Market Consumer Expenditure ( m)

Transcription

1 Supplementary Information Market and Financial Preliminary i Results 26 November 2009

2 Market Consumer Expenditure ( m) to 2008 Total Total (Nominal) (Real) 6.4% 1.4% % 3.3% Eating Out Wine Spirits Beer % -0.4% CAGR Actual Beer Spirits Wine Eating Out Source: ONS NB. Eating-Out Market includes Soft Drinks 2

3 Growth of Eating Out Demand % of total food spend out of home Increase 3 rd Income Decile (Just above min wage) 10% 22% 2.2x 6 th Income Decile (Average C1) 20% 32% 1.6x 9 th Income Decile (Affluent B) 27% 37% x Source: ONS (Family Spending Survey) 3

4 Eating out as a percentage of total food expenditure (UK vs US) % of total hou usehold exp penditure on food US UK Source: US Dept of Agriculture, Economic Research Service and ONS (Family Spending Survey) 4

5 Beer volume: on-trade vs off-trade UK beer market volume (barrels thousands) On Trade Off Trade CAGR (80-08) -2.7% CAGR (01-08) -4.3% +3.8% +2.8% Source: BBPA 5 Barrels (thousands)

6 Movement in Beer Price: 1987 to On Trade Off Trade Jan 1988 Jan 1989 Jan 1990 Jan 1991 Jan 1992 Jan 1993 Jan 1994 Jan 1995 Jan 1996 Jan 1997 Jan 1998 Jan 1999 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan Source: ONS RPI index 6 Beer Price (rebased to 100)

7 Food and drink market ( bn) in and out of home 100% 80 Household expenditure on all food* and alcoholic drink 2008 billions Total = Alcohol 14.3 Alcohol Food & Soft Drinks 78.7 Food & Soft Drinks In Home Out of Home *Includes soft drinks Source: Consumer Trends, ONS 7

8 Drinks Purchases ( bn) in and out of home 100% Household Expenditure on Total Alcoholic Beverages 2008 billions Total = Out of Home 15.6 Out of Home 9.1 Out of Home In Home 3.4 In Home 6.8 In Home Beer Wine Spirits Source: Consumer Trends, ONS 8

9 Drinks volumes (hectolitres) in and out of home Out of home % Total = 64.7 Out of home Out of home 27.1 In home 20 In home 23.5 In home Beer Wine Spirits Source: BBPA 9

10 Loch Fyne Café Rouge PCDG Average Food Price: for 5 key main meals Average Non Promoted Retail Price of Selected Mains by Retail Brand Browns Giraffe Frankie & Benny's Carluccio's Beefeater All Bar One Ask Chef & Brewer Pizza Express Table Table Mille er & Carter Vintage Inns Wagamama Harvester (non EB) Nicholsons Brewers Fayre Nando's Toby Carvery Ember Inns Wetherspoon Yates's Hungry Horse O'Neill's Harvester (Early Bird) 2 for 1 (Marstons) Scream Two For One Sizzling Pub Co Town Pubs Cornerstone Crown Carvery Source: CGA Food Price Monitor H & MAB EPOS Data Basis: Unweighted average price of five pub main meals for all pub brands (chicken dish, burger, fish & chips etc), UCD brands are a straight unweighted average of main meal price. Average Price - Selected Mains

11 Chef & Brewer Castle Revolution All Bar One Nicholson's & Classics Two For One (Punch) Village Pub & Kitchen (Marston's) Average Drink Price: for 5 key drinks Non Promoted Drinks Price - Basket of selected products O'Neill's Vintage Inns Miller & Carter Beefeater Brewers Fayre Table Table Harvesterr Hungry Horse John Barras & Co Bostin Locals Ember Toby Carvery Lloyds No.1 Crown Carveries Wetherspoon Scream Town Pubs Community Pubs Source: CGA Ons Prices Basis: Drinks prices for five key drinks (lager, cider, cola, spirit, stout) weighted by an average pub mix. 11 Average drinks pr rice

12 MAB volume performance vs the market MAB Estimated Volume Growth (1) Market Volume Growth (2) Food 7% -3% Wine & Soft Drinks 2% -3% Spirits -4% -5% Beer & Cider Flat -6% (1) Same outlet like-for-like growth (2) MAB estimates based on BBPA/AC Neilsen/ONS 12

13 Retail revenue growth FY09 Total Revenue* up 3.4% Same Outlet like-for-likes up 1.6% Uninvested like-for-likes up 0.8% * Excluding SCPD 13

14 Same outlet like-for-like sales FY09 Divisionali i H1 09* H2 09** FY09 Pubs & Bars*** 1.9% 1.3% 1.7% Restaurants 06% 0.6% 29% 2.9% 15% 1.5% Segmental Residential 20% 2.0% 33% 3.3% 25% 2.5% High Street 0.3% (1.0)% (0.2)% Total*** 12% 1.2% 21% 2.1% 16% 1.6% *Wks 1-33 to include Easter in both periods being compared ** Wks to exclude Easter from both periods being compared ***Includes Hollywood Bowl 14

15 Uninvested like-for-like sales FY09 Divisionali i H1 09* H2 09** FY09 Pubs & Bars*** 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% Restaurants (0.9)% 24% 2.4% 04% 0.4% Segmental Residential 06% 0.6% 28% 2.8% 14% 1.4% High Street 0.1% (1.1)% (0.4)% Total*** 02% 0.2% 17% 1.7% 08% 0.8% *Wks 1-33 to include Easter in both periods being compared ** Wks to exclude Easter from both periods being compared ***Includes Hollywood Bowl 15

16 Retail Price FY09 4 Food Drinks % e (%) e Retail Price Average % LFL Price -3.7% LFL Price -0.9% +2.1% % 5 Note: Prices exclusive of VAT, prices for like for like pubs 16

17 Retail revenue & profit FY09* Restaurants Pubs & Bars Total Food Revenue 602m 187m 789m Food Revenue Mix% 60.3% 19.5% 40.3% Drink Revenue 354m 669m 1,023m Total Revenue 999m 958m 1,957m Operating Profit ** 141m 159m 300m * Excluding SCPD ** Before exceptional items 17

18 Retail FY09* FY09 FY08 Pub staff costs %age 24.3% 24.2% Net Retail Operating Margin 15.3% 17.5% Expansionary Capex 36m 82m Maintenance Capex 86m 111m Disposals 72m 82m *Excluding SCPD 18

19 Retail Beer Price Comparison of Information Sources CGA approach - Calculates an average price based on an un-weighted average not reflecting relative product volumes e.g. Carling price has same weighting as Becks Vier price AC Nielsen - Calculates an average price based on weighted average reflecting volume of different products - This is the same approach adopted d as taken by ONS when calculating l UK inflation figures MAB approach - MAB uses both CGA and AC Nielsen data however CGA data is adjusted for the relevant company product mix - MAB additionally takes into account the geographical mix of competitor estates t 19

20 CROCCE and NOPAT FY09 52 weeks to 26 September 2009 m CROCCE m EBIT Depreciation/Amortisation 128 EBITDA 428 Cash Tax (at 25% of EBIT)* (75) (75) Cash Return NOPAT Average Net Operating Assets 4, , Average Accumulated Depreciation 699 Average Revaluations (1,554) Goodwill written off % (1,554) % Cash Capital Employed 3,612 2,913 * Unleveraged tax rate 20

21 Brands and operating formats FY09 Local Pubs 36% of pubs 29% of sales Cornerstone Drinks led High Street Bars + Venues High St Pubs & Bars 21% of pubs 19% of sales Note: Scream 71 Other locals 23 Town Pubs Ember Inns 170 Residential Sizzling Premium Country Dining 99 Metropolitan Other pub Professionals restaurants O Neills 80 Nicholson s/ Classics 37 City Centre 1. Excludes Hollywood Bowl (24 outlets) and Alex (43 outlets) 2. The Group operates 2,848 rooms under the InnKeepers Lodge brand (adjacent to its pubs and pub restaurants) and one Express by Holiday Inn (adjacent to its Head Office) 3. Percentages represent share of MAB UK managed pubs (at end FY 09) and sales (in FY 09) Crown Carveries 57 Vintage Inns 199 All Bar One 14 Browns Individual Pub Harvester Toby 133 Pub Restaurants 40% of pubs 48% of sales Food led Miller & Carter City Centre Restaurants 3% of pubs 4% of sales Strong Branding

22 Brands and operating formats FY09 Residential Value 41% of pubs 34% of sales Suburban 27% of pubs 32% of sales City & Country 32% of pubs 34% of sales 111 Crown Carveries Sizzling Harvester Other Locals 23 Cornerstone Toby 133 Ember Inns Miller & Carter Vintage Inns Other pub restaurants 99 Metropolitan Professionals 57 Premium Country Dining Nicholson s/ Classics Scream 71 High Street Bars + Venues 37 All Bar One 80 Town Pubs O Neills 14 Browns City Centre Value Suburban City & Country Note: 1. Excludes Hollywood Bowl (24 outlets) which is in the Value channel and Alex (43 outlets) which is in the City & Country channel 2. The Group operates 2,848 rooms under the InnKeepers Lodge brand and one Express by Holiday Inn (adjacent to its Head Office) 3. Percentages represent share of MAB UK managed pubs (at end of FY 09) and sales (in FY 09) Individual Pub Strong Branding 22

23 Outlet Reconciliation FY09 Total MAB Franchised Total Managed Pubs & Bars Restaurants Closing Outlets (end FY 08) Transfers Disposals Acquisitions Closing Outlets (end H1 09) Average Trading Pubs Average Weekly Take k

24 Securitisation Overview FY09 Class Balance at 26/09/09 Legal Maturity Date Coupon Ratings A1N 200m Dec-30 Lib Libor % 018% AA/AAA/A1 A m Dec % AA/AAA/A1 A3N $418.75m* Dec-30 $ Libor % AA/AAA/A1 A4 170m Dec-30 Libor % AA/AAA/A1 AB 325m Dec-33 Libor % A/AA/A3 B m Dec % A/A B2 350m Dec % A/A C1 200m Sep % BBB+/BBB+ C2 50m Sep-34 Libor % BBB+/BBB+ D1 110m Jun-36 Libor % BBB/BBB Cash interest cost of securitised debt is 5.7% Floating rate notes are fully hedged over their full life. Debt fully amortises by June 2036 Interest is payable quarterly in arrears on 15 March, 15 June, 15 September, 15 December Class A and Class AB note ratings are the higher of Ambac ratings or underlying ratings Ratings are as given by Standard & Poors, Fitch and Moodys (on the Class A and AB notes) *Equivalent to 250m 24

25 Financial Covenants Summary FY09 Securitisation Restricted Payment Tests Covenant Actual Headroom (Relevant Year) Free Cashflow to Debt Service 1.3x 1.8x 81m EBITDA to Debt Service 1.7x 2.0x 59m Securitisation Covenants Covenant Actual Headroom (Relevant Year) Free Cashflow to Debt Service 1.1x 1.8x 116m Net Worth 500m 1,592m 1,092m Non-Securitised Medium Term Facility Covenants Covenant Actual (MAT) Headroom Net Debt to EBITDA* 2.5x 1.99x 30m Free Cashflow to Net Interest 1.0x 4.21x 90m * non-securitised EBITDA, taking account of securitisation dividends 25