CropCast Global Coffee Estimates

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1 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Global Estimates AREA (th hectares) YIELD (kg/ha) PRODUCTION (M bags) 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 South America Asia/Oceania Africa North America WORLD Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency MEXICO C AMERICA E AFRICA VIETNAM COLOMBIA INDIA SE ASIA BRAZIL Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Legend Stressed Desert Healthy Colored boxes within the map above indicate whether crop conditions will be declining or improving for each crop in each major global growing region, incorporating current conditions and the latest 10 day CropCAST forecast. 92 Declining Snow/Ice or Missing Data Neutral Improving Vegetative Health Index Change From Last Year Desert Worse 4 Better Snow/Ice or Missing Data

2 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Summary: The CROPCAST estimate for 17/18 world coffee production is M bags, an increase in production, due to higher estimates in Mexico. Dry weather across most of the belt in Brazil this week should favor early harvesting Soil moisture will remain adequate across the Central Highlands of Vietnam Showers should improve soil moisture some in central Colombia this week Drier weather will favor early harvesting in southern Sumatra and Java this week Heavy rains led to flooding and wetness in south-central Mexico last week Dryness will linger in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya in East Africa GROWING AREAS Brazil PAST WEATHER: Rains were noted in southern Sao Paulo and Parana this past week. Amounts were 1.50 to 3.5, locally 4.5, with coverage of 15%. FORECAST: Showers will continue in far southern Sao Paulo and Parana this week while conditions remain dry elsewhere. CROP IMPACT: Dry weather in most areas will continue to improve conditions for early coffee harvesting while showers in Parana slow those efforts a bit. Temperatures will turn colder later this week, but frost is not expected. Vietnam PAST WEATHER: Light showers favored the Central Highlands this past week. Amounts were less than 0.25, with 10% coverage. FORECAST: Scattered showers are expected across the coffee belt this week. CROP IMPACT: Slight dryness will continue across the Central Highlands this week, but no major concerns are expected to develop as scattered showers are expected. Colombia PAST WEATHER: Scattered showers were noted in northern and central areas last week. Amounts were 0.50 to 1.5, with coverage of 45%. FORECAST: Showers should increase across the central tier of the coffee belt this week. CROP IMPACT: Increasing rainfall in central areas should ease some of the dryness this week, but more rains will be needed across the region as a whole in order to replenish moisture for cherry growth.

3 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Southeast Asia PAST WEATHER: Showers were widespread across Sumatra, Java, and Malaysia last week, with heavier rains favoring Sulawesi. Amounts were 1 to 3, locally 9.75, with 90% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should remain widespread across central Sulawesi this week, with lighter, scattered showers prevailing across the rest of the region. CROP IMPACT: Continued rains in central Sulawesi will slow early coffee harvesting while drier weather in southern Sulawesi, southern Sumatra, and Java favors early harvesting. Some dryness will persist in northern Sumatra and Malay Peninsula. Central America PAST WEATHER: Showers were widespread across western and far eastern Guatemala, western Honduras, and Costa Rica last week. Lighter showers favored eastern Honduras. Amounts were 0.5 to 2.5, with coverage of 55%. FORECAST: Showers should be a bit more widespread across the coffee areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Continued widespread showers this week should further improve conditions for coffee flowering and early cherry growth. Mexico PAST WEATHER: Very heavy rains were seen in south-central areas last week due to Tropical Storm Beatriz. Rains were also seen across most of Veracruz, Chiapas, and remaining southeastern areas. Amounts were 1.5 to 5, locally 11, with coverage of 70%. FORECAST: Showers should continue across south-central and southeastern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Heavy rains in south-central areas led to flooding and wetness issues, and continued showers this week will maintain those concerns. Dryness will persist in northern Chiapas and northwestern coffee areas as well. India PAST WEATHER: Rains were widespread across western Karnataka and Kerala this past week. Amounts were 1 to 5, with 40% coverage. FORECAST: Rains should favor Karnataka and Kerala again this week. CROP IMPACT: Additional rainfall this week will lead to further improvements in soil moisture, favoring coffee flowering.

4 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 East Africa PAST WEATHER: Rains continued in western Ethiopia this past week while showers favored central Ethiopia, southern Uganda, western Kenya, and Tanzania. Amounts were 0.50 to 2.0, locally 4, with coverage of 70%. FORECAST: Scattered showers will favor western Ethiopia, southern Uganda, and Tanzania this week. CROP IMPACT: Dryness will persist across Uganda, northern Tanzania, and central Kenya as heavier, more consistent rainfall is needed to replenish moisture for cherry growth.

5 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast World Weekly Production Tracker (M bags) 2017/18 MARKETING YEAR 6-Jun 30-May 23-May 16-May 9-May 2-May 25-Apr 25-Apr SOUTH AMERICA ASIA/OCEANIA AFRICA NORTH AMERICA WORLD CropCast North America Estimates COSTA RICA DOMINICAN REP EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HAITI HONDURAS MEXICO NICARAGUA OTHERS NORTH AMERICA

6 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Asia/Oceania Estimates INDIA INDONESIA VIETNAM P. NEW GUINEA PHILIPPINES THAILAND OTHERS ASIA/OCEANIA CropCast Africa Estimates ANGOLA CAMEROON ETHIOPIA IVORY COAST KENYA MADAGASCAR RWANDA TANZANIA UGANDA ZAIRE OTHERS AFRICA

7 CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Brazil Estimates BY STATE BAHIA ESPIRITO SANTO ROBUSTA ARABICA MINAS GERAIS PARANA SAO PAULO OTHERS ARABICA ROBUSTA BRAZIL ARABICA BRAZIL ROBUSTA BRAZIL TOTAL CropCast Brazil South America Estimates BRAZIL COLOMBIA PERU VENEZUELA ECUADOR OTHERS SOUTH AMERICA

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