Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service SSS-248 Feb. 5, 2007 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Stephen Haley Beet Sugar Production Forecast at Record Level Contents U.S. Sugar Mexican Sugar & HFCS Long-Term Projections Mexico Production, S&D Contact & Links Tables U.S. sugarbeet crop Estimates of sugar imports U.S. raw sugar tariffrate quota U.S. sugar deliveries U.S. product imports and exports Calculations of sugar prices Sweetener consumption projections for Mexico Mexico sugar projections Mexico imports of high fructose corn syrup imports Web Sites WASDE Sugar Briefing Room The next release is May 29, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Fiscal year (FY) 2007 beet sugar production is projected at a record million short tons, raw value (STRV). This projection level exceeds the previous record set in FY 2000 by over 100,000 STRV. Expected production gains since July have been concentrated in the Red River Valley region of Minnesota and North Dakota and in Idaho. Only in the central Great Plains (Nebraska, Colorado, and southeast Wyoming) have production prospects been downgraded from earlier levels. Cane sugar production is projected at million STRV, an improvement over last year s disappointing total of million STRV, but still short of the average of million STRV. Overall FY 2007 sugar production is forecast at million STRV. (This total is well short of the record in FY 2000 of million STRV.) Imports are projected at million STRV. Total imports are made up of tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports, million STRV (shortfall of 175,000 STRV); other USDA program imports, 325,000 STRV; and high-tier tariff and syrup imports, 60,000 STRV. Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use are projected at million STRV; other deliveries are 165,000 STRV; and exports are 200,000 STRV. Ending stocks (i.e., the difference between total supply and use) are projected at million STRV, implying a high ending fiscal year stocks-to-use ratio of 17.0 percent. The New York No.14 nearby raw sugar futures price averaged cents/pound (lb) in December and cents/lb through the first 18 days of January The minimum price to avoid forfeiture is calculated to be cents/lb in Florida, the largest cane-sugar-producing State. The Midwest beet sugar spot price from the Milling and Baking News averaged cents/lb in December and cents/lb through the first 2 weeks of January. While this price is still above minimum beet sugar prices to avoid forfeiture, plentiful supplies of refined sugar may continue to press the market downward for some months. Beet sugar processors report FY 2006 production at million STRV, down 3.6 percent from last year. Cane sugar mills report final FY 2006 production at million STRV, the lowest level since FY Hurricane damage in both Louisiana and Florida in fall 2005 resulted in low production in those States. The sum of beet and cane production is million.

2 Imports entering during FY 2006 are estimated by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) at million STRV, the largest level since FY The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) had increased the sugar TRQ four times after the initial level had been set in the beginning of August These increases were made in response to the damage to sugarcane crops in Louisiana and Florida and to disruptions to sugar refining at the two refineries in Louisiana. (The Chalmette plant was closed until early December and was subject to reduced deliveries for several months after reopening.) Total TRQ entries are estimated at million STRV. Due to problems in getting Certificates for Quota Eligibility (CQEs) to exporters in Mexico, much of the sugar from Mexico entered paying the high-tier tariff (3.02 cents/lb for raw sugar and 3.20 cents/lb for refined in 2006). This amount plus some other small imports from other countries is estimated at 450,000 STRV. Remaining imports entered for USDA s re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs (349,000 STRV) and as sugar syrups (thick juice and molasses) equivalent to 56,000 STRV of sugar. FY 2006 sugar deliveries for domestic food and beverage are estimated at million STRV. A large amount of these deliveries (596,300 STRV) were made up of direct-consumption refined sugar that went to entities that do not report to the USDA. Other deliveries (product re-export, polyhydric alcohol programs, and livestock feed) are estimated at 156,500 STRV, and ending year stocks held by processors and refiners are estimated at million STRV. The ending year stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 16.2 percent. The USDA projects 2006/07 Mexican production at million MTRV. This projection assumes about the same area harvested as last year and normal weather conditions. Harvesting progress has lagged considerably behind past seasons. Through January 13, 2007, only 911,050 metric tons of sugar has been produced from 9,454,172 metric tons of harvested sugarcane. Recovery is calculated at 9.64 percent, considerably below recent harvest seasons. Mexican sugar exports for 2006/07 are forecast at 230,000 MTRV, down 90,000 MTRV from the November 2006 forecast. The decrease is attributable to lower returns in the U.S. market compared with corresponding domestic returns. Mexican refined sugar prices are above the U.S refined beet sugar spot price 35.5 cents/lb for refinado (Mexico City) compared with 26.1 cents/lb (U.S. Midwest) in December. Also, the December average price for estandar sugar was cents/lb (Mexico City) compared with the nearby New York No. 14 futures price for raw sugar in December at cents/lb. Mexican sugar consumption for 2006/07 is forecast at 5.2 million MTRV, the same as last year. Consumption of high fructose corn syrup is expected to increase 100,000 metric tons (mt), dry weight from 650,000 mt in 2005/06 to 750,000 mt in 2006/07. 2

3 U.S. Sugar On January 12, 2007, the USDA released its latest supply and use projections for fiscal year (FY) 2007 and estimates for FY 2006 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Production The USDA s production estimates and projections are based primarily on information provided by beet sugar processors and cane sugar millers to the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Processors and millers project FY 2007 sugar production at million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of over 1.2 million STRV from FY Beet sugar is forecast at a record million STRV (more than 635,000 STRV, or 14.3 percent, higher than FY 2006), and cane sugar is forecast at million STRV (580,000 STRV, or 19.6 percent, higher than FY 2006). FY 2006 beet sugar production is estimated at million STRV, and FY 2006 cane sugar production is estimated at million STRV. Beet Sugar Production The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates sugarbeet area planted for FY 2007 at million acres, an increase of 66,900 acres, or 5.1 percent, from the previous year. This increase follows the 11.9-percent increase in the NASS calculated national sugarbeet price from $36.90/ton in 2004/05 to $41.30/ton in 2005/06. NASS estimates sugarbeet area harvested at million acres. All sugarbeetproducing regions show area increases (fig. 1). The largest percentage increase is in the Great Plains at 12.2 percent (20,200 acres), followed by the Far West at 9.9 Figure 1 Sugarbeet area harvested, crop years 2002/ /07 1,000 acres / / / / / Great Lakes Upper Midwest Great Plains Far West Source: "Crop Production," NASS, USDA. 3

4 percent (22,000 acres), Upper Midwest at 2.4 percent (17,000 acres), and the Great Lakes area at 1.3 percent (2,000 acres). NASS reported that a processor in the Upper Midwest abandoned area because the processor predicted that it could not slice its entire expected crop because of the large size. Indeed, NASS shows that only 94.1 percent of area planted in the Upper Midwest was harvested. (Interestingly, only 94.2 percent of the area planted in the same region was harvested last year.) NASS estimates the national yield at a record 25.9 tons, an increase of 17.2 percent over last year. Yields grew to record levels in all regions, especially in the Upper Midwest (27.8 percent) to 25.3 tons (fig. 2). NASS estimates national sugarbeet production at a record million tons. Production grew relative to last year in all regions by more than 10 percent (fig. 3). Production in the Upper Midwest at million (up 30.4 percent from last year) was a record. The beet processors forecast of FY 2007 beet sugar production at million STRV indicates sugar recovery per harvested acre of STRV, which exceeds last year s record level of STRV by 8.7 percent. Table 1 shows an efficiency measure of the U.S. beet sugar industry from the 1992/93 crop year through 2005/06 (the 2006/07 figures are projections). The measure is the ratio of the September/August crop year sugar recovery to the NASS estimate of sucrose content. The higher the rate, the higher the extraction of sucrose Figure 2 Sugarbeet crop yields, crop years 2002/ /07 Tons/acre Great Lakes Upper Midwest Great Plains Far West Source: "Crop Production, " NASS, USDA. 2002/ / / / /07 4

5 Table 1--U.S. sugarbeet crop, beet sugar production, sucrose content, and recovery Sept./Aug. Sugarbeet Crop year (Sep/Aug) Crop year Sucrose Recovery crop year production beet sugar beet recovery content of efficiency production rate beets -- tons percent ratio /93 29,143 4, /94 26,249 3, /95 31,853 4, /96 28,065 3, /97 26,680 4, /98 29,886 4, /99 32,499 4, /00 33,420 4, /01 32,541 4, /02 25,764 4, /03 27,707 4, /04 30,710 4, /05 30,021 4, /06 27,433 4, /07 (projected) 1/ 33,765 5, / Projected based on beet processors' forecast of sugar production in Jan WASDE and NASS sugarbeet forecast (Jan Crop Production ). Source: "Crop Production," NASS, USDA; "Sweetener Market Data," FSA, USDA. 5

6 Figure 3 Sugarbeet production, 2002/ /07 1,000 tons 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Lakes Upper Midwest Great Plains Far West Source: "Crop Production," NASS, USDA. 2002/ / / / /07 contained in the beet crop. The average rate for the period has been An ERS regression model suggests that the efficiency measure is a negative function of the size of the sugarbeet crop (elasticity coefficient = -0.11) and a positive function of the recovery rate (elasticity coefficient = 0.55). There is no trend in the measure over time. The model explains 90 percent of the observed variation in the efficiency measure from 1992/93 to 2005/06. Assuming the parameter values in the table for 2006/07, the model would predict an efficiency level of 0.864, which would imply a high sucrose level for the 2006/07 crop of percent. Cane Sugar Production Florida cane sugar millers project FY 2007 sugar production at million STRV. NASS forecasts Florida sugarcane acreage harvested for sugar at 386,000 acres, an increase of 10,000 acres over last year. NASS forecasts sugarcane yield at 34.9 tons, implying that sugarcane for sugar production will be at million tons, up million tons, or 14.1 percent, from last year s hurricane-damaged crop. Sugar yield per acre is forecast at 4.55 STRV, considerably better than last year s low, weather-affected level of 3.64 STRV (fig. 4). Louisiana s FY 2007 sugar production is projected at million STRV. Preliminary data indicate that production during October 2006 through early January 2007 was million STRV. Added to this amount is production of 55,000 STRV expected in September. NASS estimates Louisiana s sugarcane acreage harvested for sugar at 405,000 acres, a decrease of 15,000 acres from last year. NASS estimates sugarcane yield at 27.0 STRV, an improvement over last year s low 22.9 STRV but lower than what was forecast last month (28.0 STRV) because of freezes affecting the crop in December. Sugarcane for sugar is estimated at million tons. Sugar yield per acre is forecast at 3.30 STRV, the highest level since FY

7 Figure 4 Sugar yield for mainland sugar-producing States STRV 6 02/03 03/ /05 05/ / Florida Louisiana Texas Sources: WASDE and "Crop Production," NASS, USDA. FY 2007 sugar production in Texas is projected at 198,000 STRV, up about 22,500 STRV from FY NASS forecasts area harvested for sugar at 45,000 acres, an increase of 4,500 acres over last year, and it estimates sugarcane for sugar at million tons, about 12.9 percent more than produced in FY Implied sugar yield is relatively high at 4.40 STRV, indicating good sucrose development and an expected recovery of percent. Hawaiian cane sugar millers project FY 2007 sugar production at 248,000 STRV. Because Hawaiian production follows the calendar year, the bulk of the projected harvest season takes place in 2007, and no NASS sugarcane forecasts are available. More of Hawaii s future sugarcane is expected to be used as a feedstock for ethanol production for use on the islands. Trade Total sugar imports for entry in FY 2007 are forecast at million STRV. Sugar imports are made up of sugar tariff-rate quotas (TRQs, raw and refined), sugar allocated to Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), sugar under the Dominican Republic and Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA/DR), USDA sugar re-export programs, and nonprogram imports (table 2). The raw and refined sugar TRQs for FY 2007 were established on July 27, The raw sugar TRQ was set at million STRV. This amount is 250,000 STRV higher than the minimum access amount to which the United States is required to make available under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Uruguay Round Agreement. The USDA expects shortfall to be 75,000 STRV, and early entries between August 7 and September 30 (therefore recorded as entering in FY 2006) are estimated at 30,000 STRV. Refined TRQ sugar is projected at 62,831 STRV. Sugar allocated to Mexico under NAFTA is 275,575 STRV less the amount allocated to Mexico as part of the raw sugar TRQ (8,000 STRV), or 267,575 STRV. 7

8 Table 2--USDA estimate of sugar imports in FY 2007 Item Metric tons, raw value Short tons, raw value Raw sugar TRQ 1,343,992 1,481,482 Less early entries (Aug./Sept. 2006) -27,216-30,000 Less shortfall -68,040-75,000 Total raw sugar TRQ 1,248,737 1,376,482 Refined sugar TRQ Allocation to Canada (7/27/2006) 10,300 11,354 Allocation to Mexico (7/27/2006) 2,954 3,256 NAFTA allocation to Mexico 1/ 242, ,575 Less shortfall -90, ,000 Global 7,090 7,815 Specialty Base 1,656 1,825 Additional 35,000 38,581 Specialty total 36,656 40,406 Total refined sugar TRQ 209, ,406 CAFTA/DR TRQ 101, ,332 Total estimate TRQ entries 1,558,759 1,718,220 Re-export program imports 294, ,000 Sugar syrups (molasses, thick juice) 9,072 10,000 High-tier tariff sugar imports (mostly Mexico) 45,360 50,000 Total projected imports 1,908,029 2,103,220 1/ Mexico allocated 7,258 MTRV (8,000 STRV) under raw cane TRQ. Source: Import and Trade Support Program Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA. 8

9 NAFTA shortfall is forecast at 100,000 STRV due to higher sugar prices in Mexico (see section entitled Mexico Sugar and HFCS in this report). Sugar under CAFTA/DR is projected at 111,332 STRV. (This sugar enters on a calendar year basis and is not part of the July 27 announcement.) Total TRQ sugar is, therefore, projected at million STRV. High-tier tariff sugar, expected mostly from Mexico, is projected at 50,000 STRV, down considerably from the amount imported in FY 2006, 450,000 STRV. Sugar from imported syrups is projected at only 10,000 STRV, down from 56,000 STRV in FY These syrups are reported under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) (molasses imported for the commercial extraction of refined sugar) and under HTS (thick syrup). Other program sugar imports outside the sugar TRQ for FY 2007 are projected to total 325,000 STRV. Other USDA import programs include the Refined Sugar Reexport Program, the Sugar-Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol Program. The USDA projects FY 2007 sugar exports at 200,000 STRV, about the same level as last year. These exports mostly occur under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program, but also may include some sugar exported to Mexico outside the program. The USDA also projects that deliveries made to domestic food and beverage manufacturers under the Sugar-Containing Products Re-export Program at 125,000 STRV, about 19,000 STRV more than in FY 2006 Raw sugar TRQ imports totaled 304,583 metric tons, raw value (MTRV), or 335,742 STRV, through December 26, 2006 (table 3). This amount constitutes about 22.8 percent of the total raw sugar TRQ. Unlike most years, the raw sugar TRQ does not include shipping patterns. Normally Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and the Philippines can ship only up to 25 percent of each country s allocation during each quarter. Through December 26, 2006, Brazil shipped 21.4 percent; the Dominican Republic, 0.4 percent; and the Philippines, 0 percent. Shipping patterns normally applied to Argentina, Australia, Guatemala, and Peru allow them to ship up to 50 percent of the allocations in the first 6 months of the fiscal year. Through December 26, 2006, Argentina shipped 48.2 percent; Australia, 24.6 percent; Guatemala, 22.0 percent; and Peru, 42.7 percent. Through the first 3 months of the fiscal year, no country subject to shipping patterns has exceeded the limits that normally apply to them. Deliveries, Sugar-Containing Products, Ending Stocks Estimated FY 2006 Deliveries Deliveries for human consumption in FY 2006 are estimated at million STRV, which represents growth of 1.6 percent over FY 2005 (table 4). This growth occurred even though various sugar prices were much higher than normal due to disruptions in cane sugar supply (lower refining capacity for a portion of the year and lost sugarcane production, both due to hurricanes in Louisiana and Florida). The refined beet sugar price averaged 36.0 cents/pound (lb), about 45.3 percent higher than the average for the preceding 5 years. The raw sugar price, nearby New York No. 14 contract, averaged 22.6 cents/lb, about 7.8 percent higher than the 9

10 Table 3--U.S. raw sugar tariff-rate quota, allocations, quantities entered, fiscal year 2007 Portion of Quantity entered Remaining allocation Countries Allocation 12/26/2006 balance filled metric tons raw value (MTRV) Percent Argentina 55,112 26,591 28, % Australia 106,378 26,125 80, % Barbados 8, , % Belize 14, , % Bolivia 10,253 10, % Brazil 185,841 39, , % Colombia 30,760 23,915 6, % Congo 7, , % Cote D'Ivoire 19, , % Costa Rica 7, , % Dominican Republic 225, , % Ecuador 14, , % El Salvador 33,323 24,314 9, % Fiji 11,535 11, % Gabon 7, , % Guatemala 61,520 13,542 47, % Guyana 15,380 2,092 13, % Haiti 7, , % Honduras 12, , % India 10, , % Jamaica 14, , % Madagascar 7, , % Malawi 12, , % Mauritius 15, , % Mozambique 16,662 16, % Nicaragua 26,915 9,490 17, % Panama 37,168 19,631 17, % Papua New Guinea 7,258 7, % Paraguay 7, , % Peru 52,548 22,460 30, % Philippines 173, , % South Africa 29,478 28,460 1, % St. Kitts & Nevis 7, , % Swaziland 20,507 20, % Taiwan 15, , % Thailand 17, , % Trinidad-Tobago 8, , % Uruguay 7, , % Zimbabwe 15, , % Rounding % Total Raw Cane TRQ 1,336, ,583 1,032, % Refined Global 7,090 7, % Refined Canada 10,300 7,733 2, % Total Mexico (inc. NAFTA) 252, , % Refined Specialty 36,656 10,657 25, % Total Refined TRQ plus Mexico 307,000 25, , % CAFTA TRQs (Calendar year) El Salvador (3/24/2006) 1/ 24,000 24, % Nicaragua (4/01/2006) 22,000 21, % Honduras (4/01/2006) 8,000 8, % Guatemala (7/01/20066) 32,000 31, % Total CAFTA 86,000 85, % All TRQ Sugar 1,729, ,947 1,313, % 1/ Date of announcement. Source: USTR (allocations), U.S. Customs Service (quantity entered). 10

11 Table 4--Estimated U.S. sugar deliveries and sugar in traded sugar-containing products 1/ Fiscal year Population Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-June July-Sept FY total Per capita 1,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) Pounds (refined value) Domestic sugar deliveries for food and beverage use ,260 2,105 2,311 2,542 9, ,379 2,191 2,355 2,519 9, ,430 2,143 2,401 2,591 9, ,443 2,233 2,428 2,568 9, ,458 2,208 2,553 2,655 9, ,580 2,318 2,484 2,611 9, ,564 2,370 2,486 2,580 10, ,474 2,227 2,439 2,645 9, ,497 2,183 2,360 2,464 9, ,504 2,286 2,368 2,520 9, ,547 2,335 2,471 2,666 10, ,571 2,436 2,487 2,690 10, Estimated sugar in imported sugar-containing products , , , ,344 Estimated sugar in exported sugar-containing products Estimated sugar in USDA sugar-containing product re-export program Estimated sugar deliveries for domestic consumption (adjusted for trade in sugar-containing products) ,299 2,132 2,343 2,590 9, ,402 2,211 2,390 2,558 9, ,461 2,213 2,439 2,656 9, ,480 2,281 2,500 2,662 9, ,536 2,311 2,651 2,755 10, ,658 2,396 2,576 2,697 10, ,632 2,450 2,580 2,697 10, ,599 2,346 2,580 2,811 10, ,637 2,330 2,534 2,656 10, ,655 2,428 2,555 2,726 10, ,714 2,493 2,646 2,877 10, ,743 2,631 2,719 2,920 11, / Includes Puerto Rico. Source: "Sweetener Market Data," FSA, USDA (deliveries data); Sugar in traded products: Calculations by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of Census. 11

12 average for the preceding 5 years. The retail sugar price averaged 48.0 cents/lb, about 11.7 percent higher. A high proportion of FY 2006 deliveries were made by entities that do not report deliveries to the USDA. Normally, this directly imported sugar represents less than 1 percent of total deliveries but was estimated at about 6 percent of total deliveries in FY 2006, i.e., 615,156 STRV (fig. 5). This amount was high because of the large size of the FY 2006 refined sugar TRQ and large level of NAFTA hightier tariff imports, both of which augmented supplies diminished by the hurricanes (fig. 6). This directly imported sugar was recorded as a delivery in the month in which it was imported. There is no way of determining whether a high proportion of this sugar was held in stocks before being used, which raises the possibility that some of what was presumed delivered in FY 2006 may not be or have been delivered until FY Sugar-Containing Product Imports and Exports Imports of sugar-containing products, estimated at million STRV, contributed to increased domestic sugar consumption. After taking into account exports of sugar-containing products, per capita sugar deliveries for the United States and Puerto Rico are calculated at a record 68.1 pounds, which is 5.1 pounds higher than the per capita deliveries based on domestic sugar deliveries alone (top panel, table 4). Sugar in traded products is more closely examined in table 5. Sugar in each import category grew except for the smallest category of cereal and bakers preparations. Overall, total sugar in imported products grew 11.5 percent relative to that of FY Although seemingly large, much of the growth can be attributed to increased imports of vanilla-flavored sugar from Mexico, recorded under HTS codes and (fig. 7). Vanilla-flavored sugar enters duty-free under NAFTA. Sugar in these imports is estimated by ERS at 106,777 short tons. Without counting vanilla-flavored sugar, sugar in imported products increased by only 2 percent. Vanilla-flavored sugar imports likely arose because the cost of mixing sugar with vanilla was less than the cost of the NAFTA high-tier tariff on sugar in 2006 (3.02 cents/lb for raw sugar and 3.20 cents/lb for refined sugar). With the sugar tariff falling by half in 2007, vanilla-flavored sugar imports are expected to become insignificant. Projected FY 2007 Deliveries Deliveries for food and beverage use for FY 2007 are projected at million STRV. Figure 8 shows monthly deliveries for FY 2006 and an ERS projection of monthly deliveries for FY 2007, along with actual deliveries for October and November 2006 (the first 2 months of FY 2007). Actual FY 2007 deliveries through November trail the projected total by 95,500 STRV, or by 5.3 percent. Deliveries in each month were less than predicted. Although it is still early in FY 2007 (at least in terms of available data), deliveries could be off because directly imported sugar from the late months of FY 2006 was being delivered in the early months of FY 2007, therefore causing recorded deliveries to be less than expected. 12

13 Figure 5 Sugar deliveries for human consumption, monthly, by source, FY ,000 STRV 1,200 1, Imports to non-reporters Cane processors and refiners Beet processors OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Source: Sweetener Market Data, FSA, USDA. Figure 6 Refined sugar tariff-rate quota--including NAFTA, quantity entered, shortfall, and high-tier tariff sugar imports, FY Metric tons, raw value 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , ,000 TRQ shortfall High-tier tariff imports TRQ quantity entered 400, ,000 0 FY / Projected. FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY / Source: WASDE, USDA; U.S. Customs Service. 13 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248/February 5, 2007

14 Table 5--Estimated sugar in U.S. product imports and exports, FY Fiscal Cocoa Cereal Bread, Total sugar Total sugar Net sugar Year Sugar and Cocoa and Bakers Pastry, Cakes, Misc. Edible Carbonated in imported in exported inflow in Confectionery Preparations Preparations etc. Preparations Soft Drinks products products products 1,000 short tons FY ,461 62,179 6,476 29,086 70,897 16, , ,577 75,103 FY ,049 69,103 5,423 39,403 25,528 22, , ,557 21,743 FY ,241 68,571 5,501 43,248 54,029 25, , ,570 40,432 FY ,627 69,334 7,807 47,101 66,464 31, , ,219 12,120 FY ,612 90,479 11,984 61,443 68,376 38, , ,105 45,271 FY ,737 99,282 18,627 70,896 84,716 39, , , ,859 FY , ,952 19,993 83, ,400 46, , , ,975 FY , ,841 20,006 96, ,082 56, , , ,025 FY , ,808 18, , ,892 63, , , ,124 FY , ,916 19, , ,362 69, , , ,443 FY , ,826 22, , ,215 81, , , ,394 FY , ,342 25, , ,896 92,542 1,046, , ,321 FY , ,877 25, , , ,133 1,126, , ,296 FY , ,966 25, , , ,238 1,256, , ,948 Source: Calculations by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of Census. 14

15 Figure 7 Sugar in product imports under HTS chapter 17: Sugar confectionery and flavored sugar Short tons 600, , , ,000 Vanilla-flavored sugar Sugar confectionery 200, ,000 0 FY1993 FY1995 FY1997 FY1999 FY2001 FY2003 FY2005 Sources: Calculations by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Divison, Bureau of Census. Another factor worth considering is the effect of flavored sugar imports on the FY 2007 sugar deliveries projections. If ERS performed the same sort of times-series analysis that it did to produce the projections in figure 8 but included rather than excluded flavored sugar imports, the deliveries projection would very likely be higher. Figure 9 compares sugar deliveries for human consumption, excluding and including flavored sugar, with actual data for FY and the projection for FY The projection for FY 2007 sugar deliveries with flavored sugar is more than 100,000 STRV greater than the projection without flavored sugar: million STRV compared with million STRV. (Note that the ERS deliveries projection exceeds the WASDE projection by 25,655 STRV.) If imports of flavored sugar drop to insignificant levels as argued above, the USDA sugar deliveries projection ( million STRV) could be understated. Even so, sugar deliveries to date do not yet make the argument for an increase convincing. Ending Stocks Ending year stocks for FY 2006 are estimated at million STRV, for an ending year stocks-to-use ratio of 16.2 percent. Figure 10 shows sugar stocks by holder for FY 2002 through FY 2006, and figure 11 shows the percentage distribution of stocks among the holders, excluding the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Combined cane sugar processors and refiners stock holdings have averaged around 60 percent of the total, with beet processors holding 40 percent. The last two fiscal years have seen low sugar holdings by sugarcane processors and greater holdings, especially in FY 2006, by sugar refiners. Refined cane sugar held by refiners constituted over 30 percent of total sugar stocks in FY Ending year stocks for FY 2007 are projected at million STRV, implying an ending year stocks-to-use ratio of 17.0 percent. 15

16 Figure 8 Sugar deliveries for human consumption, monthly, FY 2006 and FY 2007 (projected and actual through November) 1,000 STRV 1, / /07 projected 2006/07 actual OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Sources: Sweetener Market Data, FSA,USDA; projections by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS. Figure 9 Deliveries of sugar for human food and beverage use--with and without flavored sugar imports STRV 10,600,000 10,400,000 10,200,000 10,000,000 9,800,000 9,600,000 9,400,000 Sugar incl. sugar in flavored sugar imports 9,200, / 1/ Projected Sources: Sweetener and Market Data, FSA, USDA; and projections and sugar-containing product data: Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of Census. 16 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248/February 5, 2007

17 Figure 10 Ending fiscal year sugar stocks, by holder, FY ,000 STRV Beet Cane Refiner: raw processors processors sugar Source: Sweetener Market Data, FSA, USDA. Refiner: refined sugar CCC Figure 11 Distribution of ending fiscal year sugar stockholding, FY Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Refiner: refined sugar Refiner: raw sugar Cane processors Beet processors Source: Sweetener Market Data, FSA, USDA. 17 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248//February 5, 2007

18 Prices Sugar prices have been in decline since the middle of The New York nearby No. 14 price averaged cents/lb in December 2006, down from the June- August average of cents/lb. A combination of lower world raw sugar prices and a large FY 2007 raw sugar TRQ has contributed to the decline. The Midwest refined beet sugar price, published in Milling and Baking News, has been declining. The low end of the range for the Midwest spot price averaged cents/lb for December 2006, down from the summer average of cents/lb. Figure 12 shows five indices of U.S. sugar prices since August 2005: nearby No. 14 NY raw price, the refined beet sugar spot price, Producer Price Indices (PPIs) for refined beet and cane sugar, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sugar and sweets. The raw sugar index is the No. 14 NY nearby relative to the refined beet sugar price in August The four other refined price indices are defined relative to their own values in August Not unexpectedly, the refined beet sugar spot price has shown the greatest volatility as it represents a thinner market of sugar not sold forward. The PPIs more accurately represent the trends in the return to processors and refiners than do spot prices. Because they include returns from forward-sold sugar, the PPIs growth up to mid-2006 and decline after mid-2006 has been more muted than the return on spot sales. These indices are expected to decline as the effect of the large sugarbeet harvest and large quantities of imported sugar (TRQ sugar above WTO minimum access levels not subject to shipping patterns) make their presence felt. The CPI for sugar and sweets shows only a very modest 0.6-percent decline since August. Figure 12 Relative U.S. sugar prices, Aug Dec Refined: Aug. 05=100; raw: Aug 05= M&B spot Ref. beet PPI Ref. cane PPI Sugar and sweet CPI 70 No Aug.05 Oct.05 Dec.05 Feb.06 Apr.06 Jun.06 Aug.06 Oct.06 Dec.06 Sources: New York Board of Trade; Milling and Baking News, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 18

19 Marketing Allotments On July 27, 2006, the USDA established the FY 2007 Overall Allotment Quantity (OAQ) at million STRV. As set out in the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Act), allocations to beet processors were set at million STRV and to raw cane sugar processors at million STRV. At the time, cane sugar production was expected to fall short of its allocation by 375,000 STRV. This amount was, therefore, reassigned to imports. Although imports for consumption are projected at above million STRV, allotments are not suspended because the additional imports are needed to meet the OAQ due to the expected low level of domestic cane sugar production. Authority for the operation of marketing allotments was established in the 2002 Farm Act. The rationale for allotments was linked to the 2002 Farm Act requirement that the USDA, to the maximum extent possible, operate the U.S. sugar loan program at no cost to the Federal Government. This provision meant that USDA was to operate the program in order to avoid the forfeiture of sugar to the CCC. In order to discourage forfeiture of nonrecourse loans, the sugar price at the time of loan repayment must be high enough to cover the loan principal plus interest expenses and other costs. During the course of the marketing year, the USDA is required to adjust allotment quantities to discourage the forfeiture of sugar to CCC. Table 6 shows minimum prices to discourage loan forfeiture for raw cane sugar and refined beet sugar in U.S. producing regions. 19

20 Table 6--Calculation of minimum sugar prices to discourage forfeiture, 2006/07 crop Calculation of Minimum Raw Sugar Price to Discourage Forfeiture, 2006 Crop If the borrower redeems the loan, would have to pay the following costs: State Item Florida Hawaii Louisiana Texas Cents per pound Loan Rate Cost of loan redemption and marketing: Interest expense 1/ Transportation costs Location discounts Minimum price to discourage forfeiture: Calculation of Minimum Beet Sugar Price to Discourage Forfeiture, 2006 Crop If the borrower redeems the loan, would have to pay the following costs: Region Item Minnesota and Colorado, Nebraska, Western North Michigan and eastern North and southeastern Dakota, Montana, Oregon and Ohio Dakota Wyoming northwest Wyoming Idaho California Cents per pound Loan Rate Cost of loan redemption and marketing: Interest expense Cash Discount (2%) Minimum price to discourage forfeiture: / CCC Interest rate as of 10/1/06 =0.06 Source: Dairy and Sweeteners Analysis, FSA, USDA. 20

21 Mexican Sugar and HFCS Long-Term Projections The USDA prepared sugar projections for both the United States and Mexico in November and December The Mexican supply and utilization projections for the 2006/07 marketing year are the same as published by the USDA s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in November Production is forecast at 5.65 million MTRV, and consumption for food and beverages is forecast at 5.2 million MTRV. Exports are forecast at 320,000 MTRV and almost all exported sugar is expected to be shipped to the United States. Consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in 2006/07 is projected at 750,000 metric tons (mt), dry weight. It is assumed that the beverage industry consumes about 82 percent, or 615,000 mt of that amount. HFCS is estimated to make up slightly over 30 percent of total caloric sweeteners demanded by the Mexican beverage industry. Last year s baseline assumed that the 20-percent consumption tax on beverages that use HFCS would be in place during the entire projections period. It assumed also that certain bottlers who had received judicial waivers (amparos) from the tax would continue to use HFCS because of its lower cost relative to domestically produced sugar. HFCS consumption was therefore forecast to grow at the same rate as overall sweetener demand with the proportion of HFCS use in beverage and food industries remaining constant during the entire projections period. On July 27, 2006, the United States and Mexico announced an agreement that resolves disputes related to each Nation s interpretation of NAFTA sweetener provisions. Effective on January 1, 2008, no duties or quantitative restraints will be placed on sugar or HFCS trade between the two countries. Mexico s over-quota tariff on U.S. sugar will be eliminated on January 1, 2008, as required by NAFTA, thus introducing the possibility of two-way sugar trade between the two countries. Also, on July 3, 2006, the United States and Mexico submitted a joint letter to the WTO Dispute Settlement Body stating that both countries had accepted in principal the elimination of Mexico s consumption tax on beverages that use any sweetener other than Mexican-produced sugar. The Secretariat of Budget and Treasury announced in the Diario Oficial (Federal Register), on December 27, 2006, several amendments, additions and derogations to the Law on Special Taxes of Production and Services, including the revoking of the 20-percent tax on beverages that used sweeteners other than sugar. The Mexican Senate voted down all taxes on soda, including the 20-percent tax on HFCS, in a final budget bill. The USDA sugar projections recognizes that use of HFCS by Mexico s beverage industry will likely increase beyond current levels, which implies a higher exportable surplus of sugar from Mexico. The projection process recognized that several outcomes based on the level of HFCS use in Mexico are possible. In all, five cases were considered: two assuming low use (HFCS use in beverage industry equaling 10 percent of total use and equaling the same share as projected in 2007 (about 30 percent)); one case assuming medium use (50 percent share); and two cases assuming high use (75 percent share and 97 percent share, the same as in the United States). Table 7 shows different sweetener consumption patterns for three of the cases: the medium use (50 percent HFCS share); low use (same proportionate use as 2006/07); and high use (75 percent HFCS share). In all the cases, overall sweetener consumption is the same and is a function of population growth and real per capita 21

22 Table 7--Sweetener consumption projections for Mexico Baseline assumptions Year Per capita Total HFCS share of beverage ind. HFCS share of beverage ind. HFCS share of beverage ind. sweetener sweetener sweetener demand = 50% sweetener demand = same as 2007 sweetener demand = 75% Population consumption 1/ consumption HFCS Sugar HFCS Sugar HFCS Sugar millions kilograms 1,000 metric tons 2/ ,620 1,060 4, ,860 1,521 4, ,733 1,081 4, ,963 1,551 4, ,847 1,103 4, ,068 1,582 4, ,964 1,125 4, ,174 1,614 4, ,082 1,147 4, ,283 1,646 4, ,202 1,170 5, ,393 1,678 4, ,324 1,193 5, ,504 1,711 4, ,447 1,216 5, ,618 1,745 4, ,572 1,239 5, ,733 1,779 4, ,699 1,263 5, ,849 1,813 4, ,827 1,287 5, ,968 1,847 4, ,957 1,312 5, ,087 1,883 5, ,088 1,337 5, ,209 1,918 5,170 1/ Income elasticity = / HFCS -- dry weight; sugar -- refined value. Source: Projections by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS. 22

23 growth of gross domestic product (GDP). Sugar consumption projections differ widely for the three cases. For the medium case, sugar consumption in 2019/20 is million mt, refined value (6.154 million MTRV). In the low-use case, sugar consumption in 2015 is projected higher by 458,000 mt (490,000 MTRV); in the high-use case, it is projected lower by 581,000 mt (621,500 MTRV). Long-term projection and scenario outcomes are achieved by requiring that refined sugar prices be equalized across Mexico and the United States through sugar export adjustments 1. Table 8 shows results for production, supply, and distribution for sugar in Mexico that correspond to each of the three cases. In all cases, exports start high but decrease over the projections period (fig. 13). This pattern is a result of Mexican sugar consumption increasing at a faster rate than production. Average yearly decreases range between 44,000 and 63,000 MTRV. For the baseline solution, exports are 15.5 percent of production in 2007/08 and decrease to 5.5 percent in 2019/20. For the low-hfcs-use case, exports are only 9.3 percent of production at the beginning, and Mexico is predicted to be a sugar net importer by 2019/20. The case of high use of HFCS implies 26.7 percent of production is exported at the beginning and 12.3 percent at the end. In the long-term projection, real estandar and refinado prices increase only about 7.0 percent over the course of the projections period (fig. 14). Real prices increase the most, about 13.0 percent, when HFCS use is the least. High domestic demand though more sugar being used in beverage manufacturing has a stronger effect than does any import demand pull effect from the United States. In the case where HFCS use is high, there is no change in real prices over the entire projections period. The heavy influx of imports into the U.S. market implies both raw and refined U.S. sugar prices at minimum price support levels. In the long-term projection, Mexican sugar production increases 12.7 percent between 2007/08 and 2019/20. Comparison with the case of high HFCS use, 10.8 percent corresponding growth at constant real prices, indicates that trend growth in productivity is responsible for most of the growth in production. Higher prices account for only about 15 percent of the production growth in the long-term projection. 1 Sugar prices in each country are a function of ending stock ratios. In Mexico, the ratio is ending stocks as a proportion of human consumption; and in the United States, the ratio is ending stocks as a proportion of total use. If the price of refined sugar is higher in the United States than in Mexico, more sugar from Mexican stocks is exported to the United States. Less sugar in Mexico implies a Mexican price increase, and more sugar in the United States implies either a lower U.S. price or more stocks held by the CCC if the U.S. refined price is at the U.S. price support level. The export flow achieves equilibrium when refined prices in the two countries are equal. In the case where the U.S. price is initially below the Mexican price, fewer exports are required to reach the equilibrium. 23

24 Table 8--Mexico sugar projections and alternative outcomes Raw equivalent - 1,000 metric tons Basecase - assumes that HFCS share of beverage sweetener demand = 50 percent Beginning Stocks 2,045 1,515 1,495 1,452 1,481 1,394 1,250 1,178 1,145 1,137 1,136 1,132 1,118 1,085 Sugar Production 5,604 5,650 5,725 5,781 5,836 5,861 5,963 6,052 6,137 6,213 6,279 6,333 6,380 6,420 Imports Supply 7,814 7,365 7,220 7,232 7,317 7,255 7,214 7,230 7,282 7,350 7,415 7,466 7,497 7,505 Disappearance 5,579 5,550 4,879 4,977 5,077 5,178 5,281 5,385 5,491 5,598 5,706 5,816 5,927 6,040 Consumption 5,200 5,200 4,879 4,977 5,077 5,178 5,281 5,385 5,491 5,598 5,706 5,816 5,927 6,040 Other Disappearance Exports Ending Stocks 1,515 1,495 1,452 1,481 1,394 1,250 1,178 1,145 1,137 1,136 1,132 1,118 1,085 1,040 High Fructose Corn Syrup ,060 1,081 1,103 1,125 1,147 1,170 1,193 1,216 1,239 1,263 1,287 1,312 Estandar real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) Refinado real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) Low export scenario - assumes that HFCS share of beverage sweetener demand = same percentage as in 2007 Beginning Stocks 2,045 1,515 1,495 1,490 1,267 1, Sugar Production 5,604 5,650 5,725 5,783 5,854 5,903 6,029 6,143 6,251 6,343 6,420 6,482 6,535 6,579 Imports Supply 7,814 7,365 7,220 7,273 7,122 6,917 6,851 6,872 6,924 6,990 7,055 7,107 7,142 7,162 Disappearance 5,579 5,550 5,200 5,310 5,422 5,537 5,652 5,770 5,890 6,011 6,134 6,259 6,385 6,513 Consumption 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,310 5,422 5,537 5,652 5,770 5,890 6,011 6,134 6,259 6,385 6,513 Other Disappearance Exports Ending Stocks 1,515 1,495 1,490 1,267 1, High Fructose Corn Syrup Estandar real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) Refinado real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) High export scenario - assumes that HFCS share of beverage sweetener demand = 75 percent Beginning Stocks 2,045 1,515 1,495 1,305 1,331 1,358 1,385 1,423 1,452 1,480 1,509 1,538 1,568 1,598 Sugar Production 5,604 5,650 5,725 5,781 5,836 5,855 5,944 6,017 6,086 6,146 6,200 6,246 6,285 6,317 Imports Supply 7,814 7,365 7,220 7,085 7,167 7,213 7,329 7,440 7,537 7,626 7,709 7,784 7,853 7,915 Disappearance 5,579 5,550 4,386 4,474 4,564 4,655 4,747 4,841 4,936 5,032 5,129 5,228 5,328 5,429 Consumption 5,200 5,200 4,386 4,474 4,564 4,655 4,747 4,841 4,936 5,032 5,129 5,228 5,328 5,429 Other Disappearance Exports ,529 1,280 1,246 1,173 1,158 1,148 1,122 1,086 1, Ending Stocks 1,515 1,495 1,305 1,331 1,358 1,385 1,423 1,452 1,480 1,509 1,538 1,568 1,598 1,629 High Fructose Corn Syrup ,521 1,551 1,582 1,614 1,646 1,678 1,711 1,745 1,779 1,813 1,847 1,883 Estandar real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) Refinado real price (2000 pesos/50 kg) Source: Projected by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS. 24

25 Figure 13 Exportable sugar surplus in Mexico as funtion of HFCS share of beverage industry sweetener demand 1,000 mt, raw value HFCS share=50% HFCS share=same as HFCS share=75% Sources: Calculations by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of Census. Figure 14 Estandar real sugar price projections in Mexico, as function of HFCS share of beverage industry sweetener demand Real 2000 pesos/50kg HFCS share=same as HFCS share=50% HFCS share=75% Sources: Calculations by Sugar and Sweeteners Team, MTED, ERS, based on HS Import Data, Foreign Trade Division, Bureau of Census. 25 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248/February 5, 2007

26 Mexico Production, Supply, and Disappearance The USDA projects Mexican 2006/07 production at million MTRV. This projection assumes about the same area harvested as last year and normal weather conditions. Harvesting progress has lagged considerably behind past seasons (fig. 15). Through January 13, 2007, only 911,050 metric tons of sugar had been produced from 9,454,172 metric tons of harvested sugarcane. Recovery is calculated at 9.64 percent, considerably below recent harvest seasons (fig. 16). Although it is still early in a season that can last until June, the pace of harvesting progress needs to quicken if the production forecast is to be met. Trade data released by the Mexican Government s Secretary of Economy (SE) show sugar imports for October 2005 through September 2006 at 226,434 metric tons, or 241,722 MTRV, with almost all coming from the United States (fig. 17). This amount is about 77,000 MTRV more than estimated in FAS s Production, Supply, and Disappearance (PSD) published in November Most of this sugar entered Mexico through the USDA s Refined Sugar Re-export Program. Excluding flavored sugar under HS , sugar exports reported by the SE for 2005/06 are estimated at 817,004 metric tons, or 871,103 MTRV. More than 99 percent of this sugar was shipped to the United States (fig. 18). Although Mexico includes flavored sugar exports in total sugar exports, the United States does not classify it as sugar. This product enters the United States under corresponding HTS codes and These products do not qualify as sugar under NAFTA and are considered to be sugar-containing products (SCPs). As sugar-containing products, they are exempt from tariffs and quantitative restrictions that apply to sugar imports from Mexico. The SE data source shows flavored sugar exports at 67,500 metric tons, raw value equivalent. Figure 15 Sugar produced in Mexico through the second week of January Metric tons 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , / / / / /2006 Source: Comite de la Agroindustria Azucarera (Coaazucar). 26

27 Figure 16 Intra-seasonal, cumulative sugar recovery rates in Mexico Percentage (sugar, tel quel/sugarcane) / / / / Campaign week Source: Comite de la Agroindustria Azucarera (Coaazucar). Mexican sugar exports for 2006/07 are forecast by the USDA s Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC) for sugar at 230,000 MTRV. This projection is 90,000 MTRV less than the corresponding November 2006 PSD forecast. The decrease is attributable to lower returns in the U.S. market compared with corresponding domestic returns. Figure 19 shows that Mexican refined sugar prices continue to be above the U.S refined beet sugar spot price 35.5 cents/lb for refinado (Mexico City) compared with 26.1 cents/lb (U.S. Midwest) in December. Also, the December average for estandar sugar was cents/lb (Mexico City) compared with the nearby New York No.14 futures price for raw sugar in December at cents/lb (fig.20). Mexican sugar consumption for 2005/06 is estimated at 5.2 million MTRV. No growth is yet expected in 2006/07, with the projection flat at 5.2 million MTRV. The ICEC expects consumption of HFCS to increase 100,000 mt, dry weight from 650,000 mt in 2005/06 to 750,000 mt in 2006/07. High corn costs due to high demand for corn for ethanol make this year s projection less certain, however. Like last year, the United States has been granted zero duty access for 250,000 mt, dry weight for HFCS exports to Mexico. Table 9 details U.S. HFCS and crystalline fructose exports for 2005/06 and earlier years back to 1995/96. Exports of HFCS-55 and above grew from 41,000 mt in 2004/05 to over 200,000 mt in 2005/06. The United States provided about 86 percent of Mexico s HFCS-55 imports. Domestic HFCS production is estimated by the ICEC in the neighborhood of 400,000 mt. 27

28 Figure 17 Mexico sugar imports, 1995/ /06 Metric tons 350, , ,000 Other countries United States 200, , ,000 50, / / / / / /06 Source: Secretary of Economy, Government of Mexico. Figure 18 Mexico sugar exports, 1995/ /06 Metric tons 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 Other countries Flavored sugar United States / / / / / /06 Source: Secretary of Economy, Government of Mexico. 28 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248/February 5, 2007

29 Figure 19 Sugar prices: Mexican refinado, U.S. refined, world white Cents/lb Refinado 40 U.S. Refined 35 World White Oct. Feb. June Oct. Feb. June Oct. Sources: Camara Nacional de las Industrias Azucarera Y Alcholera (CNIAA), London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange, (LIFFE), Milling and Baking News. Figure 20 Sugar prices: Mexican estandar, U.S. raw, world raw Cents/lb Estandar (standard) U.S. raw World raw 0 Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec. Sources: Camara Nacional de las Industrias Azucarera Y Alcoholera (CNIAA), New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). 29 Sugar and SweetenersOutlook/SSS-248/February 5, 2007

30 Table 9--Mexico imports of high fructose corn syrup imports from the United States and the world Fiscal year HFCS-42 HFCS-55 and above Crystalline fructose Total metric tons, dry basis United States ,835 69, , , ,424 3, , , ,067 4, , , ,252 5, , , ,380 8, , , ,347 7, , ,432 70,862 10,742 84, ,392 4,088 5,842 11, ,454 3,981 5,149 10, ,181 40,699 10,028 74, , ,700 9, ,602 World ,837 69, , , ,424 3, , , ,067 4, , , ,252 5, , , ,936 8, , , ,281 7, , ,432 75,890 10,745 89, ,395 4,088 6,102 11, ,569 3,982 5,172 10, ,184 89,383 10, , , ,526 9, ,440 Source: Secretary of Economy, Government of Mexico. 30

31 Contacts and Links Contact Information Stephen Haley, (202) , Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS notification service at to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Printed copies can be purchased from the USDA Order Desk by calling (specify the issue number). Data Tables from the Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook are available in the Sugar and Sweeteners Briefing Room at They contain the latest data and historical information on the production, use, prices, imports, and exports of sugar and sweeteners. Related Websites WASDE documented=1194 Sugar Briefing Room, Notification Readers of ERS outlook reports have two ways they can receive an notice about release of reports and associated data. Receive timely notification (soon after the report is posted on the web) via USDA s Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (which is housed at Cornell University s Mann Library). Go to annusda/about service.do and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board products. Receive weekly notification (on Friday afternoon) via the ERS website. Go to and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS outlook reports, Amber Waves magazine, and other reports and data products on specific topics. ERS also offers RSS (really simple syndication) feeds for all ERS products. Go to to get started. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C or call (800) (voice) or (202) (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 31

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