China: The Untapped Freighter Market

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1 China: The Untapped Freighter Market A China USA perspective Marco Bloemen, YDL Management Consultants E: T:

2 Scope of this presentation Macro-economic figures China - USA Air Cargo Developments Sector Analysis Regional Differences Conclusions

3 China s role in world the economy is growing with roughly the same people Macro-economic shares in population, GDP and world exports for 1998, 2002 and estimated for world population 20.9% 20.6% 20.3% GDP (market exchange rates) 3.2% 4.0% 4.2% GDP (at PPP) 10.6% 12.6% 15.2% world exports 3.4% 5.2% 7.9% Source: EIU

4 China is the 4 th US trading partner 120 Top 10 U.S. trading partner countries in Q In $US billions , Italy Taiwan France Korea U.K. Germany China Japan Mexico Canada January - March Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5 but with the largest trade deficit for the USA Top five countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit (first three months of 2003) China Japan Canada Mexico Germany , In $US millions -10, , , , , , , , , , January - March Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6 First 3 months of 2003 trade deficit larger than full year 1993 U.S. trade balance with China ,000-40,000 In $US billions -60,000-80, , ,000 January - March Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7 Average hourly earnings in the U.S. are 22 times higher than in China 16 U.S. versus China hourly wage comparison In $US per hour U.S. China Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Economist

8 US GDP (using PPP) per capita only 8 times higher than China s Per capita GDP (PPP PPP) comparison for ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 In $US 20,000 15,000 36,300 10,000 5,000 Source: CIA World Fact Book 0 U.S. 4,600 China

9 FDI substantial and consistent, primarily deployed in manufacturing Total realized FDI in China In $US billions Source: Department of Commerce

10 USA accounts for roughly 30% of China air exports China air exports to the world in 2001 in tons Exports FROM Legend All partner countries 30.86% Americas Asia Pacific Europe Other 32.57% 7.28% 29.29% Source: YDL Trade Database

11 but, only caters for 16% of Chinese air imports China air import from the world in 2001 in tons Imports INTO Legend All partner countries Americas Asia Pacific Europe Other 48.48% 15.93% 1.80% 33.79% Source: YDL Trade Database

12 Imbalance between Europe and China is 2,5 to 1 westbound Europe - China air trade in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg 000's) Legend Exports FROM Europe Imports INTO Europe 350, , , , , , , Source: YDL Trade Database

13 while USA - China air trade imbalance is close to 7 to 1 USA - China air trade from in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kgs x 1000) Legend Exports FROM the U.S.A. Imports INTO the U.S.A. 500, , , , , Source: YDL Trade Database

14 Chinese air exports to USA pick up strongly, while imports stay flat China air trade with USA from January 2000 until July 2003 per quarter in tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 160, Legend Exports FROM the U.S.A. Imports INTO the U.S.A. 140, , , , , , , Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2 Source: YDL Trade Database

15 LAX, SFO, CHI & NYC primary growth markets for US imports US air imports from China per destination US region from Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 500, Legend Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Southeast Midwest North Midwest South Pacific Northwest Pacific Southwest Separated Regions 400, , , , Source: YDL Trade Database

16 Market exhibits seasonal peaks in October & November and troughs through January-March USA - China trade per month in in air tons Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 60, Legend Exports FROM the U.S.A. Imports INTO the U.S.A. 50, , , , , Jan 2000-Mar 2000-May 2000-Jul 2000-Sep 2000-Nov 2001-Jan 2001-Mar 2001-May 2001-Jul 2001-Sep 2001-Nov 2002-Jan 2002-Mar 2002-May 2002-Jul 2002-Sep 2002-Nov 2003-Jan 2000-Feb 2000-Apr 2000-Jun 2000-Aug 2000-Oct 2000-Dec 2001-Feb 2001-Apr 2001-Jun 2001-Aug 2001-Oct 2001-Dec 2002-Feb 2002-Apr 2002-Jun 2002-Aug 2002-Oct 2002-Dec 2003-Feb Source: YDL Trade Database

17 Consumer and fashion goods and high tech are largest and fastest growing air export commodities Top 4 commodities from China to USA by air in tons from January 2000 to July 2003 per quarter Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) Legend 45, High Technology 40, Machinery parts. Components, supplies & manufactures n.e.s. Consumer Fashion Goods 35, Consumer personal & household goods 30, , , , , , Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2 Source: YDL Trade Database

18 80% of US air exports to China are production-related related US exports to China per major commodity type from Air Weight, metric tons (Kg x 1000) 80, , , , Legend High Technology Machinery parts. Other manufactures nes. Industrial raw materials & consumables Chemicals & Products Capital Equipment & Machinery Land Vehicles & Parts Consumer personal & household goods Secure or Special Handling Live Animals Temperature or Climate Control Consumer Fashion Goods 40, , , , Source: YDL Trade Database

19 Regional Differences: Income Income gap East ($4,000) vs West ($200) China Salaries difference between Hong Kong and Mainland China (US$) Hong Kong Mainland Head of Government 34, Professor 16, CEO 15,975 2,865 Controller 11,022 2,457 Manufacturing Director 10,150 1,866 Sales Director 8,454 1,524 Systems Engineer 3, Source: Asiaweek Salaries Survey 2000

20 New regional markets emerging along the coastline China: Air Trade with USA, Air Cargo tons, 2002 I IMPORTS TO CHINA E EXPORTS FROM CHINA In thousand tons Less than 5 50 to 60 5 to to to to to to 90 Ningbo 30 to to to 100 Shenzhen Source: YDL Analysis

21 Some vehicle production moving westbound, but limited Production facilities of international vehicle manufacturers in China Heilongjian g Xinjiang Jilin Inner Mongolia Liaoning Hebei BEIJING Tianjin Tibet Qinghai Gansu Sichuan Ningxia Shaanxi Shanxi Henan Hubei Shandong Jiangsu Anhui Shanghai Zhejiang CHRYSLER Yunnan Guizhou Guangxi Hunan Jiangxi Fujian Guangdon g Hong Kong Taiwan Hainan Source: Austrade

22 Conclusions: China USA freighter market: untapped? China black cat, white cat strategy does not benefit US air export trade (Europe is!) Imbalance air trade will even expand as Chinese exports rise Seasonality effects enlarge in absolute terms Fashion and High tech expected to keep showing strong growth Shanghai catchment area will grow faster than rest of China New regional export markets on the rise

23 不入虎穴, 焉得虎子 If you don t go to the tiger s cave, how can you catch the tiger s son Chinese proverb

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