Alberta Foodservice Forecast
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1 C A N A D I A N R E S T A U R A N T A N D F O O D S E R V I C E S A S S O C I A T I O N Alberta Foodservice Forecast Alberta Foodservice Expo 2011 By Jill Holroyd Senior Vice President, Marketing & Communications
2 About CRFA Mission: Create an environment to allow our members across Canada to grow and prosper.
3 About CRFA Government Affairs Research/Information Member Savings Industry Events
4 Today s Presentation Foodservice Facts and Forecast Consumer Attitudes Menu Trends
5 Today s Presentation Foodservice Facts and Forecast Consumer Attitudes MenuTrends
6 Alberta s Foodservice Industry Annual sales Share of GDP 3.1% $8.4 billion Direct jobs 125,200 Share of workforce 6.2% SOURCE: CRFA and Statistics Canada
7 Number One Source of First Jobs Q: In what industry were you first employed? 1. Restaurant/foodservice 22% 2. Retail 16% 3. Manufacturing 11% 4. Delivering newspapers 8% 5. Agriculture 6% SOURCE: Ipsos and CRFA
8 Number of Restaurants in Alberta 10,000 8,341 8,000 6,251 6,000 4,000 2, SOURCE: ReCount/NPD Group
9 Segment Share of Sales - Alberta Annual Sales Market Share QSR $3. 1 billion 44% FSR $3 billion 42% Caterers $628 million 9% Drinking Places $325 million 5% Total Commercial $7.1 billion 100% SOURCE: Statistics Canada
10 1. Foodservice Sales Growth Since 2001 Alberta Saskatchewan 60% 56% Quebec Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Ontario British Columbia Nova Scotia Manitoba New Brunswick Prince Edward Island 42% 40% 39% 38% 33% 28% 24% 21% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% SOURCE: Statistics Canada (Commercial foodservice)
11 2. Average Annual Unit Volume Alberta Saskatchewan British Columbia Nova Scotia Manitoba Ontario New Brunswick Canada Newfoundland Prince Edward Quebec $754,000 $699,000 $655,000 $637,000 $626,000 $604,000 $601,000 $597,000 $593,000 $581,000 $466,000 $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 SOURCE: Statistics Canada, 2010
12 3. Average Profit Margin Depreciation 3.2% Other 5.6% Pre-tax profit 6.4% Alberta Share of operating revenue Advertising 3.3% Utilities 2.7% Cost of Sales 34.1% Rental and leasing 7.5% Repair and maintenance 2.5% SOURCE: Statistics Canada and CRFA (2009 data) Labour Costs 34.7%
13 Foodservice Sales Growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 10.8% 10.4% 6.4% 8.3% 11.0% 5.9% Alberta 6.8% 4% 3.1% 2.5% 3.3% 2% 2.1% 0% -2% -1.4% SOURCE: Statistics Canada (Commercial foodservice) P preliminary. Based on data for the first half of 2011.
14 2011 Foodservice Sales Growth Newfoundland and Labrador Alberta 6.8% 8.3% Manitoba Saskatchewan Ontario Prince Edward Island Canada Nova Scotia Quebec New Brunswick 4.5% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 1.4% British Columbia -3.6% -5% 0% 5% 10% SOURCE: Statistics Canada (Commercial foodservice) Based on data for the first half of 2011.
15 5. Long Term Foodservice Sales Growth (average annual change, 2012 to 2015) Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario Canada British Columbia Quebec Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% SOURCE: CRFA s Long Term Foodservice Forecast
16 2011 Foodservice Sales Growth - Alberta 15% - Alberta ++ 10% 6.8% 6.9% 5% 4.3% 1.9% 0% Total Full-service restaurants Quick-service restaurants Total Caterers Drinking Places SOURCE: Statistics Canada (Commercial foodservice) Based on data for the first half of 2011.
17 Operator Issues Canada Rising food costs Rising labour costs Weak economy Sales taxes Decline in tourists Bad weather Shortage of qualified labour Weak customer demand Labour shortages Strong Canadian dollar Accessing credit No factors impacting business 38% 34% 33% 25% 21% 19% 16% 9% 2% 55% 66% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q: What issues, if any, are currently having a negative impact on your business? SOURCE: CRFA s Restaurant Outlook Survey
18 Labour Shortages Alberta 20,000 (number of foodservice jobs) 19,128 15,000 13,914 10,000 9,177 5,000 1, SOURCE: Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council
19 Today s Presentation Foodservice Facts and Forecast Consumer Attitudes Menu Trends
20 Where Canadians Source Their Meals All other away-fromhome 7% Ready-toeat grocery meal, eaten in home 2% Skipped 7% Carried from home 8% At a restaurant 8% Purchased from restaurant, eaten in home 2% Prepared and eaten at home 68% SOURCE: The NPD Group/National Eating Trends Canada, YE March 2010
21 Favourite way to spend time with family and friends 1. Going out to a restaurant 2. Outdoor activities 3. Movie theatre 4. Shopping 5. Concert or other event 6. Bar or pub 7. Sporting event 8. Cultural site
22 Why Canadians Eat Out Convenience Indulgence/ treat I am on the go Saves me time I don't want to cook Special occasion Satisfy cravings 43% 40% 34% 34% 32% 28% To spend time with my friends/ family Breaks up my normal routine 28% 26% To try different foods Value for money Inexpensive way to entertain guests 8% 14% 11% SOURCE: Ipsos/Kraft (% of respondents including this answer in their top 3 reasons)
23 Traffic by Daypart Alberta Market Share Breakfast/Brunch 13% AM Snack 10% Lunch 28% Afternoon Snack 14% Supper 26% Evening Snack 9% Total 100% SOURCE: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST \Alberta\YE May 2011
24 Traffic by Daypart Alberta Market Share 2011 over 2010 Growth Breakfast/Brunch 13% 9.6% AM Snack 10% 12.8% Lunch 28% 2.3% Afternoon Snack 14% 9.5% Supper 26% 0.6% Evening Snack 9% -5.8% Total 100% 3.8% SOURCE: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST \Alberta\YE May 2011
25 Traffic by On/Off Premise Alberta Market Share 2011 over 2010 Growth On Premise 43% 4.3% Off Premise 57% 3.5% Carry Out 36% 3.3% Drive Thru 19% 7.0% Delivery 2% -17.1% Total Commercial 100% 3.8% SOURCE: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST \Alberta\YE May 2011
26 But it s about more than convenience (Canadians strongly agreeing with each statement) Eating out is a great way to spend time with friends and family 41% I love trying new foods and flavours 39% I love to try new restaurants 37% When dining out, healthy choices are important to me Eating out is one of my favourite things to do 26% 29% Trying new foods and restaurants is one of my favourite hobbies 15% SOURCE: Ipsos/Kraft
27 NPD s Full-Service Restaurant Dining Report < 10% of consumers motivated by deals and discounts. Food quality Taste Menu diversity 10/3/2011
28 NPD s Full-Service Restaurant Dining Report 76% are adventurous diners 73% want more variety on menus 70% would order ethnic-inspired dishes more frequently, if available 10/3/2011
29 NPD s Full-Service Restaurant Dining Report Top 5 Ethnic Influences 1. Italian 2. Thai 3. Greek 4. Chinese 5. Japanese 10/3/2011
30 Today s Presentation Foodservice Facts and Forecast Consumer Attitudes Menu Trends
31 CRFA S 2011 Chef Survey Survey of more than 500 Canadian chefs Conducted in partnership with Canadian Culinary Federation Identify hot trends, up-andcoming trends, yesterday s news and perennial favourites 10/3/2011
32 Chef Survey - What s Hot for Locally produced food and locally inspired dishes 2. Sustainability 3. Nutrition and health 4. Organics 5. Simplicity/back-to-basics 6. Gluten-free/food allergy conscious 7. Craft beer/microbrews 8. Artisanal cheeses 9. Bite-size/mini desserts 10. Quinoa/Ancient grains SOURCE: CRFA s 2011 Canadian Chef Survey
33 Chef Survey - Up and Coming 1. Gluten-free beer 2. African cuisine 3. Red rice 4. Organic wine/beer/liquor/cocktails 5. Peruvian cuisine 6. New/fabricated cuts of meat 7. Cooking with tea 8. Beer sommeliers/cicerones 9. Culinary cocktails 10. Traditional ethnic desserts SOURCE: CRFA s 2011 Canadian Chef Survey
34 Chef Trends - Perennial Favourites 1. Chocolate desserts 2. Cold appetizer salads 3. Fresh fruit 4. Classical desserts 5. Pie 6. Tuna 7. Aged meats 8. Carbonated beverages/soft drinks 9. Barbeque items 10. Marinades/rubs SOURCE: CRFA s 2011 Canadian Chef Survey
35 Top 10 Foods Alberta Incidence 1. French fries 17% 2. Chicken/poultry entrees 14% 3. Burgers 13% 4. Salads 8% 5. Pizza 6% 6. Chinese/Cantonese/Szechwan 6% 7. Donuts 6% 8. Breakfast sandwich 6% 9. Hot chicken sandwich 5% 10. Soup 4% SOURCE: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST \Alberta\YE May 2011
36 Top 10 Beverages Alberta Incidence 1. Hot coffee 26% 2. Carbonated soft drinks 22% 3. Tap water 6% 4. Alcoholic beverages 6% 5. Juice 5% 6. Hot tea 5% 7. Iced tea 4% 8. Milk 4% 9. Bottled water 4% 10. Iced/slush/frozen coffee 3% SOURCE: The NPD Group Inc.\Foodservice\CREST \Alberta\YE May 2011
37 Summary Restaurants are an important and growing part of the Alberta economy Alberta is leading the way in foodservice sales There is room to grow the market Spending time and saving time are key consumer drivers
38 For more information
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