Beef, Veal and Lamb Report

Transcription

1 Beef, Veal and Lamb Report June 23, 2016 Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef output last week rose 2% and was a whopping 9.2% larger than the same week last year. Cattle slaughter was the biggest for any week in two years. Still, the beef markets have been fairly resilient as of late, especially loins, due to strong retail and food service feature activity. History suggests that sharp loin price declines should be forthcoming. The five-year average move for the choice 180 0x1 strip market during the next seven weeks is a decline of 19.4%. Retail beef prices in May rose.2% from April and were the most expensive in six months, and continued to carry a historically strong premium to chicken and pork. However, they were 5.4% less than Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Lower Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Lower Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Increasing Good Lower 120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Higher 120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Lower 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Lower 121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Higher 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Higher 180 1x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 180 1x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Lower 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Higher 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Lower 193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 50% Trimmings Decreasing Good Higher 65% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Lower Veal Top Round (cap off) Decreasing Good Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association

2 Grains The U.S. crops mostly deteriorated last week due to warmer, dry weather. Still, at 75% rated in good or excellent condition, the corn crop is believed to be off to one of its best starts in the last two decades. The grain markets are overdue for a short term correction lower but the weather will continue to influence prices. Soybeans, bushel Decreasing Good Higher Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Good Lower Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Good Higher Corn, bushel Decreasing Good Higher Crude Corn Oil, lb Decreasing Good Lower High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Good Higher Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Higher Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Steady Good Lower HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Decreasing Good Higher Black Beans, lb Increasing Good Lower Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Lower

3 Dairy U.S. milk production continues to track above year ago levels despite subpar farmer margins. Total U.S. milk output during May was 1.2% larger than last year despite flat growth to the milk cow herd but a 1.2% gain in milk per cow yields. As noted, farmers did not add any head to the herd in May. The recent surge in class III and class IV milk futures suggests solid milk output expansion may persist this summer. The butter market is firm due in part to concerns around supplies for the upcoming holiday season. Butter prices are expected to track below 2015 later this summer. Cheese Barrels (CME) Increasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Increasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Lower Parmesan Cheese Increasing Good Lower Butter (CME) Increasing Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Ample Lower Whey, Dry Increasing Good Lower Class 1 Base Steady Good Lower Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Higher Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Good Lower Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Higher

4 Pork Pork production rose 3.6% last week and was 1.7% larger than the same week last year. Pork production is expected to seasonally expand this summer at its largest levels since From 2009 through 2015, the pork cutout rose by an average of 4% between the second and third quarters of the year. However, in 2009, the pork cutout declined by 1% during that period. This suggests that lower pork prices are likely this summer. Retail pork prices in May fell.3% from April and were the least expensive for the month since 2013 Live Hogs Increasing Ample Higher Sow Decreasing Ample Higher Belly (bacon) Increasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Decreasing Good Higher Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Increasing Good Higher Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Decreasing Good Higher Picnic, untrmd Increasing Good Lower SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher

5 Poultry Chicken production for the week ending June 11 th was.9% larger than the same week last year. Yearto-date broiler slaughter is tracking 1.4% above 2015 while weights are up 1.3%. Chicken output expansion versus 2015 is expected to be tempered this summer due to subpar producer margins. The chicken breast markets are firming. The ARA Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast Market rose last week for the first time for the second full week of June in seven years. History suggests that lower chicken breast prices should be forthcoming. But as output growth is slowed, it could underpin chicken breast prices this summer. Table egg prices remain relatively depressed. This should cause egg supplies to tighten later this year. Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Steady Good Lower Wings (whole) Increasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Lower Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Breast, Bone In Steady Good Lower Breast, Boneless Skinless Increasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (random) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin (sized) Increasing Good Higher Legs (whole) Increasing Good Higher Leg Quarters Decreasing Good Lower Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher Thighs, Bone In Increasing Good Lower Thighs, Boneless Increasing Good Lower Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Short Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Short Lower Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Liquid Whole Eggs Increasing Short Lower Liquid Egg Whites Decreasing Short Lower Liquid Egg Yolks Increasing Short Lower

6 Seafood Snow crab leg prices remain elevated due to the smaller Canadian quotas this year and strong demand from both the U.S. and Japan. The Gulf of St. Lawrence snow crab fishing season has basically culminated with 97% of the quota landed to date. Record wholesale price levels could temper snow crab leg demand during the next several months. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Increasing Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Decreasing Good Higher Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Increasing Good Higher Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Increasing Good Higher Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Steady Good Higher Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Steady Good Lower Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Steady Good Lower

7 Paper and Plastic Product Report Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin Increasing Good Lower 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Decreasing Good Lower Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description May-16 Apr-16 Mar-16 Beef and Veal Increasing Decreasing Increasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Pork Decreasing Increasing Increasing Chicken Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Increasing Increasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Various Markets The USDA is forecasting world coffee output to rise just 1.6% from the prior crop. This should be outpaced by consumption growth which would cause the available supply to tighten and also support prices. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Increasing Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Increasing Good Lower Coffee lb ICE Increasing Good Higher Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Higher Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower

8 Produce The avocado markets remain inflated due to limited supplies coming from Mexico. Avocado imports from Mexico last week declined 25% and were nearly 50% less than the same week last year. Tight avocado supplies are expected to persist during most of July which could be supportive of prices. The lettuce markets have been relatively range-bound as of late despite the abnormally warm temperatures in California. Domestic iceberg lettuce shipments last week were down slightly from the same week last year. Iceberg lettuce prices have averaged lower in July from June in seven of the last nine years. Limes (150 ct) Decreasing Good Higher Lemons (95 ct) Steady Good Lower Lemons (200 ct) Steady Short Higher Honeydew (6 ct) Increasing Good Lower Cantaloupe (15 ct) Steady Good Lower Blueberries (12 ct) Steady Good Lower Strawberries (12 pnt) Decreasing Good Lower Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Increasing Good Higher Bananas (40 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Pineapple (7 ct) Term Increasing Good Higher Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Increasing Short Lower Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Decreasing Short Higher Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Decreasing Short Higher Processing Potato (cwt) Steady Short Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Steady Good Higher Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher Red Onions (25 lb) Term Decreasing Good Higher White Onions (50 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Decreasing Good Lower Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Decreasing Good Higher Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Decreasing Good Lower Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Decreasing Good Lower Green Peppers (lg case) Increasing Good Higher Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Steady Good Higher Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Decreasing Good Lower Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Steady Good Lower Broccoli (14 ct) Decreasing Good Higher Squash (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Higher Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Increasing Good Higher Green Beans (bushel) Increasing Good Higher Spinach (flat 24) Increasing Good Higher Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Steady Good Higher Cucumbers (bushel) Increasing Good Higher Pickles ( ct) Term Decreasing Good Lower Asparagus (sm) Increasing Good Higher Freight (truck CA-Cty Av) Increasing Good Lower

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