Benzene Supply & Demand Balance

Transcription

1 Benzene & Balance Hideki Ito Group Manager JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation

2 Benzene & Balance December 2011 JX 日鉱日石エネルギーエネルギー株式会社 Contents 1. Benzene s Global Turnover 2. Global Balance of and in the Medium Term 3. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term - Japan - South Korea - Taiwan - China Mainland - Far East Asia - Southeast Asia - Asia as a Whole 4. Benzene Market Performance 5. Summary Reference: Comparison of Prices in Global and China Domestic Markets Market Share of Derivatives by Nation( ) Features of Imp. & Exp. Market in Far East Asia 35

3 1-1. Benzene s Global Turnover KT 292KT West Europe 896KT 42KT Africa +42KT 280KT Northeast Europe +280KT 533KT The Middle East +292KT 241KT Far East Asia +558KT 292KT Southeast Asia +533KT 850KT North America 1030KT 221KT South America +221KT 1-2. Benzene s Global Turnover KT West Europe 1510KT 603KT 100KT The Middle East +363KT 607KT Northeast Europe +607KT 342KT 990KT Far East Asia +942KT 392KT North America 1429KT 148KT Africa +50KT 240KT 390KT South America +148KT 200KT Southeast Asia +829KT 36

4 2-1. Global Balance of and in the Medium Term Asia America (KT) Growth % 2-2. Global Balance of and in the Medium Term Europe Middle East etc. (KT) Growth % 37

5 3-1. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term Japan Given shrinking both supply and demand, Japan will still keep surplus of 200KT. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [Japan] 3-2. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term South Korea With surplus always above 1000KTA, South Korea s surplus in 2014 will be enlarged. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [South Korea] 38

6 3-3. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term Taiwan Though supply increases partially, Taiwan still keeps import of 600KT-700KT. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [Taiwan] 3-4. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term China Mainland On larger supply expansion than demand growth, China Mainland s fundamental will change from balance to surplus in the future. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [China Mainland] 39

7 3-5. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term China Mainland SM s & Balance in China Mainland Growth 3-6. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term Far East Asia Given supply growth faster than demand s, surplus in Far East Asia will keep increasing. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [Far East Asia] 40

8 3-7. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term Southeast Asia Given rising supply from Singapore and India, surplus in Southeast Asia will keep growing. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [SE Asia] 3-8. Asian Balance of and in the Medium Term Asia as a Whole Asia will keep exporting more benzene to other areas on increasing surplus in both Far East and Southeast Asia. Benzene s Balance of and ( ) [Asia as a Whole] 41

9 4-1. Benzene Price Trend in the Past Years Since 2009, price trend has changed from USCP>EUCP>ACP to EUCP>USCP>ACP more frequently. Prices of Crude Oil and Benzene Year / Month 5. Summary Global Balance - Benzene s global growth rate of supply and demand from 2011 to 2014 is 4%. - Asian surplus will still offset the shortage in Europe and US, especially that West Europe will see more shortage in the future. Asia as a Whole - In , benzene s demand and supply will increase by 6.4% and 7.1% respectively. Far East Asia - Japan: Surplus of 200KT will remain with decreasing supply and demand. - S. Korea: Though supply and demand both on the rise, surplus of over 1000KT will widen. - Taiwan: A region with stable import of KT per year. - China Mainland: With supply growth faster than demand, the market will become long. Southeast Asia - Increasing supply from Singapore and India will lead to larger surplus. Forecast for Price - As surplus in Asia is estimated to increase, spread between the prices in Asia and the values in Europe and US will remain. Market Sentiment from September 2011 to Present Benzene market sentiment has been gloomy since Sep, as credit crisis in Europe and economy recession in the US resulted in declines of benzene prices in the two regions and then made its derivatives difficult to be exported there, and also because benzene production was hard to reduce on bullish PX sentiment, but demand was even dampened by the flood in Thailand. 42

10 (Reference) China Mainland 2011 Comparison of Prices in Global and China Domestic Markets Benzene International Prices VS China Domestic Prices FK Domestic Prices in China Benzene FK Benzene US ($) Benzene NEW China Domestic (Reference) Market Share of Derivatives by Nation 2011 Others, 7% Aniline, 9% Japan 4073KT CHX, 12% SM, 55% Phenol, 18% Others, 4% Aniline, 6% CHX, 10% Phenol1 7% 2366KT Taiwan CHX, 2% Phenol, 38% SM, 60% South Korea SM, 63% 3205KT 7138KT China Mainland Others, 19% SM, 45% Aniline, 19% CHX, 9% Phenol, 8% SM Phenol CHX Aniline Others 43

11 (Reference) Market Share of Derivatives by Nation 2014 Aniline, 8% Oth ers, 6% Japan 3915KT Others, 4% Aniline, 6% South Korea 3741KT CHX, 9% CHX, 14% Ph enol, 18% SM, 5 3% Phe nol 24% CHX, 2% 2400KT Taiwan Ph enol, 38 % SM, 60 % SM, 57% 10342KT China Mainland Oth e rs, 1 6 % S M, An ilin e, 4 2 % 1 9% SM Phenol CHX Aniline CHX, 1 0 % Phe n o l, 1 4 % Others (Reference) Features of Imp. & Exp. Market in FE Asia - Japan: Shipping turnover is about 880KTA - South Korea: Shipping turnover is about 200KTA,and import volume is also about 200KTA. - Taiwan: Given insufficient internal supply in this region, import is necessary. - China Mainland: Domestic prices are lower than international prices, so the import is limited. 44