World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 1112 World Agricultural Argentina Sunflowers: Planting Slows with Rains in the Pampas Plains Argentina sunseed production for 2012/13 is forecast at 3.6 million tons, down 10 percent from last month but up 8 percent from last year. Heavy autumn rain, particularly in Buenos Aires province, hampered sunflower planting and contributed to an estimated 10percent reduction from last month s area forecast. Sown area is estimated at 1.8 million hectares, down 1 percent from last year. The cool, wet weather has also increased the likelihood of disease. With th e arrival of dry, sunny weather, some farmers may elect to plant warmerseason summer crops like corn or soybeans rather than sunflower. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at ) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 Ukraine Sunseed: Higher Estimated Output for 2011/12 Based on Reported Meal Exports The USDA forecasts Ukraine sunflowerseed output for 2011/12 at a record 10.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 11 percent from last month. The increase is based chiefly on reported exports of sunflowerseed and meal. The revised production estimate reflects the estimated amount of sunflowerseed required for exports and domestic consumption of seed, and the amount of crush required to satisfy the demand for exports and domestic consumption of meal. According to data from the Ukrainian customs service, 3.84 million tons of meal and 0.28 million tons of seed were exported for marketing year 2011/12. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at ) Australia Wheat: Continued Dry Growing Conditions Lower Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 21.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 9 percent from last month, and down 8.5 million or 29 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last year. Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australian wheat producing states at varying times. is forecast below the 5year average. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting belowaverage September through October winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at )

3 Indonesia Palm Oil: Growth to Continue for 2012/13 Indonesia s 2011/12 palm oil production is forecast at 25.9 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month. s were higher than previously expected, leading to increased exports and domestic ending stocks. The USDA also increased the 2012/13 forecast to a record 28.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month. Indonesia has recorded consistently strong annual trend yield growth, and the revised 2012/13 estimate reflects expected continued growth. It is estimated that approximately 50 percent of all land sown to oil palm in the country is less than 8 years of age. of oil palm plantings increase steadily up to 8 years of age, plateau from 10 to 20 years and then decline after that. The large population of young trees with strongly growing output potential is expected to underpin continued future national yield growth. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at ). European Union Corn: Estimated Corn Output Down 1.0 Million Tons with Harvest Underway European Union (EU) corn production for 2012/13 is estimated at 54.6 million tons, down 1.0 million or 1.7 percent from last month and down 11.5 million or 17 percent from last year. is estimated at 9.0 million hectares, virtually unchanged from last month, but up 0.2 million or 1.7 percent from last year. is estimated at 6.10 tons per hectare (t/ha) compared to 6.18 t/ha last month, and down 19 percent from 7.51 t/ha last year. Corn production and yield in the EU are estimated to be the lowest since the 2007/08 drought year. As harvest continues, more data are becoming available. Romania s production is estimated down 0.3 million tons to 6.0 million. Romania s corn decrease is the result of a 0.1millionhectare drop in harvested area, created by droughtabandoned land. The country s corn crop has suffered from both extreme heat and drought. Hungary and Italy s estimates have also been revised down by another 0.3 million and 0.2 million tons, respectively, due to summer heat and dryness. Poland s corn crop however, is estimated to be 0.5 million tons higher than last month s estimate because of favorable summer weather and adequate rainfall. Other significant EU corn changes for 2012/13 include 0.2millionton drops in both Spain and Austria, as well as a 0.3millionton drop in the Czech Republic, based on official statistics.(for additional information please contact Bryan Purcell at )

4 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Branch, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE512), November 09, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, December 11, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds

5 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Deputy Director Paul Provance USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/SIA Manager Curt Reynolds, PhD Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD Sr. Agricultural Economist Vacant Program Analyst Mary Jackson GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina and Columbia Denise McWilliams, PhD Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU12 countries Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent and Bangladesh East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene India, Pakistan and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD SubSaharan Africa, Mexico Curt Reynolds, PhD Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela and Central America Robert Tetrault Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD Iran and Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins Eastern United States Paul Provance Crop Analyst/ Vacant Global Special Projects Manager Crop Analyst Vacant

6 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico EU27 Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 23.9 nr /12 prel nr 25.0 nr /13 proj. Oct nr 23.0 nr Nov nr 23.3 nr Coarse Grains 1, /12 prel. 1, /13 proj. Oct 1, Nov 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /12 prel nr nr /13 proj. Oct nr nr Nov nr nr Total Grains 2, , /12 prel. 2, , /13 proj. Oct 2, , Nov 2, , Oilseeds /12 prel /13 proj. Oct Nov Cotton nr nr nr /12 prel nr nr nr /13 proj. Oct nr nr nr Nov nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

7 Table 02 Wheat,, and World Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan EU France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

8 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and World United States Total Foreign Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent , , , China South America Brazil Argentina EU France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others ,

9 Table 04 Corn,, and World United States Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico EU France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

10 Table 05 Barley,, and World Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Russia EU Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

11 Table 06 Oats,, and World 9.87 Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Russia Canada EU Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

12 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign EU Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

13 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt EU France Italy Others

14 World Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar EU Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

15 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan EU France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

16 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma EU Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

17 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and World Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia EU Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others

18 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Ghana Sudan Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Guinea Cameroon Mali Malawi Cote d'ivoire Uganda Central African Republic Benin Mozambique Niger South Africa Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Egypt Mexico Others

19 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and World Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Moldova Kazakhstan South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia China EU France Hungary Spain Italy Slovakia South Asia India Pakistan Turkey South Africa Burma Serbia Canada Australia Others

20 Table 15 Rapeseed,, and World Change in 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov 2011/12 Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent United States Total Foreign EU Germany France United Kingdom Poland Czech Republic Denmark Hungary Romania Slovakia Sweden Lithuania Latvia Austria Finland Estonia China South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Canada Australia Former Soviet Union Ukraine Russia Belarus Paraguay Others

21 Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Prel. 2011/ /13 Proj. From last month Change in From last year Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent Oilseed, Copra Philippines Indonesia India Vietnam Mexico Papua New Guinea Thailand Sri Lanka Mozambique Cote d'ivoire World Oilseed, Palm Kernel Indonesia Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Papua New Guinea Colombia Cote d'ivoire Brazil Cameroon Ecuador World Oil, Palm Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Colombia Nigeria Papua New Guinea Ecuador Cote d'ivoire Brazil Honduras World