JULY 2017 ISSUE 32. In July 2017, the national average cost of a standard food basket 1 (group of essential food commodities) was SYP 32,770.

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Leonard Lucas
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SYRIA COUNTRY OFFICE KET PRICE WATCH BULLETIN Y 217 ISSUE 32 Highlights: A: Standard Food Basket Chart 1: Min. vs. Max.

Poor market functionality and low food supply resulted in three percent increase in the total cost of standard food basket in rural Deir -ezzor markets.

Slight increase in ToT of sheep price and casual labours daily wage against wheat flour price during reporting month. For further information please contact : Ahmad Shah : Ahmadshah.Shahi@wfp.

This shows downward trends of one percent compared to last month, nine percent compared to six months ago and six percent compared to corresponding month last year.

1 SYRIA COUNTRY OFFICE KET PRICE WATCH BULLETIN Y 217 ISSUE 32 Highlights: A: Standard Food Basket Chart 1: Min. vs. Max. National Cost of Food Basket (in ) In Ar-Raqqa city bread prices are higher by more than 1 percent for public and commercial compared to average prices in Damascus market. Poor market functionality and low food supply resulted in three percent increase in the total cost of standard food basket in rural Deir -ezzor markets. In besieged Deir-ez-Zor market the average retail prices are higher by 19 percent for rice and 15 percent for bulgur compared to average prices of these commodities in Damascus markets. Slight increase in ToT of sheep price and casual labours daily wage against wheat flour price during reporting month. For further information please contact : Ahmad Shah : Ahmadshah.Shahi@wfp.org Dima Alhumsi : Dima.Alhumsi@wfp.org In July 217, the national average cost of a standard food basket 1 (group of essential food commodities) was 32,77. This shows downward trends of one percent compared to last month, nine percent compared to six months ago and six percent compared to corresponding month last year. The market price data of July 217 indicates that the highest cost of food basket was in Deir-ez-Zor governorate at 57,55 while the lowest was recorded in Al -Hasakeh at 26,165. Max 1, Min 9, 8, 76,365 7, 6, 57,55 55, 5, 4, 36,25 32,768 32,962 26,163 27,61 3, 34,827 25,678 26,925 2, Month 1 Month 6 Months 12 Months Figure 1: Food Basket Cost and s (in ) Governorate Since December 216, gradual decline in food prices was observed in most of the monitored markets. The decreased was mainly noted in the prices of pulses, oil and sugar. However, in Deir-ez-Zor governorate an increase of four percent observed, compared to last month. This is inline with the escalated offensive in Ar Raqqa that cuts most of the supply routes to rural Deir-ez-Zor leading to low food supplies to markets and severe shortage in many commodities. 97, Aleppo Damascus Dar'a Deir-ez-Zor Hama Al-Hasakeh Homs Lattakia Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus As-Sweida Tartous Quneitra Idleb July ,95 29,59 27,415 57,55 31,92 26,165 29,6 29,975 41,275 28,85 32,735 31,165 28,19 35, 32,77 1 month 6 months 12 months s s 4% -3% -3% -6% -4% 2% -4-23% 23% -13% 3% 4% -9% 7% -25% 7% -37% 7% 3% -6% -24% 12% 4% 16% -6% Map 1: Location of markets monitored by WFP Consequently, food access of trapped populations in Ar-Raqqa city and rural Deir -ezzor has been negatively impacted. This may increase further the already dire food security situation of poor households who are unable to meet their minimum food requirements. In Eastern Ghouta food prices have slightly improved and the households have better access to nutritious and healthy food. 1.The cost of a standard basket of dry goods providing 1,93 kcal a day for a family of five during a month. The basket includes 37 kg of bread, 19 kg rice, 19 kg lentils, 5 kg of sugar, and 7 kg of vegetable oil. 1

BUNDLE IN BUNDLE IN Kg in in others Kg in in Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Kg in Kg in B: Retail s 1- Wheat Flour, Rice and Bulgur: The improved security situation in some besieged and hard -to-reach areas

2 BUNDLE IN BUNDLE IN Kg in in others Kg in in Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Kg in Kg in B: Retail s 1- Wheat Flour, Rice and Bulgur: The improved security situation in some besieged and hard -to-reach areas has positively impacted supply routes functionality leading to better food availability and prices in many markets across the country. During July, at national level one kg of wheat flour sold at 259, rice at 526 and bulgur at 297. Compared to June, prices of wheat flour and bulgur remained und while rice went up by one percent. Compared to six months ago level average prices decreased by three percent for wheat flour, five percent for rice and six percent for bulgur. However, compared to corresponding month of last year, prices have slightly increased by three percent for wheat flour, two percent for rice while bulgur remained the same. Chart 2: Wheat Flour Retail in NATIONAL Accessible Deir-ez-Zor Besieged Hard-To-Reach Chart 3: Retail s of Rice in 2, 2, 1, Deir-ez-Zor markets continue to record highest prices for wheat flour 39/kg, rice /kg and bulgur 7/kg. 1, 1, 1, On the other hand, the lowest prices were reported from Quneitra for wheat flour 25/kg, As-Sweida for rice 325/kg while Dar a recorded the lowest price for bulgur for /kg. During reporting month, the average retail price of rice was higher by 19 percent in hard-to-reach markets and 4 percent in besieged Deir -ez- Zor markets when compared to accessible markets average. Moreover, bulgur is 15 percent higher in besieged Deir -ez-zor markets compared to accessible markets average NATIONAL Accessible Besieged Hard-To-Reach Chart 4: Retail s of Bulgur in 1, 38 1, Food security situation continues to be challenging in Ar -Raqqa city and rural Deir-ez-Zor where market functionality has been negatively impacted by conflict Bread: Besieged Deir-ez-Zor NATIONAL Accessible Hard-To-Reach In July 217, the average nominal retail prices for public (subsidized) bread and commercial (shop) bread were 8/bundle and 135/ bundle, respectively. Market price monitoring data indicates relatively stable prices for both public and commercial bread compared to last month with less that one percent. Between January and July 217, the average retail prices of public bread went up by two percent while it declined by six percent for commercial bread. Chart 5: Retail s of Public Bread in ACC, HTR and BSG Markets in Year-on-year, public bread decreased by six percent while shop bread increased by three percent. 25 M A R M A R National Accessible Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Hard-To-Reach Across all main monitored markets, Idleb continued to record the highest price for public and commercial bread at 275/bundle and /bundle, respectively. Tartous market recorded the lowest price for commercial bread at 65/bundle. In Ar-Raqqa city market, the bread price was higher by 113 percent for public and 43 percent for commercial compared to average prices in accessible markets. In hard-to-reach markets the bread price was higher by 17 percent for public and 51 percent for commercial bread compared to accessible market average. Chart 6: Retail s of Shop Bread in ACC, HTR and BSG Markets in M A R M A R National Accessible Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Hard-To-Reach Source: WFP Field Offices 2

Bag of 25 kg in BUTANE CYLINDER IN IN OTHERS BUTANE CYLINDER IN IN BESIEGED DEIR-EZ-ZOR /L OTHERS /L IN BESIEGED DEIR-EZ-ZOR 3 Diesel and cylinder of butane gas In July 217, the average price of

3 Bag of 25 kg in BUTANE CYLINDER IN IN OTHERS BUTANE CYLINDER IN IN BESIEGED DEIR-EZ-ZOR /L OTHERS /L IN BESIEGED DEIR-EZ-ZOR 3 Diesel and cylinder of butane gas In July 217, the average price of diesel was 335/L and 4,425 for a cylinder of butane gas. Between January and July 217, the average retail prices of diesel went up by one percent while a cylinder of butane gas decreased by five percent. Compared to July 216, prices went down by 14 percent for diesel and four percent for butane gas. During the reporting month, the highest price for diesel and butane gas was observed in Deir-ez-Zor markets at 1,12/L and 9,25, respectively. The lowest cost for diesel was reported from Al-Hasakeh, 95/L. Chart 7: Retail s of Diesel in , 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, The price of diesel was 5 times higher in besieged markets of Deir-ez-Zor compared to the national average NATIONAL Accessible Hard-To-Reach Besieged Deir-ez-Zor The average price of butane gas was higher by 18 percent in hard to reach markets and 171 percent in besieged markets of Deir-ez-Zor compared to national average level. Chart 8: Retail s of Butane Cylinder in Consequently, this will add a higher cost on transportation and will further exert extra pressure on food prices in besieged and hard to reach markets. C. Wholesale s of Main Cereal in Damascus Market During the reporting month, the average nominal wholesale price of cereal was 6,575/25 kg for wheat grain, 5,675/25 kg for bulgur and 11,/25 kg for rice. The wholesale prices remain stable compared to June 217 level. But, between January and July 217, significant decreases were recorded of 1 percent for rice, 21 percent for bulgur and 18 percent for wheat. Year-on-year, the wholesale price also declined by 14 percent for white rice, 18 percent for wheat grain and 2 percent for bulgur. 15, 14, 13, 1 1 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Chart 9: Wholesale s for Wheat, Bulgur and Rice in 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, NATIONAL Accessible Hard-To-Reach Besieged Deir-ez-Zor 26, 24, 2 2, 18, 16, 14, 1 1, 8, 6, 4, D. Food Supply to Markets 8, 7, 6, During July, poor food supply has been reported from rural Deir-ez-Zor and Ar-Raqqa city due to conflict that has severely disrupted supply routes to these markets. As a result, access to food has been negatively impacted in-line with declining food stocks in markets. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Wheat Bulgur Rice Following the cease-fire agreement in eastern Ghouta, food availability in markets has notably improved and many commercial trucks entered to the besieged community. However the prices are still high and considered to be unaffordable for many poor, besieged households that have poor and unstable income sources. Source: WFP Field Offices Markets continue to be functional with normal commercial flow in accessible areas including Damascus, Tartous, Lattakia, Hama and As-Sweida. 3

4 M A R M A R M A R USD/MT Kg wheat flour/sheep sale Kg wheat flour/day wage E. Terms of Trade (TOT): 2 Chart 1: Terms of Trade (TOT) between wage labour and wheat flour TOT between wage labour and wheat flour The national average daily wage rate during the reporting period was 1,7. The trends for purchasing power (measured by terms of trade) of casual labours remains weak across all monitored markets in the country. In July 217 on national average for a whole day of work a casual labour could only buy 6.6 kg of wheat flour/day, which represents a slight increase of three percent compared to June, 28 percent compared to six months ago and 29 percent compared to corresponding month last year NATIONAL Accessible Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Hard-To-Reach Chart 11: Terms of Trade (TOT) between sheep and wheat flour Key informants reported that despite the slight increase in daily wage rates, job opportunities remain limited and temporary, mainly in agriculture sectors. Moreover, the situation considered to be more challenging for female and child casual labours that their engagement in labouring market has significantly increased during conflict. 1, 1, 1, 1, TOT between sheep and wheat flour During July, the national average price of a two -year old male sheep was 114,135/head. This shows an increase of four percent compared to last month, 32 percent compared to six months ago and 27 percent compared to same month last year NATIONAL Accessible Besieged Deir-ez-Zor Hard-To-Reach Source: WFP Field Offices Chart 12: Trends in global wheat prices The national average TOT between a sheep and wheat flour was 441kg/sheep, which is higher by four percent compared to last month and 43 percent compared to the January 217 levels F. International Market s The FAO Food Index averaged 179 points in July 217, up by two percent compared to last month s average and ten percent compared to same month last year. The Cereal Index averaged 162 points in this month, up by five percent compared to June level and ten percent compared to corresponding month of last year. Chart 13: Trends of food and cereals price indices International Wheat In July 217, the wheat prices on local markets averaged USD 511/MT, which is still more than two times higher than the price of wheat in the international market (USD 22/MT) Food Index Cereals Index Data Source: and 2. The TOT are proxy indicators of the purchasing power of households that rely on livestock and/or casual labour as their ma in source of income for the purchase of cereals from local markets. TOT are important components of food security analysis. s in the terms of trade between wages/livestock and staple food commodities are indicative of the trends in purchasing power and the impact on the food security situation of households dependent on food purchases through income from daily wage labour and/or the sale of livestock. 4

5 Table 1. Market of Main Commodities in Syrian Pounds Bread Public (1.5 kg) Bread Shops (1.5 kg) Bulgur (kg) Butane Cylinder (1 kg) Cheese (kg) Chickpeas (kg) Key: 1M 6 M 1M 6 M 1M 6 M 1M 6 M Aleppo 11 (4.1) 5. Aleppo 1, Damascus Damascus 1, Dar'a Dar'a 1, Deir-ez-Zor Deir-ez-Zor 2, Idleb Idleb Hama 5 - (14.8) Hama 1, Al- Hasakeh Al- Hasakeh Homs Homs 1, Lattakia Lattakia 1,175 (2.1) 46.9 Quneitra 78 (2.3) 2.5 Quneitra 1, Ar-Raqqa Ar-Raqqa 1, Rural Damascus Rural Damascus 1,375 (1.8) 2.1 As-Sweida As-Sweida 1, Tartous Tartous 1, Aleppo (4.3) Aleppo 323 (2.3) 22.5 Damascus 15 - (3.) Damascus (2.4) 27.7 Dar'a Dar'a 288 (1.9) (17.1) Deir-ez-Zor Deir-ez-Zor 1, Idleb Idleb 27 - (25.5) Hama (34.9) Hama Al- Hasakeh Al- Hasakeh Homs 98 (1.9) (11.8) Homs Lattakia Lattakia Quneitra Quneitra (3.6) Ar-Raqqa Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus 88 - (31.3) Rural Damascus 338 (3.6) 15. As-Sweida As-Sweida 35 (6.7) 7.7 Tartous Tartous Aleppo (.7) Aleppo (6.5) Damascus (1.6) Damascus Dar'a - - Dar'a Deir-ez-Zor 7 (1.5) (4.1) Deir-ez-Zor (.4) Idleb Idleb (11.7) Hama 287 (1.7) (4.1) Hama Al- Hasakeh 229 (3.1) (42.4) Al- Hasakeh 25 - (18.8) Homs Homs (1.9) Lattakia Lattakia Quneitra Quneitra 235 (1.7) (4.) Ar-Raqqa Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus - (2.6) Rural Damascus (4.5) As-Sweida - - As-Sweida Tartous Tartous (.7) Aleppo 3,438 (1.7) (12.7) Aleppo Damascus 2,7 - (1.) Damascus Dar'a 5,65 (.9) 5. Dar'a - - Deir-ez-Zor 9, Deir-ez-Zor 813 (7.9) (22.9) Idleb 8, - 9. Idleb Hama 3,333 (2.1) (18.9) Hama Al- Hasakeh 2,675 (9.3) (.4) Al- Hasakeh (2.8) Homs 2,633 - (9.8) Homs Lattakia 3, (3.1) 12.2 Lattakia 35 (3.3) - Quneitra 6, Quneitra Ar-Raqqa 8, Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus 2, - (22.8) Rural Damascus As-Sweida 2,9 - (9.4) As-Sweida Tartous 3, - (6.6) Tartous Aleppo 1, (2.9) Aleppo Damascus 1, - (13.3) Damascus Dar'a 11.1 (18.4) Dar'a 15 (3.1) (12.5) Deir-ez-Zor 2, Deir-ez-Zor Idleb Idleb 1 - Hama 1,483 - (6.3) Hama Al- Hasakeh 1, -.7 Al- Hasakeh Homs 1, (1.1) Homs Lattakia 1, Lattakia 5 - (4.5) Quneitra (6.8) (9.6) Quneitra Ar-Raqqa 1, (3.3) 22.3 Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus 1,325 (1.8) (7.5) Rural Damascus As-Sweida 1, As-Sweida Tartous 1, Tartous 63 - (11.5) Aleppo Aleppo 464 (2.5) (11.2) Damascus Damascus (5.4) Dar'a Dar'a - 1. Deir-ez-Zor 1,5 - (.5) Deir-ez-Zor (41.3) Idleb (3.8) Idleb Hama Hama Al- Hasakeh (3.8) Al- Hasakeh 45 (5.3) (24.) Homs Homs 567 (3.) (4.1) Lattakia 775 (.6) 26.1 Lattakia 625 (2.3) (3.7) Quneitra 488 (5.).4 Quneitra 463 (3.1) (1.5) Ar-Raqqa (9.2) (2.3) Ar-Raqqa 738 (8.7) 3.8 Rural Damascus 813 (4.4) 41.5 Rural Damascus 575 (3.1) (2.4) As-Sweida As-Sweida Tartous Tartous (4.) - s increase above normal price fluctuation Normal Fluctuation decrease below normal price fluctuation Date (kg) Diesel (L) Fish (Sardine, canned) Fish (tuna, canned) Iodised salt (kg) Lentils (kg) 5

6 Meat (beef, kg) Oil (L) Parsley (packet) Pasta (kg) Rice (kg) Sheep 2Y old Male Sugar (kg) 1M 6 M 1M 6 M 1M 6 M 1M 6 M Aleppo 3,125 (1.3) (6.5) Aleppo 3, Damascus 4, Damascus 3, -.8 Dar'a 3, Dar'a 4, Deir-ez-Zor 9, Deir-ez-Zor 1, (5.2) Idleb 2,7 - (3.6) Idleb 3, Hama 3, Hama 3,767 - (1.6) Al- Hasakeh 3, Al- Hasakeh 3, Homs 4, Homs 3, Lattakia 4, Lattakia 3, Quneitra 3, Quneitra 3, - - Ar-Raqqa 2, Ar-Raqqa 4, Rural Damascus 4, Rural Damascus 3, As-Sweida 3, As-Sweida 3, Tartous 4, (2.4) 15.1 Tartous 2, (.7) - Aleppo 672 (4.7) (5.4) Aleppo 1,144 (.6) (7.8) Damascus Damascus Dar'a (.9) Dar'a Deir-ez-Zor 2,15 (3.) 2.5 Deir-ez-Zor 3,475 (2.9) 22.4 Idleb (3.8) Idleb Hama Hama 883 (1.9) (13.7) Al- Hasakeh 575 (4.2) (6.2) Al- Hasakeh 2.8 (14.) Homs 75 (1.1) 1.9 Homs 883 (8.4) (17.8) Lattakia 688 (3.3) (5.8) Lattakia (2.5) Quneitra Quneitra (2.2) (4.2) Ar-Raqqa 97 (5.5) 1.1 Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus 75 (1.6) (12.9) Rural Damascus As-Sweida As-Sweida Tartous Tartous Aleppo 4 (2.8) (55.5) Aleppo 135 (23.7) (45.1) Damascus 35 (2.7) (3.) Damascus 145 (24.8) (49.5) Dar'a Dar'a 88 (22.6) (65.) Deir-ez-Zor Deir-ez-Zor 1, Idleb Idleb - - Hama Hama (2.2) Al- Hasakeh 75 (15.7) (45.) Al- Hasakeh 175 (36.4) (3.) Homs Homs (32.1) Lattakia 5 (41.7) 21.3 Lattakia 1 (38.1) (51.2) Quneitra 28 (21.4) (26.8) Quneitra 15 (35.1) (35.) Ar-Raqqa 88 (7.4) (7.1) Ar-Raqqa 238 (15.) (41.5) Rural Damascus 4 (7.) (33.7) Rural Damascus 158 (26.1) (53.2) As-Sweida As-Sweida 125 (39.9) (56.4) Tartous 32 (42.) (29.5) Tartous 138 (21.4) (43.8) Aleppo Aleppo 1, Damascus - - Damascus 1, Dar'a Dar'a 1, Deir-ez-Zor 1, Deir-ez-Zor 1, Idleb 1 - Idleb Hama Hama Al- Hasakeh 27 (1.8) (15.6) Al- Hasakeh Homs Homs 1, Lattakia Lattakia Quneitra Quneitra 1, Ar-Raqqa Ar-Raqqa 1, Rural Damascus - (16.1) Rural Damascus 1, As-Sweida As-Sweida Tartous (6.1) Tartous 1, Aleppo (2.5) Aleppo 238 (.5) (5.2) Damascus Damascus Dar'a Dar'a Deir-ez-Zor 14.9 (23.) Deir-ez-Zor (2.6) Idleb Idleb Hama Hama 263 (3.5) 2.3 Al- Hasakeh 513 (1.1) (3.6) Al- Hasakeh 22 (2.) (13.1) Homs 498 (1.7) (1.3) Homs Lattakia - - Lattakia 248 (5.6) 4.9 Quneitra Quneitra Ar-Raqqa 75 (3.5) 25. Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus (2.4) Rural Damascus 268 (.9) (6.9) As-Sweida As-Sweida Tartous Tartous (.6) Aleppo 19, Aleppo Damascus 17, Damascus Dar'a 15, Dar'a - - Deir-ez-Zor N/A Deir-ez-Zor 16.1 (31.3) Idleb 78, -.6 Idleb 35 - Hama 183, Hama 593 (1.4) (.3) Al- Hasakeh 7, - (6.7) Al- Hasakeh (3.) Homs 111, Homs Lattakia 92, Lattakia 638 (5.4) (1.8) Quneitra 118, Quneitra Ar-Raqqa 6, Ar-Raqqa 738 (1.3) (5.8) Rural Damascus 15, Rural Damascus As-Sweida 86, As-Sweida Tartous 85, (4.9) 25.8 Tartous Aleppo 358 (.5) (9.5) Aleppo (1.7) Damascus 365 (4.6) (16.6) Damascus (12.2) Dar'a 363 (5.2) (17.) Dar'a Deir-ez-Zor 2, (4.2) Deir-ez-Zor 925 (1.7) 9.4 Idleb Idleb Hama 368 (6.) (1.4) Hama 458 (.9) 6.9 Al- Hasakeh (5.9) (18.7) Al- Hasakeh Homs 345 (1.8) (8.4) Homs Lattakia 388 (3.6) (.4) Lattakia Quneitra 399 (1.1) (2.9) Quneitra 215 (4.) (8.5) Ar-Raqqa (5.6) 3.2 Ar-Raqqa Rural Damascus 36 (3.1) (2.) Rural Damascus 25 - (8.3) 6 As-Sweida 367 (3.9) (8.4) As-Sweida Tartous 395 (1.3) (4.1) Tartous Tea (kg) Tomato paste (kg) Tomatoe (kg) Unskilled Labor wage Wheat Flour (kg) White beans (kg) Yogurt (kg)

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 4/24/2013 GAIN Report Number: