Trade Economics of Olives and Olive Oil: Data and Issues. Sacramento Valley Olive Day. Orland, July 6, 2018

Transcription

1 Trade Economics of Olives and Olive Oil: Data and Issues Sacramento Valley Olive Day Orland, July 6, 2018 Daniel A. Sumner and William A. Matthews University of California Agricultural Issues Center

2 Motivation, Orientation, and Overview International agricultural trade is in the headlines these days and concerns abound what does trade turmoil mean for farms? Economics underlie almost every decision in agriculture and international trade affects both costs and returns Import access to the US affects farm input costs, and competition in domestic markets. Access for US exports affects output demand and prices for most California farm products. We know more open markets have been broadly good for economic growth and incomes over the past 70 years, but governments are often motivated to limit market access and impose import taxes Olives are different from most California commodities in that exports are minimal, while import competition is robust

3 Index of US Olive Acres, Yield and Total Production, : Acres = 35,300 Yield = 2.55 tons/acre Production= 90,000 tons : Acres = 36, Bearing Acres Yield = 5.34 tons/acre - Total Production - Yields per Acre Source: USDA ERS Production= 192,300 tons

4 120 Utilization of US Produced Olives, Volume of Olive (1,000 short tons) Canned Crushed for Oil Source: USDA ERS

5 Olive Oil Supply (million pounds) Source of Available Supply of Olive Oil Marketed in US 800 US Production I Imports Source: USDA ERS

6 2017 US Olive Oil Imports by Source Total $1.44 billion ($millions) Argentina $63.9 Turkey $63.8 EU $1,192.0 Tunisia $61.9 Chile $33.4 Source: US Dept of Commerce Rest of World $31.5

7 2017 US Olive Oil Imports by Olive Oil Grade Total $1.44 billion ($millions) Refined $331 Virgin $36 Extra Virgin $1,048 Source: US Dept of Commerce

8 2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil Imports by Source Total $1.05 billion ($ million) Rest of World $21.6 Turkey $23.2 Chile $33.2 Tunisia $44.4 Argentina $61.2 EU $864.5 Source: US Dept of Commerce

9 2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil Imports From EU by Country Total $864.5 million ($ million) Rest of EU $3.3 Greece $39.2 Italy $447.7 Spain $374.3 Source: US Dept of Commerce

10 2017 US Olive Oil Exports by Destination Country Total $28.2 million ($ million) Rest of World $6.5 Japan $0.6 Taiwan $1.8 EU $3.3 Canada $11.0 Mexico $5.0 Source: US Dept of Commerce

11 Farm trade news has mostly about lost exports Almost all the news about farm trade this year has been about the treat of trade policy turmoil has been causing for exports This makes sense because most major US commodities are export dependent and the countries targeted for new US trade barriers are the largest import markets Commodities are dairy products, beef, pork, tree nuts, wine, fresh vegetables as well corn and soybeans are highly vulnerable The threats and actions change every few days and sometimes solutions seem close, but as of this week, new US tariffs are in place and retaliation has begun There may be some good result envisioned but for agriculture the costs are already real.

12 Volume of Table Olives (million pounds)400 Source of Available Supply of Table Olives Marketed in US / / / / /17 Source: USDA ERS US Production Imports

13 Value of Imports ($1 million) US Table Olive Import Value and Volume, $ $415 $405 $395 $385 I- - Value Volume (MTs) 170 $ $365 $355 $345 $335 $ Source: US Dept of Commerce Volume of Imports (1,000 MTs)

14 $3,200 Unit Value of US Table Olive Imports, Unit Value per Metric Ton $3,000 $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 $2,200 $2, Source: US Dept of Commerce

15 2017 US Table Olive Imports by Source Total $387 million ($ million) EU $337.3 Morocco $24.8 Egypt $7.0 Turkey $5.5 Peru $4.2 Source: US Dept of Commerce Rest of World $8.4

16 2017 US Table Olive Imports From EU by Country Total $382.2 million ($ million) Greece $145.8 Italy $21.7 Spain $204.8 Portugal $6.9 Rest of EU $3.1 Source: US Dept of Commerce

17 2017 U.S. Table Olive Imports by Product Tariff Line Description Total $387 million ($million) All other trariff Lines $126 Whole Stuffed Green Olives, Containter less than 8KG $102 Source: US Dept of Commerce Broken or sliced salad style Green Oives, Container less than 8KG $21 Whole Not Pitted Green Oives $35 Sliced Not- Green Olives, Canned $61 Whole Pitted Not- Green Olives, Not Canned $43

18 2017 US Table Olive Exports by Destination Total $12.4 million ($ million) EU $0.7 Rest of World $2.8 Mexico $0.7 Canada $4.2 Source: US Dept of Commerce Korea $0.9 China $0.9 Japan $2.2

19 2016/17 Global Table Olive Production by Source Total 2.7 million metric tons (1,000 MTs) Rest of World Morocco Syria Spain Egypt Source: International Olive Council Greece Algeria Turkey 433.0

20 2016 Global Table Olive Exports by Source Total thousand tons (1,000 tons) Turkey 57 Rest of World 116 Spain 315 Egypt 67 Argentina 67 Source: GTA Database Morocco 99 Greece 146

21 Thank you aic.ucdavis.edu