The impact of difficulties in EU-Russia trade relations on the Finnish foodstuffs sector

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1 The impact of difficulties in EU-Russia trade relations on the Finnish foodstuffs sector Jyrki Niemi Natural Resources Institute Finland Perttu Pyykkönen Pellervo Economic Research

2 Background On August 7, Russia announced that it would impose a ban for one year on imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy products from the EU, US, Australia, Canada and Norway The impacts of the ban are not evenly distributed across countries and different products Finland is one of the countries hardest hit by the ban The most affected sector is the dairy industry

3 Data source: Eurostat Value of banned exports ( ) to Russia in relation to output of agricultural production at producer prices in 2013 LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA FINLAND POLAND DENMARK BELGIUM HUNGARY NETHERLANDS GREECE CYPRUS AUSTRIA GERMANY IRELAND SPAIN BULGARIA CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA FRANCE ITALY PORTUGAL SWEDEN SLOVENIA UNITED KINGDOM ROMANIA MALTA LUXEMBOURG 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

4 Value of banned dairy exports ( ) to Russia in relation to output of dairy production at producer prices in 2013 Data source: Eurostat LITHUANIA FINLAND ESTONIA LATVIA NETHERLANDS DENMARK POLAND CZECH REPUBLIC BELGIUM GERMANY SLOVAKIA HUNGARY FRANCE AUSTRIA ITALY PORTUGAL SWEDEN IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM BULGARIA SLOVENIA CYPRUS SPAIN GREECE 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

5 Background On August 7, Russia announced that it would impose a ban for one year on imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy products from the EU, US, Australia, Canada and Norway The impacts of the ban are not evenly distributed across countries and different products Finland is one of the countries hardest hit by the ban The most affected sector is the dairy industry In the following, some figures concerning Finnish dairy sector before and after the ban First, we analyze the changes in the Finnish dairy trade Secondly, we look at the dairy industry and its turnover, profitability and employment Thirdly, we take a producer view on the topic: producer price and its effect on family farm income and profitability

6 Russia has been the major export destination for Finnish dairy products The share of Russia in Finland s dairy exports in % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Of value Of volume 0% Source: Finnish Customs, PTT

7 Impact of Russian food import ban on Finnish dairy industry A direct impact on Finland's milk markets has been that a new destination had to be found for the products exported to Russia Finnish dairy exports to Russia has consisted mainly of added-value products, for which substitutive export markets are difficult to find Therefore, a large part of the raw milk used for the products exported to Russia are processed to other products In practice, these products are mainly industrial butter and milk powder Their profitability is considerably weaker than that of the range of products exported to Russia

8 Finnish cheese export to Russia has been replaced by powder export Monthly export (dairy products from Finland in Powders 5 Cheese Source: Finnish Customs, PTT

9 Export volumes have recovered Index 1/2010 = Source: Finnish Customs, PTT

10 Export volumes have recovered, but the value of exports is much lower Index 1/2010 = 100 Value and volume of Finnish dairy exports Value Volume 60 Source: Finnish Customs, PTT

11 Impacts on dairy farms (1) Over the years, the producer price of milk in Finland has been among the highest in the EU. However, market losses due to the Russian embargo have had direct effect on producer price

12 Producer price of milk has been affected by the Russian sanctions Producer price of milk ,00 51,00 49,00 Added by patronage refund Producer price 47,00 45,00 43,00 41,00-15% 39,00 37,00 35,00 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV Source: Luke

13 Impacts on dairy farms (1) Over the years, the producer price of milk in Finland has been among the highest in the EU. However, market losses due to the Russian embargo have had direct effect on producer price Current producer price is 15% less than year before As a result of this, farm income, i.e. the compensation for own labour and invested capital, is expected to decrease by 35-40% in an average-size dairy cattle farm of 33 cows

14 Impacts on dairy farms(2) Sanctions are not directly affecting dairy farms' structural development, which has advanced with an annual speed of 7% on average during the past years In the short term, it is not expected, either, that the decrease in the producer price would affect the produced amount of milk, because it takes time to adapt the production The prospects for the amounts of milk produced in Finland in the long term depend on whether the farms continuing their milk production expand it Volatility of market prices, to the increase of which the sanctions contribute for their part, creates uncertainty and increases the risk of investment failure

15 Thank you!

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