The Craft Distillery Market 2016: Normal is as Normal does
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1 The Craft Distillery Market 2016: Normal is as Normal does Michael Kinstlick CEO, Coppersea Distilling ADI Research Economist
2 U.S. Craft Distilleries How Many? What Products Are They Making? Where Are They? Where Are We in the Market Development Cycle?
3 Craft Distillery Market Snapshot Unique U.S. listings in ADI Directories Unique U.S. listings in 2017 ADI Directory (year-end 2016) 2100 Listings in TTB DSP permit holders file (late-2016) Operating Craft Distilleries as of year-end Identified Operating Craft Distilleries as of year-end 2016 Remainder are Known & Estimated Hidden Entrants # of Entrants is (still) doubling every three years Approximately 1150 Producing Craft Distilleries in 2016.
4 Potential Entrants: New TTB DSP s are Pre-producers 2500 TTB Permittees Approximately 300 adds and 50 drops /1/10 1/1/11 7/1/11 1/1/12 7/1/12 1/1/13 7/1/13 1/1/14 7/1/14 1/1/15 7/1/15 1/1/16 7/1/16 1/1/17 Data: TTB, Michael Kinstlick
5 Recent Years Listings More Likely to be Producers 1 Cumulative Producers by ADI Listing Year About 70% of new ( T-1 ) listings from in production Only 35% of new ( T-1 ) listings from in production 0 T-4 T-3 T-2 T-1 T T+1 T+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
6 Craft Distilleries: New Entrants New Production Craft Distilleries By Year * Data: TTB, ADI, Michael Kinstlick
7 U.S. Production Craft Distilleries, In-Production Craft Distilleries Data: TTB, ADI, Michael Kinstlick
8 Craft Distilleries What are they making? 100% % Producers in Category by Entry Year 75% 50% 25% 0% Vodka Gin Whisky Rum Other < Note: Multiple-category firms mean these %-ages do not sum to 100% Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
9 Craft Distilleries Whisky? Yes, Please! % of Whisky Producers by Entry Year 100% 90% The hidden entrant gap 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 & prior Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
10 Craft Distilleries By State, States have 0 16 have 1 12 have >1 Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
11 Craft Distilleries By State, 2016 Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
12 Craft Distilleries By State, Data: ADI, Michael Kinstlick
13 Craft Distilleries vs. Craft Breweries Craft Distilleries vs Microbrews by Industry Age (Microbrew start = 1961, Craft Distilleries = 1982) MicroBreweries Data: TTB, ADI, Michael Kinstlick, Glenn Carroll, Anand Swaminathan, Bart Watson / Brewer s Association Craft Distilleries
14 Conclusion Number of Craft Distilleries in the market will reach 2000 within 5 years. Exits will start to become part of the landscape. Craft Distilled spirits consumption is solidly in earlyadopter phase. Craft Distillers have 2% US Distilled Spirits ($) market share Craft Brewers have 15-20% US Beer ($) market share The renewal of American distilling is following a classic pattern of industry resurgences.
15 Data & Methods What is a Craft-Distillery? 1. Independent Firm Below a certain production volume. (40-50k 9L cases, generally) 2. Distilling spirits themselves 3. Bottling & Marketing them directly Definition Excludes Barrelers & Bottlers Importers Rectifiers Infusers Contract Distillers Data ADI Directories, TTB DSP permit holders foia file (online, ) State Guild websites
16 About the Author Michael Kinstlick comes to the spirits industry from a 20 year career in finance, technology, and insurance. He co-founded Coppersea Distilling, LLC with distiller Angus MacDonald in Coppersea is currently producing distinctive whiskies and eaux de vie using its heritage-methods distilling practices and is available in 12 states. Michael has a BA in Economics from Columbia University, a MS in Industrial Engineering from Northwestern, and a MBA from the Haas School of Business at U.C. Berkeley.
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