World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 1-16 January 2016 Agricultural South Africa s Corn: and Down due to Lack of Rain October through December hampered planting and emergence during the optimal planting season. Planting typically begins after sufficient rainfall has been received. South Africa s 2015/16 corn production forecast was reduced to 8.0 million metric tons, down 4.0 million tons from last month and down 2.8 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.2 million hectares, down 0.8 million hectares from last month and last year. The forecast yield is 3.63 tons per hectare, down 10 percent from the 5-year average. was significantly reduced due to insufficient start-of-season rainfall for planting and emergence in the western corn belt. Sparse rainfall from Landsat-8 satellite imagery shows mostly bare fields in the western corn belt at the end of December. In addition, vegetative indices from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite imagery showed very little vegetation emerged by early January, especially within the western corn belt of western Free State and North-west provinces. A lack of rainfall delayed planting by 40 days or more in the eastern corn belt of KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and eastern Free State provinces. Below average yields are expected within the Approved by the Agricultural Outlook Board

2 eastern corn belt due to delayed planting and below average rainfall during the current growing season. (For more information, please contact China Corn: Rebounds from Last Year s Drought Stricken Crop China s 2015/16 corn production estimate was revised slightly this month to a record million metric tons, up 8.9 million tons from last year due to higher planted area and improved yield. Harvested area is estimated at 38.1 million hectares, up 1.0 million hectares from last year and is the tenth consecutive year-toyear area increase. is estimated at 5.89 tons per hectare, up 1.4 percent from last year but down 2.0 percent from the record set in. The revision is based on data published by China s National Bureau of Statistics in December. Although province level data for 2015/16 is not yet available, analysis suggests a significant year-to-year production increase in the Northeast, China s most important corn-growing region, following last year s drought. Estimated corn production also increased in Northwest China (Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shaanxi provinces) and Henan province on the North China Plain. in China has been steadily increasing in response to government policies that encouraged grain production, such as subsidies for inputs, a minimum procurement price that is significantly above the world price, and large government stock purchases. The introduction of new hybrid varieties has enabled corn planting to extend northward into areas formerly sown to soybeans. Corn has also replaced cotton, minor grains, and fodder crops that are generally less profitable. Since 2006, China s corn area and production has increased by 36 percent and 48 percent, respectively. (For more information, please contact Paulette.Sandene@fas.usda.gov.) 2

3 Russia Corn: Estimated Reduced but Still a Record Russia corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at a record 13.0 million metric tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month but up 1.7 million tons from last year. The month-to-month decrease is based on analysis of harvest data from Rosstat, the state statistical agency. Harvested area is estimated at a record 2.65 million hectares, down slightly from last month but slightly surpassing last year s record. is estimated at 4.91 tons per hectare, down 1.9 percent from last month, up 13 percent from last year, and 17 percent above the 5-year average. On December 25, Rosstat released preliminary data citing corn output at 12.7 million tons from harvested area of 2.6 million hectares, with a yield of 4.90 tons per hectare. Final production data typically is published in April, and for the past four years the final reported output for corn has surpassed the preliminary figure by at least 0.2 million tons. The difference is most likely attributable to a combination of end-of-season harvest and routine delays in the collection of harvest data. The difference between preliminary and final yield, meanwhile, has been negligible. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Ukraine Corn: Harvest Approaches Completion Ukraine corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at 23.5 million metric tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month but down 5.0 million tons from last year. The revision is based on an increase in the estimated harvested area, from 4.0 to 4.1 million hectares. is estimated at 5.73 tons per hectare, virtually unchanged from last month but down 6.8 percent from last year. Reports from the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food indicate that output had reached 23.3 million tons from 4.07 million hectares as of December 18, and that over 98 percent of the planted area had been harvested by that date. Severe drought prevailed throughout the growing season in the western half of Ukraine, but the low yields in the western territories were offset by above normal yields farther east. Preliminary harvest data will be released by the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine in mid-january. (For more information, please contact Mark.Lindeman@fas.usda.gov.) Brazil Soybeans: Unchanged at a Record 100 Million Tons USDA forecasts Brazil s 2015/16 soybean production at a record million metric tons, unchanged from last month and up 3.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is unchanged and is estimated at a record 33.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares from last year. is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the 5-year average. 3

4 Heat and dryness in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil has heightened concerns among forecasters causing some to reduce their estimates. Planting is complete and the high temperatures may have resulted in some damage to soybeans at pod set and pod fill, especially in Mato Grosso Brazil s largest soybean producing state. IMEA the state agency in Mato Grosso conducted an online survey of crop conditions in mid-december and reported that 43 percent were in poor to very poor conditions. IMEA lowered their yield estimate to 3.05 from 3.16 tons per hectare. Early harvest results have been poor. Recent rains in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil may have ameliorated the dryness. Meanwhile in southern Brazil (Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina accounting for 35 percent of production) rains continued boosting yield prospects for soybeans. DERAL the state agency in Parana increased their yield estimates to 3.44 from 3.39 tons per hectare. Satellite-derived vegetation indices show conditions near normal and slightly below last year for most areas including Mato Grosso in contrast to the reported crop conditions. Progress of the soybean crop in Mato Grosso is mixed according to the Crop Enhancement Index (CEI) with normal progress west of BR-163 and delayed progress east of BR-163. The CEI is a measurement of biomass differences between the minimal levels during the dry season and the increased amounts during the rainy season. 4

5 Planting was delayed in western Bahia, a minor area with about 3 percent of national production. The recent rains at the end of December and continued rains in January will be needed to reach average yield potential. (For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.) Pakistan Cotton: Estimated Output decreased based on Arrival Data USDA estimates Pakistan s 2015/16 cotton production at 7.2 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.8 million bales from last month and down 3.4 million bales from last year. harvested is estimated at 2.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 0.15 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 560 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 10 percent from last month, down 28 percent from last year, and down 22 percent from the 5-year average. Harvest is almost complete and for two consecutive months, December and January, USDA has reduced estimated production by 11 and 10 percent, respectively. The major reason for these downward revisions are continued reports of significantly poor productivity across the major cotton growing provinces Punjab and Sindh. s are reported at record low levels due to widespread Whitefly and cotton leaf curl virus infestations. Treatment was ineffective because farmers cutback on chemical use in an effort to reduce costs. Farmers also limited the number of cotton pickings. Cotton picking labor costs are relatively higher this year, 400 to 500 Rupees per 40 kg, further reducing the farmers cash profit. Harvest of the early crop (sown in February) started in June; harvest of the late crop (planted in May) began September. The peak harvest is typically in October. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner s Association (PCGA), cumulative seed cotton arrivals at gins at the end of December are down approximately 33 percent from the same time last year. At the provincial level, the arrivals are down 45 percent in Punjab and 5 percent in Sindh. USDA analysis based on satellite-derived vegetation indices show significant variation in biomass and crop vigor. Early-to-mid season crop conditions were favorable; but conditions deteriorated beginning in mid-season due to ideal conditions in Punjab for infestations of Whitefly and Cotton leaf curl virus. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov.) 5

6 Philippine Rice: Forecast Higher on Revised Typhoon Losses Philippine 2015/16 rice production is forecast at 11.5 million tons (milled basis), up 0.25 million tons from last month but down 0.4 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.65 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month but down 0.06 million from last year. is estimated above-average at 3.93 tons per hectare. Super Typhoon Koppu struck prime rice-growing areas in the northern island of Luzon in mid- October 2015, causing widespread flooding and reports of extensive wind-related crop damage. The typhoon slowly meandered over the island for seven consecutive days, inundating crops at or near harvest stage with up to 43 inches of rainfall. Initial post-disaster crop loss estimates from the government and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) indicated up to 1.1 million tons of paddy was lost (0.7 MMT milled basis). Final field assessments from the Philippine government in December, however, indicated losses were not that high. The typhoon s torrential rains had replenished Luzon s main irrigation reservoirs which will enable greater irrigated crop acreage during the remainder of The government is forecasting higher rice area and production in the final two quarters of the 2015/16 growing season as a result of the improved irrigation supply. Approximately 40 percent of annual rice production occurs in the January to June period, which marks the last half of the USDA 2015/16 marketing year. (For more information, please contact Micheal.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) 6

7 Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-549), January 12, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, February 9, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 7

8 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Vacant Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Vacant

9 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Archives Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

10 Table 01 Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others Million metric tons--- Wheat /15 prel /16 proj. Dec Jan Coarse Grains 1, /15 prel. 1, /16 proj. Dec 1, Jan 1, Rice, Milled /15 prel /16 proj. Dec Jan Total Grains 2, , /15 prel. 2, , /16 proj. Dec 2, , Jan 2, , Oilseeds /15 prel /16 proj. Dec Jan Cotton /15 prel /16 proj. Dec Jan / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

11 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

12 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

13 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent , United States Total Foreign China Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

14 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

15 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

16 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

17 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

18 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

19 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

20 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

21 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others

22 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China Africa Nigeria Sudan Senegal Cameroon Ghana Chad Malawi Congo (Kinshasa) Niger Mali Uganda Burkina Guinea Egypt Central African Republic South Africa Mozambique Cote d'ivoire Benin South Asia India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand Argentina Brazil Mexico Others

23 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan 2014/15 Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan European Union Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China South Asia India Pakistan Middle East Turkey Iran Israel Africa Egypt Morocco South Africa Burma Canada Australia Others