-94,1-55,87 82,9 59,4 Source: Data made available by the Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural Institute of Slovakia Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA in the year 23 In 23 the most important trade partners for exports included the Czech Republic (63% share), Poland (17% share) and Hungary (14% share). In comparison with 22, there were no significant changes of these export partners. These countries were also the biggest importers to Slovakia (the Czech Republic with a 74% share and Hungary and Poland 11% and 13% - respectively). Romania,5% Slovakia: agri-food imports with CEFTA 23 Poland 13,6% Slovenia,2% Bulgaria,7% Slovakia: agri-food exports with CEFTA 23 Poland 17% Slovenia 1% Bulgaria 1% Romania 4% Hungary 11% Hungary 14% SAEPR/FAPA Czech Republic 74% SAEPR/FAPA Czech Republic 63% Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA between Between the Czech Republic was the most important trading partner as far as exports from Slovakia were concerned. In the period exports from the Czech Republic accounted for over 76% of the total exports to the CEFTA countries. From 2 the Czech share decreased in favour of exports from Hungary and Poland (14% and 18% share, respectively), but it has still remained at a high level (averaging 64%). The Czech Republic was also the most important partner for imports. From 1998 the share of the Czech imports in the total Slovak imports from CEFTA amounted to ca: 76%. It was followed by Hungary with an average share of 12% and Poland with the 11% share. 12

13 1% Geographical structure of Slovak exports with CEFTA (%) 1% Geographical structure of Slovak imports with CEFTA (%) 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% % % % Czech Republic Poland Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Poland Hungary Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Trade, geographical structure and dynamic of Slovak agri food trade with CEFTA Value (in USD million) Share % Change (22=1) EXPORTS Bulgaria 1,49 2,34 2,44 2,58 4,89,6,9,8,7 1,1 189,7 Czech Rep. 177,58 164,68 185,4 244,36 287,2 68,5 65,2 62,5 63,5 63,1 117,5 Poland 43,86 44,99 58,2 67,56 75,82 16,9 17,8 19,7 17,6 16,7 112,2 Romania 3,97 5,39 6,2 7,75 17,27 1,5 2,1 2, 2, 3,8 222,8 Slovenia 3,8 2,71 3,23 3,5 4, 1,2 1,1 1,1,9,9 114,5 Hungary 29,32 32,6 41,6 59,3 65,9 11,3 12,9 13,9 15,3 14,5 111,7 CEFTA 259,3 252,71 295,99 384,77 455, ,3 IMPORTS Bulgaria 1,,71 1,18 1,8 3,76,3,2,3,4,7 29,3 Czech Rep. 276,38 252,12 39,64 365,1 376,15 77, 76,2 75,6 76,3 73,6 13, Poland 33,34 38,48 4,37 58,3 69,73 9,3 11,6 9,9 12,1 13,6 12,2 Romania,28 1,3,91 1,16 2,3,1,4,2,2,5 197,9 Slovenia 2,15 1,54 1,24 1,64 1,24,6,5,3,3,2 75,6 Hungary 45,65 36,57 56,3 51,4 57,76 12,7 11,1 13,7 1,7 11,3 113,2 CEFTA 358,8 33,72 49,37 478,77 51, ,7 Source: data made available by the Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural Institute of Slovakia Slovak trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries considering a degree of trade liberalization Due to a lack of certain data for 21 concerning trade between Slovakia and the Czech Republic, taking account of the particular concession lists of agri-food products, this report is not complete and does not include the Slovak trade within CEFTA for the year 21. Slovak exports to the remaining CEFTA countries were dominated by goods for which trade conditions were subject to partial liberalization (C/D lists). The share of goods from C/D lists in the 23 total Slovak exports to the CEFTA countries amounted to 53.6%. The largest amount of Slovak goods from C/D lists was exported to Poland (65.7% share) and Romania (6.% share). The share of commodities listed in A and B lists in the total of 23 exports to the CEFTA coutries amounted to 41.4%. The biggest share of B list products, i.e. 57.5% was recorded in Slovak exports to Bulgaria. The share of goods listed in A and B lists was also significant in exports to Hungary and Slovenia and, in the year under consideration, amounted to 52.7% and 55.4%, respectively. 13

14 Slovak imports were dominated by goods covered in concessions of the framework of A and B lists. Their share in the 23 imports to CEFTA countries amounted to 49.2%. The share of goods contained on A and B lists (together) was most significantly of imports from Romania, Slovenia and Bulgaria (71.3%, 76.1% and 65.3%, respectively). In 23 the the share of goods from C/D lists was the largest in the case of Slovak imports from Poland (57.1%) and Hungary (41.7%). The share of goods covered with concessions in the frames of C/D lists in total Slovak exports to CEFTA in the year 23 amounted to 48.4%. Concession lists with the greatest share in Slovak agri-food trade in the year 23. Country Imports Exsports Bulgaria List A 59,5% Lists C/D 2,2% List B 57,4% List A 13,2% Czech Republic Data not available Data not available Hungary Poland Romania Slovenia CEFTA Lists C/D 41,7% List A 37,7% Lists C/D 57,1% List A 29,9% List A 67,5% Lists C/D 12,3% List B 42,7% List A 33,2% Lists C/D 48,4% List A 34,7% Lists C/D 42,7% List B 32,3% Lists C/D 65,7% List A 23,6% Lists C/D 6,1% List A 18,4% Lists C/D 37,2% List A 31,9% Lists C/D 53,6% List A 21,7% Source: Data made available by Slovak Ministry of Agriculture. Slovak exports in the frames of concession lists between The value of Slovak exportswith CEFTA (in mln USD) List A List B List C/D * 22* 23* * there is lack of data concerning exports within consesion lists from Czech Republic since 2 Between Slovakia increased its value of exports to the CEFTA countries in the framework of all concession lists, Slovakia was still a net importer of products from CEFTA. In 23 Slovak exports to CEFTA reached the value of USD 455 million and were nearly 9% higher than in In the period under consideration the Czech Republic was the most important Slovak trade partner over 6% of Slovak exports were directed to the Czech Republic. The biggest increase in trade was noted in the case of goods covered in the C/D concession lists. In 1996 the goods covered with C/D lists accounted for ca: 1% of Slovak exports to CEFTA countries, in 23 it was as much as 53.6%. In comparison to 1996, exports of goods in the framework of this list increased almost fourfold. In contrast, the value of exports of A and B lists products (altogether), in relation to 1996 decreased by 67%. In 1996 the share of goods from A and B lists (altogether) in the Slovak exports amounted to almost 9%, and in 23 it decreased to 41.4%. 14

15 Slovak imports within concession lists between The value of Slovak imports with CEFTA (in mln USD) List A List B List C/D * 22* 23* * there is lack of data concerning imports within concesion lists from Czech Republic since 2 From 1996 Slovakia recorded a negative balance in trade with CEFTA. The value of Slovak imports, between , was maintained at a level of USD million. Significant import increase was recorded in 22 and 23. During this Slovakia recorded its smallest negative balance of trade with CEFTA, amounting to ca: USD 94. million and USD 55.8 million, respectively. The largest negative balance was recorded in 1996 (USD million). The value of Slovak imports from CEFTA within the concession lists gradually increased from 1996 onwards, to reach the value of USD 511 million in 23 (in 1996 r. it was USD 359 million). In 1996 Slovakia imported mainly goods from the A and B lists from CEFTA. These accounted for 94% of all Slovak imports from CEFTA, the Czech Republic remaining the main importer to Slovakia between (8% of Slovak imports originated from the Czech Republic). During the following 8 years the import structure changed significantly. In 23, 48.4% of Slovak imports from CEFTA included C/D concession products, and 49.1% included C/D concession products. 5, Slovakia: exports to Bulgaria 4, 3,5 Slovakia: imports from Bulgaria 4, 3, 3, 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1, 1,, Slovakia: exports to Czech Republic Slovakia: imports from Czech Republic

16 12 Slovakia: exports to Poland 8 Slovakia: imports from Poland Slovakia: exports to Romania 2,5 2, Slovakia: imports from Romania , , 4 2, Slovakia: exports to Slovenia Slovakia: imports from Slovenia 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,, ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,,8,6,4,

17 Slovakia: exports to Hungary Slovakia: imports from Hungary Romania! As far as agri-food trade with CEFTA between Romania was a net importer. In 23 this trade deficit amounted to ca: USD 359 million, i.e. it had increased nearly twice when compared to 22.! Hungary and Poland were the main Romanian trading partners within CEFTA in 23, for imports as well as exports. Trade with CEFTA in the year 23. Due to a lack of data for 23 concerning trade between Romania and the remaining CEFTA countries, and considering the particular concession lists of agri-food products, the analysis of Romanian trade exchange has not been based on concession lists. A description of Romania trade in agri-food products with CEFTA has been provided below. Romania has been recording a deficit in its trade with CEFTA. In 23 it amounted to ca: USD -359 million, and was almost twice greater than in 22. The negative trade balance concerned trade with all CEFTA members (except Slovenia, in which case the balance was positive and amounted to USD 1.3 million), the largest being recorded in the case of Hungary (USD -26 million). Between the value of Romanian trade with CEFTA rose dynamically, to fall, in 1999, by ca: 3%. In 23 the value of trade reached USD 57 million (an increase in imports by 78% and exports by 36%) and was more than 44% larger than the already high 21 level (USD 351 million). Romanian Agri-food trade within CEFTA (in million USD) Value (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year = Exports 45,8 5,8 62,44 54,64 74,42 87,5 136,2 Imports 163,62 211,5 289,74 243,41 433,53 84, 178,1 Balance -117,82-16,7-227,3-188,77-359,11 83, 19,2 Source: data made available by the Romanian Ministry of Agriculture Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA in 23. Within CEFTA, in 23, Romania exported mainly to Hungary (42% share) and Poland (23%). These countries were also the main Romanian importers with Hungary having a 55% share and Poland a 25% share. 17

18 In comparison with 22, in 23 the total value of Romanian agri-food exports to CEFTA countries increased by over 36%. This increase was recorded in the case of exports to all CEFTA states. The biggest increase was noted in the case of exports to Bulgaria (over twice) and Poland and Slovakia (an increase by 72% and 68%, respectively). In the case of Romanian imports, increases were recorded to all CEFTA countries. The biggest import increase concerned trade with Slovakia (over 2.5 times, but from a low level) and Hungary the main importer to Romania (an increase by 84%) and Poland (an increase by 66%). Romania: agri-food exports with CEFTA 23 Romania: agri-food imports with CEFTA 23 Hungary 42% Bulgaria 19% Hungary 55% Bulgaria 9% Czech Republic 6% Czech Republic 8% Poland 25% Poland 23% Slovenia 5% SAEPR/FAPA Slovakia 3% SAEPR/FAPA Slovakia 4% Slovenia 1% Geographical structure of trade with CEFTA between The years saw a significant increase in Romanian exports to Hungary. Between this was 26%, to increase, between 2-23, to a level of ca: 52%. Other important partners for Romanian export included Poland (ca: 26% share) and Bulgaria (15% share). Concerning imports from CEFTA, Hungary was also the main trading partner of Romania, but its share in total imports decreased from 69% between to 54% between 22-23, these years saw a significant increase in imports from Poland (from 17% between to 26% between 22-23). An increase was also recorded as far as imports from Bulgaria were concerned, which between was the third Romanian partner in terms of imports. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Geographical structure of Romanian exports with CEFTA (%) Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Romania Bulgaria 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Geographical structure of Romanian imports with CEFTA (%) Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Romania Bulgaria 23 18

19 Trade, geographical structure and dynamic of Romanian agri-food trade with CEFTA Value (in million USD) Share % Change (22=1) EXPORTS Bulgaria 6,84 7,4 6,56 6,1 14,2 14,9 14,6 1,5 11,2 18,8 229,8 Czech Rep. 1,68 1,6 3,13 3,8 5,78 3,7 3,1 5, 7, 7,8 152,2 Hungary 18,48 27,2 34, ,47 4,3 53,5 55,8 55, 42,3 14,8 Poland 15,2 1 12, ,29 32,8 19,7 19,7 18,4 23,2 172,2 Slovakia,42 2,2 2,54 1,37 2,3,9 4,3 4,1 2,5 3,1 168, Slovenia 3,36 2,4 3,6 3,3 3,55 7,3 4,7 4,9 6, 4,8 17,7 CEFTA 45,8 5,8 62,44 54,64 74, ,2 IMPORTS Bulgaria 5,78 7,7 21,53 2,2 38,13 3,5 3,6 7,4 8,3 8,8 188,8 Czech Rep. 11,33 11,4 19,31 19,9 28,5 6,9 5,2 6,7 8,2 6,6 143,2 Hungary 17,24 146,9 185,2 128,6 237,68 65,5 69,5 63,9 52,8 54,8 184,8 Poland 32,6 38,96 53,47 66,11 19,73 19,6 18,4 18,5 27,2 25,3 166, Slovakia 4,69 4,3 7,17 6,9 17,27 2,9 2, 2,5 2,8 4, 25,3 Slovenia 2,52 2,6 3,6 1,7 2,22 1,5 1,2 1,1,7,5 13,3 CEFTA 163,62 211,5 289,74 243,41 433, ,1 Source: data made available by Rumanian Ministry of Agriculture 4. Polish trade in agri-food products with particular CEFTA countries between Slovakia Agri-food trade between Poland and Slovakia In agri-food trade with Slovakia, between Poland was a net importer. The largest negative balance of Polish trade with Slovakia was recorded in 21 and amounted to USD From 1996 the dynamic of Polish imports from Slovakia and Polish exports to that country was maintained at a high level. In 23 the value of Polish exports was, in comparison to 1996, over 7 times higher, and the value of imports was, in the period under consideration, over three times higher. A higher dynamic of export of agri-food products Export Import Balance (increase of 34%) over that of imports (an increase of 22%) that prevailed in 23 resulted, in the case of Poland, in the reduction of its negative balance of trade in this commodity group, which amounted to USD 1.4 million and was the smallest during the whole period of trade in agri-food products in the period Despite a significant increase of export value, Poland failed to systematically lower its negative trade balance with Slovakia, the value of which oscillated within a broad band and twice reached a negative level of nearly USD 25 million. In 23 the share of Polish exports in Slovak imports of agri-food products increased on the year-to-year basis by 1.1 percentage points and amounted to 8.2%. The following items were exported to Slovakia in the largest amounts: bread, rolls, cakes, biscuits (USD 1.2 million), processed food products (USD 8.3 million), sugar (USD 5.3 million), chocolates and other preparations including cocoa as ingredient (USD 4.6 million). Food products imported from Slovakia in the largest amounts included: malt (USD 23.1 million), followed by chocolate and other cocoa containing processed products (USD 12.9 million), maize (USD 9.1 million). 19

20 The trends that prevailed in Polish-Slovak trade during the entire period can be assessed as being particularly favourable to Poland in 23. Statistical data indicates high dynamic of Polish export and a lower dynamic of imports from Slovakia and a lower increase of the negative trade balance. The rate of negative trade balance growth in the year 23 together with significant increase of Polish trade pointed to a favourable trends in the development of Poland s trade with Slovakia. Between the sum of the total volume of agri-food trade between Poland and Slovakia grew systematically (except in 1999 in which year the volume fell). Between 2-23 a higher dynamic of trade with Slovakia was noted. In 23 the total volume of trade was 26.9% higher than in 22 and almost 4 times higher than in Such a significant growth in trade proves that there was a gradual improvement of trade conditions and a fulfilment of original CEFTA assumptions, i.e. progress in the liberalization of trade. Agri-food trade between Poland and Slovakia (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year = Exports 8,9 18,1 3,9 33,2 34,4 34,7 47,3 63,3 136,3 133,8 Imports 25,8 3,6 55,8 44, 47,3 6,2 6,3 73,7 1,2 122,2 Balance -16,9-12,5-24,9-1,8-12,9-25,5-13, -1,4 5,9 79,8 Total trade 34,7 48,7 86,7 77,2 81,7 94,9 17,6 136,6 113,4 126,9 Romania Agri-food trade between Poland and Romania Sources: own calculations based on the data from CIHZ Export Import Balance In the trade of agri-food products with Romania, Poland was a net importer only between In the remaining years a positive trade balance was recorded (the largest one in 23 amounted to USD 74.3 million). As of 1998 a higher dynamic was maintained in Polish exports to Romania. The value of Polish exports in 23 was 2.5 times higher than in Comparing the dynamic of Polish imports of agri-food products from Romania, a decrease in the dynamic may be observed from 1998 onwards (only in the year 23 imports increased by over 66%); in 23 the value of Polish imports from Romania was 43% lower than the high value of 1998 imports. Despite lower dynamic of agri-food exports in 23 (an increase by 6%) in comparison with imports (an increase of 66%), a trend of a growing positive balance of trade in this group of products was maintained and amounted to USD 74.3 million. This result was the best in the entire period of trade in agri-food products between Products exported from Poland to Romania in the largest quantities amounts included: ready-made food products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (USD 55.8 million) and products of animal origin (USD 4.1 million). Imports from Romania to Poland included mainly: fats and oils of plant and animal origin (USD 13,3 million) and ready-made food products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (USD 2,4 million). The results of Polish-Romanian trade in the period can be assessed as being favourable to Poland, especially since The data indicates higher dynamic of Polish exports and lowering dynamic of imports as well as an increase of the positive trade balance, thanks to which Poland reinforced its position of a net exporter. Imports to Poland, however, were characterised by low stability levels, probably resulting from the lower competitiveness of Romanian products. From 1999 onwards an increase in trade was observed. In 23 this was 61% higher in comparison to 22 and over 3 times higher than in This significant increase in the dynamic of trade suggests that Polish-Romanian trade within CEFTA was rather favourable. 2

21 Agri-food trade between Poland and Romania (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year.= Exports 9, 11, 36,2 28,1 35,6 5,8 59,3 94,9 116,8 16 Imports 27,9 14, 36, 19,5 13,9 16,7 12,4 2,6 73,8 166,5 Balance -19, -2,9,2 8,7 21,7 34, 46,9 74,3 137,9 158,3 Total trade 36,9 25, 72,2 47,6 49,5 67,5 71,7 115,5 16,2 161,1 Bulgaria Agri-food trade between Poland and Bulgaria Export Import Balance Source: own calculations based on CIHZ data Since 1996, with the exception of 1997, Poland was a net importer of agri-food products from Bulgaria. The negative trade balance systematically increased from 2 when it amounted to USD 1.4 million and in 23 it reached USD 19 million, which is the largest value in this period. This result of trade is the effect of systematically growing imports to Poland of agri-food products from Bulgaria whilst maintaining, since 1998, a stable level of exports. Exports were maintained at a level between USD million. In comparison to 1998, in 23 exports grew by nearly 2% to a level of USD million, and imports by nearly 125% to a level of USD million. In 23 Poland exported to Bulgaria mainly fresh, chilled or frozen pigmeat (USD 3.75 million), bread, cakes and biscuits (USD 2.35 million) and chocolate and other processed food products having cocoa as ingredient (USD 1.95 million). These three groups of products generated as much as 65% of the value of Polish exports to Bulgaria in the period under consideration. Products imported to Poland from Bulgaria in the year 23 included wine (USD million), vegetables, fruit, nuts and other edible parts of processed or preserved parts of plants (USD 7.68 million) as well as pet foods (USD 5.1 million). These products accounted for over 8% of the value of Polish imports from Bulgaria of total agri-food products. It can be seen in the analysis of Polish exports as well as that of imports from Bulgaria that there is a very high degree of concentration in the exchange of certain commodity groups, which generate a major share of trade. This is the proof that there is high specialization of production and trade of these countries within these selected commodity groups. Such trends visible in the agri-food trade between Poland and Bulgaria are not favourable to Poland. The negative balance of trade is systematically growing and within the last few years Poland has not increased its exports to Bulgaria. Due to increased imports from Bulgaria since 2 the total trade volume increased (in 23 the trade volume was 21% higher than in 22 and 65% higher than in 2), however in the entire period Poland remained a net importer (except in 1997 in which a positive trade balance was recorded). Agri-food trade between Poland and Bulgaria (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year= Exports 2,7 24, 1,3 1,3 12,6 14, 12,4 12,4 88,5 1,1 Imports 1,5 13,3 14, 18,1 14, 18,9 23,8 31,4 126,1 131,9 Balance -7,7 1,7-3,7-7,7-1,4-4,9-11,4-19, 233,1 166,3 Total trade volume 13,2 37,3 24,3 28,4 26,6 32,9 36,2 43,8 11,1 12,9 Source: own calculations based on CIHZ data 21

22 Czech Republic Agri-food trade between Poland and Czech Republic Agri-food trade between Poland and Czech Republic between can be, from the point of view of Poland, assessed positively. Except in 1996 and 2 Poland maintained the position of net exporter of these products. This result of trade is all the more important as the Czech Republic is Poland s main trading partner and the volume of trade with this country is the largest of all the CEFTA countries. -5 Between the balance of trade systematically grew, from a negative value in 1996 (USD 22.6 million) to a positive value in Export Import Balance the following year (USD 6.4 million). In 23 the balance remained at the positive level of USD 8.7, i.e. was almost 12 times higher than in Such favourable conditions of trade between Poland and the Czech Republic were possible only thanks to the faster rate of growth of exports from Poland to the Czech Republic than that of imports. In 23, in comparison with 1996, while import increased almost twice (to USD million), exports increased more than four times (to USD million). The main products exported from Poland to the Czech Republic in the year 23 included: bread, cakes and biscuits (USD million), cheeses and cottage cheeses (USD 24.8 million) and processed food products not listed in other groups (USD million). The share of exports of these groups of products in total agri-food exports from Poland to the Czech Republic accounted for nearly 3%, which proved a significantly high specialization in the sales of these products. Malt as well as processed agri-food products not listed in the remaining groups were the most important items as far as imports from Czech Republic to Poland (USD 28.7 million and USD million, respectively) were concerned. Imports of these two commodity groups accounted for 28 % of total agri-food imports from the Czech Republic to Poland. The undifferentiated structure of the imports also proved this specialization. A trend to more dynamic increases of exports rather than imports allowed Poland to recover its position of net exporter in this commodity group. In addition, year on year, except in 2, Poland systematically reinforced its position by increasing its positive trade balance. The total 23 trade volume was by 22% higher than in the year 22 and almost three times higher than in 1996, which suggests that the Polish-Czech trade exchange as very favourable. Agri-food trade between Poland and Czech Republic (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year= Exports 53,1 83, 119,9 128,2 139,5 158,2 178,4 227,8 112,7 127,7 Imports 75,7 76,6 79,2 81,3 152, 122,8 127,9 147,2 14,1 115, Balance -22,6 6,4 4,8 46,9-12,5 35,4 5,5 8,7 142,6 159,8 Total trade volume 128,8 159,6 199,1 29,5 291,5 281, 36,3 375, 19, 122,4 Source: own calculations based on CIHZ data 22

23 Slovenia Agri-food trade between Poland and Slovenia Export Import Balance Agri-food trade between Poland and Slovenia had played a marginal role in the trade with CEFTA countries from the point of view of Poland. Polish exports of agri-food products to Slovenia between exceeded imports a few times. Thanks to this Poland has been maintaining a strong position of a net exporter. In the period under consideration this position was systematically strenghtening. In 1996 the positive balance of trade amounted to USD 1.8 million, while in 23 it reached USD 16.7 million. This result was possible due to a significant increase of Polish exports in this period. The rate of export growth between significantly exceeded that of imports from Slovenia. In the period under consideration imports grew by 13% to a level of USD 2.3 million, exports growing by 58%. In 23 Poland exported to Slovenia mainly bread, cakes and biscuits (USD 4.62 million) and processed food products not listed in the remaining groups (USD 3.64 million). Exports of these groups of products generates as much as 43% of exports of all the commodity groups. The imports of agri-food products from Poland to Slovenia are of a marginal importance. One major import item, accounting for 4% of total imports, was pet foods. As a Polish trading partner, Slovenia did not play an important role, however, the volume of trade between Poland and Slovenia systematically grew to a level of USD 29 million in 2. In the period the volume amounted to the average level of ca: USD 18 million. In 23 the sum of trade volume was 36% higher than in 22, but 26% lower than the record results of 2. Agri-food trade between Poland and Slovenia (in million USD) Dynamic, previous year= Exports 2,8 4,7 12,1 19, 26,7 15,3 14,6 19,1 95,8 13,1 Imports 1,,8,9 2,2 2,3 2,6 1,1 2,3 44,5 24,7 Balance 1,8 3,9 11,2 16,8 24,3 12,7 13,5 16,7 16,3 123,7 Total trade volume 3,8 5,5 13, 21,2 29, 17,9 15,7 21,4 87,7 136,3 Source: own calculations based on CIHZ data 5. Verification of assumptions The degree - to which the original assumptions behind CEFTA establishment were implemented - exceeded initial expectations of CEFTA founding countries, despite the fact that a full liberalization of agri-food trade was a failure. This exercise strenghtened trade ties among the countries belonging to the block. CEFTA also proved to be a practical excercise which has helped its members prepare to participate in European Union structures. One must not forget, however, that the assumptions of CEFTA establishment were rather general, which at present makes their verification rather difficult. The stable growth of the volume of trade of the CEFTA members is the most significant proof of the economic integration of CEFTA countries as well as the reinforcement of their trade relations through liberalization. This volume grew in respect of all the CEFTA members, however, the most significant growth relates to Polish trade. The 23 volume of trade grew by 196% in comparison to 1996, and in comparison to 1993, by over 55%, of which exports grew by over 96% and imports by 32%. Significant growth in trade volume was also recorded by Romania (185% in the period 1996 to 22) and Bulgaria (11% in the period 1998 to 22). Much slower growth rates of trade with CEFTA were recorded by Hungary (56.9% between ) and in Slovakia (48.4% between ). 23