World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 8-13 World Agricultural India: Excessive Monsoon Rainfall Raises Concerns for 2013/14 Soybean AFWA/LIS Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation Excess seasonal precipitation across major soybean areas b b i India's 2013/14 soybean production is forecast at a record 12.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 2.5 percent from last month and up approximately 7 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 11.9 million hectares, up 8 percent from last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.03 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month, and down 2.5 percent from last year. India s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions. The major factors shaping the USDA s current forecast are increased plantings and lower-than-expected yields due to excess rainfall across the major soybean growing regions. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). Soybean sowing operations are in progress. The optimal planting period is mid-june to mid-july. According to official Government of India sowing progress reports, at the end of July area sown was at million hectares, representing a 15- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The sown area is nearly 100 percent of USDA s projected area. Early and widespread monsoon rainfall encouraged plantings, resulting in record plantings across the country. The major soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and southeast Rajasthan received significantly above normal precipitation in June and July. The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started a month early and has been characterized as widespread with favorable-toexcess distribution. Overall cumulative rainfall is up 16 percent from the long-term average. The rainfall departures from normal range from 38 percent in North West India, 42 percent in Central India, and 27 in percent South Peninsula. In northeast India, however, cumulative rainfall is down 35 percent. The continued excess rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan is raising major concerns to the yield prospects for soybean. There is general agreement among observers and experts that excess rainfall is likely to result in significantly lower-than-expected yields. Satellite derived indices indicate increased plantings and above vegetative vigor across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and southeast Rajasthan. (For additional information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at ) EU Wheat: Third Best on Record The 2013/14 European Union (EU) wheat crop is estimated at million tons, up 2.8 million tons or 1.9 percent from last month, and up 8.3 million tons or 6.3 percent from last year. The estimated output is 1.5 million tons above the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 26.0 million hectares, similar to last month, but up 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year. The 5-year average for EU wheat area is 26.1 million hectares. is estimated at 5.43 tons per hectare, up from 5.33 last month and up from 5.15 tons last year. The 5-year average yield is 5.36 tons per hectare. Favorable July weather promoted yield potential and reduced growth delays that were incurred earlier in the season. Below normal temperatures prevailed across Europe until mid-april, hindering crop development. During May and June, aboveaverage rainfall saturated soils and slowed field work, but periods of dryness allowed soils to drain. The abundant soil moisture aided grainfill. Aboveaverage July temperatures and mostly dry conditions accelerated crop development and bolstered yield. 2

3 The largest production increase was in Spain where harvesting is now finished after a favorably wet growing season. Spain s production is up 0.8 million tons from last month and up 2.6 million tons from last year to 7.7 million tons. France and Germany, the top two wheat producing countries, had favorable soil moisture and moderate temperatures during July. These beneficial conditions led to production increases of 0.65 million tons in France to 38.6 million, and 0.5 million tons in Germany to 24.2 million. Harvest results in Romania and Bulgaria were better than expected with production up 0.3 million tons to 7.1 million in Romania, and up 0.25 million tons to 4.55 million in Bulgaria. Although yield in the United Kingdom improved during July, the estimated crop of 11.9 million tons remains the lowest since (For additional information, contact Bryan Purcell at ) Kazakhstan Wheat: Outstanding Prospects in the Main Zone USDA forecasts Kazakhstan wheat production for 2013/14 at 17.0 million tons, up 2.5 million tons or 17 percent from last month and up 7.2 million tons or 73 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares against 12.4 million last year. is estimated at 1.36 tons per hectare, up 17 percent from last month and up 72 percent from last year. Spring wheat accounts for about 95 percent of the country s total wheat output, and about 85 percent of the spring wheat is grown in three territories in north-central Kazakhstan. prospects are high following generous July rainfall. The amount of total precipitation from April through July was among the highest in the past 20 years, and conditions in the key production region were favorable as the wheat crop advanced through the critical flowering stage in mid- to late July. The spring-wheat harvest typically begins in late August and is largely complete by the end of September. (For additional information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) Argentina: Dry Weather Hinders Planting USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2013/14 at 12 million tons, down 1 million tons or 8 percent from last month but up 20 percent from last year. is estimated at 3.9 million hectares, down 7 percent from last month but up 11 percent from last year. is forecast at 3.08 tons per hectare, down less than a percent from last month but up 8 percent from last year. 3

4 Dry weather over the last two years in the northwestern provinces of Salta, Tucuman, and Santiago del Estero coupled with a shortage of quality seed in the central regions, limited wheat planting this year, leading to the reduction of expected area. Planting is almost finished in Argentina with the last of the seeding going into the most productive region of southern and western Buenos Aires province. Scattered rains throughout the core of the southern wheatgrowing areas have provided adequate soil moisture for emerging and establishing wheat. Much of the planted crop is at one to three leaves, with just a few very early planted fields just beginning to enter tillering. Ukraine Wheat: Harvest Reports Indicate Above-Average Argentine wheat export taxes and complications with the new pay-back tax break for producers, are limiting grower s enthusiasm for increasing wheat area. (For additional information, contact Denise McWilliams, PhD. at ) USDA forecasts Ukraine wheat production for 2013/14 at 21.5 million tons, up 2.0 million tons or 10 percent from last month and up 5.7 million tons or 36 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 6.5 million hectares, up 0.9 million from last year, which was marked by excessive fall dryness that destroyed over 15 percent of the winter wheat. (Ukraine s winter wheat is planted in the fall and harvested the following summer.) Weather data and satellite imagery indicated deteriorating crop conditions in May following six consecutive weeks of dry weather and unusually high temperatures that depleted subsurface moisture reserves. The crop rebounded substantially during June with the timely arrival of beneficial rain. The harvest began in late June, about two weeks earlier than usual, and reports indicate above-average yields in most regions. Wheat yield for 2013/14 is estimated at 3.31 tons per hectare, up 18 percent from last year and 6 percent above the 5-year average. (For additional information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) Ukraine Corn: Record Harvest Forecast for 2013/14 USDA forecasts Ukraine corn production for 2013/14 at a record 29.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons or 12 percent from last month and up 8.1 million tons or 39 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 4.8 million hectares, up from 4.4 million last year and surpassing the previous record of 4.5 million in 1963/64. Conditions in the main cornproduction region have been generally favorable. Precipitation has been adequate (but not as abundant as in 2011 when yield soared to a record 6.44 tons per hectare), and temperatures have not been excessively high. for 2013/14 is forecast at 6.04 tons per hectare, up 26 percent from last year and 19 percent above the 5-year average. Harvest typically begins in early September. (For additional information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) 4

5 China Rice: Lower Due to Drought in Southern China China s rice production for 2013/14 is estimated at million tons (milled basis), down 1 million tons or nearly 1 percent from last month but equal to last year s record output. The estimated area of 30.6 million hectares is unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million from last year. Planted area has increased steadily over the past 10 years in response to government policies. The estimated yield of 6.68 tons per hectare is down nearly 1 percent from last month but close to the 5-year average. A serious drought in central and southwest China has depleted soil moisture, reduced irrigation supplies, and stressed the late rice and single rice crops, now in the vegetative to heading stages of development. The drought did not affect the early rice crop, which was harvested in July. A preliminary government estimate put the 2013/14 early rice crop at 23.6 million tons (33.7 million, paddy basis), up 1.2 percent from the previous year. The growing conditions for single and late rice in other parts of China have been generally favorable this summer. (For additional information, contact Paulette Sandene at ) China Cotton: Unusual Weather in Major Cotton Regions China s cotton production for 2013/14 is forecast at 33.0 million bales (7.185 million tons), down 3 percent from last month and down 6 percent from last year. The estimated area of 5.1 million hectares is unchanged this month but down 4 percent from last year. Farmers reduced cotton area in eastern China for several reasons: high grain prices, rising production costs, yield volatility, and weak demand. Planted area remained stable in western China. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,409 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year s record yield. The yield revision is based on less-than ideal summer weather in several of China s important cotton regions. Xinjiang province accounts for about 45 percent of China s cotton area and more than 50 percent of total production. It was cooler than normal during June and July in northern Xinjiang, and several locations reported heavy rainfall and hail damage. However, weather conditions in 5

6 southern Xinjiang (China s highest-yielding region) have been generally favorable. Unusually heavy rain in July and August has drenched the cotton crop on the North China Plain, with Hebei and Shandong hit particularly hard. The two provinces account for about 25 percent of total cotton area. Elsewhere, an ongoing drought is affecting the lower Yangtze River Basin and southwest China, where about 15 percent of China s cotton is grown. The crop is currently in the flowering-to boll-formation stage, and Chinese officials have expressed concern about possible yield losses from waterlogging, damaged flowers and bolls, and excess vegetative growth (in the wet areas) and water shortages and heat stress in the drought-impacted areas of the south. The weather during the open-boll and harvesting stages (September and October) will play a critical role in determining China s cotton yield this year. (For additional information, contact Paulette Sandene at ) Canada: Rapeseed Forecast at Record Level USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada rapeseed production at a record level of 15.3 million tons, up 2 percent from last month and nearly 15 percent from last year. is estimated at 7.90 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down nearly 8 percent from last year. is forecast at 1.94 tons per hectare, up nearly 25 percent from last year and 5 percent above the 5-year average. Sufficient precipitation coupled with normal temperatures has advanced crop development despite the late start. Warmer temperatures in the latter part of June and the beginning of July promoted flowering throughout the western prairies. MODIS/NDVI vegetation indices show above average crop vigor and higher than 2009 when record yields were achieved. Recent provincial reports from the major producers--saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba--confirmed NDVI analysis. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan provincial reports rated 85 percent of the crop as good to excellent. Statistics Canada 2013 June Principal Field Crops s reported that planting intentions for rapeseed at 7.97 million hectares, the first decrease in area seeded since Seeded area in both Saskatchewan and Alberta, which comprise roughly 85 percent of total production, are expected to drop 8 and 6.5 percent, respectively. Farmers shifted rapeseed production to crops with lower input costs such as wheat and barley. (For additional information, contact Arnella Trent at ) 6

7 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-520), August 12, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, September 12, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds Starting with this month s publication,, Supply and Distribution (PSD) numbers for the European Union reflect the addition to Croatia to the former EU-27. The European Union includes Croatia in the PSD after 1998/99; therefore, June data in this month s Circular will differ from that published in June

8 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Deputy Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Program Analyst Mary Jackson GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance Crop Analyst Vacant

9 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Europea n Union - - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil - Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others - ---Million metric tons--- Wheat nr 25.0 nr /13 prel nr 23.3 nr /14 proj. Jul nr 24.0 nr Aug nr 24.0 nr Coarse Grains 1, /13 prel. 1, /14 proj. Jul 1, Aug 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /13 prel nr nr /14 proj. Jul nr nr Aug nr nr Total Grains 2, , /13 prel. 2, , /14 proj. Jul 2, , Aug 2, , Oilseeds /13 prel /14 proj. Jul Aug Cotton nr nr nr /13 prel nr nr nr /14 proj. Jul nr nr nr Aug nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

10 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan European Union France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

11 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina European Union France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others

12 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico European Union France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

13 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Russia European Union Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

14 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Russia Canada European Union Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

15 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

16 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt European Union France Italy Others

17 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar European Union Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

18 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan European Union France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

19 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma European Union Italy France Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

20 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and World United States Total Foreign China South Asia Change in 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug 2012/13 Jul Aug MMT Percent MMT Percent India Pakistan Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Greece Spain Sub-Saharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others