World Agricultural Production

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1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 3-16 March 2016 Agricultural Philippines Corn: El Niño-Induced Drought Reduces Estimated Philippines 2015/16 corn production is forecast at 7.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.3 million metric tons or 3.8 percent from last month and down 2.2 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.5 percent from last year. is forecast at 2.89 tons per hectare, slightly above-average. An El Niño weather event has been influencing the rainfall pattern in Southeast Asia over the past year, and contributed to well-below normal rainfall in major southern corn growing areas on the island of Mindanao. Owing to deficient rainfall in January and February 2016, crops on Mindanao are experiencing severe drought stress. prospects are deteriorating. On average, Philippine farmers produce approximately 2.0 mmt of corn during the 1 st quarter (January to March), of which Mindanao accounts for roughly 825,000 tons or 41 percent of the quarterly total. Satellitederived vegetation indices from the MODIS satellite depict extremely poor vegetation conditions in the main 1 st quarter corn growing areas on Mindanao. Corn is grown throughout the year in the Philippines, with the 1 st and 3 rd quarters being the most important. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) Approved by the Agricultural Outlook Board

2 South Africa Corn: Dryness in the West Continues to Reduce Forecast South Africa s 2015/16 corn production forecast was reduced to 6.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5 mmt or 7.1 percent from last month and down 4.3 mmt or 40 percent from last year. is estimated at 1.9 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last month and down 1.1 million hectares from last year. The forecast yield is 3.42 tons per hectare, down 15 percent from the 5-year average. Both reductions were based on below-average February rainfall in the Free State and North West provinces. Earlier dryness had already delayed planting in this region until mid-january, after the optimum period, and satellite imagery indicates bare fields in mid-february. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov.) China Corn: Record Due to Higher and China corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at million metric tons, up 8.9 million or 4.1 percent from last year based on higher area and yield. is estimated at a record 38.1 million hectares, up 2.7 percent from last year. has increased each of the last ten years and is now nearly 10 million hectares higher than in 2006/07. The largest area increases have occurred in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia (located in Northeast China) where corn has displaced soybeans and minor grain crops. The estimated yield of 5.89 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha) is up 1.4 percent from last year, but below the record yield of 6.02 mt/ha set in. Although most corn-growing areas of China had generally favorable weather last summer, localized summer drought had a negative impact on yields in parts of northern China. 2

3 For several years, China has been strongly supporting corn production through subsidies, high guaranteed procurement prices, and large government purchases. These measures made growing corn more lucrative than soybeans, cotton, and many other crops. Rapid expansions in sown area and rising yield over the past decade have led to successive bumper crops and the accumulation of huge and burdensome government-held stocks. The Chinese government recently announced new polices that should lead to lower sown area and production over the next five years. It reduced the procurement price for the 2015/16 crop by about 10 percent. With plans to offer financial incentives for farmers in marginal areas to plant alternative crops (including soybeans, potatoes, silage corn, and spring wheat) and adopt crop rotation and conservation practices. (For more information, please contact Argentina Corn: Harvest Underway and Estimated Unchanged The 2015/16 Argentina corn harvest is just beginning on early-planted fields in the mid-central region of the country and will continue through June. Timely rains recharged soil moisture in February and early March after dryness in January, supporting the current production estimate of 27 million metric tons, unchanged from last month and last year. is estimated at 3.4 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 3.0 percent increase from last year. is estimated at 7.94 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month and 2.9 percent lower than last year. Harvest is beginning in Santa Fe, Corrientes, and in central Entre Ríos provinces with yields reported as above average. (For additional information, please contact, Brazil Soybean: Estimated Remains at Record Level USDA forecasts Brazil s 2015/16 soybean production at a record million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month and up 3.8 mmt or 4.0 percent from last year. Harvested area is unchanged at a record 33.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million or 3.7 percent from last year. is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the 5-year average. A slow start of the seasonal rains in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil in conjunction with high early season temperatures led some forecasters to reduce their estimates for early planted soybeans. By early January, however, rain intensified throughout Brazil s central and northeastern farming areas, improving conditions for the soybean crop. At the same time, a continuation of beneficial rain maintained favorable corn and soybean prospects throughout southern Brazil. Harvest has just begun and early yield observations are better than expected. As of February 29, harvest was 33 percent complete compared to 28 percent last year and the 5-year average of 29 percent. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.) 3

4 India Cotton: Estimated Decreased on Low Market Arrivals USDA estimates India s 2015/16 cotton production at 26.8 million bales (480-pound bales), down 3.6 percent or 1 million bales from last month and down 9.2 percent from last year. The downward revision is based on reports of low market arrivals. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 7.1 percent from last year. is estimated at a 5-year low of 494 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 3.7 percent from last month and down 2.4 percent from last year. In the past five years India s cotton area and yields have averaged million hectares and 530 kg/ha, respectively. Cotton harvest in India is almost complete and for three consecutive months, January, February and March, USDA has decreased estimated production by 1.8, 0.7 and 3.6 percent, respectively. The major factors shaping the downward revision are reports of significantly lower productivity across the major cotton-growing regions. s are reported at record low levels attributed to several factors including early monsoon withdrawal and widespread whitefly and cotton leaf curl virus infestations in the northern regions. In a good season, farmers pick fields four to five times during February and March. This year, however, mixed conditions have discouraged farmers from extended pickings and some fields may be picked only three times. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov). Australia Wheat: Estimated Reduced Based on Revised Data Australia wheat production for 2015/16 is estimated 24.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5 million from last month, but up 1.4 million from last season. Harvested area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares (mha) compared to 13.8 mha last month and 12.2 mha last year. Revised data from Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) led to the lower area estimate. is estimated at 1.92 metric tons per hectare, up 2.1 percent from last month and up 1.1 percent from last year, but 2.5 percent below the 5-year average. The revised yield estimate is based on regression analysis incorporating MODIS satellite derived vegetative indices employing state-level yield data. Generally favorable conditions from May (when sowing began) through August were followed by dryness from mid-september through mid-october. In the east, wheat harvesting begins in central Queensland during August and progresses down the east coast to Victoria and South Australia and reaches completion in 4

5 January. On the west coast, the harvest starts during October and is completed in January. (For more information, please contact Indonesia Rice: Estimated and Decrease Following Deficient Rainfall Indonesia s 2015/16 rice production is forecast at 35.3 million metric tons (milled basis), down 1.0 million tons or 2.8 percent from last month and down 0.7 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 11.7 million hectares, down 4.1 percent from last month and down 1.4 percent from last year. is estimated at an above-average 4.77 tons per hectare. The current strong El Niño weather pattern has suppressed rainfall over a wide swath of southeastern Asia during 2015 and early 2016, and is currently affecting the Indonesian archipelago. Rainfall in Indonesia s prime rice growing areas on the islands of Java, Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan has been both erratic and deficient, forcing farmers to delay planting operations well beyond the optimal period during the current wet season which runs from October through April. Planting typically occurs with the onset of rains in October and is completed by late November. This year, many farmers had to delay rice planting into late January and early February. Mild-to-moderate drought conditions currently exist in many 1 st - crop rice growing areas in Indonesia. Rainfed rice is particularly vulnerable during periods of low rainfall. It is expected that rainfed rice area will decline in 2015/16 in all three annual growing seasons (in both wet and dry season periods). Rainfed rice is cultivated on approximately 1.2 million hectares or 10 percent of total national rice area. Farmers faced with similar conditions in 2014/15 either left upland rainfed rice fields fallow during the dry season or switched to alternative corn, soybean, peanut, or mung bean crops which require less moisture. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) 5

6 Lithuania Wheat: Record Drives Estimated to All-Time High USDA estimates 2015/16 Lithuania wheat production at 4.4 million metric tons (mmt), 0.48 million or 12 percent higher than last month, and 1.1 mmt or 36 percent higher than the revised 2014/15 estimate. is estimated at 0.84 million hectares (mha), up 0.12 mha or 17 percent from last month and up 0.13 mha or 18 percent from last year. is estimated at 5.24 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha) compared to 5.45 mt/ha last month, 4.56 mt/ha last year and 4.11 mt/ha for the 5-year average. Lithuania is one of the 28 member states of the European Union (EU). USDA estimates total 2015/16 EU wheat production at mmt from 26.8 mha. Lithuania is the southernmost of the three Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), located northeast of Poland. Lithuanian trade benefits from its position along the Baltic Sea coast, which lowers transportation costs and increases access to world markets. Lithuania is the largest agricultural producer in the Baltics and wheat is its primary cereal crop. While winter wheat typically dominates total wheat production, a considerable amount of spring wheat is also planted. Wheat area has steadily increased in Lithuania since 2006/07, when it was just 0.34 mha, less than half of the 2015/16 level. and production have also climbed significantly since the 2006/07 yield level of 2.35 mt/ha and the production level of 0.8 mmt. The revised USDA estimates reflect the most recent data from the Lithuanian Statistics Office. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov.) Malaysia Palm Oil: El Niño Drought Hinders Palm Oil and 6

7 Malaysia s 2015/16 palm oil production is forecast at 19.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5 million tons or 2.5 percent from last month and down 1.9 percent from last year. Harvested (mature) oil palm area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 2.4 percent from last year. The forecast yield of 4.06 tons per hectare is down 4.2 percent from last year. The current strong El Niño weather pattern suppressed rainfall over a wide swath of Southeast Asia during the northern hemisphere summer in Rainfall in Malaysia s prime palm oil growing areas was below normal from June through October The resulting dryness reduced yield prospects during the current 2015/16 marketing year (October 2015 through September 2016). The full impact of drought on palm oil yield typically occurs 4 to12 months after the event. Ongoing labor shortages are also contributing to reduced harvest tonnage, with ripe fresh fruit bunches (FFB) going unharvested and rotting in the fields. In 2012 the eastern producing regions reported losses of 5.6 mmt of un-harvested and unprocessed FFB or 1.1 mmt of palm oil owing to a 20 percent shortfall in harvest labor. Labor shortages have become a chronic problem throughout the country, with plantation and construction industries widely affected. Roughly 25 percent of total palm oil area is sown with trees that are less than 10 years of age. These trees are reportedly more resilient to drought than those cultivated a decade or two ago, and are expected to experience less severe yield declines in 2015/16 than during the more severe El Niño-induced drought of 1997/98 when palm oil yields declined approximately 12 percent. (For more information, contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) 7

8 Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-551), March 9, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, April 12, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 8

9 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, PhD and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria, and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria, and Brazil Eastern United States Robert Tetrault

10 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Archives Market and Trade and Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

11 Table 01 Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others Million metric tons--- Wheat /15 prel /16 proj. Feb Mar Coarse Grains 1, /15 prel. 1, /16 proj. Feb 1, Mar 1, Rice, Milled /15 prel /16 proj. Feb Mar Total Grains 2, , /15 prel. 2, , /16 proj. Feb 2, , Mar 2, , Oilseeds /15 prel /16 proj. Feb Mar Cotton /15 prel /16 proj. Feb Mar / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

12 Table 02 Wheat,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada South America Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others and Selected Countries and Regions

13 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union South America Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

14 Table 04 Corn,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent , United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others and Selected Countries and Regions

15 Table 05 Barley,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa South America Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others and Selected Countries and Regions

16 Table 06 Oats,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada South America Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others and Selected Countries and Regions

17 Table 07 Rye,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada South America Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others and Selected Countries and Regions

18 Table 08 Sorghum,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico South America Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others and Selected Countries and Regions

19 Table 09 Rice,, and and Selected Countries and Regions Change in (Metric tons per hectare) 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

20 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and and Selected Countries and Regions (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

21 Table 11 Soybean,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others and Selected Countries and Regions

22 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and (Metric tons per hectare) Change in 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar 2014/15 Feb Mar MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others and Selected Countries and Regions

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