QUARTELY MAIZE MARKET ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK BULLETIN 1 OF 2015

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1 QUARTELY MAIZE MARKET ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK BULLETIN 1 OF 2015 INTRODUCTION The following discussion is a review of the maize market environment. The analysis is updated on a quarterly 1 basis and the interval covered in the current issue is from October 2013 to December This period is divided into five, three month long quarters. The key issues discussed in the review are trends in production, prices, trade, growth and volatility. 1. PRODUCTION TRENDS Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis 1 Quarter 1 (January to March), Quarter 2 (April to June), Quarter 3 (July to September), Quarter 4 (October to December) 1

2 Figure 1 above shows the maize production trends and GVP for the period October 2013 to December The figure indicates that the period under review opened with relatively low maize production volume in October 2013 which was followed by a decline in the volume of maize production from November 2013 until December It is also observable from the figure that both gross value and production volumes started to Increase in April 2014 and the increase continued until June The period under review closed with lower volume of maize production/supply in September Maize production volume in December 2014 was about 37% higher compared to the volumes that were produced in the local market during the corresponding month in It is also clear from Figure 1 that the GVP followed a similar trend with production volumes over the period under analysis. 2. PRICING TRENDS 2.1. Domestic Maize Producer Prices Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis Maize is an internationally tradable commodity and as such, the local maize prices are heavily influenced by prices in major producing nations as well other factors such as local supply in relation to demand, the value of rand against other currencies as well prices of production inputs. Figure 2 illustrates that domestic maize producer prices in South Africa ranged between R2 022/ton and R4302/ton during the period under analysis. The period under review opened with relatively moderate producer prices in October 2013 and this was followed by an increase in producer price from November The highest producer price for maize was recorded in April 2014 (R4 302/ton) and the lowest was recorded in October 2013 (R2 204/ton). The period under analysis closed with lower producer price for maize in the third quarter of The maize producer price during the closing month of the period under analysis (December 2014) experienced a decline of about 27.27% compared to the price of the same product during the corresponding month in

3 2.2. Domestic Future Prices Table 1 Commodity Futures Prices (as on 2015/03/10) May 2015 July 2015 September 2015 White maize R /t R /t R /t Yellow maize R /t R /t R /t Source: South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) Table 1 above gives an idea of futures prices for both white and yellow maize. The domestic producer prices for both yellow and white maize are expected to increase between May 2015 and September As of 10 March 2015, May 2015 contracts for white and yellow maize were trading at R /t and R /t respectively. At the same time, the July 2015 contracts were trading at a relatively higher price of R /t for white maize and R /t for yellow maize, mainly due to the expectation of lower supply volumes for maize in the upcoming marketing season (2015/16). Maize producer prices are expected to continue increasing until September IMPORTS AND EXPORTS South Africa is one of the major exporters of maize in the world and the major destinations for the maize exported by South Africa include Japan, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland. The volume and value of maize exported by South Africa over the period under analysis are presented on Figure 3. Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis 3

4 It is observed from figure 3 that the period under review started with moderate levels of maize exports. The period under analysis opened with maize exports volume of about 106 thousand tons in October This was followed by a slow decline in the volume and value of maize exports in November and December The period under analysis closed with low volumes and value of maize exports in December The highest level of exports volumes for maize was recorded in July 2014 (481 thousand tons) and the lowest in December 2014 (21 thousand tons). Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis Figure 4 indicate that the period under analysis opened with lower volumes of maize imports in October The volume of maize imports was generally very low for from October 2013 to February This can be ascribed to the fact that South Africa is the net exporter of maize. The period under review closed with lower volume and value of maize imports in December 2014.The highest maize imports were recorded in March PARITY PRICES According to this maize market analysis and outlook bulletin, the price that farmers receive if they sell their maize on the international market is known as the export parity price. To calculate this, the international commodity price is adjusted by a factor to account for the difference between the location and the quality of maize, as well as the costs that are incurred to export the maize from Durban or Cape Town. The figure is then converted to local currency using the current exchange rate. The import parity price reflects the price that maize millers, traders and feed manufacturers would pay if they had to buy imported maize. 4

5 4.1. Indicative Import Parity Prices For traders, millers and feed manufacturers who would like to import maize from the United States of America and Argentina, Table 2 gives the indicative import parity prices that they would pay. Table 2: Indicative Import Parity Prices for Maize (2015/03/12) Country Import Parity Price USA ARGENTINA FOB Value ($/ton) Freight rate ($/ton) Insurance ($/ton) Cost, Insurance and freight ($/ton) Cost, Insurance and freight (R/ton) Financing Costs (R/ton) Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing Costs (R/ton) Discharging costs (R/ton) at: Cape Town Harbor Durban Harbor Import Tariff F.O.R (R/ton) at: Cape Town Harbor Durban Harbor Delivered Price: Durban Randfontein Railage (R /ton) Delivered price (R/ton) Exchange rate (1$=) Source: SAGIS Table 2 shows that it is relatively expensive to import a ton of maize from USA as compared to importing the same product from Argentina. It is further evident that a ton of maize from the USA costs US$179.00; while the same quantity from Argentina costs US$ Freight costs when importing from USA are charged at US$30.00per ton as opposed to US$18.00/ton in Argentina. Eventually importers would pay R /ton to import maize from the USA as opposed to R /ton that they would pay if they were to import the same product from Argentina at an exchange rate of R12.16 to a US dollar. The costs of moving maize from Argentina to South Africa are lower than that from the USA, leading to lower import parity price for maize originating from Argentina compared to the one originating from USA. 5

6 4.2. Indicative Export Parity Prices A ton of maize in the international market sells at US$ Taking into account US$10 which is the difference in quality and location between the two countries a ton will sell at US$ which is equivalent to R after taking into account an exchange rate of to a US Dollar. In the case of exporters who wish to export maize to the international market through the Durban harbor; a ton of maize will earn R after taking into account the financing costs of R17.47ton, railage costs of R400.09/ton and loading costs at the Durban harbor of R141.07/ton. Table 3: Indicative Export Parity Prices (2015/03/12) Commodity USA Maize FOB Gulf value ($/ton) Difference in SA quality and locality from SA maize: (Plus US$10/ton) SA FOB price ($/ton) Exchange rate (1$=) SA Maize FOB Gulf value (R/ton) Marketing Costs Financing (at 8.50% Prime rate) (R/ton) Railage: Randfontein - Durban (R/ton) Loading costs (R/ton) at: Durban Harbor Export Realization (R/ton): Durban Harbor ( FOB price less Marketing costs) Source: SAGIS ` Growth, Volatility and Stability Maize industry growth was calculated, and the volatility and stability measures were determined by calculating the coefficient of variation for the various maize industry statistical series. The formulae for these values are as follows: Growth Rate G = [(B A)/A]*100 where: G = Growth Rate B = Values of Variables during the closing month of the duration under analysis A = Values of Variables during the corresponding month of the previous year 6

7 Volatility and Stability Analysis x V i N where: V = Coefficient of Variation = Standard deviation = mean = observation in months i x i N = Number of months The outcomes of these growth and volatility calculations are presented in Table 4. They are calculated using monthly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in October 2013 and ending December Table 4: Maize industry Growth Rates and Variation Coefficients (October 2013 December 2014) Category Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of variation Production Volume Volume Gross Value Value Producer Prices Value Exports Volume Value Imports Volume Value Source: Calculated from Statistics and Economic Analysis Data Table 4 indicates that domestic maize production and supply increased by 36.69% in volume and declined by 0.59% in value in December 2014 compared to what was produced locally during the corresponding month in It is also observable from the table that maize producer prices decreased by 27.27% over the same period while exports also declined by 54.92%% in volume and 38.78% in value. Volume of maize imports increased by 31.11%, while the import value increased by 91.82% over the same period. Domestic maize production (in both volume and value terms) and imports were highly volatile over the period under review while maize producer prices and export value remained relatively stable over the period under analysis. 7

8 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: 1. Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis 2. South African Grain Information Services For more information contact: Director: Marketing Tel: (012) Fax: (012) Deputy Director: Commodity Marketing Tel: (012) Fax: (012) Senior Agricultural Economist: Field Crops Marketing Tel: (012) Fax: (012) Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the purposes of detailing the maize industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department with regard to the industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability for losses incurred resulting from the use of this information. 8

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