Effect of new markets on the supply-demand balance

Transcription

1 Effect of new markets on the supply-demand balance Presentation to ICO Seminar Robert Simmons, LMC International, Oxford, UK Global coffee consumption has grown at by over 2% per annum over the last decade to over 135 mn bags per annum % Consumption (mn bags) C % 1.5% 1.%.5% Average annual growth (%).% Consumption Series2 Annual average growth 1

2 In recent years, consumption growth has been dominated by emerging markets 24 Con nsumption index (199=1 ) Mature Producers Growth has been strong in both coffee producing countries and non-coffee producing countries 26 ) sumption index (199=1 Cons Emerging (Non-producers) Producers 2

3 This has reduced the importance of mature markets, although they are still the largest segment of consumption 8 7 Consumption (mn bags) Mature Producers Other Emerging Around 2.5 mn bags are being added to consumption each year (8% of this growth is in the emerging markets) rease in consumption (' bags) Annual incr 1,2 1, Mature Producers Other Emerging

4 Rising incomes are driving this growth (along with a growing middle class and urbanisation) Per capita consumption (kg g) , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, Per capita income ($) but per capita consumption levels remain relatively low in the emerging markets kg per year Finland Sweden Norway Netherlands Lebanon Denmark Slovenia Austria Croatia Germany Brazil Cyprus Switzerland Israel Belgium France Italy Serbia Greece Hungary Canada Czech Portugal USA Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Algeria UAE Spain Japan NZ Romania Australia Jordan UK Korea Malaysia Ireland Taiwan Colombia Singapore Saudi Arabia Russia Mexico Ukraine Ethiopia Thailand Morocco Argentina Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Turkey Chile S Africa Fiji Egypt India Iraq China 4

5 Consumption growth tends to follow an S curve: slow start, rapid acceleration, stagnation Imports (' tonnes) Japan Imports Consumption per capita Per capital consumption (kg p er capita) Tastes are also important, high soluble consumption is linked to high per capita tea consumption. 1% Soluble (%) 9% Australia Russia China UK 8% Chile 7% 6% India 5% 4% Japan 3% 2% France Canada 1% Germany Brazil US % Finland Per capita tea consumption (kg/annum) 5

6 Per capita consumption is higher in the coffee producing countries than other emerging markets. Producers have a taste for coffee Americas (p) r capita consumption (kg) Per 2.5 CE Europe Africa (c) 1. Asia (p) Asia (c).5 Africa (p). 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, 16, 18, Per capita income ($) Growth in emerging market demand has seen a large increase in robusta demand both as a proportion of total consumption 7% 6% Ro obusta proportion (%) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Mature Producers Other Emerging

7 and in absolute volumes. This is due to growing conillon use in Brazil and higher soluble consumption 3 Consumption (mn bags) Mature Producers Other Emerging There is greater flexibility in terms of blend formation in the mature markets. Least flexibility in the coffee producing countries. 5% 45% EU-27 imports imports % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% Washed Naturals Robusta 7

8 Conclusions Coffee consumption is growing at around 2.5 mn bags per annum. 8% of this demand is in emerging markets Growing incomes are a key driver of this growth Robusta accounts for over half of this growth Oxford (HQ) 4 th Floor, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street, Oxford OX1 3HJ UK T F info@lmc.co.uk New York 1841 Broadway New York, NY 123 USA T +1 (212) F +1 (212) info@lmc-ny.com Kuala Lumpur B-3-19, Empire Soho Empire Subang Jalan SS16/1, SS Subang Jaya Selangor Darul Ehsan Malaysia T info@lmc-kl.com Singapore 16 Collyer Quay #21- Singapore T info@lmc-sg.com LMC International, 213 All rights reserved This presentation and its contents are to be held confidential by the client, and are not to be disclosed, in whole or in part, in any manner, to a third party without the prior written consent of LMC International. While LMC has endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the data, estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, any decisions based on them (including those involving investment and planning) are at the client s own risk. LMC International can accept no liability regarding information analysis and forecasts contained in this presentation. 8