MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

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1 E MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT July 2011 Downward corrections to coffee prices recorded in June continued during July 2011, as the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price fell to US cents/lb compared to in June, a drop of 2.4%. Despite this fall, price levels continue to be considerably higher than those recorded in The downward correction was far more marked in the case of Robustas with the average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions on the London futures market falling by 6.5% in relation to the level in June. Price volatility eased slightly in the case of Arabica prices during July. The value of the United States dollar depreciated in relation to the currencies of a number of exporting countries during July 2011, notably the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso and the Indonesian rupiah, accentuating the impact of downward price corrections. World production in crop year 2010/11, which is expected to be around million bags, remains the highest level ever recorded. For crop year 2011/12, preliminary estimates indicate total production of around 130 million bags. It should be noted that crop year 2011/12 is an off year in the biennial cycle characterising Arabica production in Brazil. Exports by all exporting countries during June 2011 totalled 8.8 million bags compared to 8 million bags in June The cumulative total for exports in the first nine months of coffee year 2010/11 (October 2010 to June 2011) was 80.7 million bags compared to 69.7 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2009/10, an increase of 15.9%. This level of exports during the first nine months of coffee year 2010/11 is the highest ever recorded. A brief analysis of exports by selected exporting countries is included in this report.

2 2 Monthly Coffee Market Report July 2011 Graph 1: ICO composite indicator prices Daily: 1 July 2010 to 12 August US cents/lb Price movements Coffee prices fell back further during July. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price was US cents/lb compared to in June, a drop of 2.4% (Table 1). Graphs 1 and 2 show ICO daily composite indicator and group indicator prices since 1 July The fall in Arabica prices was less marked than in the case of Robustas. Prices of Colombian Milds and Other Milds went down by 1% and 2.5% respectively, while those of Brazilian Naturals decreased by 2%. Prices of Robustas fell by 4.4% compared to their level in June. Differentials between prices of Colombian Milds and the other groups of coffee widened further (Table 2). This widening in the differentials was more marked in the case of Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals (Graph 3). Graph 2: Group indicator prices Daily: 1 July 2010 to 12 August US cents/lb Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas

3 Monthly Coffee Market Report July Table 1: ICO indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb) July 2011 ICO Composite Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas New York* London* Monthly averages 2010 July August September October November December January February March April May June July Annual averages % change between Jul 11 and Jun % change between Jul 11 and Jul % change between Jul 11 and 2010 average Volatility (%) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Variation between Jul 11 and Jun *Average of the 2 nd and 3rd positions 0.9

4 4 Monthly Coffee Market Report July 2011 Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb) Colombian Milds Colombian Milds Colombian Milds Colombian Other Milds Other Milds Milds Brazilian New York* Naturals Other Milds Brazilian Robustas New York* Brazilian Robustas Robustas London* Naturals Naturals Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul % change between Jul 11 and Jun *Average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions Graph 3: Differential between prices of Colombian Milds and the other three coffee groups June 2009 to July 2011 US cents/lb Colombian Milds Other Milds Colombian Milds Brazilian Naturals Colombian Milds Robustas

5 Monthly Coffee Market Report July Table 3: Production in selected exporting countries Crop year commencing % change TOTAL Africa Cameroon Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Others Arabicas Robustas Asia & Oceania India Indonesia Papua New Guinea Thailand Vietnam Others Arabicas Robustas Mexico & Central America Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Others Arabicas Robustas South America Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Others Arabicas Robustas TOTAL Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas The exchange rate between the US dollar and the currencies of some exporting countries, namely the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso and the Indonesian rupiah, fell to lower levels in July compared to June. Graphs 4, 5 and 6 show weekly variations in the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso and the Indonesian rupiah over the last two years. Graph 4: Exchange rate: Brazilian real and US dollar Brazilian Real/US Dollar Graph 5: Exchange rate: Colombian peso and US dollar Colombian Peso/US Dollar Graph 6: Exchange rate: Indonesian rupiah and US dollar Arabicas Robustas TOTAL Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas In thousand bags Indonesian Rupiah/US Dollar

6 6 Monthly Coffee Market Report July 2011 Market fundamentals Total production in crop year 2010/11 is million bags, representing an increase of 8.2% in relation to the level of million bags in the previous crop year (Table 3). The initial estimate of production in crop year 2011/12 is around 130 million bags. This crop year coincides with lower production in Brazil in accordance with the biennial cycle characterising Arabica production. The fall was relatively slight in comparison with previous off years. Frosts were recently reported in Brazilian coffee growing areas, but preliminary reports suggest that any damage to next year s crop will be minor. October to June exports in selected exporting countries The total volume exported in the first nine months of coffee year 2010/11 was 80.7 million bags compared to 69.7 million bags for the same period in the previous coffee year, an increase of 15.9%. This is the highest level ever recorded for the first nine months of the coffee year. The Annex shows total exports in the first nine months of coffee years 2001/02 to 2010/11. With the exception of Colombian Milds, record export levels were recorded by all groups of coffee in 2010/11. The Colombian Milds group was unable to achieve this record level of exports given reduced production in Colombia during the last three years. Arabica exports totalled 52.5 million bags while Robusta exports totalled 28.2 million bags. Both types of coffee achieved record export levels. The situation was slightly different in the case of performance by region. During the course of the last ten coffee years the highest level of exports for Africa was recorded in the first nine months of coffee year 2002/03, when they reached 9.2 million bags, whereas they totalled only 8.2 million bags in 2010/11. Ethiopia exported 2.4 million bags during this period, representing the highest level ever recorded. Exports by Côte d Ivoire have declined from the level of 2.4 million bags recorded in 2001/02. The highest level of exports by Uganda was 2.3 million bags in the first nine months of coffee year 2007/08. In Asia & Oceania, the highest level of exports was 23.8 million bags for the first nine months of coffee year 2010/11. This level of exports was mainly due to the export performance of India, which exported a volume of 4.9 million bags, an increase of 71% compared to the same period in 2009/10. Indonesia and Vietnam recorded their biggest export volumes in 2009/10 (4.8 million bags) and 2006/07 (14.8 million bags) respectively. In Mexico & Central America the highest export level was recorded in 2010/11, at 12.5 million bags against 11.3 million bags in 2007/08. Only Honduras and El Salvador achieved their highest export levels. Costa Rica and Mexico were unable to repeat their export levels of coffee year 2001/02, which were 1.5 million bags and 2.3 million bags respectively. As for Guatemala, the level of 3.1 million bags reached in 2002/03 remains the highest. In South America the record volume of exports was 36.3 million bags in 2010/11. During this period, Brazil exported 26.4 million bags, the highest level ever recorded. The strongest performance by Colombia was recorded in coffee year 2007/08 for an export volume of 9.1 million bags; this was followed by a decline in export levels attributable to lower production in recent years. Graph 7 shows total exports during the first nine months of the coffee year from 2001/02 to 2010/11. Table 4 shows total exports of all forms of coffee during the first nine months of the last two coffee years. Graph 7: Total exports during the first nine months of the coffee year Thousand bags

7 Monthly Coffee Market Report July Table 4: Total exports of all forms of coffee (October to June 2009/10 and 2010/11) 2009/ /11 % change TOTAL Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas Angola Benin 0 0 Bolivia Brazil Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of 0 0 Costa Rica Côte d'ivoire Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Jamaica Kenya Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mexico Nicaragua Nigeria Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Rwanda Sierra Leone Tanzania Thailand Timor Leste Togo Uganda Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Other exporting countries 1/ In thousand bags / Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, Lao (PDR), Nepal, Sri Lanka and Trinidad and Tobago Official Brazilian production of 48.1 million bags in 2010/11, and the high levels of exports during the year, indicate that opening stocks in Brazil for crop year 2011/12 have dropped to 6.2 million bags. In view of the intense export activity, it is likely that there will be a similar reduction in many other exporting countries. World consumption during the last three calendar years (2008 to 2010) is shown in Table 5. Consumption is estimated at 134 million bags in calendar year 2010 compared to million bags in 2009, an increase of 2.4%. Domestic consumption in exporting countries was estimated at 40.4 million bags in 2010, representing 30% of world consumption. Consumption in importing countries totalled 93.6 million bags. The buoyancy of world consumption is a determining factor in the maintenance of a balance between supply and demand. As a result of the firmness of green coffee prices in the first quarter of 2011, retail prices have increased in many importing countries (Table 6). Table 5: World consumption (Calendar years 2008 to 2010) Difference % change WORLD TOTAL Exporting countries Brazil Indonesia Ethiopia Mexico Venezuela, B.R Vietnam India Colombia Philippines Others Importing countries European Union Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Poland Netherlands Sweden Finland Others Japan Norway Switzerland Tunisia Turkey USA Other importing countries Russian Federation Canada Algeria Korea, Rep. Of Ukraine Australia In thousand bags

8 8 Monthly Coffee Market Report July 2011 Table 6: Retail prices of roasted coffee in selected importing countries Country Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 % change Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Japan Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom USA In US cents/lb 30.2 In conclusion, it should be noted that coffee prices continue to be vulnerable to downward corrections, as the frost season in Brazil nears its end, even though the levels recorded are still far higher than in recent years. Nevertheless, the depreciation of the US dollar in relation to the currencies of some exporting countries is likely to accentuate the impact on export earnings. Although retail prices have increased in many importing countries, consumption remains buoyant, encouraging strong export performance in most exporting countries.

9 ANNEX Total exports during the first nine months of the coffee year (2001/02 to 2010/11) October to June 2001/ / / / / / / / / /11 TOTAL Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas Africa Cameroon Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Others Asia & Oceania India Indonesia Papua New Guinea Thailand Vietnam Others Mexico & Central America Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Others South America Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Others In thousand bags International Coffee Organization Monthly Coffee Market Report July 2011

10 Futures Markets: COFFEE MARKET NEWS 25 th to the 29 th July 2011 Arabica: At the beginning of the week the market rallied but by Wednesday prices had moved lower and continued to decrease until Friday when the market hit a new six month low going below the Robusta: The market rallied strongly on speculation and roaster buying on Tuesday. However, it continued to go back to the low by the end of the week. There was some industry buying around but not enough to avoid substantial dips. Currency: The US dollar index was choppy in the week but finished very weak on Friday due to the US debt concerns. This sharp fall should have had a positive impact on commodities but the effect was mixed and uncertain. The Euro is around the same level as last week but GDP gained some support by the end of the week. Futures and Currency close levels: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday NY Sept-11 c/lb Lon Sept 11 $/t /$ Physical Markets Brazil: The temperatures are slightly down with dry weather and no concerns about frost risk. The government interfered on currency derivatives to prevent exchange rate from getting worse. A strong Real is good thing against inflation, but Brazilian commodities lose competitive value on the market. Colombia: The sunny weather has boosted flowering and improved the prospects of a better than expected harvest in the first half of next year, said the producers. Kenya: With overseas demand not quite supporting any action on sales, it is good to read that next week 14,000 bags will be on sale at the auction. Tanzania: The harvest is a little ahead in the north, with the southern coffee areas mixed. The new crop business is not really happening; although at Asian enquiries have started coming in. The auction is still expected to start on 2nd half of August. Ethiopia: The country earned a record $841.6 million from the export of nearly 200,000 tonnes of coffees in 201/11, according the trade data reported. Papa New Guinea: Coffee supplies are slowing down due to wet weather and lower prices. However, stocks at the mills were still high and factories are running at maximum capacity. India: The Monsoon showers continued to nourish the coffee plants. The crop estimates have been issued for 10/11 with 302,000 metric tonnes; split between 94,104 metric tonnes of Arabica and 207,860 metric tonnes of Robusta. The 2011/12 crop is expected to reach 322,250 metric tonnes, which is a 7% increase. Vietnam: The weather conditions are still good and exporters are offering the new crop. Continued /

11 Other news PNG: ICE: ICO: COFFEE MARKET NEWS 25 th to the 29 th July 2011 Other: Starbucks has raised its fiscal year forecast above analysts' estimates after its relatively wellheeled customers visited stores more often and shook off price increases in the latest quarter, said Reuters. Information provided courtesy of D.R. Wakefield

12 Futures Markets: COFFEE MARKET NEWS 18 th to the 22 nd July 2011 Arabica: The market was in a bearish trend for the 1 st time in 6 weeks. Prices have moved below technical averages and pushed lower despite the weakness of the US dollar; therefore physical prices have improved as a result. Robusta: The market collapsed and continued to go down during the week. With selling sparse the outright turnover was relatively low. It seemed that the short term specs have been caught slightly short and with the absence of fund selling. Currency: The US dollar eased back against the Euro and other currencies. The weakness of US Dollar has pushed up the differentials and the Euro weakness highlighting the still prominent issues with Greece. Futures and Currency close levels: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday NY Sept-11 c/lb Lon Sept-11 $/t /$ Physical Markets Brazil: The weather is expected to stay warm until the end of July. Colombia: The flow of coffee is still poor; however there is buyer interest. A dry and hot summer is needed from now on in order to have a proper flowering. Some people claim that the main crop in some regions of the country will start earlier. Bear in mind that growers running out of cash start seeing the crop coming early. Nicaragua: The upcoming crop is expected to rise 23% as growers invest profits from high prices at the beginning of the year into farm improvements. Kenya: Around 14,000 bags were sold in sale 23. The next auction shows about 18,000 bags will be available for sale. Overseas demand is small, and current auction level is high as the volumes fall. Uganda: Exports have increased by 20% in July compared to the previous year. The Bugisu harvest started around Elgon Mountain with good volumes. The southern/western crop is supposed to have its peak at this time, although its flow has slowed considerably. Ethiopia: The offered quantity has continually decreased and there is no Ethiopia Limu offered. Papa New Guinea: In terms of weather conditions the Highland has seen the beginning of the dry season with lots of coffee being delivered to the mills for continuous processing at maximum capacity. Indonesia: The prices are still increasing and buyers are sensitive about news from origin. Exports could fall more than 30% in 2011 as constraints in supply lead to tight stocks at the end of the year. Vietnam: The weather is still favourable with some reports about the new crop coffee being harvested already. Exporters are keeping busy with fulfilling their standing obligations. Coffee exports in July dropped by 38.2% from the same month last year. Continued /

13 COFFEE MARKET NEWS 18 th to the 22 nd July 2011 Physical Markets (Continued) India: A lot of rains as the monsoon is moving into the western and south interior parts of Karnataka. Other news GCA: Stocks have now risen for the 7th consecutive month totaling 693,852 bags. The stocks climbed by over 133,000 bags in June 11 to 4,559,795 bags, the highest level since May PNG: ICE: ICO: Other: European coffee Stock (in Major Ports: Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Geneva, Le Havre) have risen by 11.2 % during May 2011, according to the figures issued by the European Coffee Federation. Information provided courtesy of D.R. Wakefield

14 Futures Markets: COFFEE MARKET NEWS 11 th to the 15 th July 2011 Arabica: The market has been very choppy during the week, navigating between 255 to 265 cents in NY for some time. Origins have showed some selling interest once the market traded nearer the higher portion of the boundary. Funds have also been trading on a short term basis and are not very confident in keeping long positions for a lengthy period at current levels. Robusta: It was a volatile market during the week with a sharp drop on Tuesday due to the Eurozone Crisis. Currency: The debt worries in the Eurozone drove investors into the safer dollar which strengthened as the euro weakened Futures and Currency close levels: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday NY Jul-11 c/lb Lon Jul-11 $/t /$ Physical Markets Brazil: The increasing local consumption due to a strong economy and high demand from abroad, leaves a very tight situation for the first semester in The present incoming crop is estimated to be already 55 % harvested (Robusta: 80-85% - 3 weeks delayed, and Arabica: 45%- 1 week earlier) and of a very good quality. The weather pattern has left the country relieved as the frost has not been as hard as forecast. At this point there are no expectations of further menacing cold fronts for the week, temperatures are steady and dry weather. Colombia: The Growers Federation has announced that the production in June dipped to 41,000 bags whilst exports fell 12% to 572,000 bags. Summer is in full swing and after the improving weather situation farmers were facing new rains showers creating fear of the 2012 flowering mid crop. Guatemala: Very little activity. Rainy weather conditions were helpful for the development of the new crop. Mexico: Exports jumped more than 50% in June compared with the same period last year. However, overall shipments for the harvest have slipped so far. The country is expected a slightly smaller crop this year after plants were damaged by frost in some states. Nicaragua: Exports fell by 47% in June compared to the same period last year, the harvest season is down by more than 4% compared to last year. Kenya: Over 22,000 bags of decent fly crop qualities have been sold in Tuesday s Auction. Grade AA are in special demand. The auction program will be weekly from now on with about 14,000 bags available next week. Ethiopia: Exporters are keen to offer the balance of some washed qualities. European spot sundried prices were even with Fob Djibouti and there is a daily decline in quantities. Papa New Guinea: Harvesting has slowed down in the highlands regions due to the wet weather through the country. For the same reason roads are in poor condition allowing only limited tonnage per load from Mount Hagen and Goroka. Continued /

15 COFFEE MARKET NEWS 11 th to the 15 th July 2011 Physical Markets (Continued) India: There is small activity in unwashed and washed Arabica. India Coffee exports have increased by % during Jan to June 2011 to 220,000 tonnes against 152,000 tonnes in the same period last year. Indonesia: Harvesting in most parts of the country is nearly finished. Exporters are also working hard to fulfill their old commitments. Vietnam: Internal prices were still at a very high level. The good weather could give a record output if it continues and Exporters have delayed loading of around 40,000 tonnes due to thin domestic stocks and a jump in local market prices beyond export levels. Other news CGA: The US green Coffee stock reached 4,559,795 bags by the end of June, which is an increase of 133,138 bags from the previous month. ICE: World coffee production in the current 2010/11 reached 133,031 million bags, a rise of 8.32% from the previous season. ICO: Other: Information provided courtesy of D.R. Wakefield

16 Futures Markets: COFFEE MARKET NEWS 4 th to the 8 th July 2011 Arabica: After the market closed on Monday; NY rallied to 5.95 cents higher on Tuesday in line with the CRB. Wednesday, brought reports of a possible light frost in Minas Gerais, an element of nervous with short covering was seen. On Thursday, the market rose with the help of ECB rate and crude oil price rises. By Friday the level went down especially due to disappointing US Job data. NY had its usual wide range session of up down and sideways. Robusta: London continued on the down side as the euro weakened. There was small volume traded and little interest was a sign of volatility. Currency: Sterling and Euro weaken against a more resilient dollar. Futures and Currency close levels: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday NY Sept-11 c/lb closed Lon Sept-11 $/t /$ Physical Markets Brazil: Temperatures were higher with no rains and no frost warnings. June total exports were 2,652,268 bags according to Cecafe. Colombia: Farmers were positive due to the improved weather situation indicating a good and sound flowering of the Mitica, which did not occur for the last two years. Guatemala: Exports in June were about 436, kg bags, an increase by 10 % compared to the same period last year. Costa Rica: According to Icafe, the first estimate of the production for the 2011/12 crop is 2,133,406 bags (46kgs), which is an increase by around 3%. Production has increased in all areas expect in the West valley where the output is estimated lower for the coming crop. Kenya: The early crop will be larger than the late crop. Harvesting of the two crops is likely to overlap mainly due to erratic rainfall and stress patterns. Field observation indicates coffee berries at various stages. The late crop is flowering in the Rift Valley (main producing areas such as Central and Eastern). Overall in 2011 calendar year, production is estimated to reach 56,000 tonnes comprising of 66% early crop and 34 % late crop. Tanzania: Harvesting is underway; however the auction will not start until mid-august. Uganda: June exports rose by 58% compared to the same period last year. The total exported in June was 370,924 bags, which surpassed the estimated forecast. Revenues for the month increased sharply to $53m because of higher exports and elevated market prices. Indonesia: Estimates for the loss in production in Indonesia continued to circulate and according to the Indonesia coffee and cocoa research Institute the crop for 2011 could fall by 30% to around 400,000 tonnes. The institute also claimed that rainfall last year impacted on pollination and therefore production. However, with the dry season returning to Indonesia, the production should be able to regain normal level by the next crop. Continued /

17 COFFEE MARKET NEWS 4 th to the 8 th July 2011 Physical Markets (Continued) Papa New Guinea: There were continuous rains over the last 3 weeks; however production is not affected due to sufficient stock in shipper s facilities. High prices have motivated farmers to pick every single cherry; which in turn has led to relaxed exporters as the coffee flow is steady and voluminous. Vietnam: According to traders in Vietnam, the flood of stocks shipped to Europe in April and May has left a limited amount of stock in the country, most of which is already committed to forward contracts. As a result, buyers are required to find stocks to replenish the contracts and they have to pay inflated differentials or in some cases they may need to source them through European Stocks. Other news PNG: No report ICE: No report ICO: No report Other: No report Information provided courtesy of D.R. Wakefield

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