Soft Commodity Markets - Upcoming Milestones, and How the Market Could Be Affected

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1 Soft Commodity Markets - Upcoming Milestones, and How the Market Could Be Affected September 15, 2014 Judith Ganes President J. Ganes Consulting, LLC

2 Weather & Politics Current Weather Expectations El Nino Yes or No? Development of Atlantic Hurricane Season Potential Impact of Russian Sanctions 2

3 Current Weather Expectations Coffee: Brazil and C America Too Dry FCOJ: Slim Chance of Hurricane Hit Sugar: Post Drought Assessment Ongoing Cotton: Harvest Weather Critical, Some Rain Cocoa: All Great in West Africa 3

4 NOAA Predicting 65% Chance of Fall / Winter El Niño but Downgraded 4

5 Strong El Nino Conditions Reduces Global Cocoa Output Primary climate changes during El Nino events: Dryness in West Africa and South-East Asia to weigh on top three largest cocoa producers Ivory Coast: - 4.7% Ghana: - 6.6% Increased precipitation in parts of Brazil Southern Brazil (cocoa producing states): % Globally cocoa output is reduced by 5% in El Nino years compared to the 6 year average 5

6 No Clear Correlation Between El Nino and Global Sugar Production El Nino events tend to cause off-setting gains and losses across the global sugar market Primary climate changes during El Nino events: Increased precipitation in Brazil 4.5% higher rainfall in principal growing state of Sao Paulo Correlation with production only seen for medium and severe El Nino Events Production decreased by 1.48% compared to 3 year average Rains in Southern India, Dryness in Northern India Indian production located in Northern and Southern states No clear correlation due to wide-geographic area and different harvesting times for each state Increased precipitation in China Production highly correlated with El Nino Episodes 1.25% above 3 year average 6

7 August NOAA Hurricane Outlook Favorable for Orange Crop 7 Currently a 70% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season Conditions, including potential El Nino, serve to suppress storm development Below-normal Atlantic hurricane season would include: 7 12 Named storms (39 mph winds or higher) 12 = 30 year average 3 6 Hurricanes (74 mph winds or higher) 6 = 30 year average 0 2 Major Hurricanes (111 mph winds or higher) 1 2 = 30 year average Though storm activities will be less frequent, they could have a greater than normal impact on already stressed trees

8 Impact of Russian Sanctions May Weigh on Chocolate Companies Price Ratio to Beans Butter Imports Reduced Russian chocolate imports may reduce ability of chocolate manufacturers to pass on prices to consumers With butter priced over $8,500 per ton, chocolate makers may need to seek out alternative fats or risk margin erosion Jan-04 Aug-06 Mar-09 Oct-11 May-14 8

9 Russian Sugar Imports To Dip Though a Rise in Production Responsible 6 Million Tons 5 Output Imports /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht,, J. Ganes Consulting

10 Seasonal Swings and Spreads Impact of Seasonal Tendencies Post-monsoon Indian Sugar Prospects Brazilian Coffee Export Potential 10

11 Coffee: After Strong Exports, What Will Brazil Have Left When Exports Typically Ramp up Post Harvest and Ahead of N American Winter? Million 60-kg Bags /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/ Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: ICO, J. Ganes Consulting

12 Brazilian Arabica Exports Reflecting Past Crops; Robusta Volumes Double on Bigger Crop Million 60-kg Bags (Oct Jun) Arabica Robusta /94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ICO, J. Ganes Consulting

13 Late June / July Rains Removed Monsoon Indian Sugar Crop Fears, Northern India May See Flooding Million Tons Cents per Pound /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht,, J. Ganes Consulting Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14

14 Concentrated Production Increases Weather Event Risk 80% Share of Global Output 70% 70% 60% 50% 40% Sugar: Brazil, India, China Cocoa: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia 36% 30% 14 20% 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht,, J. Ganes Consulting

15 Market Sentiment Evolving view on US Cotton Impact of US Cotton crop on Global Market Outlook for Sugar Demand 15

16 US Cotton Crop Estimates Yet to Decline Million 480 lb. Bales and Cents per Pound Cotton Futures Price USA 2014/2015 Crop Estimates /1/14 5/1/14 5/31/14 6/30/14 7/30/14 8/29/14 9/28/14 Source: USDA, Futuresource

17 Strong Yields and Jump in Acreage Responsible for Bumper US Cotton Crop 8 7 Harvested Area Yield Million Hectares and Pounds per Hectare 2,250 2,150 2,050 1, ,850 1, ,650 1, , /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting 1,350 1,250

18 US Responsible For Much of Global Cotton Stock Expansion Change in Ending Stocks - Million 480 lb. Bales USA Foreign Excl. China /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting

19 Increased US Cotton Production May End Up in China Million 480 lb. Bales 30 JGC Revised 25 Current USDA Imports /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 19 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting

20 Fundamental Favorites Fourth Consecutive Sugar Surplus? Brazilian Coffee Downturn in Perspective FCOJ Market Safe from Short Specs 20

21 Sugar Market Theoretically in 4 th Straight Year of Surplus Million Tons 190 Output 180 Use /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht,, J. Ganes Consulting

22 Statistical Loss Has The Global Sugar Market Tightening Million Tons 15 Change in Stocks /95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht,, J. Ganes Consulting

23 2011 Coffee Rally Based On a 5 Million Bag Reduction in Colombia 18 Million 60-kg Bags Colombian Output Producer Stocks /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting

24 Drop in Brazilian Production Could Be as Much as 3x as Large as in Colombia Million 60-kg Bags Potential Production 55 Robusta Arabica /12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 24 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting

25 Producer Coffee Stocks Not Enough To Cover Multi-Year Brazilian Losses, Exports to Slow in 16/17 35 Million 60-kg Bags /97 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17 Source: USDA, J. Ganes Consulting

26 OJ Downside Limited by Disease, Upside Limited by Sharp Weather Related Price Movements Thousand Contracts and Cents per Pound Solids 25 Speculator Long Interest 20 Price Jan-00 Nov-02 Oct-05 Aug-08 Jul-11 May-14 Source: Futuresource, CFTC

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