Quarterly Economic Review of the Food and Beverages Industry in South Africa

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1 Quarterly Economic Review of the Food and Beverages Industry in South Africa April June 2017 DIRECTORATE: AGRO-PROCESSING SUPPORT agriculture, forestry & fisheries Volume 4, number 1

2 PREFACE This publication Quarterly Economic Review of the food and beverage Industry in South Africa: April to June 2017 by the Directorate: Agro-processing Support serves to provide an overview of the economic performance of the food and beverage industry in South Africa. The food and beverages industry in South Africa is one of the sub-sectors of agro-processing that plays a dominant role in terms of output and employment in the agro-processing sector. By adding value to the primary agriculture and fisheries production, the food and beverages industry stimulates output and job creation in the primary sector and contributes directly to the food security of the country. In addition, it played a pivotal role in supplying inputs to the food and beverage service industry, wholesale and retail sectors. One of the core businesses of the Directorate: Agro-processing Support is to provide timely and updated economic information regarding the food and beverages industry to monitor its performance and provide insight into the effects of economic policies and exogenous factors on the industry. The main economic indicators reviewed are the changes in prices, production, capacity utilisation, value of sales, formal employment and trade. An outlook of the industry for the next quarter is also presented. In addition, some indicators of the food and beverages service industry, wholesale and retail sectors are reviewed to evaluate the forward linkages of the food and beverages industry. Any comments and suggestions on the content of the publication are most welcome. Victor Thindisa Director: Agro-processing Support Pretoria Disclaimer: The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries did everything to ensure the accuracy of the information reported in this publication. The department will, however, not be liable for the results of action based on this publication. i

3 CONTENTS PREFACE... i 1. INTRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS PRICE PRODUCTION VALUE OF SALES INCOME FROM FOOD SALES IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY TRADE EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK BEVERAGES PRICE PRODUCTION VALUE OF SALES INCOME FROM BAR SALES IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY TRADE EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK CONCLUSION REFERENCES NOTES: Compiled by Directorate: Agro-processing Support Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Sefala Building 503 Belvedere Street, Arcadia, South Africa All correspondence can be addressed to: Director: Agro-processing Support Private Bag X416, Pretoria 0001, South Africa Tel.: +27 (12) Fax: +27 (12) VictorTH@daff.gov.za This publication is also available on the internet at: ii

4 1. INTRODUCTION The global economic growth is projected to increase from 3,2% in 2016 to 3,6 % in 2017 and 3,7% in 2018, an upward revision of 0,1 percentage point for 2017 and 2018 relative to April. Economic activity is projected to pick up speed in all country groups except for the Middle East and forecasts of the strength of the outlook by region have changed only modestly (IMF, 2017). Growth is forecast to increase strongly in emerging market and developing economies, from an upwardly revised 4,3% in 2016 to 4.6% in 2017 and 4,9% in 2018, a 0,1 percentage point increase for 2017 and 2018 relative to the April forecast. The upward revisions to the growth forecast primarily reflect stronger projected activity in China and in emerging Europe for 2017 and 2018 (IMF, 2017). In South Africa, the real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded in 2017: Q2, advancing at an annualised rate of 2.5%, following two successive quarters of contraction. The recovery in 2017: Q2 reflected a turnaround in the real output of both the secondary and the tertiary sectors. The real gross value added (GVA) by the primary sector advanced at a slightly slower pace as output growth in the mining sector slowed notably. By contrast, real agricultural output increased at a brisk pace; largely on account of the record domestic maize crop (Reserve Bank, 2017). During 2017: Q2, the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for food and beverages increased by 3,2% from a 0,9% growth in the last quarter, while it rebounded year-on-year by 2,0% from a contraction of 0,4% in the last quarter. The quarterto-quarter seasonally adjusted value of sale for food and beverages rebounded by 2,3% from 0,7% contraction in the previous quarter, while it moderated year-on-year by 3,8% from a 5,2% growth in the previous quarter. As result, the nominal value of food and beverages increased from R million in the last quarter to R million in the current quarter. The trade deficit of food and beverages narrowed from R3 048,3 million in the previous quarter to R25,9 million in the current quarter. The employment in the food, beverages and tobacco industry contracted quarter-to-quarter by 1,4% from 0,9% growth, resulting in jobs being shed in the current quarter as compared to jobs created in the previous. However, it increased modestly year-on-year by 2,8% from 1,7% previously. This quarterly review assesses the economic performance of the food and beverages industry, at a time of a moderate global economic growth and a rebound of domestic economic activities recorded during 2017: Q2. 2. FOOD PRODUCTS According to the Standard Industrial Classification, the food industry incorporates groups of products which are categorised into the following four codes: Code 301 refers to manufacturing, processing and preservation of meat, fish, vegetables, fruits, oils and fats Code 302 refers to manufacturing, processing and preservation of dairy products Code 303 refers to manufacture of grain mill products, starch products and prepared animal feeds 1

5 Code 304 refers to manufacture of other food products like bread, sugar, chocolate, pasta, coffee, nuts and spices. Hereafter, food products refer to those primary agricultural and fisheries products that have undergone some form of change through manufacturing and processing or performed some value addition activities such as preservation. 2.1 PRICE Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1 The quarter-to-quarter consumer price index of all items moderated by 1,1% in 2017: Q2, following a marginal increase of 1,9% in the previous quarter. Some of the items that registered a moderate growth under the period were: meat (3,4%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (0,7%), fish (0,4%) and milk, cheese and eggs (0,4%). However, sugar, sweets and deserts grew by 4,6%, while, fats and oils, fruits and (bread and cereal) contracted by 2,8%, 2,5% and 2,2%, respectively, while vegetables remained unchanged (see Table 2.1) Similarly, the year-on-year consumer price index of all items moderated by 5,2% in 2017: Q2, following a 6,5% growth recorded in the previous quarter. All food products moderated year-on-year, except for a contraction in oils and fats (1,7%) and vegetables (3,4%), while meat increased marginally by 12,2%. Table 2.1: Consumer price Index of food products Indices % change between Food products All items (CPI Headline) Food and nonalcoholic beverages Weight 2016: Q2 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2016: Q2 and 2017: Q2 2017: Q1 and 2017: Q ,5 101,5 102,6 5,2 1,1 15,4 96,4 102,2 102,9 6,8 0,7 Food 14,2 96,5 102,2 102,9 6,7 0,7 Processed 6,8 94,9 101,4 102,2 7,7 0,8 Unprocessed 7,4 97,7 102,8 103,4 5,8 0,6 Bread and cereals 3,5 95,1 100,7 98,5 3,6-2,2 Meat 4,6 96,2 104,4 108,0 12,2 3,4 Fish 0,4 95,8 101,9 102,3 6,8 0,4 Milk, eggs and cheese 1,7 96,5 101,1 101,5 5,2 0,4 Oils and fats 0,5 99,7 100,7 97,9-1,7-2,8 Fruit 0,2 93,4 99,3 96,8 3,6-2,5 1 Stats SA defines CPI as a current social and economic indicator that is constructed to measure changes over time in the general level of prices of consumer goods and services that households acquire, use, or pay for. 2

6 Vegetables 1,6 105,4 101,7 101,7-3,4 0,0 Sugar, sweets and deserts 0,6 89,0 101,8 106,4 19,5 4,6 Other food 0,9 93,6 101,5 100,1 7,0-1,3 Source: (Stats SA, 2017a) Producer price index (PPI) 2 The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year producer price index for all final manufactured goods moderated by 0,9% and 4,5%, following a growth of 1,4% and 5,6%, respectively in the last quarter. The items that moderated quarter-to-quarter were: meat and meat products (2,4%) and fruit and vegetables (1,3%), however, sugar, grain mill products and (starches and starch products and animal feeds) decelerated by 7,6%, 5,8% and 5,5%, respectively. On the other hand, grain mill products, and starches and starch animal feeds products contracted, the year-on-year, by 10,7% and 3,4%, while bakery and dairy products moderated by 4,4% and 6,6% respectively, oils and fats decelerated by 4,0%. Table 2.2: Producer price index of food products Indices Food products Weight 2016: Q2 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 Final manufactured goods (Headline PPI) % change between 2016: Q2 and 2017: Q2 2017: Q1 and 2017: Q ,5 100,9 101,8 4,5 0,9 Food products 26,3 95,1 100,4 100,4 5,6 0,0 Meat and meat products 4,5 91,7 103,3 105,8 15,4 2,4 Fish and fish product 1,6 94,4 97,8 98,3 4,1 0,5 Fruit and vegetables 2,4 94,8 100,3 101,6 7,2 1,3 Oil and fats 0,5 100,5 99,5 96,4-4,0-3,0 Dairy products 3,3 96,8 100,0 101,1 4,4 1,1 Grain mill products 1,8 103,1 97,7 92,0-10,7-5,8 Starch and starch products, animal feeds 1,6 96,5 98,7 93,3-3,4-5,5 Other food products 0,9 94,8 100,3 100,6 6,1 0,3 Bakery products 6,9 95,3 100,1 101,6 6,6 1,5 Sugar 1,9 91,4 100,3 92,7 1,5-7,6 2 OECD defines the Producer Price Index (PPI) as a measure of the change in the prices of goods either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. The PPI can be used as an economic indicator of inflation, as an escalator in contracts and as a deflator in the calculation of the national accounts. 3

7 Source: Stats SA (2017b) Import unit value index 3 Table 2.3 presents the import unit value of selected food products. During the period under review, the import unit value of food products registered a positive growth of 1,5% quarter-toquarter and negative growth of 8,9% year-on-year. The fats and oils and grain mill products registered a negative growth of 18,2% and 1,5% year-on-year; however, fats and oils stagnated quarter-to-quarter while grain mill products grew by 3,9%. Table 2.3: import unit value index of food products Food products Indices 2016: Q2 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2016: Q2 and 2017: Q2 % change between 2017: Q1 and 2017: Q2 Food (total) 109,3 98,1 99,6-8,9 1,5 Fats and oils 101,5 100,0 100,0-1,5 0,0 Grain mill products 121,0 95,3 99,0-18,2 3,9 Source: Stats SA (2017c) 2.2 PRODUCTION Source: Statistics SA (2017d) Figure 2.1: presents a physical volume of production by the food products division. The quarter-to-quarter physical volume of production of meat, fish, fruit etc. moderated by 0,4%, 3 IMF defines export and import unit value index as a measure the overall change in the prices of transactions in goods and services between the residents of an economic territory and residents of the rest of the world. The average unit value is obtained by dividing the value of exported/imported goods in monetary terms with the respective volume/weight of the goods. 4

8 while other food products increased by 4,6%. Moreover, dairy products increased marginally by 2,8% and grain mill products bounced back by 0,2% in 2017: Q2. On the other hand, the year-on-year physical volume of production of other food products and dairy products bounced back by 7,3% and 2,4%, respectively; however, physical volume of production of grain mill products moderated by 1,1% and meat, fish, fruit, etc. contracted by 0,7%. Production capacity Table 2.4: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Food products (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Shortage of Raw materials Labour Skilled Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 2016: Q2 81,3 18,7 2,2 1,4 0,2 10,3 4,7 2017: Q1 80,6 19,4 2,3 1,4 0,3 11,0 4,4 2017: Q2 81,8 18,2 2,1 1,2 0,2 11,2 3,4 Source: Statistics SA (2017e) The utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises of food products showed a marginal growth year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter (see Table 2.4). Insufficient demand and other reasons such as low productivity and shortage of raw materials are the main reasons of underutilisation during the period. 2.3 VALUE OF SALES Source: Statistics SA (2017d) 5

9 During 2017: Q2, the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted value of sales of food products bounced back by 0,5%, following a 0,7% contraction in the previous quarter. On the other hand, the year-on-year seasonally adjusted value of sales moderated by 2,4%, following a growth of 5,4% in the previous quarter (see Figure 2.2). Figure 2.3 shows the performance of food items under the food product division during the current period. Dairy and (meat, fish, fruit, etc.) products moderated by 1,9% and 1,1% as compared to growth of 2,6% and 1,8%, respectively, in the last quarter. Source: Statistics SA (2017d) Wholesale and retail sales 4 The current value of wholesale and retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco are given in Figure 2.4. The quarter-to-quarter wholesale and retail of food, beverages and tobacco rebounded by 5,4% and 6,4% in the current quarter, following a contraction of 13,2% and 18,3%, respectively, in the previous quarter. However, it grew by 8,6% and 14,9% year-on-year following a growth of 3,8% and 12,9%, respectively as recorded in the previous quarter. As a result of the positive growths, the current value of income from wholesale and retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased from R24,8 billion and R6,4 billion in the previous quarter to R26,2 billion and R6,8 billion, respectively in 2017: Q2. 4 Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) conducts a monthly survey covering enterprises in the wholesale and retail trade industry. The results of the monthly wholesale and retail trade sales survey are used to compile estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and its components, which are used in monitoring the state of the economy and formulation of economic policy. These statistics are also used in the analysis of comparative business and industry performance. 6

10 Source: Statistics SA (2017f, 2017g) 2.4 INCOME FROM FOOD SALES IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY 6 Table 2.5 below shows the income from food sales in the service industry which includes food sales in restaurants and coffee shops, take-away and fast food outlet and catering services. The quarter-to-quarter income from food sales registered an improved negative growth of 1,0%, following a contraction of 10,9% in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year income from food sales moderated by 5,9% from a 7,5% growth registered previously. As a result, the current value of income from food sales in the service industry moderated from R4,33 billion in the previous quarter to R4,29 billion in the current quarter. Source: Statistics SA (2017) The current income from food sales in the service industry registered an improved negative growth of 1,0%, following a contraction of 10,9% in the preceding quarter. The quarter-to- 7

11 quarter increase can be attributed to the growth in take-away/fast food which rebounded by 5,7% from a 16,2% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the income from restaurants and coffee shops and catering services registered a negative growth of 5,8% and 1,0%, respectively in the current quarter. On the other hand, the year-on-year income from food sales moderated by 5,9% following a 7,5% growth in the previous year. The moderate growth can be the result of the following: a modest growth in take-away/fast food by 8,5% and the moderate growth in restaurant and coffee shop of 5,9%, however, catering services registered an improved negative growth of 1,7% in 2017: Q2. During the quarter under review, the total income from restaurant and coffee shop, take-away/fast food and catering services stand at R2,0 billion, R1,6 billion and R0,5 billion, respectively. Source: Statistics SA (2017h) 2.5 TRADE Main food export destinations and products Figure 2.7 shows food export destination share of the continents. Africa was the main export destination during 2017: Q2. it accounted for more than half of exports (69%), followed by Asia and Europe, which accounted 13% and 12%, respectively, of the total share of food export.. The Americas and Oceania altogether accounted for 5% of the total food export share. The trend during the past five years shows Africa has the largest share of the total food export, which is above 50%. 8

12 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Figure 2.9 shows the food export destinations share of the main regions 5 in 2017: Q2. Among the main regions, SACU (Excluding RSA) accounted the highest share of food export (35%) followed by SADC (Excluding SACU) (27%), EU (11%), Eastern Asia (7,0%), Western Asia (5,0%) and Western Africa and NAFTA with 3,0% each. 5 The main regions which are included in the analysis are the top eight regions: SADC, Western Africa, EU; NAFTA (North Atlantic Free Trade Area consists of USA, Canada and Mexico); Eastern Asia (includes China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea); Western Asia (mostly middle east countries); South Central Asia (include India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) and Australia and New Zealand. 9

13 Source: Quantec EasyData (2016) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Figure 2.10 shows that the eight countries that accounted for food export share during 2017: Q2 were from Africa: Botswana (12,1%), Namibia (11,6%), Mozambique (8,0%), Zimbabwe (6,7%), Lesotho (6,7%), Zambia (5,4%), Swaziland (4,7%) and Angola (2,9%). Of the European countries, only Germany accounted for 2,3% share of total food exports during 2017: Q2. Of the Asian countries, its only China that accounted for a share 3,0% of the total food export. Table 2.5 presents the major exported food products during 2017: Q2 and Table 2.6 shows the year-on-year high and low export performers of food products during the current quarter under review by comparing the export values of the present quarter to the same quarter of the previous year (year-on-year). 10

14 Table 2.5: Major exported food products in 2017: Q2 HS Code HST Food product Flours, meals and pellets, of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates Total amount (R million) 351,7 HST Mixtures of juices 240,7 HST Other, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption 218,0 HST Soups and broths and preparations therefore 186,5 HST Margarine, excluding liquid margarine 139,5 HST190531: Sweet biscuits 133,4 HST Semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed 131,7 HST Yogurt 121,0 HST Prepared foods obtained by the swelling or roasting of cereals or cereal products 118,4 HST Wheat or meslin flour. 103,4 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Table 2.6: Export performance of food products HS Code Food product High performers % Change compared to a year ago HST Other, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption ,4 HST Castor oil seeds 70708,4 HST Oil-cake and other solid residues 19588,1 HST Edible products of animal origin 602,1 HST Glucose and glucose syrup 511,6 HST Germ of cereals, whole, rolled, flaked or ground 413,3 HST Castor oil and its fractions 386,7 HST Cane molasses 344,5 HST Wheat gluten, whether or not dried 250,8 HST Of other cereals 219,9 Low performers 11

15 HST Fats and oils and their fractions, of marine mammals -100,0 HST cotton seeds -100,0 HST Sesame oil and its fractions. -89,4 HST Blue-veined cheese and other cheese -86,1 HST Meat of bovine animals -85,2 HST Of turkeys -85,0 HST Other fructose and fructose syrup -83,9 HST Butter -72,9 HST Oil-cake and other solid residues -71,6 HST Vegetable materials and vegetable waste, vegetable residues and by-products -71,4 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Main source of food imports and imported food products South Africa s main source of food import during 2017: Q2 is presented in Figure South Africa imported approximately 60% of its food from Asia and Europe. The share of Africa (23%) and the Americas (16%) is also significant, while share of Oceania was marginal at about 1%. Figure 2.12 indicates that during the past five years, Europe and Asia have been the largest sources of food imports, while Africa and Americas have been the least, with Africa showing improvement overtime. Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 12

16 2012: Q2 2012: Q3 2012: Q4 2013: Q1 2013: Q2 2013: Q3 2013: Q4 2014: Q1 2014: Q2 2014: Q3 2014: Q4 2015: Q1 2015: Q2 2015: Q3 2015: Q4 2016: Q1 2016: Q2 2016: Q3 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 % Figure 2.12: The share of continents as a source of food import ( ) Asia Europe Americas Africa Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Regarding South Africa s main trading region, the EU accounts 30% of the total South African food imports, followed by SACU (Excluding RSA) (20%), South-east Asia (18%), South-central Asia (9%), Western Asia (7%), South America (6%), NAFTA and SADC (Excluding SACU) (5%) each during 2017: Q2 (see Figure 2.13). Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 13

17 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Among the top ten countries as sources of South African food imports, the highest was Swaziland with a share of 15,3%, followed by Thailand (9,8%), India (7,1%), Brazil (4,6%), the Netherlands (4,5%), USA (3,9%), Germany (3,8%), China (3,3%), France (2,7%) and Italy with 2,6%, see Figure 2.14). Table 2.6 presents the major imported food products during 2017: Q2. Table 2.7: Top 10 imported food products in 2017: Q2 HS Code Food product Total amount (R million) HST Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their fractions 230,2 HST Mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers' wares of heading 226,3 HST Residues of starch manufacture and similar residues 175,1 HST Cane sugar 137,8 HST Sweet biscuits 111,9 HST Crispbread 89,4 HST Rice flour 73,9 HST Sweet biscuits; waffles and wafers 73,9 HST Oil-cake and other solid residues 59,7 HST Grape juice (including grape must) 53,8 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 14

18 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Figure 2.15 shows the quarterly trade balance of food products. The quarter-to-quarter food imports decelerated by 8,0%, following a 4,7% contraction registered in the preceding quarter, however, the year-on-year food imports registered a moderate growth of 4,4%, following an acceleration growth of 18,4% previously. On the other hand, the quarter-toquarter food exports rebounded by 9,7% as compared to a contraction of 17,0% in the preceding quarter, however, the year-on-year food exports decelerated by 10,1%. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed from R5 061,1 million in the previous quarter to R2 804,3 million during 2017: Q EMPLOYMENT Source: Statistics SA (2017i) Figure 2.16 shows the total number of formal employment in the food products division. The quarter-to-quarter food products contracted by 0,1% as compared to a growth of 0,8% 15

19 registered in the previous quarter. As a result of decline in growth, the employment in the division decreased from in the previous quarter to in 2017: Q2. Source: Statistics SA (2017i) Figure 2.17 shows the number of formal employment of food products division items. The quarter-to-quarter formal employment of meat, fish, fruit etc. decelerated by 3,5% from a 2,3% contraction in the preceding quarter, dairy products rebounded by 4,6% from a 1,7% contraction in the preceding quarter and grain mill products contracted by 1,7% from 1,3% growth in the preceding quarter. Furthermore, other food products moderated by 1,5% from 3,6% growth in the preceding quarter. In addition, and jobs were created in dairy products and other food products divisions, respectively during 2017: Q OUTLOOK Table 2.7: Net balance 6 of BER manufacturing survey: food products 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3* Domestic sales volumes Export sales volumes Production volumes BER calculates the net balance statistics by subtracting the % of the respondents replying down from the % replying up to a particular question. Respondents are asked to compare the current quarter s experience to that of a year ago. A positive net balance implies an improvement (i.e. positive year-on-year growth) and vice versa. Therefore, the net balance varies from -100 to 100 where -100 is the most negative response; 0 is a situation of no change and 100 is the most positive response. 16

20 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3* Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business conditions in 12 months time * Expected Source: BER (2017) A survey of food manufacturing by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) is presented in Table 2.7. The survey shows that the year-on-year outlook for 2017: Q3 is positive for all the variables except for general business conditions and employment. 3. BEVERAGES Beverages according to SIC classification is code 305 and comprises of the following beverage products: Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits; ethyl alcohol production from fermented materials; Manufacture of wine Manufacture of beer and other malt liquors and malt Breweries, except sorghum beer breweries Sorghum beer breweries 7 BER calculates the business confidence index by asking respondents to rate current business conditions as satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Then the index is derived as a gross percentage of the respondents replying satisfactory. A value of 50 is indicative of neutrality, 100 indicative of extreme confidence and 0 of extreme lack of confidence. An index greater than 50 shows the majority of respondents are satisfied with the prevailing economic conditions. 17

21 Manufacture of malt Manufacture of soft drinks; production of mineral waters. 3.1 PRICE Table 3.1 below shows the consumer price indices, producer price indices and export unit value of beverages. The year-on-year and quarter-to-quarter consumer price inflation for alcoholic beverages moderated by 2,2% and 1,2%, respectively. The items that moderated quarter-to-quarter were: hot beverages (1,8%) and cold beverages (0,7%); beer and spirits registered a modest growth of (3,2%) each, while wine rebounded by 0,6%. On the other hand, the producer price index for beverages increased marginally by 0,4%, while exports unit value for beverages registered a negative growth of 3,3%. Hot beverages (11,3%), cold beverages (5,4%) and wine (0,4%) moderated year-on-year. Table 3.1: Price indices of beverages Indices % change between Beverages products Weight 2016: Q2 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2016: Q2 and2017: Q2 2017: Q1 and2017: Q2 Consumer price indices All items (CPI Headline) ,5 101,5 101,6 5,2 1,1 Alcoholic beverages 3,9 99,2 100,2 101,4 2,2 1,2 Spirits 0,8 99,2 101,2 104,4 5,3 3,2 Wine 0,7 99,6 99,4 100,0 0,4 0,6 Beer 2,5 98,8 100,6 103,8 5,1 3,2 Non-alcoholic beverages 1,2 96,0 101,9 103,1 7,4 1,1 Hot beverages 0,3 94,3 103,1 104,9 11,3 1,8 Cold beverages 0,9 96,8 101,4 102,1 5,4 0,7 Producer price index Beverages 8,5 94,8 100,2 100,6 6,1 0,4 Export Unit value Beverages 135,2 107,5 95,1 91,9-14,5-3,3 Source: Stats SA (2017a, 2017b, 2017) 18

22 3.2 PRODUCTION Source: Statistics SA (2017d) Figure 3.1 presents the seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for beverages. During 2017: Q2, the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for beverages registered a modest growth of 5,6%, following a 1,9% growth registered in the previously. However, the year-on-year seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for beverages moderated by 2,0% in the current quarter as compared to a 2,8% growth in the last quarter. Production capacity Table 3.2: Utilisation and reasons for underutilisation of production capacity by large enterprises: Beverages division (percentage) Period Utilisation Reasons for underutilisation Total underutilisation Shortage of Raw materials Labour Skilled Semi and unskilled Insufficient demand Other 2016: Q2 85,5 14,5 2,0 1,0 0,2 7,7 3,6 2017: Q1 82,8 17,2 4,6 1,0 0,3 8,7 2,8 2017: Q2 84,5 15,5 3,6 0,9 0,2 8,2 2,6 Source: Statistics SA (2017e) 19

23 Table 3.2 shows that the year-on-year utilisation capacity moderated during 2017: Q2. However, it increased marginally as compared to the previous quarter. Insufficient demand, shortage of raw materials and other reasons such as seasonal factors remain the main causes for underutilisation during the period. 3.3 VALUE OF SALES Source: Statistics SA (2017d) During 2017: Q2. The quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted value of sales for beverages rebounded by 7,6% in the current quarter, following a 0,7% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the year-on-year seasonally adjusted value of sales for beverages grew modestly by 7,7% in the current quarter, following 4,5% growth recorded previously (see figure 3.2). 3.4 INCOME FROM BAR SALES IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY 8 Figure 3.3 below shows the income from bar sales in the food and beverages service industry in 2017: Q2. The income from bar sales in the food and beverages service industry registered a negative growth of 8,6% in the current quarter. The total income during the period under review stood at R353,3 million. 8 Income from bar sales refers to income from liquor sales. 20

24 Source: Statistics SA (2017h) Figure 3.4 below shows the performance of the bar sales in the service industry, which include restaurants and coffee shops, take-away/fast food outlets and catering services. During the period under review, take-away/fast food outlets and catering services rebounded by 11,5% and 8,9%, following a contraction of 13,6% and 11,9%, respectively in the previous quarter. However, restaurant and coffee shops decelerated by 11,5% from a 10,9% shrink previously. The year-on-year income from the restaurant and coffee shops moderated by 3,9%, income from catering services increased modestly by 13,8% and income from take-away/fast food outlets rebounded by 17,2% in the current quarter. Source: Statistics SA (2017h) 21

25 3.5 TRADE Main export destinations of beverages products Figure 3.5 shows that during the quarter under review, Africa was the largest exports destination for beverages. It accounted for 42% share of the South African total exports, followed by Europe (36%), Americas and Asia accounting for 11% and 10%, respectively. Oceania is the least with (1%). The trend of exports destination s share for the past five years shows that Africa has the larger share, followed by Europe, the Americas and Asia (see Figure 3.6). Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 22

26 Among the main trading regions, the European Union (34%) accounted for most of the total beverages exports, followed by SADC (Excluding SACU) and SACU (Excluding RSA) which accounted for 18% each, NAFTA, East Asia and Eastern Africa Rest which accounted 9%, 5% and 3%, respectively. Western Asia, South-east Asia and Western Africa were the least, which accounted for 2% each (see Figure 3.7). Source: Quantec EasyData (2017)) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 23

27 Figure 3.8 above shows the share of top ten beverages exports destination during 2017: Q2. The following are the main countries that accounted a huge share of beverages exported during the quarter under review: Namibia (9,8%), the United Kingdom (8,9%), Germany (6,7%), the United States of America (5,7%), and the Netherlands (5,4%). However, the following countries have a significant share Mozambique (4,9%), Zambia (4,1%), Botswana (3,8%), Angola (3,3%) and Canada (3,1%). Table 3.3 presents major exported beverages during the current quarter of review, while Table 3.4 shows high and low exports performers of beverages during 2016: Q2 by comparing the exports values of the present quarter to the same quarter of the previous year (year-on-year). Table 3.3: Major exported beverages products in 2017: Q2 HS Code Beverages products Total amount (R million) HST Undenatured ethyl alcohol 358,2 HST Waters, including mineral waters and aerated waters 260,3 HST Liqueurs and cordials 225,4 HST Beer made from malt 208,4 HST Other fermented beverages 208,0 HST Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc 125,8 HST Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength 106,8 HST Whiskies 102,9 HST Vodka 98,5 HST Sparkling wine 72,0 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 3.4: Export performance of beverages in 2017: Q2 HS Code Beverages High performers % Changes compared to a year ago HST Vodka 147,3 HST Whiskies 53,3 HST Liqueurs and cordials 44,3 HST Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc. 40,5 HST Vinegar and substitutes for vinegar obtained from acetic acid. 35,5 24

28 HST Beer made from malt. 30,8 HST Gin and Geneva. 25,1 HST Other black tea (fermented) and other partly fermented tea. HST Rum and other spirits 14,6 HST Maté. 9.3 Low performers HST Wine -100,0 HST Other green tea (not fermented) -77,6 HST Green tea (not fermented) in immediate packings of a content. 23,1-39,9 HST Mineral waters and aerated water. -18,7 HST Waters, including mineral waters and aerated waters, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured. -14,5 HST Undenatured ethyl alcohol -7,4 HST Other fermented beverages -7,2 HST Black tea (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of content. HST Sparkling wine 6,9 HST Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 3,9 7,6 Main imported beverage products and the source Figure 3.9 illustrates the share of continents as a source of beverages imports in 2017: Q2. Europe was the largest source of beverages imports, it accounted for 68% share, followed by Africa (17%), while the Americas, Asia and Oceania accounted for 9%, 5% and 1%, respectively, during the period under review. Figure 3.10 shows that during the past five years, Europe, followed by Africa, accounted for a huge share of beverages imports, followed by the Americas and Asia. 25

29 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Among the top trading regions, the European Union (66%) still accounts for the largest share as a source of imports, followed by SACU (Excluding RSA) with 15% and NAFTA (8%). Western Asia and Western Europe Rest played a minor role as a source of imports for beverages; they accounted for 5% altogether (see Figure 3.10). 26

30 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) Figure 3.12 above shows the share of the top ten countries as a source of beverages imports. During 2017: Q2, the United Kingdom accounted a huge share of beverages imports (32,2%), followed by Namibia (15,0%), France (14,8%), Belgium (6,2%), the United States and Austria (4,7%). 27

31 Table 3.5: Main imported beverages in 2017: Q2 HS Code Beverages Total amount (R million) HST Wine 471,9 HST Undenatured ethyl alcohol 25,3 HST Vinegar and substitutes for vinegar 48,2 HST Compound alcoholic preparations of a kind used for the manufacture of beverages HST Whiskies 27,5 HST Apple juice 22,0 HST Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc 16,7 HST Liqueurs and cordials 15,3 HST Pineapple juice 10,2 HST Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength 7,2 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) 29,3 Source: Quantec EasyData (2017) During 2017: Q2: The quarter-to-quarter beverages exports rebounded by 19,4%, following a 21,6% contraction previously. However, the year-on-year beverages exports registered an improved negative growth of 0,8% from a 1,0% contraction in the previous quarter. On the other hand, the quarter-to-quarter beverages imports registered an improved negative growth of 6,6%, following a 25,2% contraction previously, while it contracted year-on-year by 28

32 14,5%, following a 12,2% growth in the preceding quarter. As a result, the trade deficit widened to R2,7 billion in the current quarter from R2,0 billion in the previous quarter. 3.6 EMPLOYMENT Source: Quantec EasyData (2017i) Figure 3.14 shows the number of formal employment in the beverages and tobacco products division. The quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year formal employment in the beverages division contracted by 7,3% and 2,3%, respectively, following a previous growth of 1,7% and 0,1%. As a result, the beverages division shed jobs in 2017: Q2 as compared to 755 jobs created in the previous quarter. 3.7 OUTLOOK Table 3.6: Net balance of BER manufacturing survey: Beverages 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3* Domestic sales volumes Export sales volumes Production volumes Domestic order volumes received Export order volumes received General business conditions

33 2016: Q4 2017: Q1 2017: Q2 2017: Q3* Number of factory workers Fixed investment Business confidence Expected volume of goods imported in 12 months time Expected volume of goods exported in 12 months time Expected real investment in machinery and equipment in 12 months time Expected business conditions in 12 months time *Expected Source: BER (2017) The survey of the beverages division by BER shows that the year-on-year outlook for 2017: Q3 is negative for many variables, except for domestic sales volumes and production volumes. 4. CONCLUSION The global economy is projected to increase from 3,2% in 2016 to 3,6% in In the emerging markets and developing economies the growth is forecast to increase strongly from 4,3% in 2016 to 4,6% in This upward growth is in relation to the stronger projected activity in China and in the emerging Europe for 2017 and The South African GDP rebounded in 2017: Q2, advancing at an annualised rate of 2,5% after successive quarters of contraction, this reflect turnaround in the real output of primary and secondary quarter. During this period, Africa contributed a huge percentage share in terms of food exports destination by continents, followed by Asia and Europe, while Americas and Oceania their contribution was minimal. In terms of sources of food imports share by continents, Asia was the main source of food imports, followed by Europe, Africa and the Americas, while Oceania s share was minimal. When it comes to beverages, Africa and Europe accounted for a huge share of beverages exports destination during the period, followed by Americas, Asia and Oceania which accounted a minimum share by continents. In terms of beverages exports share, Europe accounted for a huge share as a source of imports by continents, more than half of all beverages imports were from Europe, followed by Africa and Americas, Asia and Oceania contributed a minimum share. During the quarter under review, the seasonally adjusted physical volume of production for the food and beverages industry increased modestly by 3,2% quarter-to-quarter, as compared to a growth of 0,9% in the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted value of sales 30

34 of food and beverages rebounded during the quarter but moderated year-on-year. As a result of the growth in both volumes of production and value of sale in the food and beverages industry, the trade deficit in the food and beverages industry narrowed to R25,9 million from R3 048,3 million registered in the previous quarter. The employment in the food, beverages and tobacco products division contracted by 1,4% quarter-to-quarter following 0,9% growth in the previous quarter. However, it increased marginally by 2,8% year-on-year following a 1,7% growth recorded previously. This has led to jobs being shed in the current quarter as compared to jobs created previously. 31

35 5. REFERENCES BER (2017), Manufacturing Survey. Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch. Quantec EasyData (2017), RSA International Trade. Accessed in December Statistics SA (2017a), Consumer Price Index, various issues. Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017b), Producer Price Index, various issues. Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017c), Export and Import Unit Value Indices, various issues. Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017d), Manufacturing: Production and Sales, various issues. Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017e), Manufacturing: Utilisation of Production Capacity by Large Enterprises. Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017f), Wholesale Trade Sales, various issues, Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017g), Retail Trade Sales, various issues, Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017h), Food and Beverages, various issues, Statistics South Africa. Statistics SA (2017i), Quarterly Employment Statistics, various issues. Statistics South Africa. Reserve Bank (2017), Quarterly Bulletin, September 2017, South African Reserve Bank. 32

36 NOTES:

37 34

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