Price & Time Symmetry DENNIS W. WILBORN, SR.

Transcription

1 Price & Time Symmetry DENNIS W. WILBORN, SR.

2 Disclaimer U.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALS O LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS. DON T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION I S BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS TRAINING. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS H AVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESU LTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN E XECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF AN Y, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PRO GRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. ALL MATERIALS PRESENTED ARE FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY. TRADERS SHOULD PAPER TRADE ANY NEW METHOD PRIOR TO RISK OF PERSONAL CAPITAL.

3 Fibonacci Numbers: From Bunnies to Wall Street 1202ish: Leonardo Fibonacci studied mathematical formula and discovered a series of numbers that acts like a natural harmonic function. One of the early uses was an attempt to solve for the propagation ability of rabbits which gave birth to the system of numbers that Fibonacci is known for today. This became known as the Golden Ratio around the irrational number Phi: It seemed that humans subconsciously react around the multiples of the Fibonacci. Charles Dow first observed that stocks tend to retrace 1/3 to 2/3 s of trending moves. Turns out that what Dow observed was price reacting around the Fibonacci retracement numbers of 0.382, 0.50, 0.618

4 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Time: Fibonacci times zones provide general changes in the trend areas in relation to time. Time zones are most appropriate to a long-dated analysis of price variation and are very likely to be of limited value while studying short-dated charts. Retracement: The Fibonacci retracement is the potential retracement of a financial asset's original move in price. Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. Extensions: Levels used in Fibonacci retracement to forecast areas of support or resistance. Extensions consist of all levels drawn beyond the standard 100% level and are used by many traders to determine areas where they will wish to take profits. Arcs and Fans: The Fibonacci fan is a three-line guide originating from the Fibonacci number series. It can assist in identifying the next areas of support and resistance. The zones, indicated by the fan, can forecast areas of retraction in market trends.

5 Fibonacci Numbers: How to Use Them Swing Highs/Lows: Any timeframe. Longer term charts lend themselves to stronger levels and timeframes Look for Groupings: When applying Fibonacci s across multiple timeframes and at different swing high/low combination will result in groupings that may identify more significant levels of support/resistance Do they always work? No, but Fibonacci s do provide clues and ideas on where price action may either slow or reverse.

6 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Arcs and Fans: The Fibonacci fan is a three-line guide originating from the Fibonacci number series. It can assist in identifying the next areas of support and resistance. The zones, indicated by the fan, can forecast areas of retraction in market trends.

7 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Time: Fibonacci times zones provide general changes in the trend areas in relation to time. Time zones are most appropriate to a long-dated analysis of price variation and are very likely to be of limited value while studying shortdated charts.

8 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Retracement: The Fibonacci retracement is the potential retracement of a financial asset's original move in price. Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction.

9 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Retracement:

10 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Extensions: Levels used in Fibonacci retracement to forecast areas of support or resistance. Extensions consist of all levels drawn beyond the standard 100% level and are used by many traders to determine areas where they will wish to take profits. Levels that attract prices 123.6, & 161.8%

11 Fibonacci Numbers: Types of Indicators Extensions:

12 Fibonacci Numbers: Using Retracements, Extensions & Time 1. Provides unseen levels of support or resistance 2. Tends to identify where traders react (time & price) 3. Should be used with other clues (TSI, Momentum, Candles) 4. Failure of a level increases the probability that price will reach the next level 5. Definable targets and stops Live Examples: WOR

13 Fibonacci Numbers: Using Retracements, Extensions & Time 14 Days 14 Days

14 Fibonacci Numbers: Using Retracements, Extensions & Time Swing High Swing Low

15 Fibonacci Numbers: Using Retracements, Extensions & Time Support at 23.6% Retracement

16 Fibonacci Numbers: Using Retracements & Extensions 1. Designing Trades 7/8/16 1. Buy Shares regaining 100% Retracement at T1 = 123.6% Extension at for 3.72% 3. T2 = 138.2% Extension at for 6% 4. Stop 4% or close below 100% retracement Aggressive Entry bouncing from 78.6% retracement

17 The End

18 Clarify, Simplify & Multiply This has been the Motto of Active Trend Trading from the beginning! We continuously work to Clarify & Simplify through refinements to the system to make it objective and easy to both learn and use. The purpose of all presentations is to provide our fellow Active Trend Trader Members a jump start to accelerate progress up the Learning Curve. We welcome suggestions on how to improve the learning process! Trade Wisely & Profitably, Dennis W. Wilborn Founder & Lead Technical Analyst