China s thermal power industry total factor energy efficiency and its convergence

Transcription

1 Availale olie oural of Chemical ad Pharmaceuical Research 24 6(4):28-35 Research Aricle ISSN : COEN(USA) : CPRC5 Chia s hermal power idusr oal facor eer efficiec ad is coverece iu Shulia ad Wa uali* Norh Chia Elecric Power Uiversi of Chia Chia ABSTRACT Resources ad eviromeal pressures which Chia s susaied ecoomic rowh would face have ecome he focus of aeio of he overme ad he commui. I is more promie i he hermal power idusr wih hih eer cosumpio ad hih polluio. Based o he EA-Malm quis producivi ide cosidered eviromeal impac duri 2~28 his paper has surveed 3 provices oal facor eer efficiec he echolo proress ad he echolo efficiec ide. The resuls demosrae ha TFP of overall Chia rew slowl ad he impac of is ecoomic level ad resource codiios i each reio was ovious. Furhermore he paper aalzes he TFP red ad he mai reaso of i. Throuh he coverece aalsis of overall Chia ad hree maor areas here is o coverece u asolue ad codiioal coverece i he whole cour while i each area here is ol coverece. Ke words: Thermal power idusr oal facor eer efficiec eviromeal impac EA-Malmquis ide coverece INTROUCTION Coal is Chia s mai eer accoui for more ha 7% of primar eer while he use of coal for power eeraio accous for more ha half of he cosumpio of raw coal Chia s power eeraio is mai hermal power ad coal accous for more ha 95% of he eer of hermal power []. For eample coal for power eeraio i 25 is aou.56 illio os accoui for 52.8 perce of oal coal cosumpio accoui for he proporio of primar eer cosumpio aou 38% ad accoui for he proporio of oal fial eer cosumpio of he asic aou 8%. Therefore promoi he eer efficiec of Chia s power idusr especiall hermal power idusr will e udouedl siifica o promoi he cour s eer efficiec ad eer savi. Thus he research o hermal power idusr s oal facor eer efficiec ca o ol help o ideif he reasos for low eer efficiec of Chia s hermal power eeraio u also is of rea pracical siificace o improve he siuaio of eviromeal resources ad achieve our ares of eer savi ad emissio reducio. Fisher had aalzed Chia s idusrial eerprises daa from 997 o 999 coued ha he level of Chia s eer use ad eer iesi of he asolue declie was primaril due o eer price icreases which icreased R & ivesme ad eerprise owership reform i 996 [2-4]. am had used daa evelopme aalsis (EA) mehod o have a more comprehesive sud o oal facor producivi of Chiese hermal power idusr chaes i from 995 o 2 ad aalsis he facors ha affeci he echical efficiec u had o ook eviromeal facors io accou. Su iche Zhou equ ad i Qu had applied EA-Malmquis mehod io forecas eer efficiec ad chaes i idies i 2 couries from 997 o 26 he resuls showed ha he drop of he rowh rae of he eer use ad echoloical proress is he mai reaso for Chiese eer use efficiec. Bai Xueie ad So Yi have used hree-sae EA model o eclude evirome variales ad make saisical oise o 28

2 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35 aalsis he hermal power idusr i 3 provices i Chia i 24 he resuls showed ha he efficiec of hermal power idusr i ma provices was iflueced he level of reioal ecoomic developme resource edowmes oher eviromeal variales ad he impac of ood or ad luck. The prolem of hih scale efficiec i he homoeeous usiess evirome is more promie [5-9]. A prese lieraure ha akes eviromeal impac io oal facor eer efficiec framework is sill relaive. Yua Xiaoli Zha Baosha seleci ased o ipu-orieed cosa reurs o scale super-efficiec EA model esimaed he ier-provicial oal facor eer efficiec icludi eviromeal polluio of Chia s 28 provices ad auoomous reios i Ad he cosidered ha he idusrial srucure owership srucure eer cosumpio srucure ad resource edowmes had a siifica eaive impac o oal facor eer efficiec ad ha he eer price facor showed a weak posiive correlaio wih he oal facor eer efficiec.wa Kelia Ya Baoche measured Chia s provicial oal facor eer efficiec over he period 2 o 27 cosideri eviromeal cosrai ad compared he efficiec of each provice he whole cour ad hree maor areas ad Toi model was used o es he ifluece facors of Chia s oal facor eer efficiec The empirical resuls show he low level of Chia s oal facor efficiec ad relaivel siifica differeces i eer uilizaio amo all areas ad hree maor reios. I is clear ha opimizi ecoomic srucure ad eer cosumpio srucure as well as echical proress have remarkale faciliaio for improvi eer efficiec. Wa Shasha Qu Xiao e seleced he pael daa of 28 maufacuri idusries ewee 23 ad 28 as samples adoped o-parameric daa evelopme aalsis EA-Malmquis epoeial mehod calculaed he oal facor eer efficiec idees of Chia maufacuri idusr o cosideri he eviromeal effecs ad also sudied he ifluece facors o he oal facor eer efficiec adopi Toi model [-2]. EXPERIMENTA SECTION METHOOOGIES () Eviromeal Techolo I order o ierae eviromeal facors io he framework of oal facor eer efficiec we eed o cosruc a producio possiili se firsl which coaied oh desirale oupu ad udesirale oupu. N Assume ha each provice or reio uses N kids of ipus ( 2 N ) R o produce M kids of M I desirale oupus 2 K M R ad I kids of udesirale oupus 2 I R. The relaioship ewee ipu ad oupu is represeed he followi oupu se: P N caproduce R () If he oupu se represes eviromeal echolo he oupu se will have he followi four properies. P (2) A. I meas if here is o udesirale oupu here is o desirale oupu. Or if here is desirale oupu here mus e udesirale oupu. P P( ) (3) B. This implies ha he reducio i udesirale oupu is alwas alo wih he reducio i desirale oupu. P P C. (4) This implies ha desirale oupu ca also e reduced wihou reduci he udesirale oe. The amou of desirale oupu shows he level of echical efficiec uder eviromeal cosrai.. If P P (5) he Assume period =2 T ad decisio maki ui(mu) =2 ipu-oupu vecor is N M I. Usi daa of ipus oupus ad polluio he EA models for measuri he eviromeal echolo model meei hose aove characerisics i ca e represeed he followi model: 29

3 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4): i i m m N I i M m P (6) (2) irecioal disace fucio Eviromeal echolo ives he froier of producio possiili uder eviromeal cosrais which is he se maimum oupu ad miimum polluio uder a ive ipu. Bu he eviromeal oupu se ha mee he aove properies ca o e calculaed he radiioal Shephard disace fucio. Accordi o ueerer s shorae fucio we uild a direcioal evirome disace fucio: p : sup (7) is he direcio vecor of he epasio of desirale oupu ad coracio of udesirale oupu. implies ha for a ive ipu whe oupu ad epad or corac he same proporio he maim-um i desirale oupu ad udesirale oupu possile reduces. Therefore he direcioal disace fucio measures he level of producer s iefficiec relaive o he level of eviromeal echolo. The firm which operaes o he froier has echical efficiec whe he value of direcioal disace fucio is zero. We ca use he followi mahemaical liear prorammi o calculae he value of direcioal disace fucio. N I i M m s Ma i i m m ) (.. (8) (3) Malmquis-ueerer Ide Accordi o Chu he oupu-orieed Malmquis-ueerer ide (M) ewee period ad he period + is represeed as follows:!! ) ( M (9) M ide ca e decomposed io Techolo Efficiec (TE) ad Techoloical Proress (TP): TP TE M () TE ()

4 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35! TP (2) Fuure more TE also ca e decomposed io Pure Techolo Efficiec (PTE) ad Scale Efficiec (SE). ikewise TE PTE SE If he value of M TE ad TP is reaer ha i idicaes ha producivi rowh efficiec improvemes ad echolo proress. While he value is less ha i idicaes ha producivi declie efficiec deerioraio ad echolo reress. If he value is equal o i idicaes ha he producivi efficiec ad echolo have o chae[3-8]. THE TOTA FACTOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AN ITS ECOMPOSITION Based o Malmquis-ueerer Ide accordi o o-parameric EA model wih he sofware of EAP2. cosidered he eviromeal impac duri he ear 2~28 his paper surves 3 provices oal facor eer efficiec s averae chae ad is decomposiio resuls of Chia s hermal power eeraio. I order o sud he reioal differeces of eer efficiec he paper divided 3 provices io 3 reios i he radiioal wa. The resuls are i Tale o Tale 4. Tale Toal Facor Eer Efficiec ad Is ecomposiio i he Easer Reio Provice TFP TE TP PTE SE Beii Tiai Heei iaoi Shahai iasu Zheia Fuia Shado Guado Haia Easer Mea Tale 2 Toal Facor Eer Efficiec ad Is ecomposiio i he Middle Reio Provice TFP TE TP PTE SE Shai Ahui iai Hea Huei Hua ili Heiloia Middle Mea Tale 3 Toal Facor Eer Efficiec ad Is ecomposiio i he Weser Reio Provice TFP TE TP PTE SE Ier Moolia Guai Choqi Sichua Guizhou Yua Shaai Gasu Qihai Niia Xiia Weser Mea

5 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35 Tale 4 Toal Facor Eer Efficiec ad Is ecomposiio of he Naio TFP TE TP PTE SE Naio Fuure more accordi o equal () we ca calculae he Coriuio Rae of TE ad TP. The resuls are as show i Tale 5. Tale 5 The Coriuio Rae of TE ad TP TFP TE TP CR of TE CR of TR Naio % 55.65% Easer % 33.3% Middle... % % Weser % -5% Accordi o Tale 4 he aual averae rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of Chia s hermal power idusr is % wih echical efficiec icreasi.4% echoloical proress icreasi.5%. Ad accordi o Tale 5 he Coriuio Rae of TR is 55.65%. I demosraes ha he rowh of hermal power idusr s oal facor eer efficiec of he aio is mail due o TP. Accordi o Tale he aual averae rowh of he oal facor eer efficiec i Easer Reio is.8% reaer ha he Naio. Ad he rowh is mail due o he icrease of TE he Coriuio Rae is 66.7% which is show i Tale 5. The Middle Reio has he same characer of he Easer Reio ad he aual averae rowh of he oal facor eer efficiec is.4%. Bu he Coriuio Rae of TE is % accordi o Tale 5. I meas he rowh of TFP is due o TE ol. The aual averae rowh of he oal facor eer efficiec i each provice of Easer Reio ad Middle Reio is also reaer ha he Naio. The hihes is iasu provice (6.%). I he Weser Reio he TFP of some provices is eaive such as Guai provice(-4.4%). Bu he TFP of Ier Moolia wih auda coal resources is 5.%. From he aove aalsis we ca coclude ha he provices wih hiher rowh rae of oal facor eer efficiec are all eiher developed coasal provices(iasu Zheia ec) or coal-rich provices (Shai Ier Moolia ec.). The provices wih eaive rowh are developi areas ad he reaso of causi is eaive rowh is mail due o echical reress while he efficiec of hese provices almos has o chaes. THE TREN OF TOTA FACTOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY Growh rae % Naio eas Mid Eas Year Fi. : Growh red of M ide from 2 o 28 () From 2 o 23 he Naioal Thermal Power Idusr s oal facor eer efficiec preses a risi red o he maimum i 23. This Pheomeo is due o rapid rowh of elecrici cosumpio which caused ecoomic recover ad rapid developme afer Souheas Asia fiacial crisis i998. (2) I 23 a aioal elecrici shorae appear i Chia he shorae of power improves he efficiec of hermal power uis i each reio ad here promoes he rowh rae of oal facor eer efficiec. The oal facor 32

6 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35 eer efficiec eis o declie afer 23 ad shows a modes reoud i 25 aferwards preses a dowward red edi o zero eve ei eaive rowh i 28. I his period ma ew hermal power plas are uil ad hermal power uis are operaed ecause of power shorae caused a ew roud of ecoomic rowh maki he oal facor eer efficiec uder eviromeal cosrai declie. I Eleveh Five-Year period more srie polluio corol requiremes was adoped which claim o phase ou small hermal power uis sric eamie he hermal power plas ew uil ad resoluel pu a ed o he uildi of small hermal power eeraio uis hus prevei echical proress i a shor period wih he emerece of eaive rowh. Thus he rowh rae of oal facor eer efficiec i his period eis o declie. Viewi from he su-reioal perspecive he weser reio is he reio which he oal facor eer efficiec rows fases volaili is lares ad declie is fases. Ceral reio is he reio ha rows slowes. Ad he rowh red of easer reio is mos similar o he aioal averae oe. CONVERGENCE ANAYSIS The rowh red of oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio i hree reios has rea differece. To es he differece we eed do coverece aalsis of he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of each reio. Coverece aalsis of used i he ecoomic lieraure commol iclude: coverece asolue coverece ad codiioal coverece. For he oal facor eer efficiec he coverece deermie coverece aalzi he sadard deviaio disriuio of oal facor eer efficiec s level ha is if he sadard deviaio eds o decrease over ime here is coverece oherwise o coverece. Asolue coverece refers ha as ime oes o he oal facor eer efficiec of ecoomies reds o a same rowh level ad a same rowh rae. This idicaes ha he oal facor eer efficiec of developi ecoomies rows faser ha he oe of developed ecoomies i he process edi o sead-sae he facors ehid he ecoom-wide eer efficie ha he developed ecoomies rowh i oal facor eer efficiec faser. Codiioal coverece refers ha accordi o differe properies of hese ecoomies each ecoom is close o iself sead-sae level differe speeds ad he speed is proporioal o he disace ei relaive o is sead-sae level. Tha is o sa he lower is iiial level he faser is rowh rae. coverece ad asolue coverece are oh elo o he cocep of asolue coverece. () Coverece Tes S d Naio Eas Mid Wes (ear) Fi. 2: The sadard deviaio of TFP As ca e see from Fi.2 i he erm of whole cour from 2 o 22 oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio is coverece. Sice 22 i appears divere reds ad coiued o uil 26. I 27 i appears coverece. I erm of reio he easer reio has ee showi a slih diverece from 2 o 26 aferwards coverece occurs. The red of oal facor sadard deviaio of weser reio hermal power eeraio is similar o he aioal oe wih coverece also occurri i 27. The sadard deviaio s flucuaio of oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio i ceral reio is more freque ad does show ovious coverece or diverece pheomeo. From he horizoal comparisos ewee hree reios he sadard deviaio of oal 33

7 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35 facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio i weser reio is he lares ad he oe of easer reio is he smalles. Tha shows relaive o he easer ad ceral provices he oal facor eer efficiec s rowh ap amo weser provices is sill larer. (2) The Asolue Coverece Tes TFPi T TFPi i TFPi (3) T i TFP i TFP TFP i i r i (4) I he formula is cosa erm is he averae aual oal facor eer efficiec s rowh rae of hermal i power eeraio of ecoomies from ase period o T TFP is he ase period oarihmic value of oal facor i eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio of ecoomies ad is is coefficie values. is residual erm. is he icreased corol variale of ad is is coefficie. If is eaive he here is asolue covere. Tale 6 Asolue Coverece Tes (OS reressio) Naio Easer Reio Middle Reio Weser Reio Cosa Term (.2) (.3) (.36) (.43) Coefficie of TFP i -.93** (.729) (.655) (.349) (.345) Adus R The F Saisic 7.7** ** represes ha i is siifica a he level of 5% As ca e see i Tale 6 reressio equaio coefficies of he aio ad hree reio are eaive u ol he coefficie of he aio is siifica while he hree reios alhouh have o si of diverece u he coefficie is o siifica so here is asolue coverece ol i aio. (3) Codiioal coverece es Pael aa Fied effecs es is esi a ew mehod of codiioal coverece e which is differe from radiioal esi mehods Pael aa s fied effecs correspods wih differe sead-sae codiios of ecoomies so i does o eed o add corol variales. A he same ime Pael daa fied effecs es ca use he leas daa o do codiioal coverece es. Maki use of he sofware of Eviews 6. he esimaio resuls of PS is represeed i Tale 7. The model esimaio resuls of aio ad hree reios are siifica a % level. As he esimaes value of is siifical eaive i idicaes ha here is eis codiios coverece i Chia s hermal power eeraio ad he oal facor eer efficiec of each provice ad reioal hermal power eeraio all moves owards o heir equilirium sae. Tale 7 Codiioal Coverece Tes Naio Easer Reio Middle Reio Weser Reio Cosa Term.2* (.35) (.42) (.63) (.74) Coefficie of TFP -.85* -.2* -.982* -.9* i (.696) (.253) (.484) (.7) Adus R The F Saisic 8.278* 7.2* 5.543* 6.976* * represes ha i is siifica a he level of % i 34

8 iu Shulia ad Wa uali. Chem. Pharm. Res. 24 6(4):28-35 CONCUSION Tradiioal measure mehods of oal facor eer efficiec ofe iore he udesirale oupu ad ol cosider he desirale oupu. Therefore he value of oal facor eer efficiec measured has a laer deviaio from acual oe. Afer aki eviromeal cosrai io accou he paper usi Malmquis-ueerer producivi ide measures he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of 3 provices hermal power eeraio of Chia over 2 o 28 ad es is coverece he resuls show ha: () The oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio cosideri eviromeal cosrai is siifical lower ha he oe ha does. This is mail ecause afer cosideri eviromeal cosrai echical efficiec is almos chaes. I idicaes eviromeal cosrai seriousl reduce he rowh of echical proress so as o he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec. (2) From a aioal perspecive he rowh rae of oal facor eer efficiec i developed or coal-rich provices is eerall hiher ha oher provices from he su-reioal perspecive he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio i weser reio is fases followed he easer reio ceral reio slowes his is mail ecause of he mos auda coal resources i he weser reio he mos developed ecoomies i easer reio while ceral reio does o possess hese advaaes aove. This idicaes ha resource edowme ad he level of ecoomic developme have a rea impac o he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of he hermal power eeraio. (3) From he aioal calculaio resuls he rowh of oal facor eer efficiec of aioal hermal power eeraio is he resul of he commo effec of echoloical proress ad efficiec improveme from he su-reio measured resuls he oe of easer reio is also he resul of he commo effec of echoloical proress ad efficiec improveme while he oe of ceral ad weser reio is mail caused efficiec improveme ad echical proress pla lile role. This shows ha icreasi he echical proress he oal facor eer efficiec of hermal power eeraio i Chia s ceral ad weser reio is sill much poeial o promoe. I fuure developme we should pa more aeio o he improveme of echoloical proress. (4) I he coverece aalsis es of he oal facor eer efficiec of Chia s hermal power eeraio as far as he whole cour is cocered here is ol asolue coverece ad codiioal coverece u o coverece. I idicaes ha oal facor eer efficiec of Chia s hermal power eeraio moves owards a commo sead-sae level. From he su-reio i Chia s easer ceral ad weser reio here is o asolue coverece coverece eiss ol codiios ha he reioal hermal power eeraio oal facor eer efficiec are movi closer o heir sead sae. REFERENCES [] Chamers P.G Chu Y Fare R: oural of Ecoomic Theor v.7 pp [2] Zhee Tu Ge Xiao: Ecoomic Research oural pp [3] Wa Bi Pefei Ya: Ecoomic Research oural v [4] Zhee Tu: oural of Fiace ad Ecoomics v.33 pp [5] iu Wei Guaro To: oural of Chi a Uiversi of Geosciece v. 2. [6] Wa Bi Yarui Wu Pefe Ya: Ecoomic Research oural v.5 pp [7] Xueie Bai So Yi: Chia Idusrial Ecoomics v [8] Wa ue Wefei So Xiafe Ha: Ecoomic Review v.5 2. [9] Wa Bi io u Che Ru: Ecoomic Review v.4 2. [] Guohu Pe: The ispari of Icome TFP ad he Coverece Hpohesis i Chiese Provices. Ecoomic Research oural v [] Farrell M..The measureme of producivi efficiec. I oural of he Roal Saisical Socie [2] Shi a: Ecoomic Research oural v.9 pp [3] Chu Y.H. R. Fare S.Grosskopf: Producivi ad Udesirale Oupus: A irecioal isace Fucio Approach. oural of Eviromeal Maaeme v [4] Fare R.S. Grosskopf. oa: oural of Pulic Ecoomics v.26 pp [5] Fare R.S. Grosskopf: Ecoloical Ecoomics v.8 pp [6] Fare R.S. Grosskopf: oural of Producivi Aalsis v.3 pp [7] Fare R.S. Grosskopf: oural of Operaioal Research Europea v.57 pp [8] Fare R.S. Grosskopf A.P..Carl: William Weer. Susiuaili amo Udesirale Oupus. Worki Paper