FlashMarket - May 2016

Transcription

1 - May 2016 Sugar #11 and #5 : prices May: speculators brought raw sugar over 17cts/lb Raw sugar maintained a good trend throughout the month of May, gaining 6 in the month, and finishing at over 17.5cts/lb, something not seen since July 2014 (p. 1)! White sugar found it harder to follow the rhythm: gaining only 2.5. The white premium finished the month just above US$(p. 3). At the very beginning of the month, FoLicht published its estimation of deficit for 2015/2016 (9.5Mt), and also gave its first estimation for 2016/2017, with another deficit campaign (around 6.1Mt). Mid-May, the data published by ISO was slightly more conservative (deficit at 6.6Mt in 2015/2016 and at 3.8Mt in 2016/2017), but with the same pattern: we are in deficit for at least 2 campaigns. This news kept speculatorsunderpressure,andtheyarenowinarecordpositionofnetbuyer(p.2),withalmost235,000lots(morethan11mt!).thisisa historical high, and is not comfortable: the situation can turn down quite sharply once speculators change their position. It will be interesting to see how the new term will be reached, mid-june All the currencies suffered compared to US$, from Euro (-2.5) to Mexican Peso (-4.7) and Brazilian Real (-2.0), and thus sugar gains acrosstheworldwereverydifferent:from6intheusto13insouthafrica(p.7&3). Oil gained 10 in May, after a +20 in April, and finished May almost at 50US$/barrel (p. 4). And all over the world, ethanol increased: +6 in Europe, +8 in the USA and + 10 in Brazil. But sugar and ethanol are quite isolated: corn and wheat remained dramatically low despite small gains(p. 5), and freight remained at a historically low level. White sugar (sugar#5, London, $/t) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, cts/lb) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, $/t) Settling date Aug ,3 478,1 11,8 2,5 Oct ,1 479,3 17,1 3,7 Dec ,1 479,7 18,6 4,0 Mar ,8 480,4 19,6 4,2 Jul 16 16,14 17,10 0,96 6,0 Oct 16 16,44 17,36 0,92 5,6 Mar 17 16,92 17,76 0,84 5,0 May 17 16,61 17,40 0,79 4,7 Jul ,8 377,0 21,25 6,0 Oct ,5 382,7 20,2 5,6 Mar ,9 391,5 18,6 5,0 May 366,3 383,6 17,4 4,7 Premium Aug 16/Jul ,6 101,1-9,5-8, Raw & White sugar over the month (daily price according to term T, US$/t) /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/2016 Raw-T1 Raw-T2 Raw-T3 Raw-T4 White-T1 White-T2 White-T3 White-T4 Sugar#11 and #5 prices since January 2010 front term, US$/t $800 $700 $600 $ $400 $300 $ Raw sugar, NY White Sugar, London FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 1

2 Sugar #11 and #5 : open interest & non-commercial operators positions White sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 0 Jul 16 Oct 16 Mar 17 May 17 Term White sugar (sugar#5, London, 1lot=50t) Average weekly open interest per term (x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, 1lot=112,000lb=50.8t) number number T1 55,7 55,8 0,1 0,2 400,7 380,1-20,6-5,1 T2 18,1 20,1 2,0 11,2 186,5 253,8 67,3 36,1 T3 11,7 13,4 1,7 14,5 122,8 144,7 21,9 17,8 T4 8,8 10,1 1,3 14,3 19,5 26,5 7,1 36,5 Total 98,8 104,5 5,7 5,8 791,9 877,8 85,8 10,8 Net position of speculators on sugar#11 in New-York & front term prices Net position of speculators, in lots (1lot : 50t) /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ Sugar#11 price, cts/lb Net position of speculators (non-commercial operators) Sugar #11 price FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 2

3 Sugar #11 : premium compared to Sugar#5 and prices in local currencies Front term white premium since January 2010 Front term, US$/t Price Changes since January 2013 Front term, in local currencies, from a Basis on the 01/01/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/2016 US$ Australian $ Br. Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Baht South Afri. Rand Nota: Russian Rouble left the graph in Jan 2015 (index>160) and came back between Feb. and Oct Currency US $ Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand Sugar#11 Front term 355,78 377,03 21,25 6,0 474,07 523,19 49,12 10, , ,87 101,48 8, , ,61 163,71 7,1 310,36 337,33 26,97 8, , , ,93 7, , ,54 701,94 11, , , ,18 6, , ,91 982,94 7, , ,91 697,94 13,4 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 3

4 Energy markets : ethanol, crude oil & gazoline Crude oil prices since January 2010 US$/barrel 120,00,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 WTI (New-York, US market) Brent (London, 2/3 of petrol exchanges) 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 Focus on BRAZIL : Ethanol in Sao Paulo since January 2010 Price Ex-distillery, Real/l Anhydrous Hydrous 1,00 Focus on USA : Ethanol & Gazoline prices since January 2010 Front term CBOT (Ethanol) & RBOB (Gazoline), US$/l 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Gazoline Ethanol Oil 44,24 49,01 4,78 10,8 45,16 49,12 3,96 8,8 Gazoline RBOB, US$/l 0,40 0,43 0,03 8,6 Ethanol In Brazil (ex. dist.) In USA (CBOT) In Europe (T2 Rtdam) WTI, US$/barrel Brent, US$/barrel Real/l (Anh., S. Paulo) Real/l (Hydr., Sao Paulo) US$/gal US$/l /l US$/l value 1,53 1,62 0,09 5,6 1,34 1,48 0,14 10,5 1,51 1,64 0,13 0,40 0,43 0,03 0,52 0,55 0,03 6,1 0,60 0,62 0,02 3,2 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 4 8,4

5 Grain markets : corn, soybeans, wheat, HFCS HFCS-55 in US Midwest market, Monthly from USDA, in US$/t dry weight Dry HFCS 55 monthly Price in USA April-15 April-16 US$/t 780,00 908,71 16,5 cts/lb 35,39 41, Grains and sugar#11 prices since January 2010 Front term, in US$/t Wheat (CBOT) Corn (CBOT) Soy (CBOT) Sugar#11 Corn Soy Wheat Front term (CBOT) US$/t 148,78 159,13 10,35 cts/bsl 377,90 404,20 26,30 US$/t 375,57 394,22 18,65 cts/bsl 1 022, ,00 50,75 US$/t 169,26 173,03 3,77 cts/bsl 460,70 470,95 10,25 7,0 5,0 2,2 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 5

6 By-products : molasses and beet pulps 400 Cane molasses and beet pulp since January 2010 In France and Netherlands, ex-tank, in US$/t Pulp in NL (LIE) Pulp in France (ARTB) Molasses ex-tank Amsterdam (LEI) By-products prices March-16 April-16 Beet pulp pellets NL France Cane molasses (ex-tank Amsterdam) US$/t 176,75 171,12-5,63-3,2 /t 159,75 151,65-8,10-5,1 US$/t 174,81 178,29 3,48 2,0 /t 158,00 158,00 0,00 0,0 US$/t 183,77 187,31 3,54 1,9 /t 166,10 166,00-0,10-0,1 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 6

7 Exchange rates Currency changes, compared to US$, since January 2013 Weekly based, basis on the first week of /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/2016 Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South-African Rand Value, in US$, of the Currency Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand 0,7505 0,7206-0,0298-4,0 0,2854 0,2797-0,0057-2,0 0,1542 0,1525-0,0016-1,0 1,1463 1,1177-0,0286-2,5 0,0150 0,0149-0,0002-1,1 0,0570 0,0543-0,0027-4,7 0,0152 0,0151-0,0001-0,8 0,0286 0,0281-0,0005-1,8 0,0684 0,0639-0,0045-6,6 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 7

8 Freight : Baltic indexes 3 Freight indexes since January Baltic Dry Panamax Capesize Supramax (the most used in Sugar) Freight index (Baltic) Index Baltic Dry Baltic Supramax Baltic Panamax Baltic Capesize index ,0 Fertilizers prices since January 2010 World bank, in US$/t 600,0,0 400,0 300,0,0,0 0,0 01/01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/2016 DAP Phosphate Rock Potassium Chloride TSP Urea DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf Phosphate rock (Moroccan), 70 BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver TSP (triple superphosphate), up to September 6 bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf; from October 6 onwards Tunisian, granular, f.o.b. Urea (Black Sea), bulk, spot, for (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe; 1991 (July) onwards f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 8

9 Market overview : the grower dashboard Sugar Sugar#11 Difference cts/lb 16,14 17,10 0,96 US$/t 355,78 377,03 21,25 6,0 Sugar#5 US$/t 466,34 478,12 11,78 2,5 Grains Ethanol cts/bsl 377,90 404,20 26,30 US$/t 148,78 159,13 10,35 cts/bsl 1 022, ,00 50,75 US$/t 375,57 394,22 18,65 cts/bsl 460,70 470,95 10,25 US$/t 169,26 173,03 3,77 /l 0,52 0,55 0,03 6,1 US$/l 0,60 0,62 0,02 3,2 US US$/l 0,40 0,43 0,03 8,4 Brazil Anydr. US$/l 1,53 1,62 0,09 5,6 Oil Brent US$/barrel 45,16 49,12 3,96 8,8 Freight Supramax Index ,1 Brazilian Currency Corn (CBOT) Soybeans (CBOT) Wheat (CBOT) EU spot 7,0 5,0 2,2 Value of 1 Real US$ 0,2854 0,2797-0,0057-2,0 Value of 1 US$ Real 3,503 3,575 0,072 2,0 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 9