146 G: 200 B:80 COMP2 GOLD R: 212 G: 175 B: 55 OTHER R: 195 G: 12 B: 62 HIGHLIGHT ORANGE R: 247 G: 150 B:
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1 Asia Conference March 27 th, 2014
2 CONTENTS Short-term pause in the long-term growth Not the first time Impressive rebound post 2008 crisis Leading to record high comparables Current environment is particularly unfavorable Medium and long-term potential intact H1 impact likely to last through the full 13/14 fiscal year Different dynamics at play market-by-market Better resilience outside China India rally Travel Retail excellence Japan resurgence Thailand re-shuffle Korea adaptation China challenge Ambition intact 2
3 Not the first time Sustained growth over the long-term despite slight drop in 2008 Net Sales Operating Profit 1,000 1, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 INDEX 100: 2002 Pernod Ricard Asia Net Sales & Business Profit 3
4 Impressive rebound post 2008 crisis Business x 2 in 3 years Net Sales Operating Profit X 1.7 X 2 09/10 12/13 09/10 12/13 INDEX 100: 09/10 4
5 Leading to record high comparables in particular in H1 exacerbated by rebuilding of Martell inventories H1 12/13 vs 11/12 Full Year 12/13 vs 11/12 VOLUME 1% 12% VOLUME -1% 10% NET SALES 1 6% 14% NET SALES 1 3% 8% OPERATING PROFIT 1 10% 21% OPERATING PROFIT 1 6% 17% Pernod Ricard International Competitor 1 1.Organic growth: Pernod Ricard: Asia figures only International Competitor 1: Asia Pacific figures 5
6 Current environment is particularly unfavourable Macro economic slowdown FX headwinds GDP ASIA (Billion USD) Oct-2012 Oct-2013 FX vs. Dec 13 vs. Jul 13 INDONESIAN RUPIAH -29% INDIAN RUPEE -10% JAPANESE YEN -12% MALAYSIAN RINGITT -9% A10 A11 A12 F13 F14 F15 F16 F17 Anti-extravaganza and anti-corruption campaigns in China Repeated flow of new measures Source: World Economic Outlook (Oct 2013), IMF, Gross domestic product, current prices in Billion USD 6
7 Medium and long-term potential is intact for Asia Huge reservoir for growth 7 MAC Development All Alcohol 10.5B Premium + Western Style Spirits 100M 9L Cs (4% of W&S) % 19% 79% 1,022 2% 24% 74% 1,070 4% 29% 67% Affluent Middle Others Wines & Spirits 2.8B (Growth +0.2%) Western Style Spirits 421M (15% of W&S) Growth +2.5% CAGR +10% F2017 F2020 Consumption of Wine & Spirits 9,723 8,451 7,155 1% 1% 1% 99% 99% 99% Wine & Spirits Other expend. Unit: 9L case Growth: 2013F vs 2012 % Based on Wines & Spirits Imported Spirits 31M (1% of W&S) Growth +2.5% 12/13 F16/ ,387 47% 53% F2017 Urbanization 3,501 49% 51% F2020 3,577 51% 49% Urban Rural 1. IWSR + Pernod Ricard Market View 2. Western style spirits include imported and local spirits and wines in domestic and DF markets 3. Imported spirits include imported spirits in domestic and DF markets 4. Premium+WSS = WSS>7USD 5. All alcohol include beer, spirits, wine and cider in domestic and DF markets 2013 F2017 Source: IHS Global Insight 2013 (2005 USD Constant FX) MAC: : Millions household income PPP, Affluents > $80K, Middle Class: $20k-80k,Others: <$20k F2020 CONSUMPTION: Billions USD, % annual expenditure of individuals. URBANIZATION: Millions individuals ASIA = China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,Taiwan,Thailand,Vietnam 7
8 H1 impact likely to last through the full fiscal year H1 13/14 vs 12/13 Full Year estimate 13/14 vs 12/13 VOLUME -4% 7% NET SALES 1 OPERATING PROFIT 1-7% -6% -5% -4% Expected low single digit organic decline in operating profit Pernod Ricard International Competitor 1 1.Organic growth: Pernod Ricard: Asia figures only International Competitor 1: Asia Pacific figures 8
9 CONTENTS Short-term pause in the long-term growth Not the first time Impressive rebound post 2008 crisis Leading to record high comparables Current environment is particularly unfavorable Medium and long-term potential intact H1 impact likely to last through the full 13/14 fiscal year Different dynamics at play market-by-market Better resilience outside China India rally Travel Retail excellence Japan resurgence Thailand re-shuffle Korea adaptation China challenge Ambition intact 9
10 Better resilience outside China H1 13/14 vs 12/13 Full Year estimate 13/14 vs 12/13 VOLUME NET SALES 1 0% 9% Expected high single digit organic growth in operating profit OPERATING PROFIT 1 3% PR Asia excl. China 1.Organic growth 10
11 India rally 4 th largest Pernod Ricard market No.1 in Premium + Western Style Spirits Sustained underlying momentum Net Sales Operating Profit /12 Organic Forex 2012/ /14 Growth Impact /12 Organic Forex 2012/ /14 Growth Impact HY2 HY1 INDEX 100: 2011/12 FULL YEAR 11
12 India rally Outperforming Competition H1 13/14 PR Local India (1) (2) Comp. 1 (2) Leadership in Premium Indian Whiskies Vol % 350-2% Net Sales % % SOM H1 (2) Admix Reference (INR) Blenders Pride 61% +1pt Premium (580<RSP<935) Royal Stag 80% -1pt Deluxe(360<RSP <580) Operating Profit % 86 0% Imperial Blue 29% +1pt Value (275<RSP<360) Royal Stag Short Films, Collaborating with Bollywood/budding film directors to develop an innovative online platform has got 16.5 Million+ minutes of content view in last 12 months. (1) Index (2) H1 13/14 vs. LY, local accounts 12
13 India rally Strong sustained performance on international brands +40%* No.1 Scotch SOM 1 42% +4pts 100 Pipers Box Concerts strengthens the ownership of Music & engages across digital & social media +15%* Challenging the leader SOM 2 43% +1pt +63%* No.1 Malt SOM 2 43% +7pts Chivas collaborates with designer Rajesh Pratap Singh to create a Chivas Festive Pack. +17%* No.1 Premium Vodka. SOM 2 76% +2pts 1. Vol MS, YTD Dec 13 vs. 12/13 (Scotch Bottled in India) 2. Vol MS, YTD Dec13 vs. 12/13 * H1 Net Sales Organic Growth ABSOLUT collaborates with world renowned artist Anish Kapoor to create a masterpiece 13
14 Travel Retail Excellence New organisation effective since July 2013 H1 impacted by shipments timing Net Sales Operating Profit /12 Organic Forex 2012/ /14 Growth Impact /12 Organic Forex 2012/ /14 Growth Impact HY2 HY1 INDEX 100: 2011/12 FULL YEAR 14
15 Travel Retail Excellence Depletions growing mid single digit, backed up by strong activation plans +5%* +6%* +33%* +3%* Chivas 18 tin pack limited edition was launched in key markets (Jan Jun 2014). Royal Salute Polo Batch was launched with polo themed promotional support (Jan Feb 2014). The Glenlivet guardians campaign with a focus on Master Distiller s Reserve (Jan Feb 2014). Martell Millésimes 1971, exclusive to TR showcased in Martell shop-in-shop at multiple locations across Asia (Mar Jun 2014). * YTD Vol Depletion Growth 15
16 Absolut Store in Kuala Lumpur The word s first ABSOLUT brand store opened in Kuala Lumpur. The 484-square-foot venue features an Absolut bespoke bar, while an Absolut Drinkspiration display offers cocktails for travellers to consume in a lounge area (Sep 2013 onwards). 16
17 Travel Retail Excellence Seizing the opportunity of Chinese Travellers 2013 Top International Departing Airports for Chinese Pax Top 6 Airports Chinese Departing (M) vs 2012 Hong Kong % Bangkok % Taipei % Seoul % Singapore % Macau % OTHER 2012 Asian Countries Visited By Chinese 6% 1% 3% 9% 4% 3% 2% 26% 42% ASIA 91% ASIA (Growth 12 Vs 11) ASIA Other SINGAPORE(+16%) VIETNAM (+17%) THAILAND(+47%) JAPAN(+21%) MALAYSIA(+25%) TAIWAN(+43%) STH KOREA (+27%) MACAU(+9%) HONG KONG (+23%) HK (CNY- Value) BKK (H1 Value) Korea (2013- Volume) +34% +4% +75% +34% +4% +75% +14% +16% +14% +14% +16% +14% Source: Paxsmart 2014 Airport Statistics have different means of calculating outbound numbers & can not be compared. 17
18 Japan resurgence Good underlying performance Martell distribution taken back by PR Japan in February 2014 Net Sales Operating Profit / /13 Organic Forex 2013/14 Growth Impact Organic Forex 2011/12 Growth Impact 2013/14 HY2 HY1 INDEX 100: 2011/12 FULL YEAR 18
19 Japan resurgence Continued growth on key brands thanks to premiumisation/innovation +4%* +24%* +4%* -1%* +2%* Chivas Mizunara - Scottish Tribute to Japanese discernment (October 2013) A new Belle Epoque limited edition to celebrate spring. Price 150 INDEX (January 2014) Continued flavour innovation on Café de Paris - Latest flavour Melon (February 2014) Jacob's Creek collaborated with Japanese chef Toru Hashimoto to create WAH Red wine to pair with yakitori and Wagyu beef. (March 2014) This new spirit represents a fusion of the traditions of Scotland with the passion of Brazil. (coming soon) * H1 Net Sales Organic Growth 19
20 Thailand re-shuffle Continued challenging market dynamics Duties increase September 13 On-going protests Bangkok state of emergency for 60 days Consumer confidence at its lowest point in 2 years Tourist arrivals reduced by half Strong competition from local Whiskies Re-engineering of PR Thailand New PR Thailand effective April 14 Leaner, more focused organisation Off-Trade On-Trade Greater Bangkok & South Key Portfolio priorities High profile launches Chivas Pinninfarina Art in party experiential events Lamoon Red Wine Compliments Thai Cuisine * H1 Vol. Depletions - evolution 20
21 Korea adaptation Rapidly evolving environment Double digit decline of Whisky category but double digit growth of Modern Spirits Strong Decline of Traditional on-trade but strong growth of modern on-trade and off-trade New business model (in progress) Event Space The flagship venue to communicate the brand Pernod Ricard, located in the fashionable Chungdam District Brand building events with consumers Training events (mentoring/cocktail/wine tasting) Corporate events & trade engagement Re-staged all sub-brands of Imperial to differentiate local brand Develop modern spirits Art in party experiential events New sales organisation in design * H1 Vol. Depletions - evolution 21
22 China challenge Resisting strong headwinds to come out a stronger leader Net Sales Operating Profit / /13 Organic Forex 2013/14 Growth Impact Organic Forex 2011/12 Growth Impact 2013/14 HY2 HY1 INDEX 100: 2011/12 FULL YEAR 22
23 China challenge China paradox Strong headwinds Strong headwinds Macro-economic slowdown Anti-extravaganza and anti-corruption campaigns getting stronger, recent action on KTVs MACs development Strong fundamentals % 12% 0% 19% 25% 4% 87% 80% 71% Affluent Middle Others 2013 F2017 F2020 Market currently in double digit decline Huge reservoir for imported wine and spirits Premium + Western Style Spirits 5M 9L Cs (0.3% of W&S) Vol* H1 13/14 CNY 13/14 Cognac -20% -20% Whisky -15% -9% Total Imported Spirits -15% N/A *T1 Depletions 1. IWSR + Pernod Ricard Market View 2. Imported spirits include imported spirits in domestic and DF markets 3. Premium+WSS = WSS>7USD 4. All alcohol include beer, spirits, wine and cider in domestic and DF markets Unit: 9L case Growth: 2013F vs 2012 % Based on Wines & Spirits Source: IHS Global Insight 2013 (2005 USD Constant FX) MAC: Millions household income PPP, Affluents > $80K, Middle Class: $20k-80k,Others: <$20k 23
24 China challenge PR China delivering a very competitive performance thanks to an effective CNY program YTD SOM 1 Martell +5pts Whiskies +1pt of which Chivas of which Ballantine s +2pts -1pt 1. T1 depletions (Wholesalers panel) 24
25 China challenge Performance by brand Performance by channel Volume 1 CNY 2 YTD 3 Volume 4 YTD 3 % total business Martell +1% -6% Whiskies -22% -19% KTVs F-KTVs Bars Double digit decline ~20% Mid single digit decline ~10% High single digit decline ~25% Total PR China -13% -14% Off-Trade High single digit decline ~35% Other n/a ~10% 1. T1 & T2 depletions 2. Dec-Feb 13/14 3. Fiscal YTD Feb Outlet intake 25
26 China challenge PR China is best positioned to seize future growth opportunities Core Business Core Business - Strong leader getting stronger Noblige success story New Business New Business Premium spirits targeting beer consumption 45%* 650 K Cs 60%* Leader of Premium 45%* Whisky Leader of Premium Vodka Specific offer targeting meal consumption Martell Distinction complements Chinese cuisine Jacob s Creek True Emotions Campaign China Exclusive * SOM Vol 26
27 China challenge PR China is best positioned to seize future growth opportunities New Business New Business - Female offerings Launch of Malibu RTD 01/04/2014 E-commerce Success Image from PRC Kahlua & Champagne 27
28 CONTENTS Short-term pause in the long-term growth Not the first time Impressive rebound post 2008 crisis Leading to record high comparables Current environment is particularly unfavorable Medium and long-term potential intact H1 impact likely to last through the full 13/14 fiscal year Different dynamics at play market-by-market Better resilience outside China India rally Travel Retail excellence Japan resurgence Thailand re-shuffle Korea adaptation China challenge Ambition intact 28
29 Ambition intact Confirming the value share mid-term objectives announced at last year Capital Market Day Value Share 1 Premium + Western Style Spirits 12/13 2 Mid-Term Objective PR Asia 36.5% +3 pts >40% PR China 49.5% +2 pts >50% PR India 46.5% +2 pts >50% 1. Gross Margin 2. vs. 10/11 29
30 Thank You 30
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