Monthly Economic Letter

Transcription

1 Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT After some upward movement in April, most benchmark prices turned lower in early May. After climbing to the upper end of its trading range and testing values near in April, prices for the July NY futures contract have decreased in May. Current values near 77 are virtually even with those one month ago. Prices for the NY December futures contract, which are interpreted as a reflection of price expectations with the 2017/18 harvest, also moved higher and lower over the past month. In early April, prices were near 72. By late April, values were near 75. In early May, prices fell, and current values are near 72. The A Index posted its highest value of the crop year (89.1 ) May 3rd. Since then, the A Index has eased slightly, with current values near 87. In early April, values were near 85. The China Cotton (CC) Index edged marginally higher over the past month. In international terms, prices rose from 104 to 105. In domestic terms, the prices rose from 15,0 to 16,000 RMB/ton. Chinese futures prices (Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, ZCE) trended higher throughout most of April, but sharply reversed direction in the second week of May. Values for the most actively traded September futures contract are currently near 15,500 RMB/ton. Prices for the January futures contract, which reflect price expectations after the conclusion of the current auction from reserves and after the 2017/18 harvest, are trading a slight premium to nearby futures prices with current values near 15,700 RMB/ton. Cash prices for the Indian Shankar-6 variety decreased in international terms over the past month, falling from 85 to 83. In domestic terms, values dropped from 44,000 to 42,000 INR/candy. Pakistani prices were stable over the past month (near 78 in international terms and near 6,750 PKR/maund in domestic terms). SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE This month s USDA report is the first to include a complete set of forecasts for the 2017/18 crop year. Estimates indicate that both world production and mill-use will increase in the coming season. The global cotton harvest is projected to increase by 7.3 million bales (+7%, from in 2016/17 to million in 2017/18). World mill-use is projected to increase by 2.6 million bales (+2%, from in 2016/17 to million in 2017/18). Consumption is expected to exceed production for the third consecutive crop year. However, the size of the shortfall is estimated to only be 2.5 million bales, which is considerably smaller than the deficits of 14.4 million bales in 2015/16 and 7.3 million bales in 2016/17. Nonetheless, a production level below mill-use implies a corresponding reduction in ending stocks. The distribution of stocks remains important for the market. China, where government controlled reserves are intermittently available, is expected to reduce supplies by 9.1 million bales in 2017/18 (-19%, from 48.7 million bales to 39.6 million bales. With a slight increase in Chinese mill-use, this drawdown in stocks generates a stocks-to-use ratio of 106%, which remains more than twice NY Nearby & A Index Higher Then Lower, CC Index Stable CC Index () A Index NY Nearby Recent Price Data Latest Value (May 10) Latest Month (Apr) MAY 2017 Last 12 Months (May16-Apr17) NY Nearby A Index CC Index Indian Spot Pakistani Spot Additional price data available here. Price definitions available here. World Balance Sheet million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 Beg. Stocks Production Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 87.3% 79.1% 75.3% China Balance Sheet million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 Beg. Stocks Production Imports Mill-Use Exports Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 165.7% 131.4% 105.6% World-Less-China Balance Sheet million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 Beg. Stocks Production Imports from China Mill-Use Exports to China Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 48.3% 50.4% 57.0% Additional balance sheet data available here.

2 the average in the decade preceding the price spike and the massive accumulation of stocks in China. Outside of China, stocks are forecast to increase 6.7 million bales (+16%, from 40.8 to 47.5 million bales). Since this cotton is generally available for trade, the increase in cotton supply outside of China can be expected to exert downward pressure on prices. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world outside of China is forecast to increase from 50% to 57%, reaching its highest level since China joined the WTO (2001). Nearly every cotton producing country is expected to grow more in 2017/18. The largest year-over-increases are expected in the U.S. (+2.0 million bales, from 17.2 to 19.2), India (+1.5 million, from 26.5 to 28.0), China (+0.8 million, from 22.8 to 23.5), Pakistan (+0.8 million, from 7.7 to 8.5), Turkey (+0.5 million, from 3.2 to 3.7), and Australia (+0.4 million, from 4.4 to 4.8). In terms of mill-use, the largest year-over-year changes are for Vietnam (+0.6 million bales, from 5.3 to 5.9), China (+0.5 million, from 37.0 to 37.5), Bangladesh (+0.4 million, from 6.5 to 6.9), Turkey (+0.3 million, from 6.3 to 6.6 million), and India (+0.3 million, from 23.8 to 24.0). Global trade is expected to grow slightly (+3%, from 36.5 to 37.6 million bales). Countries with the largest expected increases in imports include Vietnam (+0.8 million bales, from 5.4 to 6.2), Bangladesh (+0.8 million, from 6.3 to 7.0), Turkey (+0.3 million, from 3.2 to 3.4), and China (+0.2 million, from 4.8 to 5.0). A notable decrease in imports is forecast for India (-0.8 million bales, from 2.5 to 1.8). Among exporters, the largest year-over-year gains are predicted for Australia (+0.5 million, from 3.8 to 4.3), Brazil (+0.3 million, from 2.9 to 3.2), India (+0.3 million, from 4.2 to 4.5). In 2017/18, the U.S. is forecast to export half a million bales less than in 2016/17 (from 14.5 million bales to 14.0 million). PRICE OUTLOOK The market is facing a mix of contradictory forces. Exportable 2016/17 supplies have drawn tight and this has been supportive of nearby prices. Technical factors related to high speculative positions and the large volume of unfixed on-call sales tied to the July NY futures contract may prove to be sources of volatility in the next few months. In 2017/18, the collective market outside of China faces a larger harvest, limited demand growth, and the possibility of a significant buildup in stocks. The potential accumulation of supply outside of China is likely why NY December futures have been trading at a discount relative to nearby prices. Within China, the ability to coordinate the transition from supply sold at auction to the domestic harvest can be expected to influence Chinese price direction. The potential for disruption in supply, such as those experienced last fall, is a likely reason why Chinese (ZCE) January futures have been trading at a premium to nearby Chinese futures. Globally, it remains very early relative to 2017/18, and the eventual set of supply and demand statistics can be expected to differ from current forecasts. Variables to watch include the weather, the release of any information related to the timing and magnitude of possible increases in Chinese import quota, as well as any other significant changes to government policies in major countries. World Cotton Production million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 India China United States Pakistan Brazil Rest of World World World Cotton Mill-Use million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Rest of World World World Cotton Exports million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Rest of World World World Cotton Imports million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 Bangladesh Vietnam China Turkey Indonesia Rest of World World World Cotton Ending Stocks million 4 lb. bales 2016/ / /16 China India Brazil United States Pakistan Rest of World World Additional supply and demand data available here. Please forward comments and questions to marketinformation@cottoninc.com To subscribe to the Monthly Economic Letter click here and follow the instructions in the Subscriptions box on the left side of the page. Sources: Price data from Reuters, Cotlook, Cotton Assn. of India, and Karachi Cotton Assn. Supply, demand, and trade data from the USDA. Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from public and private subscriber news sources believed to be reliable; however, Cotton Incorporated cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use of this information and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. The information contained herein should not be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions. This communication is not intended to forecast or predict future prices or events Cotton Incorporated. All rights reserved; America's Cotton Producers and Importers

3 Charts - Daily Charts - Monthly Tables List of Charts and Tables A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons) One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Prices A Index NY Nearby One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Prices RMB/ton local terms (RMB/ton) 16,750 16, , , ,750 13, ,250 11,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

4 One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) 100 local terms (INR/candy, candy= kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40, , , ,000 One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Prices local terms (PKR/maund, maund = kg) 8,000 PKR/maund 7, , , Note: Movement in prices in and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates. 4, ,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

5 Three Years of Monthly A Index and NY Nearby Prices A Index NY Nearby Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Prices local terms (RMB/ton) RMB/ton 20,500 19, , , , ,000 11,500 10, ,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

6 100 Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) local terms (INR/candy, candy= kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40, , , ,000 Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Prices 100 local terms (PKR/maund, maund = kg) 9,000 PKR/maund 8,000 7, , , ,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

7 World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Supply Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 85.0% 94.1% 100.3% 87.3% 79.1% 75.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 139.7% 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 131.4% 105.6% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports from China Supply Mill-Use Exports to China Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 45.0% 45.4% 52.3% 48.3% 50.4% 57.0%

8 India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 40.0% 35.2% 47.0% 36.5% 42.9% 46.5% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 23.0% 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 18.0% 28.7% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 24.2% 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 23.7% 26.2%

9 World Cotton Production India China United States Pakistan Brazil Australia Turkey Uzbekistan Burkina Turkmenistan Mali Greece Mexico Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Exports United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Burkina Mali Greece Turkmenistan Benin Cote d'ivoire Cameroon Pakistan Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World

10 World Cotton Mill-Use China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Vietnam United States Brazil Indonesia Mexico Uzbekistan Thailand South Korea Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Imports Bangladesh Vietnam China Turkey Indonesia Pakistan India Thailand South Korea Mexico Taiwan Malaysia Egypt Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total

11 World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Supply Mill-Use Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 85.0% 94.1% 100.3% 87.3% 79.1% 75.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 139.7% 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 131.4% 105.6% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports from China Supply Mill-Use Exports to China Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 45.0% 45.4% 52.3% 48.3% 50.4% 57.0%

12 India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 40.0% 35.2% 47.0% 36.5% 42.9% 46.5% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 23.0% 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 18.0% 28.7% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Mill-Use Exports Demand Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 24.2% 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 23.7% 26.2%

13 World Cotton Production India China United States Pakistan Brazil Australia Turkey Uzbekistan Burkina Turkmenistan Mali Greece Mexico Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World World Cotton Exports United States India Australia Brazil Uzbekistan Burkina Mali Greece Turkmenistan Benin Cote d'ivoire Cameroon Pakistan Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World

14 World Cotton Consumption China India Pakistan Bangladesh Turkey Vietnam United States Brazil Indonesia Mexico Uzbekistan Thailand South Korea Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total World Cotton Imports Bangladesh Vietnam China Turkey Indonesia Pakistan India Thailand South Korea Mexico Taiwan Malaysia Egypt Rest of World African Franc Zone EU World Total