Sugar scenario in CIS countries:

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1 Sugar scenario in CIS countries: on the way to self-sufficiency Andrey Bodin Eurasian Sugar Association

2 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) consists of 11 countries CIS Moldova Belarus Population 277 mln people Ukraine Russia Area 20,99 mln km² Azerbaijan Armenia Turkmenistan EAEU Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Sugar consumption 9.27 mln t Sugar production 9.3 mln t - beet 8.1 mln t - raw 1.18 mln t Tajikistan 2

3 Customs regulations in CIS countries differ Countries Sugar sufficiency Mechanism of customs tariff regulation Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia Ukraine Moldova Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan High level of self-sufficiency High level of self-sufficiency High level of self-sufficiency Low level of selfsufficiency, dependence on import Common customs tariff, the removal of sugar from free trade regime High customs duties on sugar and raw sugar, the removal of sugar from free trade regime Customs duties on sugar and raw sugar, special protective measures Low custom duties 3

4 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was established in 2010 The biggest influence to the cis sugar market have the sugar producers from Eurasian economic union: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Armenia 4

5 77% of CIS beet sugar will be produced by EAEU countries in season 2016/17 EAEU Belarus Population 183 mln people Russia Area Sugar consumption mln km² 6.31 mln t Armenia Kazakhstan Sugar production 6.5 mln t - beet 6.35 mln t - raw 0.15 mln t Kyrgyzstan 5

6 DAD Customs regulations in EAEU countries Sugar policy in CU countries White sugar USD340/mt Import Duty Raw sugar USD /mt Exemptions: Kazakhstan: import duty for raw sugar - 0% till 2019, import duty for white sugar 0%, bonded warehouses till 2017; Armenia: since import duty for raw sugar - 0% till 2025, import duty for white sugar (4,000 mt) 10% for ; Kyrgyzstan: since 2015 for 5 years the privilege to import up to 100 thousand tons of raw sugar without duty 6

7 Thousand ha In EAEU countries beet sowing area has increased by 12% since Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 7

8 Thousand tons Sugar beet areas in EAEU may increase Up to 10% in % Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 8

9 Sugar yield, tons/ha Sugar yield may reach average 6,5 tons per 1 ha by 2020 in EAEU countries Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia Belarus

10 Increase in sugar yield per 1 ha to be achieved by: Use of new hybrids of sugar beet seeds; Improvements in agrotechnology; Further modernization of sugar factories 10

11 Thousand tons of beet per day Sugar factory capacities increased by 20% since (forecast) Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 11

12 Thousand tons of beet per day Sugar factories capacities in EAEU are expected to increase by 20% % (forecast) Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan 12

13 Thousand tons Beet sugar production increased by 72% within 6 years consumption / / / / / / /17 (forecast) Russia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Belarus 13

14 Thousand tons More than 500 thousand tons of sugar EAEU countries will have to export by consumption Potential surplus 500 th. tons % / / / / / / /17 (forecast) 2020 (forecast) Russia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Belarus 14

15 % of consumption level Historically high sugar stocks in EAEU countries expected in 2016/ % of consumption level 0 aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul 2014/ / /17 15

16 Thousand tons As a result decrease in raw sugar and white sugar import Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan No import sugar needed Kyrgyzstan /16 (raw sugar) /17 (raw sugar) Russia /16 (white sugar) /17 (white sugar) 16

17 USD/t (excl. VAT) August Factors influencing local sugar price trends September October November December January February March April May June July /16 Sugar beet processing Sowing campaign 17

18 USD/t (excl. VAT) This year domestic sugar prices depend on the world white sugar market August September October November December January February March April May June July / /17 Contract 5 (White Sugar) 100$ Export price support 18

19 EAEU white sugar is competitive for export this year Belarus Kyrgyzstan White Sugar (London #5) Kazakhstan India Armenia Russia Raw Sugar (NY #11)

20 Ukrainian sugar remains competitive in CIS countries in 2016/17 Ukraine Moldova 292 th. ha 1850 th. tons 1600 th. tons 250 th. tons 430 $/t Sowing area Production forecast Annual consumption Surplus Current price 24,2 th. ha 100 th. tons 80 th. tons 20 th. tons 590 $/t 20

21 Four CIS countries are net sugar c Overall sugar, th. t Sugar consumption, th. t White sugar prices Demand, th. t Azerbaijan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan 660 Tajikistan 690 Turkmenistan 520 Uzbekistan 640 USD/Tonne 21

22 Sugar by-products play important role in economics of sugar factories Total export revenue in 2015 exceeded 145 mln USD Beet pulp pellets (BPP) 1,0 mln tons 110 mln USD Molasses, 440 thousand tons 35 mln USD 22

23 EAEU is net exporter of sugar by-products BPP, thousand tones Beet molasses, thousand tones

24 THANK YOU! Eurasian Sugar Association Andrey Bodin Executive Director 8/1 bld. 1, Skatertny Lane, Moscow, , Russia tel.: +7 (495) , fax: +7 (495)

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