Recent Trends in Certified Organic Tree Fruit

Transcription

1 Recent Trends in Certified Organic Tree Fruit Washington State 212 Data as of Dec.15, 212 Document date: April 3, 213 Elizabeth Kirby and David Granatstein WSU-Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources In cooperation with Washington State Department of Agriculture Organic Food Program and Oregon Tilth Certified Organic

2 Organic Food Sales (Bil $) Consumer Demand Growth of US Organic Food Sales % 4.2 % of all food sales Organic food sales increased 9.4% in 211 Fruits and vegetables = 39.7% of organic food sales and 12% of all national produce sales in 21. Source: OTA, Nutrition Business Journal

3 Organic Tree Fruit Acres Washington State ARS Photo --- Certified acres --- % Change --- Transition acres Apple 15,735 14,296 13,655-13% 4, ,64 Pear 1,964 1,917 1,9-3% Cherry 2,437 1,826 1,792-26% Apricot % Peach & Nectarine 1,238 1,146 1,15-11% Plum & Prune % Mixed stone Total 21,799 19,59 18,851-14% 6, ,166 Tree fruit has a 2% share of all organic acreage in Washington State Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

4 US Organic Apple Area (acres, estimated) State WA 4,228 6,54 7,3 6,721 8,18 12,936 15,735 14,296 13,655 CA 4,423 4,853 4,45 3,42 3,9 3,393 3,45 3,334 AZ 1,795 1, * CO OR Other West n/a West total 11,58 14,77 12,554 11,396 13,196 17,584 >2, >18,932 Midwest NY & NE S & SE US Total 12,38 15,44 13,21 12,54 14,67 18,465 >21, >19,824 *211 red values from USDA-NASS COPS 211 >95 % in arid west Combined data sets from WSU-CSANR,USDA-ERS, USDA-NASS; Other West states include ID, MT, NM, NV, UT

5 Estimated U.S. Organic Apple Trend 25, West = >95% of area Acres 2, 15, 1, West* Washington State US Total* 19,824 18,932 13,655 5, East/Midwest* CA 3, Based on combined data from WSDA, USDA-ERS, CDFA, AZ Apple Growers Assoc., QAI, OTCO, and USDA-NASS. * Used same data for 28 and 29 except for WA, OR and CA. 211 values: CA (CDFA); WA (combined certifiers); East/Midwest and Other West (211 COPS); US (CDFA, WA combined certifier, other states from COPS).

6 Photo: F. Peryea Acres 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Alar $ Drop Organic Apple Area Washington State MD $ Drop Retail Chains Certified apple Transition apple 13,655 ac = 8% of WA apple bearing acreage (based on 211 WA-NASS estimate of 167,489 acres) $ Drop Some historical events that have influenced organic apple production include the Alar incident, price volatility ($ Drop), the introduction of mating disruption (MD) for codling moth control, and market entry by national chain supermarkets (Retail chains). 15,735 13,655 Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

7 WA Fuji; ARS Photo Organic Apple Variety Acres Washington 212 Fuji Gala Red Delicious Granny Smith Honeycrisp Golden Types Cripps Pink Braeburn Cameo Pinova Other & NS Certified Organic Transition Acres Fuji 25%, Gala 24% of all certified apple acres 212 WSDA data; NS includes apples not reported by variety

8 Organic Varieties Washington State Acres Trend Photo: B. Barritt Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified GALA Transition 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified FUJI Transition Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition RED DELICIOUS Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

9 Organic Varieties Washington State Acres Trend Photo: ARS Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition GRANNY SMITH 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition HONEYCRISP Acres 4, 3, 2, 1, Certified Transition CRIPPS PINK Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

10 Organic Specialty Apples Washington State Over 1 varieties of organic apples grown in WA, from small to larger quantities. 5-1 ac Ambrosia, Jonagold 11-5 ac Cortland, Empire, Ginger Gold, Jazz, Lady Alice, McIntosh, Opal, Pacific Rose, Rosa Lynn <1 ac Envy, Minneiska (SweeTango ), Sonya, Tsugaru, Zestar! WA Apple Commission Varieties show on WSDA producer list: WSDA data

11 Organic Apple Sales Volume and Price Trends - WA Boxes *1 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Additional organic apples are sold as conventional $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ $/Box FOB Priced Boxes Shipped Boxes US$ per Box Annual prices are typically reported for a proportion of total boxes shipped rather than total volume of boxes shipped. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; organic season average FOB history; priced boxes all grades,sizes, storage.

12 Organic Share of Apple Shipments Washington State 1 Organic % of all apples shipped /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 Data Sources: Washington Growers Clearing House and Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association

13 Total Shipped Organic Volume by year and variety, Washington State 2,5 Boxes *1 2, 1,5 1, 2,125 Season totals 23/4 to 211/12 1, Gala Fuji Red Delicious Granny Smith 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/ Over 2 million boxes of organic Gala sold for 211 crop ARS Photo Data Sources: Washington Growers Clearing House & Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association.

14 Total Shipped Organic Volume by year and variety, Washington State 2,5 2, Season totals 23/4 to 211/12 Boxes *1 1,5 1, Golden Delicious Cripps Pink Honeycrisp 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 ARS Photo Data Sources: Washington Growers Clearing House & Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association.

15 Price Trends Washington Apples $/SEB $4 $3 $2 Gala Organic 11/15/12 $/SEB $4 $3 $2 Fuji 11/15/12 $1 Conventional $1 $ $ Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug. SEB=standard equivalent box of 4 lb.

16 Price Trends Washington Apples Photo: B. Barritt Red Delicious Golden Delicious $4 $3 Organic 11/15/12 $4 $3 11/15/12 $/SEB $2 $/SEB $2 $1 Conventional $1 $ $ NY Apple Assoc. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

17 Price Trends Washington Apples $/SEB $4 $3 $2 Granny Smith Organic 11/15/12 $/SEB $4 $3 $2 Cripps Pink WA Apple Comm. 11/15/12 $1 Conventional $1 $ $ Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes. Annual data points represent season averages: season runs approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

18 Average Monthly WA Apple Prices : 21/11 Market Year Example $6 $5 GALA $6 $5 FUJI $/Box FOB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Organic Price Conventional Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $/Box FOB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $6 $5 REDS $/Box FOB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes.

19 $/Box FOB $/Box FOB $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Ave. Monthly WA Organic Prices & Storage Volume: 21/11 Market Year Example GALA Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul REDS 2, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Boxes*1 Boxes*1 $/Box FOB $/Box FOB $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 FUJI Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul HONEYCRISP (limited price data) 2, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Boxes*1 Boxes*1 $ $ Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan Mar May Jul Organic Storage Organic Price Organic Storage Organic Price Data Sources: WGCHA& WVTA; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes.

20 Monthly Price Range for WA Organic Apples: 21/11 Market Year Example $7 $7 $/Box FOB $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 GALA $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 FUJI $1 $1 $ $7 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $ $7 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $/Box FOB $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ REDS Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ HONEYCRISP (limited price data) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Low High Wtd. Average Low High Wtd. Average Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes.

21 Conventional Organic $ per SEB* /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 Gala (1.19).62 (.24) 3.74 ( 8.19) Fuji (6.6) 4.8 (2.24) 4.64 (13.51) 3.68 (1.44) 4.48 Reds (4.86) (7.62) 1.1 (1.9) 4.76 Goldens (7.12) 4.6 (.21) 3.16 (12.69) 4.78 (.96) 3.97 Cripps Pink (6.99) (14.4) 5.4 (.19) 2.45 All apples average Recent Price Fluctuation Washington State Apples (4.47) (1.27) 2.85 (1.39) 4.77 * Change in price from previous year for Standard Equivalent Box of 4 lb Organic growers are offering newer apple varieties, such as the spicy-sweet Pinova, to attract shoppers' attention in store bins. Judith Blake / The Seattle Times 24 /Photo: Betty Udesen Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB season averages, all storage, grades, sizes

22 Recent Organic Apple Prices Washington State $7 $6 $5 $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Red Delicious Golden Delicious Granny Smith Fuji Gala Honeycrisp 211/12 to 11/15/11 to 11/15/12 11/1-11/15/12 SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, grades, sizes

23 $/Box Percent $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Organic Premiums Washington Apples Gala Red Del Fuji Gala Red Del Fuji Photo: B. Barritt Premiums are expressed as the price difference between organic and conventional, as $ per box, or as a % Data: Washington Growers Clearing House Annual data points represent season averages: season runs approx. Sept 1 to end of Aug.

24 Modeled Prices of WA Organic Apples with Increasing Sales Volume Box Price, All Apples Organic Shipments as % of All WA Apple Shipments 6% 8% 1% 12% Organic Price ($/box FOB) $2. $ $ $ $ $17. $ $ 2.78 $ $ $14. $ $ $ $ Source: D. O Rourke, /12 Season; Actual Organic Share of Sales Volume = 6.2% All Apples Organic Apples Avg. Box Price (FOB) $22.71 $29.88 Refer to slide 12 for trend of actual organic apple share of all WA apple sales volume Data: Washington Growers Clearing House

25 County Distribution of WA Organic Tree Fruit 212 7, 6, Certified Acres 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Apple Pear Cherry Oth&NS Stone Combined certifiers data; Photo by C. Donovan

26 County Organic Apple Acres Washington State 7, 6, Certified Acres 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Grant Douglas Okanogan Yakima Walla Walla Franklin Adams Chelan Benton County values are estimates Combined certifiers data

27 Organic Pear Acreage Washington State 2,5 2, 2,33 1,9 Acres 1,5 1, Certified pear Transition pear 212 = 8.6% of total WA pear acreage (based on 211 WA-NASS estimate of 22,8 pear acres) Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

28 Organic Pear Acres by Variety Washington 212 Other & NS 5% Asian 2% Bosc 17% Red Types 1% Bartlett 33% ARS Photo D'Anjou 33% WSDA data; NS = not specified

29 Organic Pear Variety Trend Washington State 1 8 D'Anjou Bartlett Bosc Red types Other or NS 6 Acres Photo: Agyle Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

30 Organic Specialty Pears Washington State Over 25 varieties of organic pears and Asian pears grown in WA, from small to larger quantities. >25 ac Concorde, Comice, Tosca Acreage unknown - Belle Pickard, Flemish Beauty, Forelle, Maxine, Moonglow, Seckel Varieties show on WSDA producer list: WSDA data

31 Organic Pear Sales Volume and Price Trends SEB * Organic share of WA pears shipped = 6.2% /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 Priced Boxes Total Shipped Boxes US$ per Box $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ $/SEB FOB SEB = Standard Equivalent Box of 44 lb. Data Sources: WGCHA & WVTA. Annual organic prices are typically reported for only a proportion of total shipped volume.

32 $5 Bartlett Price Trends Washington Pears $5 D Anjou $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 Organic Conventional $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $ $5 Bosc $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Bosc photo: US Pear SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

33 Price Trends Washington Pears $5 Red Bartlett $5 Red D Anjou $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 Organic Conventional $/SEB $4 $3 $2 $1 $ $ SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

34 $2 Organic Premiums Washington Pears Hedrich, 1921 $/SEB $15 $1 $5 Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc Percent $ 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc SEB = Standard Equivalent Box; Data: Washington Growers Clearing House. Annual data points represent FOB season price averages.

35 Recent Organic Pear Prices Washington State $/SEB $5 $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Bartlett Red Bartlett D'Anjou Red D'Anjou Bosc 211/12 to 11/15/11 to 11/15/12 11/1-11/15/12 SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. Data: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB averages, all storage, organic grades and sizes.

36 Organic Cherry Acreage Washington State 2,5 2, Certified cherry Transition cherry 2,437 1,792 Acres 1,5 1, = 4.7% of total WA cherry area (based on 21 WA-NASS estimate of 38,115 acres) Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

37 Organic Cherry Variety Acres Washington State 212 Skeena 8% Rainier 8% Sweetheart 5% Oth Sweet 3% Variety NS 27% Other Dark Sweet 1% Tart 1% Chelan 12% Bing 17% 27% of cherries not reported by variety in 212 compared to 57% in WSDA data; NS = not specified

38 Photo: OMAFRA $/SEB $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Cherry Price Trends Washington State ALL Organic BING Organic ALL Conventional SEB = Standard Equivalent Box of 18 lb. Data: WGCHA; Conventional prices are from season FOB avg. price histories; may include organic Organic prices are from season FOB histories, all grades and sizes.

39 ARS photo gallery Washington State Other Stone Fruit Trend ARS Photo Certified acres Plum/Prune Apricot Nectarine Peach Transition acres Combined certifiers data; 212 WSDA data

40 Export Value of U.S. Organic Foods 5 45 Export Value (million $) Other Leaf lettuce Grapes Pear Cherry Apple Canada, Mexico are main markets Apple exports tripled, cherry exports dropped Source: USDA-FAS GATS

41 Organic Apple and Pear Exports Washington State Boxes Exported 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 27/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 211/12 WA Apple WA Pear Data source: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association

42 Washington Organic Apple Top Export Destinations 5, Boxes Exported 4, 3, 2, 1, 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Canada EU Asia/S. Pac Mexico MidEast Caribbean, S.A., C.A. Data source: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association

43 WA Organic Apple Exports by Variety Boxes Exported 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Other Golden Del Granny Fuji Red Del Gala Data source: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association

44 WA Organic Pear Exports by Variety Boxes Exported 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Other Bosc Bartlett D'Anjou 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 Data source: Wenatchee Valley Traffic Association

45 \ More information on Washington organic tree fruit statistics is available on-line at: Fruit/FruitTreeInventory211.pdf Citation: Kirby, E. and D. Granatstein Recent trends in certified organic tree fruit in Washington State: 212. Organic Trend Series, Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University, Wenatchee, WA.