THIRSTY ASIA A MARKET ANALYSIS. Presentation by Richard Hall Chairman, Zenith International Ltd. AUSDRINKS 21 March 2016, Sydney

Transcription

1 THIRSTY ASIA A MARKET ANALYSIS Presentation by Richard Hall Chairman, Zenith International Ltd AUSDRINKS 21 March 2016, Sydney

2 Contents Global drinks consumption 1-2 Global drinks markets 3-4 Global drinks regions 5-7 Global soft drinks markets 8-11 Global soft drinks regions Asia drinks consumption Asia key countries Global soft drinks challenges, opportunities Global drinks outlook 30-32

3 1 GLOBAL DRINKS CONSUMPTION countries, index 2005= Volume Population

4 2 GLOBAL DRINKS SECTORS countries, 000 million litres 800 Soft 600 Hot Alcohol Milk

5 3 GLOBAL DRINKS GROWTH MARKETS countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years Bottled water +97 Tea +55 Milk Coffee Still drinks Beer Carbonates Iced tea Fruit drinks Spirits

6 4 GLOBAL DRINKS MARKETS countries Others 18% Tea 22% Others 19% Tea 22% Coffee 10% Beer 10% Bottled water 14% Beer 9% Coffee 10% Bottled water 17% Carbonates 13% Milk 13% Carbonates 11% Milk 12% 1,664 billion litres 1,942 billion litres

7 5 GLOBAL DRINKS GROWTH REGIONS countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years Asia Pacific +205 L America Africa M East W Europe N America E Europe

8 6 GLOBAL DRINKS REGIONS countries Others 15% Others Asia Pacific 15% 42% Asia Pacific 46% L America 13% L America 13% W Europe 15% N America 15% W Europe 13% N America 13% 1,664 billion litres 1,942 billion litres

9 7 GLOBAL DRINKS COUNTRIES countries Others 36% China 18% Others 36% China 22% Germany 4% Japan 4% Pakistan 4% Mexico 4% 1,664 billion litres Brazil 6% India 10% USA 14% Germany 3% Japan 3% Pakistan 3% Mexico 4% Brazil 6% 1,942 billion litres India 11% USA 12%

10 8 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS MAIN MARKETS countries, 000 million litres 250 Carbonates 200 Water retail 150 Water bulk Fruit drinks Dilutables Still drinks Iced tea

11 9 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS OTHER MARKETS countries, 000 million litres 25 Juice Nectars Flav milk Sports 10 5 Flav water Energy Iced coffee

12 10 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS GROWTH MARKETS countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years Water - bulk Water - retail Still drinks Carbonates Iced tea Fruit drinks Dilutables Flav milk Nectars Energy Sports

13 11 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS MARKETS countries Others 10% Still drinks 4% Iced tea 4% Fruit drinks 5% Dilutables 5% Water 38% Others Iced tea 10% 5% Still drinks 5% Dilutables 5% Fruit drinks 5% Water 42% Carbonates 34% 635 billion litres 795 billion litres Carbonates 28%

14 12 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS GROWTH REGIONS countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years Asia Pacific +116 L America +21 M East Africa E Europe W Europe N America

15 13 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS REGIONS countries Others 16% Asia Pacific 29% Others 15% Asia Pacific 38% W Europe 16% W Europe 13% L America 17% N America 22% L America 16% N America 18% 635 billion litres 795 billion litres

16 14 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS COUNTRIES countries Others 45% USA 21% Others 40% China 23% China 16% USA 17% Germany 4% Brazil 6% Mexico 8% Germany 4% Indonesia 4% Brazil 5% Mexico 7% 635 billion litres 795 billion litres

17 15 ASIA DRINKS PER PERSON countries, litres per year World - all Asia - all World - soft Asia - soft

18 16 ASIA SOFT DRINKS PER PERSON Litres Australia Japan China Indonesia India

19 17 ASIA SOFT DRINKS MARKET million litres China Indonesai India Japan Philippines

20 18 ASIA SOFT DRINKS COUNTRIES countries Others 17% Australia 4% China 47% Japan 7% Others 11% Australia 2% China 61% India 7% India 8% Indonesia 10% Indonesia 11% Japan 15% N America 18% 113 billion litres 302 billion litres

21 19 THIRSTY CHINA million litres 150 Tea Beer Water - bulk Still drinks Water - retail

22 20 THIRSTY INDIA million litres 150 Tea Milk Water - bulk Water retail Carbonates

23 21 THIRSTY INDONESIA million litres 20 Water bulk Water retail Tea Coffee Iced tea

24 22 THIRSTY JAPAN million litres Tea 10 Coffee 5 Iced tea Water - retail Carbonates

25 23 THIRSTY AUSTRALIA million litres 3 Milk 2 Carbonates Coffee Beer Tea

26 24 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS CHALLENGES - CONSUMERS Question of consumer balance Individual Society Choice Natural Affordable Convenient Calories in Healthy Functional Sustainable Cost Activity out

27 25 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS CHALLENGES - INDUSTRY Question of consumer freedom Permission Regulation Advertising Promotion Claims Choice Convenience Recycling Pricing Restriction Tax Evidence Traffic lights Size control Levies Caps

28 26 KEY CHALLENGE 1 OBESITY How to avoid soft drinks being demonised Reduce excess serving sizes Clear front of pack labelling for all products Improve mid, low and no calorie taste Ensure low sugar outpaces regular Self-regulation on promotion to young Lead balanced public debate Healthier innovation

29 27 KEY CHALLENGE 2 ENVIRONMENT How to neutralise public concern Local where possible Lightweight/rightweight Improve recycling and re use Press governments to act on best practice Develop new materials Promote initiatives Consider environment impact labelling Declare recycled content

30 28 KEY CHALLENGE 3 TRUST How to safeguard popular respect Accept measure of responsibility Lead before being pushed Engage in public debate Only scientific evidence based claims Embrace self-regulation on advertising Set sound targets and beat them

31 29 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS OPPORTUNITIES Natural low calorie sweetening Water based products Tea based products Functional products Craft, local, personalised, premium Technology eg self manufacture, home dispense, online

32 30 GLOBAL DRINKS CONSUMPTION countries, index 2005= Volume Population

33 31 GLOBAL DRINKS GROWTH MARKETS countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years Water - bulk Water - retail Tea Milk Still drinks Coffee Carbonates Iced tea Fruit drinks Beer

34 32 GLOBAL SOFT DRINKS GROWTH COUNTRIES countries, extra 000 million litres over 5 years China Indonesia India Brazil Mexico Vietnam Saudi Arabia Turkey Russia Japan

35 UK SOFT DRINKS TAX ANNOUNCEMENT Effective April 2018 to encourage reformulation. Based on total sugar content at 2 levels. 5g/100ml, expected 0.18 per litre. 8g/100ml, expected 0.24 per litre. Excludes dairy, juice, small producers. Anticipated first year revenue of 520 million. Tax will fund school sports.

36 UK SOFT DRINKS TAX COMMENT Obesity today, yet tax delay of 2 years. Not part of obesity strategy, recently postponed. Declared direct link between sugary drinks and disease. Rates and revenue not substantiated. Tax could double some prices. Yet so many other sugary products excluded. Reformulation will rise up industry agenda. Obesity still needs broader action. Soft drinks tax could prove illusory diversion. More on bevblog.net

37 zenithinternational specialist consultants to the food and drink industries worldwide For more information on this presentation or on any of Zenith s services, please contact: Richard Hall rhall@zenithinternational.com Or telephone Zenith s head office on +44 (0)