THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD

Transcription

1 THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD 7 TH NOVEMBER TH ANNUAL IAOM MIDEAST & AFRICA CONFERENCE & EXPO BY LAMINE LAHOUASNIA HEAD OF PACKAGED FOOD RESEARCH

2 EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL About Euromonitor International Global provider of Strategic Market Intelligence 12 Regional offices analysts in 80 countries Cross-country comparable data and analysis Consumer focused industries, countries and consumers 5-10 year forecasts with matching trend analysis All retail channels covered Subscription services, reports and consulting London Chicago Singapore Shanghai Dubai Vilnius Cape Town Santiago Tokyo Sydney Bangalore Sao Paulo 2

3 INTRODUCTION The war for wheat continues 3 Food VS Fuel VS Feed

4 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT

5 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? Bread has always been important to our lives 5

6 Kg Per Capita Bread as a % of Packaged Food STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? and its importance varies significantly Regional Retail Consumption of Bread, % % % % % 50 10% 0 Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe 0% Bread Other Packaged Food Bread %

7 Kg Per Capita STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? but why is it on the decline? World: Retail Consumption of Bread

8 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? Today s reality: Our diets have shifted away from staples 8 Farmers, fisherman, builders Large families Cheap and filling Stew or a soup Lawyers, accountants, designers Small families Tasty and healthy Salad or a snack Yesterday Today

9 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? The core reasons behind the decline of bread 9 Rising affluence Growing coeliac diagnosis Declining consumption of bread High prevalence of diabetes Salt concerns Low carb craze

10 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT

11 BAKING BREAD 2.0 Reformulating for success 11 Salt Sugar Fibre Vitamins Minerals

12 BAKING BREAD 2.0 Appealing to the diet fanatics: Introducing the supergrains 12 All Rounders Teff Amaranth Polenta High Protein Millet Kamut Buckwheat Ancient grains Quinoa High Fibre Bulgur Barley Wheat berries Spelt Farro Protein & Fibre

13 US$ Per Capita on Bakery BAKING BREAD 2.0 Let them have their bread and eat it too: Gluten free Markets: Identifying the Largest Gluten Free Markets, 2013 Norway New Zealand Finland Sweden Gluten Free % of Bakery Value Sales

14 STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT

15 Million Tonnes OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT The decline of bread has been offset primarily by World: Retail Consumption of Flour by Product Beverages Non-Food Other Packaged Food Pastries Noodles Biscuits Pasta Bread

16 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Noodles are spreading outside of traditional East Asian markets 3.5Kg Kg Kg 7.3 Kg OF INSTANT NOODLES PER HEAD IN S. KOREA $4.4 PRICE PER KG OF INSTANT NOODLES Youth PREFER CHEAP, QUICK AND FLEXIBLE FOOD

17 % Brand Share OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Biscuits becoming a bona fide breakfast alternative Selected Markets: Belvita s Performance in Sweet Biscuits Romania France Brazil Ukraine Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Poland

18 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Pastries prove perfect for on the go consumption Demand for Pastry Flour over Other Countries Croissants Russia USA Saudi Arabia China Buns Doughnuts Indonesia Muffins Mexico Other Chinese Pastries Puff Pastries Tarts 478m TONNES MORE FLOUR TO BE USED BY 2015 Clash OF FOREIGN PASTRIES AND CHINESE FLAVOUR Lighter PASTRIES ARE PREFERRED IN CHINA

19 US$ Million OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Growth opportunities for pasta differ greatly across the world 19 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Pasta by Health Positioning Across the World Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America North America FF Pasta Gluten-Free Pasta NH High Fibre Pasta Organic Pasta Reduced Carb Pasta Standard Pasta Australasia Western Europe

20 KEY TAKEAWAYS A few things for you all to remember 20 In retail volume terms it is the most consumed food item worldwide. Growing affluence and shifting diets contribute to its demise. Bread is the no.1 eaten food but its popularity is waning Innovation in other areas are meeting today s changing lifestyles. think noodles, biscuits, pastries and pasta Focusing on health could change its fate Wholemeal, multi-grain and gluten free could all help

21 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Lamine Lahouasnia Head of Packaged Food Research Euromonitor International Britton Street London EC1M 5UX Telephone: +44 (0)