WEEKLY MAIZE REPORT 28 NOVEMBER 2018

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1 WEEKLY MAIZE REPORT 28 NOVEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : INTERNATIONAL MARKET Table 1: CME Maize prices and weekly changes (cents/bushel) Currently 21/11/2018 Weekly change Monthly change (c/bu) (c/bu) CME Dec CME Mar ¾ 372 ¾ ½ US maize prices did come under some pressure with both December and March maize trading lower. On a monthly basis CME December and March are 2.7% lower in the past month. On the technical chart for March CME maize we see that the market broke below the key averages towards the end of November including the 40-day and 100-day. The market sold off further finding some support around $3.68/bushel. A break below this level could see the market targeting $3.60 and the previous lows of around $3.55/bushel. The moving averages remain under pressure but the market is oversold. US maize harvest is mostly complete and there is very little new fundamental news in the market. Market participants await the meeting between the US/China to potentially resolve trade issues. The meeting is scheduled for the end of this week. Looking at the outside markets the dollar posted some more gains in the past week and is trading around to the euro this morning. Crude oil prices remain under pressure with WTI crude finding some support around $50/barrel this which is a level last seen in October USDA crop progress report The USDA in their weekly crop progress report indicated that 94% of the US maize crop has been harvested which is up from the 90% reported last week. The current harvesting progress is very much in line with the 5-year average seen at 96% harvested this time of the year Figure 1: US maize harvesting progress (% complete) US and Argentine prices The graph below presents the US and Argentine FOB prices. From the graph below we see that US FOB prices are trading around $160/ton which is 1.4% lower week/week while Argentine FOB prices are trading just above $166/ton which is 2.6% higher week/week. South American maize and soybean price will be driven to a large extent by the weather conditions in the weeks ahead.

2 18/04/09 18/04/23 18/05/07 18/05/21 18/06/04 18/06/18 18/07/02 18/07/16 18/07/30 18/08/13 18/08/27 18/09/10 18/09/24 18/10/08 18/10/22 18/11/05 18/11/ Figure 2: US and Argentine FOB maize prices US ARG The weather map below presents the rainfall forecast for South America in the week ahead. From the weather map below we see that drier conditions are expected for large parts of the key growing maize and soybean areas of Argentina in the week ahead. Figure 3: South American rainfall forecast week ahead LOCAL MAIZE MARKET South African maize prices posted some strong gains in the past week with white maize contracts leading the way higher. March white and yellow maize contracts gained 6.3% and 2.5% in the past week while the new crop July white maize gained 6.9% in the past week. South African maize prices by far outperformed the US markets in the past week with the weather conditions in our market supporting prices hence white maize gaining more than yellow maize. On the technical chart for March Safex white maize we see that the market did get some support at R2340 and prices surged higher after that breaking above the 100-day and 40-day averages with the short term averages and indicators pulling higher. Resistance is seen at the gap R2533 and the R2635-R2650 highs seen earlier (early September and mid-november). 2

3 18/03/01 18/03/15 18/03/29 18/04/12 18/04/26 18/05/10 18/05/24 18/06/07 18/06/21 18/07/05 18/07/19 18/08/02 18/08/16 18/08/30 18/09/13 18/09/27 18/10/11 18/10/25 18/11/08 18/11/ Figure 4: Safex WM and YM CME and rand/$ (% change) Dec CME Mar CME Rand/$ Safex Mar WM Safex Mar YM Safex Jul WM In dollar terms South African maize prices also posted some gains in the past week with December white maize trading at $174 (+4.4% week/week) while December yellow maize is trading around $169 (+0.75% week/week) Figure 5: Safex December white and yellow maize ($/ton) Dec WM Dec YM South African maize exports The weekly South African maize exports for the week ending the 16 th of November indicated that tons of maize was exported in the past week including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. This brings the cumulative maize exports for the season to date at million tons including tons of white maize and million tons of yellow maize. The maize intended for exports for the 8-weeks ahead through to the 11 th of January point to exports of tons including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. 3

4 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Jul Aug Sep Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Figure 6: Weekly South African white and yellow maize exports White maize Yellow miaze Sagis monthly data The Sagis monthly data was released earlier this week. On the supply side of the South African maize market we see that tons of maize was delivered in October 2018 including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. On the demand side of the South African maize market we see that tons of total maize was processed for the local market which is up from the tons seen in the previous month. This brings the cumulative total maize processed for the local market in the season to date at million tons which is 3.5% higher year/year. The maize processed for the local market in October 2018 was well above the quantity processed this time of the year in the past few seasons. The October 2018 maize processed was the largest monthly total on record. Figure 7: Total maize processed for local market (000 ton) /16 16/17 17/18 18/19 The yellow maize used for feed in October 2018 was reported at tons which is up from the tons seen in the previous month. The yellow maize used as animal feed could increase in the months ahead with white maize once again at a premium compared to yellow maize. 4

5 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Figure 8: Monthly feed usage of yellow maize May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 The white maize used for human consumption in October 2018 was reported at tons which is up from the tons seen in the previous month. The cumulative white maize used for human consumption in the season to date is seen at million tons (+4.9% year/year). The white maize used for animal feed in October 2018 was reported at tons which is up from the tons seen in the previous month. The white maize used as feed in October 2018 was the 2 nd largest monthly total in the season to date. 250 Figure 9: Monthly usage of WM in animal/industrial sector /18 18/19 The South African white maize stocks at the end of October 2018 were reported at million tons which is down from the million tons seen the same time last year. The average monthly demand (local demand excluding exports) is seen at tons and based on this the stock at the end of October should be enough for 8.1 months of consumption. Total exports averaged around tons/month boosting total demand to tons/month and the stocks at the end of October should be enough for 7.5 months of consumption. The yellow maize stocks at the end of October 2018 were reported at million tons which is down from the million tons seen the same time last year. The average local yellow maize consumption in the season to date (excluding exports) is seen at tons and the stocks at the end of October 2018 should be enough for 9.5 months of consumption. However yellow maize exports in the season to date averaged more than tons. But looking at the intended maize exports the yellow maize exports should slow significantly in the 2 nd half of the marketing season. 5

6 Weather forecast The weather conditions have been the major supportive factor for our market in the past week. We did see some rainfall in the eastern growing areas while isolated areas in the Free State also received some rainfall. However the forecast for the week ahead expects mostly dry conditions going into early December. Figure 10: Cumulative rainfall forecast week ahead FOCUS FOR THE WEEK US maize prices ended slightly lower in the past week with a lack of new fundamental news in the market. The harvesting of maize in the US is mostly complete. Market will look towards the US/China meeting due later this week and a possibility to resolve some of the current trade issues. The weather forecast in South America will become more important. At this stage some drier conditions are expected in Argentina in the week ahead. South African maize prices posted strong gains in the past week with white maize and the new crop contracts leading the way higher. The weather conditions are the major driver of our market. The weather forecast at this stage expects mostly dry conditions in the 5-7 days ahead especially in the central and western parts of the country. On the technical chart for March we see that the market broke above the key averages including the 100-day and 40-day. Resistance is seen at R2533 and the R2635-R2650 area. Also see the technical graphs below Safex Mar-17 white maize prices CME Mar-17 corn prices 6

7 Daily MAWH9 Cndl, MAWH9, Trade Price 2018/11/28, , , , , , (+2.19%) SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /11/28, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /11/28, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /11/28, SMA, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), /11/28, /03/ /12/12 (JHB) Price ZAR T Auto RSI, MAWH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/11/28, Value ZAR T March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 Dec 18 Auto 7

8 Daily CH9 Cndl, CH9, Trade Price, 2018/11/28, / 2, / 4, 368, / 4, +0 3 / 4, (+0.20%), SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/11/28, / 8+, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/11/28, 372+, SMA, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/11/28, / /10/ /12/18 (CHG) Price USc Bsh / / / RSI, CH9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/11/28, /8 Value USc Bsh Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec Auto 8

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