US Aromatics. Overview on US Aromatics Feedstocks Adhesives and Sealants Council, Zachary Moore Markets Reporter.
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1 US Aromatics Overview on US Aromatics Feedstocks Adhesives and Sealants Council, Zachary Moore Markets Reporter 1
2 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary US Toluene & Mixed Xylenes Overview of Toluene & Mixed Xylenes 2
3 US Benzene 3
4 The Benzene Value Chain shows a host of products used in our daily lives. The main driver of US benzene is ethylbenzene for styrene production. Downstream products include tires, footwear and sealants from SBR and insulation and cups from PS The second largest outlet is cumene for phenol production Downstream products include coatings from epoxy resins and computer components from polycarbonate The cyclohexane chain produces carpets and clothing from nylons 4
5 The Benzene Value Chain shows a host of products used in our daily lives. The main driver of US benzene is ethylbenzene for styrene production. Downstream products include tires, footwear and sealants from SBR and insulation and cups from PS The second largest outlet is cumene for phenol production Downstream products include coatings from epoxy resins and computer components from polycarbonate The cyclohexane chain produces carpets and clothing from nylons The Benzene Value Chain shows a host of products used in our daily lives. The main driver of US benzene is ethylbenzene for styrene production. Downstream products include tires, footwear and sealants from SBR and insulation and cups from PS The second largest outlet is cumene for phenol production Downstream products include coatings from epoxy resins and computer components from polycarbonate The cyclohexane chain produces carpets and clothing from nylons 5
6 US Benzene vs upstream Update on crude oil outlook/pricing Benzene more volatile than crude Toluenebenzene spread impacts benzene production economics Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Benzene WTI (Friday close) Toluene Source: ICIS Pricing 6
7 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary 7
8 US Benzene Production Majority of US benzene supply in 2014 was produced in reformers Ethylene unit coproduct was another significant source of US benzene On-purpose benzene production through toluene was the next largest source Refinery Cracker Other On-purpose Source: ICIS Consulting 8
9 Benzene-Toluene Price Spread On-purpose benzene production depends on the price spread between benzene and toluene The spread has narrowed in the last year Oct Nov Dec Recent price spike encourages on-purpose benzene Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Benzene Toluene Source: ICIS Pricing 9
10 Millions of tonnes US Benzene Consumption vs Production Ethane cracking generates less benzene as coproduct Imports serve a vital role in the US benzene market Source: ICIS Consulting % 78% 84% 83% 85% Total consumption Total production 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10
11 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary 11
12 US Benzene Imports The US receives the majority of its benzene imports from South Korea All others 41% South Korea 22% Saudi Arabia 11% Brazil 8% Venezuela 18% Source: US ITC 12
13 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Millions of litres US Benzene Imports - The US receives the majority of its benzene imports from South Korea Overall, imports in early were down from early 2014 Volumes from South Korea made up a larger percentage of total US imports in early South Korea Venzuela Saudi Arabia Brazil All other sources Source: US ITC 13
14 US Benzene vs South Korea benzene spot prices 2.70 The spread between US and South Korea benzene prices has narrowed as petrochemical prices have declined, resulting in narrower and less frequent arbitrage windows in Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep US South Korea Source: ICIS Pricing 14
15 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary 15
16 US Benzene Consumption Ethylbenzene is mostly used to make styrene Cumene is nearly all consumed in phenol/acetone production Cyclohexane is primarily used in the nylon chain Ethylbenzene (Styrene) Nitrobenzenes Alkylbenzene Cyclohexane Source: ICIS Consulting Cumene (Phenol) 16
17 Downstream: North American Styrene Exports Source: ITC 17
18 Styrene and Ethylbenzene exports Source: ITC 18
19 US Benzene vs US Styrene Styrenebenzene spread narrowing as more SM plants resume production Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Benzene Styrene Source: ICIS Pricing 19
20 Styrene and Cumene Production Source: AFPM survey 20
21 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary 21
22 US Spot Benzene vs Contract Main impacts on benzene pricing: Imports/exports Styrene demand Crude oil prices Asia and Europe prices Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Spot Contract Source: ICIS Pricing 22
23 000s tonnes US Benzene Supply & Demand Annual growth of real consumption is forecast to average 1.2% through 2017, and 0.7% Production is expected to increase by 4.5% by 2025 Source: ICIS Consulting 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Production Consumption Utilization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 23
24 US Benzene Overview Production Imports/Exports Consumption Summary US Toluene & Mixed Xylenes Overview of Toluene & Mixed Xylenes 24
25 US Toluene & Mixed Xylenes 25
26 US Toluene & Mixed Xylenes vs WTI 2.50 Toluene and MX spread vs WTI remain wide MX and toluene prices have remained firm so far in Q4 on tight supply Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep WTI (Friday close) Toluene MX Source: ICIS Pricing 26
27 US Toluene & MX Consumption vs Production The US is a net importer of toluene For MX, the US is a net exporter Consumption 2,128 Production 1,896 Consumption 3,449 Production 3,385 Toluene 000s of tonnes MX Consumption Production Source: ICIS Consulting 27
28 US Toluene & MX trade balance 400 Net toluene imports rose in Net MX exports softer in Toluene 000s of tones MX Source: ICIS Consulting 28
29 US Gasoline production Strong gasoline production prevented a summer price spike in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Source: EIA 29
30 US Toluene & MX consumption The largest chemical outlet in for toluene was benzene and for MX was PX TOLUENE CONSUMPTION Benzene/PX MX CONSUMPTION Paraxylene Misclaneous Phenol Orthoxylene Nitrotoluenes Solvent TDI Solvents Miscellaneous Source: ICIS Consulting 30
31 US Toluene vs downstream 2.90 Economics for benzene production have been unattractive most of Economics for PX production have been unattractive for much of Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Benzene Toluene PX Source: ICIS Pricing 31
32 US MX vs downstream An explosion at an Asian aromatics facility shortened PX supply and widened the PX-MX spread in April and May Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep MX PX Source: ICIS Pricing 32
33 000s tonnes US Toluene Supply & Demand Annual growth of real consumption is forecast to average 1.3% through 2017 and 1.1% Production is expected to increase by 11% by ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Production Consumption Utilization Source: ICIS Consulting 33
34 000s tonnes US MX Supply & Demand Annual growth of real consumption is forecast to average 8.5% through 2017 and 3.1% Production is expected to increase by 30% by ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Production Consumption Utilization Source: ICIS Consulting 34
35 Questions & Answers Contact Zachary Moore Markets Reporter, Americas 35
36 Global Presence, Local Insight More than 30 years of industry insight and data Over 100,000 industry customers Weekly contact with thousands of market participants Over 9,200 price assessments in 1,200 reports covering 180 commodities 700+ global employees Customers include virtually every major chemical company 17,000+ annual news stories 36
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