TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE. Milk Market Observatory 26 September 2017
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1 TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE Milk Market Observatory 26 September 2017
2 Belgium Product August 2017 vs. August 2016 Consumer Price Index Total 2016 vs Consumer Price Index Whole milk +1.5% +7.2% Semi-skimmed milk +4.2% +6.9% Concentrated and powdered milk +5.0% +2.7% Yoghurt +1.9% +0.2% Butter +24.7% +1.6% Dairy Products % change in volume % change in value % change in price August 2017 vs % -0.8% +0.3% Total 2016 vs % -0.4% +0.6% Source: Nielsen ScanTrack 2
3 France Period ending 3 September 2017 Product category Volume ) 4 weeks period (P9 16/P9 17) Volume ) Year on year (P9 15-P9 16 / P69 16 P9 17) Price ) 4 weeks period (P9 16/P9 17) Price ) Year on year (P9 15-P9 16 / P9 16 P9 17) Total liquid milk -6,5% -4,4% +3,9% +0,9% Of which UHT semiskimmed milk Yoghurt & fresh cheese -9,5% -6,5% +2,2% +0,3% -2,5% -1,3% +1,2% -0,5% Butter -1,7% -1,7% +11,4% +2,8% Cream +6,2% -2,4% +2,7% +0,3% Cheese +0,7% +0,3% +2,5% +0,2% Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 3
4 France Sales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products Organic milk & dairy products Organic dairy products sales have continued to increase. The increase is registered for every product, except liquid milk. This decrease is due to the shortage of supply in France. 40% Consumption of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products % in volume, year to year 52 weeks 03/09/2017 Organic Conventional 27.8% Organic market shares (% vol. 03/09/2017) 22.4% Liquid milk 7.1% 20% 14.8% 11.2% 8.2% Yogurts 3.7% 0.3% Butter Cream 1.8% 3.6% 0% -4.2% -7.2% -1.9% -3.7% -2.0% -2.8% Fresh cheese 1.1% Cheese 0.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -20% Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh cheese Butter Cream Cheese Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l Agriculture) 4
5 France Butter market The French butter market is still decreasing, but premium segments are increasing (AOP : +6,6%, organic : +5,8%). Private labels are losing market share (sales decreased by 4,3%) while national brands increased (Elle & Vire : +10%). 5
6 Italy Period: 2016 vs Product category VOLUME (2016 vs % change) VOLUME Q vs Q VALUE (2016 vs % change) VALUE Q vs Q Fresh milk -3,5% -0,4% -4,4% -1,7% UHT milk -3,1% -3,2% -6,8% -6,1% Yoghurt +0,7% 0,0% -1,0% -1,8% Fresh cheese (1) +1,0% +0,9% -1,7% -1,6% Fresh dessert +4,2% +7,2% +3,2% +4,5% Cheese (1) +2,2% +2,7% +0,03% +1,1% Source: Market Track Nielsen (1) Peso imposto 6
7 Italy Period: 1H 2017 vs. 1H 2016 Product category VOLUME (1H 2017 vs. 1H 2016 % change) VOLUME (Q vs Q % change) VALUE (1H2017 vs. 1H % change) VALUE (Q vs Q % change) Fresh milk -4,9% -5,3% -2,1% -1,2% UHT milk -2,0% -1,7% -1,4% +0,3% Fresh cheese (1) +0,8% +2,1% +1,0% +2,9% Cheese (1) +2,0% +1,6% +2,7% +2,9% Fresh dessert +3,0% +2,2% +3,2% +2,6% Dessert -1,2% -3,5% -5,4% -8,0% Butter -7,0% -4,4% +2,3% +5,7% Béchamel / Cream -1,9% 0,5% -2,3% 0,4% Yoghurt -1,5% -2,2% -2,4% -3,2% Source: Market Track Nielsen (1) Peso imposto 7
8 Italy Period: 1H 2017 vs. 1H 2016 Source: Market Track Nielsen * Peso imposto 8
9 Italy Period: 2Q 2017 vs. 2Q 2016 Source: Market Track Nielsen * Peso imposto 9
10 Italy Milk and dairy products Volume evolution Source: Market Track Nielsen * Peso imposto 10
11 Italy 11
12 Portugal Period ending August 2017 Product category Volume, year-to-date) Volume, year-on-year) Value, year-to-date) Value, year-on-year) Fresh milk -11,4% -11,7% -10,8% -11,1% UHT milk -3,6% -5,1% +0,2% -1,2% Yoghurt -4,2% -4,2% -3,7% -2,3% Fresh cheese -1,6% -1,3% -0,1% -0,5% Butter -2,3% -2,2% +3,4% +1,5% UHT cream -1,5% -0,1% +0,8% +1,1% Fresh dessert +5,0% +7,6% +2,3% +8,3% Cheese +1,7% +2,3% +3,5% +3,2% Source: Nielsen 12
13 Portugal Period 2016 vs 2015 Product category Volume ) Value ) Fresh milk -10,7% -10,3% UHT milk -7,7% -11,5% Yoghurt -2,1% -0,1% Fresh cheese +1,6% +0,6% Butter -1,2% -3,7% UHT cream +0,9% -0,5% Fresh dessert +13,1% +14,7% Cheese +4,6% +1,5% 13 Source: Nielsen
14 Spain Period ending July 2017 Product category Volumes July 2017 vs July 2016) Volumes YTD July 2017) Value July 2017 vs July 2016) Value YTD July 2017) Price July 2017 vs July 2016) Price YTD July2017) Standard liquid milk Other types of milk Milkshakes Yoghurts and fermented milk Fresh desserts Fresh cheese Local, traditional cheese Processed cheese Imported 14 cheese specialties -3.1% -4.7% -3.0% -5.2% +0.2% -0.6% +7.6% +5.6% +4.0% +0.3% -3.4% -5.0 % -2.7% +0.8% +4.4% +4.5% +7.3% +3.7% +1.0% 0.0% -1.3% -2.4% -2.2% -2.4% -2.5% -4.0% -1.4% -3.0% +1.1 % +1.0% +0.4% -1.6% +2.5% -0.4% +2.0% +1.2% +1.4% +2.3% +3.8% +3.0% +2.3% +0.7% +4.1% -0.9% +3.9% +0.5% -0.2% +1.4% +7.2% +5.5% +9.4% +5.6% +2.1% +0.1%
15 Spain Period ending July 2017 Product category Volumes July 2017 vs July 2016) Volumes YTD July 2017) Value July 2017 vs July 2016) Value YTD July 2017) Price July 2017 vs July 2016) Price YTD July 2017) Grated cheese Other types of cheese +7,6% +2,6% +10,1% +4,5% +2,3% +1,8% +9,5% +4,1% +9,9% +3,8% +0,3% -0,3% Cream +2,2% 0,0% +6,0% +1,7% +3,7% +1,7% Butter +16,6% +11,6% +20,0% +14,1% +3,0% +2,2% Desserts and yoghurt with long conservation Non-liquid milk Total dairy products -17,6% -15,9% -12,6% -11,4% +6,1% +5,4% +2,2% -2,4 % -2,8% -6,7% -4,9% -4,5% 0,0% -1,5% +1,7% -0,7% +1,7% +0,8% 15 Source: Nielsen and FeNIL
16 Spain - retail price of fresh milk and butter Fresh Milk Butter Source: Magrama 16
17 Spain Source: Nielsen and FeNIL 17
18 Spain 18
19 Spain Total liquid milk Dairy products Cheese Volume (000s l) 2016 Variation 2016 vs 2015 Value ( 000s) 2016 Variation 2016 vs 2015 Consumption per capita 2016 Variation 2016 vs , , ,14-2,2% -0,6% +1,4% , , ,91-2,6% -0,6% +0,1% 72,86 39,60 8,02-0,6% 1,0% +3,1% 19 Source: Magrama
20 United Kingdom 20
21 United Kingdom 21
22 United Kingdom unit price (p) Aug-17 July-17 Month Diff. Aug-16 Annual Diff. Liquid milk Retail (4 pints)* Doorstep (1 pint)** n/c 81 n/c ppl Jul-17 Jun-17 Month Diff. Jul-16 Annual Diff. Cream Total Cream Double Cream Single Cream p/kg Jul-17 Jun-16 Month Diff Jul-16 Annual Diff. Cheddar Total market Mature Mild updated monthly ; updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label) **milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online 22
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