CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD MANUFACTURERS

Transcription

1 1 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD MANUFACTURERS MARKET TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN PACKAGED FOOD AND NUTRITION Presented by: Dimitrios Dimakakos, Lead Analyst, Western Europe Lianne van den Bos, Food Analyst Lauren Bandy, Senior Nutrition Analyst #TUTTOFOOD

2 PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A TOUGH ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT DIMITRIOS DIMAKAKOS LEAD ANALYST AIDEPI EUROMONITOR SEMINAR TUTTOFOOD TH MAY

3 PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE Euromonitor International: Strategic Global Market Research 3

4 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

5 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD Key Facts of Packaged Food in Western Europe 5 Total Size bn $ Growth % Per Cap Expenditure in ,297 $

6 % Growth EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD GDP Growth Directly Affects Packaged Food Performance 6 Real GDP Growth Vs Packaged Food Performance to to to to to to 14 Real GDP Growth Packaged Food Growth

7 Consumer Expenditure in Retail Value Terms US$ fixed-exg-yrcur Index Of Consumer Prices EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD Consumer Expenditure Increases Because of Higher Prices 7 1,240 Consumer Expenditure on Food Vs Consumer Price Index 210 1,220 1, , ,160 1, ,120 1, , ,060 1, Consumer Expenditure on Food Index of Consumer Prices 150

8 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD Packaged Food Growth Across Western Europe in US$ Current Value Growth Country 2014% Turkey 8.5 Norway 4.4 Austria 3.3 Finland 3.3 United Kingdom 2.3 Sweden 2.3 Belgium 1.9 Ireland 1.9 Germany 1.8 France 1.6 Denmark 1.5 Spain 1.0 Netherlands 1.0 Switzerland 0.9 Portugal 0.4 Italy -0.3 Greece -2.2

9 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

10 PASTA IN WESTERN EUROPE Pasta Sales in Western Europe Bn US$ Retail Value Sales 0.5% Value Growth 0.4% Increase in Retail Unit Price in 2014 Gluten-free Pasta was the fastest growing category in 2014 with 8% Value Growth

11 Per Capita Consumption in Kg PASTA IN WESTERN EUROPE Price Continues to Play an Important Role in Volume Consumption Per Capita Consumption of Pasta in Kg Italy Greece Switzerland France Germany

12 PASTA IN WESTERN EUROPE Increased Sales for Chilled Pasta in Western Europe 12 Value Sales in % Value Sales in % 25% 28% 73% 70% Chilled Pasta 2% CAGR in Canned/Preserved Pasta Chilled Pasta Dried Pasta Canned/Preserved Pasta Chilled Pasta Dried Pasta

13 PASTA IN WESTERN EUROPE New Product Developments for Pasta across Western Europe 13 Glutenfree Pasta New Flavours Packaging

14 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

15 Retail Value Sales in US$ Retail Value Growth in US$ BAKERY IN WESTERN EUROPE Sales of Bakery Have Been Rising Steadily ,000 Bakery Value Sales in Western Europe in , , , , , , Baked Goods Biscuits Breakfast Cereals 0.00 Retail Value Sales Retail Value Growth

16 Retail Value Growth in US$ Retail Value Sales in US$ BAKERY IN WESTERN EUROPE Multi-grain, Seeds and Whole-wheat Add Value in Packaged Bread Value Sales of Bread Vs Value Growth of NH Bread 33, , , , , , ,000 Bread NH High Fibre Bread

17 BAKERY IN WESTERN EUROPE The Pursuit of Health Remains Key 17 HEALTH & WELLNESS More nutritional benefits CONVENIENCE Changing lifestyle, small day-to-day luxuries NATURALNESS Distrust for artificial ingredients, sustainability

18 BAKERY IN WESTERN EUROPE New Product Launches in Bakery 18 Flavours Indulgence Health and Wellness

19 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

20 %CAGR Growth in Retail Value Terms CONFECTIONERY IN WESTERN EUROPE Chocolate Confectionery Continues to Dominate Value CAGR Chocolate Confectionery Categories % 2014 Value Sales Breakdown Confectionery Chocolate with Toys 9% Boxed Assortments Other Chocolate Confectionery 25% Countlines Seasonal Chocolate Tablets 66% Bagged Selflines/Softlines to 14 CAGR Chocolate Confectionery Gum Sugar Confectionery

21 CONFECTIONERY IN WESTERN EUROPE The Biggest Themes for Confectionery Brands to Consider 21 Premiumisa tion Sharing Fair Trade Key Trends

22 CONFECTIONERY IN WESTERN EUROPE New Product Launches in Confectionery 22 Functionality Cross Category Products Healthier Options

23 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

24 ICE CREAM IN WESTERN EUROPE Key Figures for Ice Cream in 2014 in Western Europe mn US$ Retail Value Sales 2% Increase in Retail Value Sales Frozen yoghurt was the fastest growing category with 27% increase in Retail Value Sales Multipacks continue to gain ground within take-home ice cream

25 % Value Growth ICE CREAM IN WESTERN EUROPE Northern Europe Performs Better than Southern Europe Fastest Growing Categories in the Top Five Markets Ice Cream Value Growth Strongest Performance Country Growth Turkey 9.8 Sweden 7.3 Norway 5.1 United Kingdom 4.2 Belgium Weakest Performance 20 0 Frozen YoghurtRetail Artisanal Retail Artisanal Frozen Yoghurt Sweden Norway Turkey United Kingdom Multi-Pack Belgium Country Growth Switzerland 1.4 Austria 1.2 Spain -0.1 Italy -0.3 Greece -7.3 Value Growth

26 ICE CREAM IN WESTERN EUROPE New Product Developments In Ice Cream 26 Premium Packaging Dairy Free New Flavours

27 EUROPEAN ECONOMY AND PACKAGED FOOD PACKAGED FOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE PASTA BAKERY CONFECTIONERY ICE CREAM PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

28 PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGED FOOD Forecast of Value Growth in Western Europe 28 US$ Constant Value Growth Country 14 to 19 CAGR Norway 1.8 Ireland 1.8 Turkey 1.2 Finland 1.1 Austria 0.9 Denmark 0.9 Sweden 0.7 Spain 0.6 Switzerland 0.6 Belgium 0.6 Germany 0.5 Portugal 0.5 France 0.5 United Kingdom 0.4 Netherlands -0.1 Italy -0.3 Greece -2.1

29 Retail Value Growth in US$ PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGED FOOD Indulgent Products to Perform Better in the Future Value Growth in Western Europe to to to to to 19 Bakery Ice Cream Pasta Confectionery

30 PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGED FOOD Different Performance Across the Biggest European Economies 30

31 PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGED FOOD Packaged Food Success Factors 31 Distribution Sustainability Concerns Health & Wellness Price Growth New Product Developments

32 PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGED FOOD Key Takeaways 32 Innovation Positive growth for indulgent products Health conscious consumers Germany, UK, Turkey and Scandinavian countries are the ones to watch

33 33 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING ANY QUESTIONS?

34 34 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD MANUFACTURERS MARKET TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN PACKAGED FOOD AND NUTRITION Presented by: Dimitrios Dimakakos, Lead Analyst, Western Europe Lianne van den Bos, Food Analyst Lauren Bandy, Senior Nutrition Analyst #TUTTOFOOD

35 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION LIANNE VAN DEN BOS, FOOD ANALYST AIDEPI EUROMONITOR SEMINAR TUTTOFOOD TH MAY

36 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Defining Sweet Snacks 36 Confectionery Snack Bars Ice Cream Sweet Snacks Cakes Nuts Fruit Snacks Pastries Sweet Biscuits Savoury Snacks

37 WHERE IS SWEET SNACKS NOW WHAT IS DRIVING SWEET SNACKS GROWTH WHAT ARE FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN SWEET SNACKS

38 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Sweet Snacks: a Vast Chunk of Packaged Food Sales 38 Over 20% of the packaged food we eat today are Sweet Snacks Proportion of Global Sweet Snacks of Total Packaged Food, % Sweet Snacks 21% 17% 16% 14% 13% Confectionery Cakes Ice Cream Sweet Biscuits Pastries

39 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Sweet Snacks: a Vast Chunk of Packaged Food Sales 39 and it is the second largest growth category compared to other packaged food items in absolute growth Packaged Food Absolute Value Growth Dairy Sweet Snacks Dried Processed Food Oils and Fats Bread Chilled Processed Food Baby Food Frozen Processed Food Sauces, Dressings and Condiments Noodles Canned/Preserved Food Ready Meals Spreads Pasta Meal Replacement Snack Bars Soup US$ billion

40 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Choice of Sweets Across the Globe.. 40 Relative Per Capita consumption of Sweet Snacks, 2014

41 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION What is Causing Such a Difference in Our Sweet Tooth? 41 Asia Pacific Accounts for the majority of global growth of pastries China, largest growth market Western style bakeries popular such as BreadTalk and 85 Café Affordable, pastries US$3/kg vs confectionery US$10/kg Western Europe Confectionery accounts for the majority of Sweet Snack growth Consumers in Western Europe eat 7 times more confectionery than in Asia Pacific UK, Germany, France and Italy in top 10 largest confectionery markets Tablets and Countlines highest performance

42 WHERE IS SWEET SNACKS NOW WHAT IS DRIVING SWEET SNACKS GROWTH WHAT ARE FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN SWEET SNACKS

43 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Why do we Snack? 43

44 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Why do we Snack? 44 Lifestyle Nutritious Indulgence Break Hungry To indulge To be social Refreshment To celebrate Habit Performance Bored

45 Lifestyle KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Changing Lifestyles Fundamentally Change Eating Habits 70% OF GLOBAL HOUSEHOLDS WILL LIVE IN URBAN AREAS BY % OF GLOBAL HOUSEHOLDS WILL BE SINGLE BY % OF CONSUMERS PREPARE BREAKFAST UNDER 5 MINUTES

46 Lifestyle KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Consumers Wake up to More Breakfast Options 46 Retail Value vs Volume Historic Growth CAGRs for Various Breakfast Items Drinking Milk Spreads Plain Biscuits Cheese Pastries Chilled Meat Bread Breakfast Bars Breakfast Cereals % CAGR RSP CAGR % Retail Volume CAGR

47 Nutritious US$ million % CAGR Growth KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Where Do We Get Our Fuel From? 47 Global Snack Bar Performance by Category 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Healthy Fuel All Natural Absolute CAGR % Images: Courtesy of Flickr user Alpha

48 Nutritious KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Best of Both Worlds 48 Time of day Novel ingredients Healthy snacks

49 Indulgence KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Sophisticating the Chocolate Experience 49 New Retail Value Sales Global Chocolate Confectionery Tablets Countlines Tablets Bagged Selflines/Softlines Seasonal Chocolate Other Chocolate Confectionery Countlines Boxed Assortments Chocolate with Toys

50 WHERE IS SWEET SNACKS NOW WHAT IS DRIVING SWEET SNACKS GROWTH WHAT ARE FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN SWEET SNACKS

51 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION The Future of Sweet Snacks 51 Top 15 Fastest Growing Categories Baby Food Meal Replacement Nuts Fruit Snacks Snack Bars Other Sweet and Savoury Snacks Tablets Extruded Snacks Dried Processed Food Oils and Fats Dairy Spreads Countlines Chips/Crisps Savoury Biscuits and Crackers Majority will be snacks No time to eat On the go Retail Value % CAGR Growth Other Snacks

52 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Which Consumers will Drive Sweet Snacks Growth? 52 Millennials.. Aged A lot to prove Snacking as a meal replacement A lot to share

53 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Choice of Sweets Across the Globe.. 53 Relative Per Capita consumption of Sweet Snacks, 2014

54 KEY TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN GLOBAL SWEET SNACKS CONSUMPTION Asia..Mixing it up 54 Relative Per Capita consumption of Sweet Snacks, 2014

55 55 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING ANY QUESTIONS?

56 56 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD MANUFACTURERS MARKET TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS IN PACKAGED FOOD AND NUTRITION Presented by: Dimitrios Dimakakos, Lead Analyst, Western Europe Lianne van den Bos, Food Analyst Lauren Bandy, Senior Nutrition Analyst #TUTTOFOOD

57 WHERE ARE OUR CALORIES COMING FROM? CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN NUTRITION LAUREN BANDY SENIOR NUTRITION ANALYST AIDEPI EUROMONITOR SEMINAR TUTTOFOOD TH May

58 INTRODUCTION THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE KEY MESSAGES

59 INTRODUCTION Passport Nutrition 59 Retail volume Packaged Food Soft drinks

60 INTRODUCTION THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE KEY MESSAGES

61 Population ( 000) % of global population THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE The Public Health Problem: The World s Expanding Waistline 61 Global Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % Overweight Obese Overweight & obese

62 3.4 mn ADULTS DIE A YEAR AS A RESULT OF BEING OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE 23% OF DEATHS FROM HEART DISEASE ARE A RESULT OF OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY $2 trillion ESTIMATED GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT 2013 Sources: WHO/McKinsey

63 % population overweight and obese THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE The More Calories Consumed, the Higher the Obesity Levels 63 Obesity Prevalence vs Calorie Purchasing by Country China UK Spain Mexico Germany Belgium France 20 India ,000 1,500 2,000 Calories per person per day Developed Emerging

64 THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE Calorie Purchase from Packaged Food and Soft Drinks in Western Europe, , Baked Goods Oils and Fats Dairy Dried Processed Food Confectionery Chilled Processed Food Biscuits Frozen Processed Food Sweet and Savoury Snacks Carbonates Ice Cream Others

65 Kcal per capita per day THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands Top the List in Europe 65 Calories purchased by category and country 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Sweet and Savoury Snacks Biscuits Carbonates Dried Processed Food Frozen Processed Food Chilled Processed Food Confectionery Oils and Fats Others Dairy Baked Goods

66 THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE Western European Countries Consume the Most Protein 66

67 g of fat, per capita per day THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE Western Markets Buy the Most Fat Too 67 Purchase of fat from packaged food and soft drinks by region, Western Europe North America Eastern Europe Australasia Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific

68 INTRODUCTION THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE KEY MESSAGES

69 ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES Is Europe Heading Towards a Price Policy Environment? 69

70 ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES Voluntary Actions vs Legislation 70 Government Legislation - Advertising restrictions - Taxes - Age restrictions - Education - School food Industry Voluntary actions - Reformulation - Low-calorie variants - Portion control - Labelling - Funding sports and healthy eating clubs

71 Case Study: Denmark CASE STUDY: DENMARK Fat is Still a Target for Reformulation 71 Fat Purchased From Packaged Food and Soft Drinks Western Europe by Category Oils and Fats Dairy Chilled Processed Food Confectionery Bakery Sweet and Savoury Snacks Sauces, Dressings and Condiments Others

72 Case Study: Denmark Grammes per capita per day Fat content per 100g CASE STUDY: DENMARK Industry Pressure Leads to Danish Fat Tax Being Rescinded Purchase of Fat by Product Category in Denmark Butter Cheese Cream Chilled Processed Meat Chocolate Confectionery Biscuits Cakes Chocolate Spreads 0 Fat purchase Fat content per 100g $2.8 Tax added to products containing more than 2.3% saturated fat per 100g $215m Amount of revenue generated that was ring-fenced for public health 1000 Number of jobs reportedly lost as a direct results of implementing the tax

73 Case Study: United Kingdom CASE STUDY: UNITED KINGDOM Retailers Role Just as Important as Manufacturers 73 12% 8% -$1.4bn Of calories in Western Europe purchased through top 10 companies products Of calories in Western Europe purchased through private label products Value decline in sales of better-for-you food and beverages,

74 INTRODUCTION THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE KEY MESSAGES

75 World Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa Eastern Europe Latin America Australasia Western Europe North America Absolute growth (kcal) CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Number of Calories Purchased Could Potentially Rise Up to Forecast Growth in Food and Drink Calorie Purchasing by Region

76 CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE What Would happen if Consumers Bought 100kcal Less? 76 Biscuits 100kcal = 21g 1-2 biscuits less per person per day -4% Ice Cream 100kcal = 51g ~1 bar -13% Chocolate confectionery 100kcal = 22g Half a serving -3% Pasta 100kcal = 30g ~1 serving -4%

77 INTRODUCTION THE WORLD S EXPANDING WAISTLINE ACTIONS TO CURB APPETITES CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE KEY MESSAGES

78 RECOMMENDATIONS Double Current Efforts or Prepare for Tighter Legislation 78 Sales of packaged food reached US$614 billion in 2014 in Western Europe, with 20% of these sales from sweet snacks With volume sales starting to stagnate, manufacturers need to focus on premiumisation, innovation and indulgence to ensure they see value growth The number of calories that will be purchased in 2019 from packaged products is expected to rise globally and in Western Europe compared to 2014 Manufacturers have already made a large effort to improve the nutritional content of their products, but more effort is needed

79 79 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING ANY QUESTIONS?

80 Follow us on us: Visit our website: 80 #TUTTOFOOD

81 INTRODUCTION Research methodology for Passport Nutrition 81